Agregador de canales de noticias

“La música derriba fronteras y BTS se ha convertido en un fenómeno mundial que contribuye a que Corea sea más conocida en todo el mundo. Recientemente, han viajado hasta las Naciones Unidas con el Presidente Moon Jae-in para participar en la Asamblea General. Pero hay muchos otros grupos que también son muy conocidos por los jóvenes españoles, por eso queríamos aprovechar el día de Corea para hacerles un guiño a todos ellos”, asegura el Embajador de Corea en España, Bahk Sahnghoon.

El género de música más escuchado en 2020

El K-POP se ha convertido, desde su surgimiento en los 90, en un fenómeno que trasciende la música, creando un movimiento cultural seguido por millones de personas en todo el mundo, creando escuela en muchos otros países. En 2020 fue el género musical más escuchado en Youtube y este verano el Centro Cultural Coreano ha celebrado la novena edición del concurso de KPOP en España, ejemplos de que estamos ante un fenómeno imparable.

 

Ports:

Despite mounting shipping delays and cargo backlogs, the busiest U.S. port complex shuts its gates for hours on most days and remains closed on Sundays. Meanwhile, major ports in Asia and Europe have operated round-the-clock for years.

“With the current work schedule you have two big ports operating at 60%-70% of their capacity,” said Uffe Ostergaard, president of the North America region for German boxship operator Hapag-Lloyd AG . “That’s a huge operational disadvantage.”

Generations:

$2 trillion of wealth flows from Baby Boomers to Millennials per year through inheritance, according to Fundstrat estimates.

Over the next 20 years, Millennials will inherit $76 trillion from previous generations.

Millennials tend to prefer higher-risk assets like stocks and crypto.

Baby Boomers are becoming a smaller relative share of the pool of wealth, meaning Millennial asset preferences will fuel a structural shift.

Shortages:

The cost of the intractable semiconductor shortage has ballooned by more than 90%, pushing the total hit to 2021 revenue for the world’s automakers to $210 billion.

That’s the latest dire forecast from AlixPartners, which predicts global automakers will build 7.7 million fewer vehicles due to the chip crisis this year.

Industry:

An estimated 321,000 Americans now work in the [cannabis] industry, a 32 percent increase from last year, the report found, making legal marijuana one of the nation’s fastest-growing sectors. In other words: The United States now has more legal cannabis workers than dentists, paramedics or electrical engineers.

Market share:

Google is so successful that it’s the most searched for term on Microsoft Corp.’s Bing search engine, the company’s lawyer told a European Union court on Tuesday.

“We have submitted evidence showing that the most common search query on Bing is by far Google,” Alfonso Lamadrid, a lawyer for the Alphabet Inc. unit, said at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg.

Have a good weekend.

La criptodivisa más popular se ha disparado hoy por encima del 10%, tras ganar ayer un 5,63%. Las declaraciones de la Reserva Federal de EEUU, que anunció que no prohibirá el uso de estas monedas virtuales, han servido de impulso. Leer

Getting on the right side of a bull market can change your life forever for the better.

Recently, subscribers to my premium research service, Katusa’s Resource Opportunities (KRO), had the opportunity to be part of a stock that – at its peak – was up over 1,547% last week since our entry. (More on that later).

In fact, over a dozen subscribers wrote in that they made 6 figures on that trade in less than 22 months.

Hundreds of others have sent in positive comments to us on the gains they made on just a few of our most recent recommendations. – and we’re truly grateful for all the kind words!

Fortunes like that are made making risk adjusted bets for asymmetric gains.

Risk Adjusted bets for Asymmetric Gains: doesn’t that sound good and sophisticated? Do you know what that even means? Let me explain.

Getting cocky and over leveraging can lead to financial ruin in all markets.

Before you invest, you must understand the mathematical risks associated to the position and the upside of the gain for the risk you are taking.

And then determine, does the pay off warrant the risk.

Right now, the commodity market is incredibly volatile with some sectors nearing their yearly lows.

Meanwhile, other sectors are firing on all cylinders with no signs of slowing down.
Let’s get you up to speed on what I am watching closely right now.

