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Deale es una start up con sede en Barcelona que ha desarrollado una plataforma digital para automatizar las fusiones y adquisiciones en Europa. La compañía, focalizada en empresas de entre 3 y 40 millones de euros de facturación, acaba de cerrar una ronda de financiación para finalizar el lanzamiento de sus aplicaciones. Leer

La 'start up' barcelonesa levanta 11 millones de euros en una operación en la que también participa Alta LS para consolidar su expansión internacional y perfeccionar su herramienta de triage médico. Leer

Tras la corrección del mes de septiembre, comienza el último trimestre del año. Un trimestre que ahora mismo apunta a aceleración del crecimiento y la inflación (Escenario 2) en EEUU. De hecho, la renta fija ha venido cotizando este escenario en las últimas semanas.

Como sabéis los que habéis hecho la Guía de Inversión, el dólar no es un activo que lo haga bien en estas condiciones económicas, y las pistas que nos ha dado el USDCNH esta semana van en esa dirección. La renta variable entró hace dos semanas en un punto donde la volatilidad le está jugando una mala pasada y aún no se ha corregido del todo, por lo que puede necesitar aún unos días para formar el suelo de esta corrección.

Pero sin que los tipos superen los máximos del año, el mercado High Yield no se ponga nervioso, o nos acerquemos al 2T 2022 donde cambiaremos seguro de Escenario económico, debemos seguir con el sesgo positivo. Eso sí, ya con una visión de corto plazo y siempre vigilando la volatilidad.  

Si quieres tener un análisis diario de los mercados apúntate al seguimiento del DIARIO DE MERCADOS:

https://www.bolsaconcabeza.com/diario-de-mercados

¿Quieres saber qué son los Escenarios de Inversión y qué activos lo hacen mejor en cada uno de ellos? Apúntate a la Guía de inversión:

https://www.bolsaconcabeza.com/gu%C3%ADa-de-inversi%C3%B3n

Twitter: @bolsaconcabeza

Dehaze cree que hay que incentivar el empleo, y aunque es partidario de las ayudas, opina que deben reducirse de "forma inteligente y equilibrada" para igualarlas a la oferta y la demanda laboral, pues ciertos sectores no encuentran candidatos dispuestos a trabajar. Leer

Buenas tardes a todos. Esta tarde andaba yo estudiando un poco sobre inversiones y he ido a parar al canal de value school, donde tras ver varios videos he llegado a uno titulado , como proteger el patrimonio familiar.
Me ha parecido muy interesante y eso me ha llevado a comprar el libro, gestión de patrimonios wealth de Stuart E Lucas.
Me ha parecido interesante comprarlo, no por mi patrimonio que es muy pequeño, ridículo pongamos, sino porque creo que independientemente del patrimonio que uno tenga es interesante saber o tener esa información, a pesar de no tener la posibilidad de tener un asesor patrimonial en condiciones, o un asesor fiable. Todos sabemos que los bancos gentilmente nos ofrecen sus asesores, pero también sabemos eso de, cuidado con poner al lobo a vigilar tus ovejas.
En uno de los capítulos se comenta que el paso más importante y más complicado, en la gestión de un patrimonio es la elecciiónde la firma o firmas con las que vas a trabajar.
He pensado que si un día por H o por B dispusiese de un patrimonio medianamente importante no tengo ni la más remota idea de que firmas fiables existen o si los afamados gestores de fondos como el sr Paramés o el Sr Iván se dedican también a estos menesteres.

Entonces he hecho una busqueda en +dividendos pero no he encontrado nada al respecto.
Se Habla mucho de gestores de fondos concretos y sus habilidades pero no de gestores globales de patrimonios, que no se si a la vez son los mismos.