Gold Action

Gold dropped below $1,800 per ounce last week and hit as low as $1,732/oz which sent precious metal stocks abruptly lower.

• A simple indicator I like to use is the percentage of companies trading new 52-week highs and lows for the sector.

As you can see from the chart below, the number of companies near 52-week lows has jumped to nearly 50% in the span of a few months.

The gravitational pull towards the 52-week lows has caused the gold producers and developers to far surpass the declines of bullion.

I have long said that strong balance sheets, scale and margins are rewarded in the gold sector these days, which is proven by the significant underperformance of the junior producers.

Furthermore, passive funds love exposure without operating risk, which again is proven through the royalty group’s dominant outperformance.

The KRO subscribers have been positioned in both the number one performing precious metal royalty company and the number 1 performing energy royalty company in the world.

Considering gold is down 5.4% in September, our precious metal royalty company is up over 25%, and the most liquid and most traded royalty company in its peer group.

Heading in the opposite direction of the precious metals market is the energy market…

Watch For Europe’s Cold Winter: The Colder War

Natural gas, oil, coal and uranium have been on a tear.

Energy prices are soaring around the world. Underinvestment and supply bottlenecks have sent the prices of natural gas and coal skyward in rapid fashion.

• Natural gas inventories in Europe are low and in true Putin fashion, Russia has yet to play all their cards and has left Europe in a tangle.

Watch Gazprom very closely and you will see Putin making some strategic geopolitical moves this winter.

If it is a cold winter, this will further drain natural gas inventory levels and send the prices of natural gas and coal higher.

You can see that natural gas prices have soared in Europe in response to these low inventory levels.

Soaring gas prices mean that it can be economically viable for the socialist green Europe to burn coal to generate electricity. Which is precisely what they are doing.

The price of coal in Europe has gone up 150% this year and is now selling at a 13-year high.

Australian Newcastle coal is up 250%, flirting with 2008 highs. Low Chinese stockpiles coupled with a political fight with Australia has sent domestic prices up 100% for the year while stockpiles remain low.

This week China’s state electricity council stated they would procure coal “at any price”. You can see the price rises in coal below…

There are multiple derivative affects of high natural gas and coal prices.

For one, industries which use natural gas as an input such fertilizer producers are seeing their input costs skyrocket. CF Industries one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers even went so far as to shut down a UK production facility. Average selling prices for urea, an ammonia-based fertilizer have increased 50% since the summer.

Manufacturers will try to pass these costs on to the farmer, who will in turn pass the costs down onto you, the consumer.

Carbon Coming Alive

With more coal being burned we are seeing the price of pollution go skyward.

You can see this through the lens of the European Union Allowance permit, which is compliance market carbon credit. This year we’ve seen prices soar by 80% and by 20% just in the last month.

Note: Many people are asking where to get Carbon prices. The best free resource is www.carboncredits.com and their Carbon Pricing Dashboard.

In North America, carbon is getting more attention…

This week CIBC, one of Canada’s largest banks completed its first successful transaction facilitating a trade between the Nature Conservancy of Canada and a UK commercial bank. I do believe this is just the tip of the iceberg for the carbon market.

Net-zero targets have soared, with over 3,000 companies and over $88 trillion now committed to net-zero emissions.

Take a moment, to consider the magnitude of that dollar figure and the significance of the number of companies pledging these targets.

• KRO readers can look forward to an in-depth outlook on where the puck is going in the carbon market in the coming October issue.

The KRO was the first newsletter in the world to cover the carbon sector and subscribers are sitting on triple digit gains already.

Uranium Breather

Elsewhere in the baseload power sector, life is being breathed into the uranium market. Uranium prices touched $50 a pound; a level not seen since 2012.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust continues to build its uranium stockpile and chew up spot market inventory.

To date the trust has raised in excess of CAD$500 million and acquired nearly 10 million pounds of uranium in the spot market.

This major move in uranium has sent the share prices of many uranium stocks ripping higher.

And KRO subscribers have been positioned in the number 1 uranium stock year- to-date…

The commodity markets are experiencing incredible volatility these days.

Markets are moving quickly and its critical to stay on the cusp of what is happening if you want to be successful. I’ve been laser focused on the natural resource sector for over 20 years. Spent millions of dollars and learned painful lessons on patience and especially what to avoid.

As a professional fund manager, I’ve had had countless big wins but I’ve learned many hard lessons along the way.

Right now, I believe I am on the cusp of some very big scores just like our big bets in uranium…

And we are very, very early in one of the most exciting sectors of my lifetime.

It all comes to ahead in exactly one month from today, where World War Zero will start.

I get it that not everybody can afford my research. I come from humble roots, was a teacher early in my career and that’s why I go out of my way to provide research for free.

Here are two very valuable research reports that paying subscribers have had access too.

1. The exclusive interview between me and a gold legend – David Garofalo.
2. Your Education Primer on the Royalty Business – featuring Gold Royalty Corp (GROY.NYSE)

Use them. They are valuable and they may help you make money.

Regards,

Marin Katusa

The post Commodities Rising appeared first on Katusa Research.

Fifteen years ago – almost to the day – I sat in a meeting room at my London-based hedge fund, across the table from the management team behind the world’s biggest IPO. They’d come halfway across the world on a global roadshow to educate investors about their company. There was nothing fancy about this company, no cutting edge tech or innovative business model. It was a bank – the largest in China. After years of Communist party ownership, it was opening itself up to private capital.

The meeting itself was a formality. We wanted stock and they knew we wanted stock. An interpreter sat alongside the most senior executive and questions and answers were routed via her. They told us about their operational reforms, about their financial restructuring and about their strategy to grow fee income. But the investment case was simple: this was the biggest bank in China, home to almost a fifth of the deposits in the country, and an investment in it would grant exposure to the rapid growth of the …

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Hola a todos, quería comentar que Selfbank ha comenzado a cargar comisiones de custodia en los fondos de inversión.
Ha sido toda una sorpresa, han cobrado de golpe las comisiones de los últimos meses. Lo digo porque si sois clientes como yo, que no entro casi nunca, os podéis encontrar con este tema.
Desconozco si es en todos los fondos, yo solo tengo Amundi EMU y Amundi Word (si queréis paso el ISIN exacto) y me lo están cobrando.

Saludos y gracias a todos los participantes.

Estadísticas: Publicado por ScaryMoney — 01 Oct 2021, 14:12

      @luigimaranello

Las mujeres son uno de los principales impulsores de la recuperación económica de la nación, indicó Wang, añadiendo que por ello las industrias con personal principalmente femenino tienen prioridad a la hora de recibir asistencia a través de medidas como la capacitación en técnicas digitales, las extensiones de préstamos y los subsidios salariales.

Además, se han introducido varias medidas destinadas a ayudar a las mujeres a gestionar el equilibrio entre el trabajo y la vida personal durante la pandemia, señaló Wang mientras citaba los servicios de atención domiciliaria las 24 horas para los trabajadores médicos de primera línea y los subsidios de cuarentena.

Lin Ming-Jen, profesora de economía de la Universidad Nacional de Taiwan, con sede en Taipei, fue anunciada durante el foro como coganadora del Premio de Investigación de Mujeres Saludables y Economías Saludables del APEC 2021.

Según Lin, el estudio de su equipo reveló el impacto perjudicial que experimentan las mujeres que se desempeñan como cuidadoras principales de padres ancianos en relación con su participación en la fuerza laboral y sus ingresos. La profesora recomendó a los responsables de la toma de decisiones que presten atención a esta correlación y desarrollen políticas que alivien la carga a través de compromisos de apoyo personalizados.

Presidido por la ministra para las Mujeres de Nueva Zelanda, Jan Tinetti, el evento de un día de duración contó con representantes de 21 economías miembros del APEC que dialogaron sobre temas clave como la brecha salarial de género, la segregación ocupacional y la representación de las mujeres en el comercio.