He abierto este hilo con la intención de reunir en el la información útil que cada uno tenga a bien compartir .
No es cuestión de hacer propaganda de casas concretas, si no de conocer como o con quien trabajaría uno si dispusiese de un patrimonio necesitado de asesoría profesional seria y fiable, por si algún día, por ejemplo lo necesitas y no tengas que correr en búsqueda y captura, que las prisas son malas.
No sea que un día nos toque la primitiva, heredemos ,de un tío de América, gestionemos bien nuestros pequeños capitales o cualquier evento cisne negro positivo nos lanza a manejar capitales importantes.
Saludos

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Episodio de Value Investing FM en el que Adrián y Paco hacemos un repaso de nuestro mes y comentamos las noticias más importantes de los mercados en septiembre de 2021.

La entrada Resumen del Mes – Septiembre 2021 aparece primero en Academia de Inversión - Aprende value investing desde cero.

 

Originally Published: October 2021 The US debt ceiling is in the news again due to Congressional gridlock, along with the possibility of a US sovereign default and the unintuitive idea of the US Treasury Department minting a trillion-dollar platinum coin to bypass the problem. This article breaks down some of the nuances involved in this […]

Este martes se cumplirán diez años de la muerte del cofundador de Apple Steve Jobs (1955-2011), una década en la que, pese a no haber sacado al mercado dispositivos revolucionarios de la talla del iPhone o el iPad, la firma se ha consolidado como la más valiosa del mundo. Leer

En plena batalla de las eléctricas contra el Gobierno por la intervención decretada por la vicepresidenta Teresa Ribera, el socialista Antonio Miguel Carmona será nombrado vicepresidente de Iberdrola España, filial del grupo Iberdrola que preside Ignacio Galán, y cuyo presidente es Francisco Martínez Córcoles y consejea delegada Ángeles Santamaría. Un giro en su carrera, tras abandonar hace algunos años la política activa de primera línea.

El político y economista ha sido también profesor en diferentes universidades españolas y extranjeras y en los últimos años actuaba como tertuliano en diferentes cadenas de televisión.

Carmona ha ligado su actividad política en el PSOE a Madrid, tanto a nivel autonómico como municipal. Entre sus últimas participaciones en política está la aspiración a la alcaldía de Madrid en las elecciones que terminaron encumbrando a Manuela Carmena. El que será nuevo vicepresidente de la compañía en España fue elegido diputado por el PSOE en la Asamblea de Madrid en dos etapas: entre junio de 1999 y diciembre de 2002, y entre junio de 2011 y junio de 2015.

Posteriormente, fue elegido concejal en el Ayuntamiento de Madrid en las elecciones municipales de 2015, permaneciendo cuatro años como edil en el consistorio presidido entonces por la alcaldesa Manuela Carmena.

In December, it will be 5 years since I started this blog.

In the last 5 years, my views have been tested and have evolved.

I have been investing since the late ’90s, but a bulk of my knowledge has been accrued over the last 5 years as a result of writing and experience.

I thought it would be a good idea to write down the things that I have learned about investing in the last 5 years.

• You should measure your performance and write down what you think.

The process of writing about my personal investments have been eye opening. I recommend that everyone does this. Even if you don’t do it publicly on a blog, at least do it personally.

I have been following markets and investing since the late 1990’s, but it was only until 2016 that I started actually writing everything down and rigorously measuring my performance.

The key advantage of this is that you cannot lie to yourself, which the brain constantly does.

Sometimes, I’ll read through an old post and not even remember that I thought a particular thing – particularly things that I was wrong about. When it’s in writing and you read it, you have to confront your thesis and rigorously measure whether that opinion was correct.

The brain has a funny way of only remembering the wins and forgetting the losses and bad calls.

Writing will make you a better investor because it will force you to be honest with yourself. Your brain is constantly trying to fool you to protect your ego. Writing circumvents this.

• Many quantitative value strategies amount to the small cap value factor, which can be accessed cheaply via an ETF like $SLYV or $VBR. For the more aggressive, there are strategies like $QVAL and $DEEP.

I started this blog after spending years reading about quantitative value investing and spending a lot of time back testing various value-oriented stock screens.

I set out to implement my own version of Ben Graham’s preferred stock screen: low P/E and low debt/equity investing. I added my own twists on this and some qualitative views.

What I failed to accept was that the out-performance of value stock screens amounts to owning a small cap value fund. I would have been better off buying Vanguard’s small cap value ETF and would have had exposure to the same factor.

In fact, the performance of Vanguard’s small cap value fund winds up outperforming many many of the screens I was testing. More importantly, buying & holding a small cap value fund is less prone to the kind of behavioral errors you’ll experience by actually managing a 20-30 cheap stock portfolio.

If I simply owned a small value ETF, I would have had exposure to statistical cheapness but I wouldn’t have struggled as much with the implementation. Getting into the depths of some of these junky companies led to behavioral errors. I sold a Florida insurer because a hurricane was imminent even though the losses were already priced in. I sold GameStop because the private equity deal fell through. I made many mistakes because I was too in the weeds.

The nice thing about an ETF is that you can just let the strategy work. Getting into the weeds actually detracted from my performance and led to behavioral errors. An ETF can simply be put on a shelf for years and the result will be much the same.

The big small value ETF’s like VBR and SLYV give exposure to the factor. Things like QVAL and DEEP are higher octane.

• You can’t time the market.

I took Warren Buffett’s quote ‘be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ to heart. Reduce risk when markets are hot. Get in on risk when markets aren’t frothy.

I figured this could be accomplished with two metrics: market cap/GDP and the yield curve. Market cap/GDP tells you how overvalued the market is. The yield curve is a warning sign that a recession is imminent.

This didn’t work for me. My conclusion is that the market cannot be timed and doing so leads to behavioral errors.

It’s easy to say “something unprecedented happened” and that’s why this didn’t work. Unfortunately, something unprecedented is always happening in markets and is a part of the game. Every method that has a perfect track record will stop working once investors know about it and try to implement it.

Trying to find this solution is seductive, but it is folly.

• Factor exposure is critical to dissecting returns.

Often, when you hear about a great investor, you can dissect their returns by analyzing their factor exposure and their asset allocation.

For instance, many of the heroes of the 2000’s was simply long small cap value. Many of the heroes of the 2010’s was simply long large cap growth.

The superstars will take credit for their out-performance, but I don’t believe it’s real. They were simply in the right place at the right time. They ought to get some credit for being in the right place at the right time, but not as much as we give them.

• Asset allocation should be the focus for most investors.

When I started this blog, I thought only asset allocation that made sense was 100% stocks – particularly statistically cheap stocks. I no longer think that this is true.

Not everyone is comfortable with lost decades and a 50% drawdown every 15 years, for instance. That’s the track record of stocks.

This blog represented money I set aside to buy cheap stocks. The rest of my money was in a real soup of random ETF’s and stocks – most of which had a value focus.

I set out in 2018 to organize ‘the rest’ of my money into something more consistent and systematic. This turned out to be a critical exercise.

That journey led me to develop the weird portfolio. I’m lucky that I developed this approach going into 2020. For this allocation, I didn’t allow myself to get active – to pick and choose which assets would outperform.

This asset allocation would up out-performing the account that I track on this blog – which is my ‘active’ money.

These asset allocation decisions are critical for investors and can help generate a more consistent rate of return more attuned to their needs.

Everyone needs to figure out what asset allocation they are comfortable with and will meet their needs, but I think that this particular decision is more critical than I ever imagined.

• Looking for moats & quality is not a waste of time.

5 years ago, I thought that buying statistical bargains was the only option. I now think that a quantitative approach is best implemented through an ETF.

Meanwhile, I scoffed at people who thought they could identify ‘quality’ and I thought that they were deluding themselves.

Sure, it’s quality now, but it will just mean revert and you’re crazy to think you can find a good company.

These days, when buying individual stocks, I think that it is important to find quality companies.

I was confronted with this through my own errors buying individual value situations. Because I was always waiting for the other shoe to drop with the economy, I would sell cheap companies as soon as they experienced trouble.

The stocks I bought were not ‘long term’ situations and I intuitively understood this.