Estas declaraciones se produjeron en el discurso de apertura de Wu durante una conferencia en línea organizada por el Proyecto sobre Taiwan en la Región del Indo-Pacífico de la Institución Hoover, con sede en Estados Unidos. Otros participantes fueron Richard Bush, expresidente del Instituto Americano en Taiwan (AIT, siglas en inglés); y el exdirector del AIT, Brent Christensen.

Según Wu, el expansionismo de China se ha convertido en una competencia estratégica global, desde Hong Kong y Xinjiang hasta los mares de China Oriental y Meridional, así como el Indo-Pacífico y Europa.

Esta competencia también tiene lugar en el frente comercial y económico, dijo Wu. El reciente intento de China de convertirse en miembro del Tratado Integral y Progresista de Asociación Transpacífico es visto por algunos analistas como una maniobra para evitar que la nación y Estados Unidos participen en el bloque comercial, añadió Wu.

Como fuerza del bien en el mundo, remarcó Wu, Taiwan está haciendo contribuciones significativas a través de la estrecha cooperación con EE. UU. en causas importantes como la lucha contra el terrorismo, la promoción de la democracia y los derechos humanos, las sanciones a Corea del Norte y la libertad religiosa.

Taiwan también trabaja con EE. UU. y Japón a través de la plataforma del Marco Global de Cooperación y Capacitación para ayudar a los países del Indo-Pacífico en una amplia gama de asuntos, aseveró Wu, añadiendo que el Gobierno continuará fortaleciendo sus asociaciones con otras democracias en el futuro.

Durante la sesión de preguntas y respuestas, Wu afirmó que el Gobierno sigue comprometido con la profundización de los lazos con EE. UU. en materia de economía y comercio, colaboración en materia de seguridad y área diplomática. También instó a EE. UU. a iniciar conversaciones sobre un acuerdo comercial bilateral o digital con Taiwan.

Si Internet revolucionó la economía, las plataformas de streaming están transformando el sector del entretenimiento. Como consecuencia, hay un conjunto de industrias complementarias que están viviendo este cambio. Una de ellas es los estudios de audiencias. Nielsen ha liderado la industria de los ratings durante años – de hecho, fue quien lo inventó -, pero […]

L'entrada El modelo de streaming amenaza el negocio de estudios de audiencia de Nielsen ha aparegut primer a The Money Glory.

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3. McDonald’s, Burger King y el modelo de negocio del sector del fast food

Hola todos, gracias por pasaros por aquí. Bueno, pues por fin hemos conseguido celebrar el evento. Ha sido una época de bastante tensión. Quería que la gente lo pasara bien y así ha sido. Ha sido una boda pequeña, fuimos sólo 30 personas y quería que todo el mundo estuviera bien atendido y así ha sido. Nunca hicimos la boda para ganar dinero, sino para formalizar una relación, pero algo de dinero ha quedado, y pensamos en hacer unos arreglos en la casa IF de cara al invierno. Queremos cambiar la puerta de entrada y trasera de forma que quede mejor aislada de cara al invierno.

Supongo que irá por rachas, pero hace 1 mes tenía muchas ganas de hacer cosas, reparar cosas etc… pero me he venido abajo, que supongo que será el cansancio acumulado. No tengo ganas de hacer nada, lo único que quiero es dormir y descansar.

Por el lado de la bolsa tengo acumulados los dividendos de IMB, NGY, VOD, NG, BATS y SSE para reinvertir, muy probablemente en BATS de nuevo. La veo bastante infravalorada, aunque el cambio de euro/libra no está donde me gustaría, pero bueno, a largo plazo no está mal del todo sobre 0,86 euro/libra.

Por otro lado hice como sabéis mi aportación al SP500, esta vez a un precio inferior al del mes pasado.

En cuanto al nivel macro Europa, y sobre todo España, está cayendo en la temida estanflación, poco crecimiento económico sumado a una inflación alta. Es un problema porque hay que reducir la masa monetaria para controlar la inflación, pero a nada que la toques la economía se resentirá. El problema es decidir qué hacer, si soportar esa inflación sin reducir masa monetaria, o reducirla a riesgo de poner en riesgo la economía. Difícil decisión. Lo que está claro es que a medida que vayan sacando dinero del sistema las probabilidades de un crash crecen. Por otro lado de cosas, los crash se producen en un momento en el que nadie se lo espera como ocurrió con el COVID, por lo que de momento no creo que pase.