The problem is – if it’s not a long-term situation – you need to get the timing right. I could never quite get that timing right.

Rather than completely give up on this ‘active’ account that I track on the blog, I decided to adjust my approach. I’m still looking for value, but I’m looking for value situations that I would be comfortable holding for the long term.

The only way I’ll be able to hold a company through a drawdown is if I actually believe the firm. What do you do with an airline or steel company when it looks like the economy is about to collapse? Tough question. Meanwhile, owning something with a moat – a defense contractor like General Dynamics – is something I’m actually capable of doing.

When buying individual stocks, I want to own the sort of firm that I would be comfortable holding for a very long time.

I used to think this was an impossible pursuit, but the more I’ve read and experienced with stocks the more I have changed my mind. Some key influences on this journey were the work of Pat Dorsey, Terry Smith, and – from the Twitter verse – Lawrence Hamtil.

• Everyone needs to figure out their own approach.

5 years ago, I thought there was one true path to investing – and that path was buying statistically cheap stocks.

I no longer think that this is the case. For some people, flipping deep value will work for them. For others, coffee canning growth stocks will work.

For me, an asset allocation approach with ETF’s solved many of my issues. Having a side portfolio with the ability to buy individual stocks helped me, as well.

Everyone needs to figure out their own approach. Everyone has different risk tolerances and beliefs.

The most important thing is finding an approach that you can actually stick with. It’s a different journey for everyone.

• Savings rates trump everything.

In my 20’s, I got myself into a bind with debt. I focused and worked in extreme ways to dig myself out of it.

In my 30’s (which are now almost over), I carried over the same intensity I had towards paying off debt and harnessed it towards saving money.

5 years ago, I didn’t quite appreciate how much money I had saved. I was more focused on my CAGR and less on my savings rate. My savings rate was already high at that point – but I never appreciated that those frugal behaviors were so critical.

I can’t understate the impact that my high savings rate had on my life. More importantly, I can’t understate the amount of peace this has brought to me. Indeed, the best thing about money is not having to worry about money.

I think back to the days when I was in debt and would be in a constant state of panic & worry (particularly after a period of homelessness) – constantly worried about losing my job, where I would live if I lost my job, how I would pay for food this week, etc.

I don’t have those worries, anymore. It’s freeing.

I remember thinking things in my mid-20’s like “I wish I had an apartment, a few thousand saved, and no debt.” That was literally all I wanted back then. I have now wildly exceeded those modest wishes.

I used to look back on the years I accrued debt with regret, but now I feel fortunate that I experienced them.

If I didn’t go through the experience of living out of my car, I probably would still foolishly waste my money. Those hard times taught me important lessons about money those other folks simply can’t understand because they didn’t live through it.

The amount of money I’ve saved since those days has exceeded my wildest expectations. The reason I’ve gotten there is frugality and focusing on savings. I’ve succeeded in this arena due to this focus on saving money, not due to any investing acumen.

Savings rate is more important than CAGR. If you’re not saving and living beneath your means, then it doesn’t matter how much you make in investing. You’re going to blow it on lifestyle choices.

Indexing? Growth? Value? It doesn’t matter if you’re not saving money and living beneath your means. Without savings, financial knowledge is wasted.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Read the full disclaimer.

Hi Guys,

We are using Alphacam 2020 including automation manager. I would like to automate our process where by we only route nested sheets with square panels.

Process in Alphacam I would be:

- Input csv file with number of sheets & length & width & thickness & ordernumber
- automatically generate squares & cutout paths (using parametric sketches)
- nest these squares incl toolpaths into sheets database
- output all to default post processor
- generate reports and labels for the sheets

I think this should be possible with automation manager and parametric sketches but I cannot find where to start of how to link automation manager to parametric sketches function.

Thanks in advance!
Alan

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The post These Are the Goods appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Con la subida de los mercados frontera, el Perpe Global Portfolio consiguió cerrar la semana ligeramente en positivo frente a la caída del 1.5% del MSCI AC World EUR.