En cuanto a nuestra economía hemos notado mucho el no tener que pagar alquiler, ni luz, ni agua, ni gas. Se ha reducido a gastar dinero en comida, algo de gasoil e internet vía satélite. De 1500 euros de gastos en Madrid cada comienzo de mes unos 600 o 700 euros aquí. Se ha notado mucho la diferencia. Esa presión de pagar el alquiler cada mes, esas noticias anunciando enormes subidas de la luz y gas ahora mismo no nos afectan. Digamos que el vivir sin deudas nos hace respirar más tranquilos.

Con la instalación eléctrica que tenemos llevamos viviendo aquí ya 3 meses y de momento fenomenal. Por si acaso pondré 4 placas más de 390W más por si acaso, ya que en invierno los días nublados son frecuentes y así evitamos quedarnos sin luz.

Y en cuanto a la liquidez… pues sigue siendo excesiva, pero si por dividendos cubro mis gastos, ¿para qué usarla?. Sé que la inflación se la va comiendo poco a poco, pero no me quiero ver en un crash sin liquidez, prefiero esperar el tiempo que haga falta para que cuando ocurra lo que tenga que ocurrir, y poder aprovechar la situación, no ya con acciones, sino indexándome al SP como hasta ahora al WORLD directamente para ser más eficaz fiscalmente hablando. Lo que sí que voy a hacer a final de año es vender 2000 euros del fondo de inversión de Cobas para pasarlo al Plan de Pensiones del mismo Cobas y poder tener esa pequeña ventaja fiscal, que no es mucho ya, pero bueno. Y me gustaría de cara a futuro ir pasando el PP de Cobas a uno indexado al SP500 en ING. He perdido demasiado tiempo, y el coste de oportunidad ha sido enorme. Son 5 años perdidos, y es demasiado tiempo. A veces lo más sencillo es lo más efectivo.

Lo que quiero ahora es vivir tranquilo, ya he hecho el colegio, fui a la universidad, trabajé, ahorré y ahora cubro mis gastos con mis ingresos pasivos. Digamos que soy muy afortunado porque puedo disponer de todo mi tiempo, y el tiempo no se compra con dinero. Estoy en esa situación de levantarte y decir… ¿y ahora qué?. Ahora mismo no tengo ganas de nada, pero espero que me vuelvan las ganas de hacer algo, aunque sólo sea repoblar el campo de cara a futuro.

Creo que lo que marca la diferencia es tener la casa pagada. Si consigues tener eso, y el coche pagados, tienes muchísimo ganado. Si encima reduces gastos como luz y gas se incrementa tu independencia. La mayoría de la gente trabaja para pagar esas dos cosas, pero principalmente la casa. El precio de las casas en las grandes ciudades es enorme, y trabajar 30 o 40 años para pagarlas me parece una barbaridad que algún día alguien se dará cuenta de que no tiene sentido.

Además, a la persona que trabaja se la machaca vía impuestos. Si trabaja necesita vivir mayoritariamente en grandes ciudades, luego tiene que coger el coche para ir a trabajar. Tiene que pagar la gasolina a 1,5 euros/litro (estando el barril en 75 dólares), tiene que pagar ropa, comida, impuestos, impuestos y más impuestos… para llegar a final de mes a cero. No tiene sentido. Yo no lo veo. Aquel que vive sin deudas (aunque sean al 0%) es una persona libre y puede dirigir su vida. Yo no vivo bien con deudas, prefiero vivir sin deudas.

No sé, no me hagáis mucho caso porque llevo unos días regulares, un poco apático y con pocas ganas. Parece como que se me han gastado las pilas cuando antes había mil cosas por hacer. Seguramente será el estrés que hemos pasado con el tema de la boda.