Considero que la bajada de los emergentes debería frenarse para hacerlo mejor que los desarrollados en las próximas semanas. Esto mismo aplicaría a los países de ASEAN, que aumento un 5% este semana, liquidando totalmente la posición de efectivo.

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I'm already confident that one day I will reach financial independence. But what will I do then? There are so many options to pursue!

The post Financial independence and my plans appeared first on European Dividend Growth Investor.

The Art of Doing Nothing

I didn’t do a single trade this quarter.

I just let everything sit.

It was great.

I believe that this is the first time this has occurred in the history of this blog.

Overall, my portfolio is up 13.61% YTD. It’s not bad considering that 28% of the portfolio is in long term treasuries and gold.

Currently, this is the composition of the account that I track on this blog:

Note that the above results are not YTD, but from my purchase price.

I haven’t changed any allocations or done any trades this quarter. I’m letting my individual stock picks sit and I’m letting the weird portfolio do its work.

Weird YTD

If you’re unfamiliar with the weird portfolio, you can read a cliff notes version of it here.

YTD, the ‘offense’ assets are ripping and the defensive assets are struggling.

This is as it is supposed to be. If the economy were to take a dive, I would expect this situation to reverse.

I see everyone arguing about what’s going to happen to the macro-economy and I cannot bring myself to care about their predictions. I’m totally comfortable having a bulk of my money in the weird portfolio because it has something that will do well no matter what happens.

Is inflation going to rage? Ok. I have gold and real estate.

Is the inflation truly transitory and simply a result of supply chain issues? Ok. I have long term treasuries, which should benefit from deflation.

Is the economy going to continue going gangbusters? The ‘offense’ slice of the portfolio should be fine.

Will the Delta variant and Fed tapering cause a downturn? Treasuries ought to save the day.

I just don’t care about this stuff any more.

That’s the kind of serenity that this sort of portfolio brings.

Substack

I have been negligent with my sub-stack this quarter. I need to get back into that habit.

My actual job continues to be insane after my promotion and I just haven’t had the time or mental energy to do deep dives into companies.

Another reason for my negligence is the overvaluation of the market. Every company that I look at is so insanely overvalued relative to its history that I can’t get particularly excited about the project.

The purpose, of course, is to have the work done on companies before a downturn in the market – or, alternatively, when one of these companies experiences a temporary problem that makes the price attractive.

I’ve done the work on many companies and I’ll know an opportunity when I see it. There aren’t any opportunities, right now. I need to get back into the habit of updating this on a regular basis.

Hopefully I pick this up, again.

But . . . don’t expect any buys. The typical company I’m looking at is nearly 50% overvalued relative to its history. I’m not putting a dime into that sort of situation. The weird portfolio is a much superior alternative to that kind of set-up.

Books

I spent a lot of time with Anne Rice’s first three Vampire Chronicles books this quarter.

Interview with the Vampire

The Vampire Lestat

Queen of the Damned

They were all fantastic. They were also far removed from Finance – which was the point.

On one level, the books are just a rip roaring adventure through the supernatural. This is particularly true once the story is told from Lestat’s POV in book #2. Louis (the protagonist of book #1) is a bit emo and morose. He feels damned and doesn’t want to be a vampire. In contrast, Lestat positively loves the adventure that he’s on.

On a deeper level, the books explore deep themes about life and death, good and evil. Stories about vampires who live forever and feed on us is a great template to explore those concepts. There were multiple times I had to put the books down because something in them blew my mind so much.

Additionally, I love the books because they’re about vampires who are genuinely terrifying. These aren’t vampires that are going to fall in love with you. They’re certainly not going to go to high school or sparkle. They’re actual, blood sucking, monsters.

Here is an example of a passage that blew my mind and made me think:

I highly recommend these books if you’re into something a little supernatural. It’s certainly the right time of year for that.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Read the full disclaimer.

El seno carotídeo es una zona de la carótida llena de receptores para la presión sanguínea.