We all know that people are susceptible to soft forms of influence. Why do you think companies spend tons of money on wining and dining their clients and why more and more companies introduce rules that their employees cannot accept gifts worth more than a certain amount?

But in the world of internet purchases this social component is increasingly reduced to a couple of emails and phone calls. In many instances, particularly since the onset of the pandemic, buyers often don’t even know how the person they order from looks like. And this leads to worse outcomes for both the buyer and the seller.

A new study tried to assess the impact facial attractiveness has on the decisions of both buyers and sellers. When I read about that study, I first thought: “Here we go again. Another study that shows that attractive people are treated better than unattractive people.” But the results are more interesting than that.

The study asked participants in a lab experiment to take the role of a wholeseller, or a retail customer of the wholeseller. First, the wholeseller was asked to quote a price for the goods to sell. The retailer, once he has been quoted a price is then asked to place an order choosing how many items to order. Depending on the experimental setup, either the retailer or the wholeseller or both would see the face of their counterpart in the transaction or they would not see a face at all. Furthermore, the faces shown to them were standardised and could be either attractive or unattractive, male or female.

Faces shown to the participants in the experiment

a.image2.image-link.image2-648-661 { padding-bottom: 98.01192842942346%; padding-bottom: min(98.01192842942346%, 647.8588469184891px); width: 100%; height: 0; } a.image2.image-link.image2-648-661 img { max-width: 661px; max-height: 647.8588469184891px; }

Source: Starostyuk et al. (2021)

The first  result, and probably the least surprising, is that if people were shown faces of their counterparts in the negotiation gave significantly better conditions, that is the wholesellers were offering lower prices and the retailers ordered more items. We humans are social animals and dealing with a human (even if it is just a face on an email as in the experiment) makes us more socially minded and both sides in a trade get a better deal.

The experiment didn’t test for a difference between faces shown in an email or on a screen and personal interaction, but I am pretty sure that the work-from-home crowd does get a worse deal than the people who personally meet with their clients. Similarly, I am pretty sure that when it comes to promotions and other career benefits, the work-from-home crowd that are more remote and have fewer in person interactions with their colleagues and bosses will get fewer promotions and lower bonuses.

In any case, besides the obvious benefits of seeing someone’s face, there are also gender and attractiveness effects. First, women get a better deal, but that is not dependent on the attractiveness of a woman. Wholesellers offer a lower price to unattractive and attractive women alike and retailers order a larger quantity from women than they do from men.

But aside from this gender effect there is also an attractiveness effect, though that effect is less pronounced  than the pure gender effect and – at least in the experiment – it seems to work better for attractive men than for attractive women. Essentially, attractive women are quoted pretty much the same price by the wholeseller than unattractive women, but attractive men are quoted a lower price than unattractive men. And when it comes to the retailer’s orders it is again the attractive men that receive the bigger orders, not the attractive women. The beauty premium seems real, but it is ironically mostly a male beauty premium, not a female beauty premium.

Sabadell lidera las ganancias con un alza del 26%. Indra, Bankinter, Acciona y Red Eléctrica completa el quinteto ganador en un Ibex bajista. Leer

Success has a nasty tendency to increase confidence more than ability. The longer it lasts, and the more it was tied to some degree of serendipity, the truer that becomes.

It’s why getting rich and staying rich are different skills. And why most competitive advantages have a shelf life. Jason Zweig put it: “Being right is the enemy of staying right because it leads you to forget the way the world works.”

It is of course possible to indefinitely maintain whatever skills brought you initial success. Lots of people and a handful of businesses have done it.

But when success is maintained for a long period the greatest skill often isn’t technical, or even specific to your trade. It’s identifying and resisting a few dangerous feelings that can nuzzle their way in after you’ve achieved any level of success.

A few of the big ones:

1. The decline of paranoia that made you successful to begin with.

A common irony goes like this:

• Paranoia leads to success because it keeps you on your toes.

• But paranoia is stressful, so you abandon it quickly once you achieve success.

• Now you’ve abandoned what made you successful and you begin to decline – which is even more stressful.