En las artes marciales el seno carotídeo se conoce desde hace cientos de años como un punto vital ( ju,ja!!), ya que un golpe ahí ( ¡Toma malvado!), provoca un síncope (Ayyy!), el cerebro lo interpreta como un exceso de presión sanguínea, provocando un desmayo en una persona sana y papeletas para cosas peores sino se está sano de todo. (UUUfffff).

Es uno de los tres trucos que conviene conocer y tener entrenado por si algún día necesitas usarlo.

En un enfrentamiento, cuanto antes se ponga fin al asunto, menores son los riesgos de sufrir daños.

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Destacando en el nasdaq 100 por el ratio pavito:

PAYX   ORLY   MSFT   EXC   CSCO   ADP   GOOGL   GOOG   Regresa!! TXN

Se salen de la lista INTU y ASML, las vemos en un momento, puesto que como todas las que vamos a ver hoy, han roto lo que no debían y por tanto en mi opinión, desde ese momento, ya no se puede estar con ellas.

Destacando por ser Riquiña:

COST    PEP

COST, que la vemos junto con otras, ha roto lo que no debía.

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Esta es la primera semana de este bendito 2021, que en el Nasdaq 100, todas las acciones de las que vamos a hablar han roto lo que no debían.  Sólo se puede hablar de desgracias, de momento, de mini-desgracias.

Las cosas cambian y todo da muchas vueltas, pero a lo largo de esta semana que ya ha finalizado, unas antes y otras después, estas 5 acciones de las que paso a comentar, han tocado lo que las controlaba.

Alguna todavía se mantiene en alguna lista, otras no.  Vemos: ASML & COST & IDXX & GOOGL & INTU

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ASML (ASML HOLDING) semanal. Esta llevaba varios meses funcionando, pero esta semana tocó lo que la controlaba, que en su caso, desde hace un tiempo era la línea azulada….

….si uno en vez de salirse en ese momento, se queda pintando la mona, puede haber asistido al espectáculo de ver como en la misma semana, tras tocar azul se ha ido directamente a la línea roja.

Entre unas cosas y otras ha cogido unas pintas bien feas.

Todo puede dar mil vueltas, pero, primero ASML, para poder pensar en comprarla, tendría que volver a la lista, en segundo lugar el Nasdaq 100 tendría que tener números por debajo de 110.

Mientras no suceda todo esto, hay que olvidarse, en mi opinión, tanto de ASML, como de todas las que vamos a ver, y de cualquier acción del Nasdaq 100 que tropiece con esto o con aquello.

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COST (Costco Wholesale) semanal. Otra acción que llevaba unos meses funcionando, y otra acción que terminó por ponerse en fase de exceso y por tanto a ser controlada por la línea azulada….

...esta semana la ha tocado y toca, olvidarse de ella de momento.

Ya se verá si este de momento son unas semanas, unos meses o unos años.

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IDXX (IDEXX LABORATORIES) semanal. Esta acción paso de no hacer casi nada, a disparse más a lo loco que ASML, que es otra acción de la misma cosecha, llegó un momento que entró en fase de exceso….

...y no contenta con ello, dilató a lo bestia ese precio que tenía ahí.

Al final tanto exceso y tanto rollo se le ha caido encima de la cabecita, esta semana han tocado la línea azulada y aquí, desde ese instante, en mi opinión, de momento, ya no se pinta nada.

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GOOGL (Alphabet class A) semanal. Yo pasé de esta cuando apareció en la lista, entre otras cosas porque apareció con una dilatación de un preso sin resolver y encima en fase de exceso, el tema es que estaba en fase de exceso controlada por una línea azulada que en esta semana se ha tocado, podría repetir lo dicho en las anteriores, pero entonces voy a parecer un lorito.

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INTU (Intuit inc) semanal. Esta, al igual que la anterior, es una acción de la que pasé desde que apareció en escena, también estaba en fase de exceso y también ha puesto fin a esa fase y por tanto lo mismo que he dicho en todas las otras acciones de las que acabo de hablar, es válido para esta.