It happens in business, investing, careers, relationships – all over the place.

Michael Moritz of Sequoia was once asked how his investment firm has thrived for 40 years. “We’ve always been afraid of going out of business,” was his answer.

It’s a rare response in a world where most successful people step back, take stock of all they’ve achieved, and assume they can not only breathe a sigh of relief but that their skills will run on autopilot.

A dangerous situation is when your goals (achieving enough success to relax) counter your skills (focus, paranoia, persistence). It hits you when you feel like past hard work entitles you to a break without realizing the cost of that break, however much it might be necessary and deserved. It’s part of why people who quit while they’re ahead are so admirable – it’s often not so much that they gave up, but that they’re aware of what made them successful and when that trait begins to wane.

2. Finding other peoples’ flaws more than you look for your own improvements.

A sad twist to Orville and Wilbur Wrights’ life is that they didn’t make much money from their invention. They were nearly irrelevant as soon as the airplane caught on.

Part of the reason the Wrights fell behind so quickly was that while competitors spent their time designing better planes the Wrights spent their time suing people for patent infringement.

Chasing competitors through court became an obsession. At one point in 1916 Orville demanded that every airplane produced anywhere in the world pay him a $10,000 royalty, high enough that no manufacturer could afford it – which was the point. Competitors, particularly those in France and Germany, ignored the demand and the Wrights spun their wheels in court for years while competitors spent their time designing better planes. By the time the patent wars were over, the Wrights’ flyer was obsolete.

A version of this happens when you see an investor spending all day on Twitter explaining why their competitors are wrong. I often wonder when they find time to figure out whether they, themselves, are right.

Charlie Munger says you shouldn’t have an opinion on something unless you understand the opposing side’s view as well as they do. It’s good advice, but it’s easy to take it too far. It’s almost always easier to find a flaw in a system than it is to discover why or how something might work, in the same way that it’s easier to destroy a relationship than build one.

A dangerous feeling is when your position on a topic centers around criticizing the other side versus evaluating why you’re right – or even better, why you might be wrong.

It’s a seductive trap because pointing out flaws is so much easier and more convincing than finding the obscure force that will make something work. It often signals that you don’t actually understand a topic but you want to be involved, and finding other people’s flaws is all you can come up with because you don’t have your own position to analyze. This may have been true for the Wrights, who were genius in the early engineering days of the aircraft but lacked the skills needed to bring it to the next level.

3. The feeling of mastering a topic, particularly if that topic adapts and evolves.

The first law of hard work is that you expect there to be a payoff. How could it be any other way?

But a dangerous feeling occurs when you want the payoff of years of hard work to be an assumption that you’ve mastered a topic. Or that you don’t need to update your views because you already spent years of hard work learning those views.

You see it all the time in so many industries. Veterans fall behind the younger generation because if veterans admitted that they had to adapt to what the younger generation is doing they’d feel like the hard work they put over their career was for nothing.

Even if you know your field evolves, the idea that what you learned in the past may no longer be relevant is so painful that it’s easy to reject. The longer you’ve been in a field the truer that becomes. It’s hard for a 50-year veteran to admit that a rookie might know as much as he does. But if what the veteran learned 30 or 40 years ago is no longer relevant, it can be true. And the rookie may be more aware of what he doesn’t know, while the veteran is iron-clad sure of his beliefs because he’s worked hard and expects a payoff.

Some things never change, and learning them in one era can help you in the next. But the more your field evolves – the more it involves people’s decisions – the smaller that set of learnings is, and the more you need to fight the urge to think that your long-term experience means you now permanently understand how the field works.

Investor Dean Williams put it: “Expertise is great, but it has a bad side effect. It tends to create an inability to accept new ideas.”

More on this topic:

• Why Competitive Advantages Die

• Casualties of Perfection

• Counterintuitive Competitive Advantages

Las necesidades de las empresas tras la pandemia y la carencia de profesionales especializados cambian la perspectiva de la automatización. Leer

Las necesidades de las empresas tras la pandemia y la carencia de profesionales especializados cambian la perspectiva de la automatización. Leer