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Today’s Animal Spirits is presented by Masterworks: Go to Masterworks.io to learn more about investing in the art market. We discuss: Will supply chains ruin Christmas? Investors have been spoiled of late Why do investors own way more stocks than they did in the past Why do so many rich old investors call for market crashes? Why were endowment returns so high over the last year? There has never been a better time t...

Hii, does anyone have manual and wiring diagram for Brother TC 228

Buenas, hace unos años que tenia una viejita buck 112 two dot por el "cajón desastre" , es del primer modelo con los característicos cantos a 90grados , el caso es que tenia la hoja tan gastada que no había manera de hacer nada por ella salvo cambiarla.

Este es uno de los modelos más emblemáticos en USA y famoso por haber salido en alguna película como kill bill por ejemplo, además es uno de mis preferidos.Así que he buscado una hoja nueva de 112 arriesgándome a que no fuese compatible , por suerte para mí la hoja de las 112 actual es la misma que esta vieja que por el marcaje Buck he fechado 1974-1980.

Vamos con las fotos espero que os guste, ha sido sencillo pero valia la pena y a mi parecer el resultado es bueno, el marcaje no coincide con el mango pero ha quedado como nueva ,funcional 100% y bonita.

Saludos.

Además de los ya existentes en la subdirección (Tribu de Cliente, Cuidado de Cliente, Productos, Administración y Excelencia Operacional, Blanqueo y Siniestros y Reclamaciones), Josep Celaya liderará tres departamentos de nueva creación: Data, Experiencia digital de Cliente y Usuario y Pensiones. Unos nuevos equipos que cumplen la premisa de cumplir con las prioridades estratégicas de la Compañía con el dato y la digitalización como aliados de primer nivel.

“Nationale-Nederlanden es una de las compañías mejor gestionadas del sector. Me incorporo a un gran equipo con un proyecto ambicioso al que espero poder contribuir convirtiendo a Nationale-Nederlanden en un referente en experiencia del cliente en el mercado de protección”, señala Josep.

De la extensa y sólida trayectoria profesional de Josep Celaya, cabe destacar su participación en proyectos de transformación digital, un marcado perfil innovador con experiencia en el mundo de las Insurtech, dominio de metodologías como Design Thinking, Agile, Lean Startup, y un amplio conocimiento del mundo del marketing digital.

Josep ha ocupado puestos de dirección en conocidas compañías aseguradoras, como Verti y Mapfre, liderando, en esta última, el programa de transformación y gestión del modelo de innovación del Grupo Mapfre a nivel global. En su última etapa, como director general de Negocio Digital y miembro del equipo de dirección de DKV-ERGO, ha gestionado áreas clave, como el Canal Digital, la unidad de negocio de Productos y Servicios de Salud Digitales.

Licenciado en Economía por la Universidad de Barcelona y con un Máster Internacional en Administración de Empresas por la ESADE de Barcelona y la HEC de París, Celaya aportará su visión y profundo conocimiento del sector dentro de esta nueva estructura y estrategia corporativas y significará un paso más en la ambición de Nationale-Nederlanden de marcar la diferencia en experiencia de cliente dentro del mercado de protección, alineado con el propósito de la Compañía de ayudar a cuidar de lo que más importa.

Permite a los clientes personalizar totalmente la cartera de forma gratuita desde 10.000 euros. Leer

Este trío de ganadores registra ganancias anuales desde al menos 2016. Durante este ejercicio, acumulan alzas de entre el 5% y el 22%. Son opciones claras de inversión para la mayoría de los analistas, con potenciales alcistas de entre el 22% y el 35%. Leer

Las acciones de Indra se anotaron ayer un 2,05%, hasta los 9,20 euros, en una jornada en la que la empresa recibió una mejora de valoración por parte de Renta 4 que le da recorrido hasta los 12,50 euros. Leer

Lo primero que debe aclararse es que los políticos jamás podrán lograr frenar el supuesto CC. Lo segundo, que la subida de costes y precios en el mundo, con escasez de materias primas y energía - y pronto de bienes de consumo - y la subida en pico de los precios, se deben a que todos los países han adoptado con frenesí consignas y calendarios para acabar con una idea que es un simple fantasma. Supongo que se ha hecho así porque eso daría muchos votos, pero cuando los electores vean lo que se le se viene encima (subida del coste de la vida, dificultad o imposibilidad de acceso a bienes hasta hoy accesibles, inviernos duros, aumento  en flecha del paro, y un largo etc...), la cosecha de votos ya no será tan preciosa. 
Hay una larga cadena de decisiones absurdas en todo el mundo que explican el despropósito descrito. Pero la raíz, como dice Janet Daley, del Telegraph, es el abrazo febril con el que los gobiernos se han atado a dicha teoría. 
Sin embargo, hay medios que anuncian que los últimos estudios demuestran que no hay ninguna urgencia en acabar con el CC. 

“Una carta abierta a los canadienses explica que los mejores conocimientos científicos del reciente informe IPCC AR6 muestran que la emergencia climática ha terminado y que tenemos tiempo, por lo que los compromisos de NetZero y los impuestos al carbono pueden cancelarse, dice Friends of Science Society. El tema del 18º Evento Anual en línea, gratuito y en dos partes de Friends of Science es "Los políticos no pueden detener el cambio climático" con el Dr. Guus Berkhout y el autor Marc Morano. La carta de Friends of Science se refiere a una revisión del informe de Ciencias Físicas del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC) de Roger Pielke, Jr. Señala que en el informe reciente del IPCC, a diferencia de los anteriores, un escenario futuro conocido como RCP8.5 no es visto ya como nuestro futuro "probable". Esto significa que la emergencia climática ha terminado. Si se aplica a la realidad y se utiliza como un caso "como de costumbre", el RCP8.5 es una simulación tremendamente exagerada que fue motivo de preocupación, lo que provocó reclamos de una emergencia climática. RCP8.5 es uno de los cuatro escenarios formalmente conocidos como vías de concentración representativas que se desarrollaron para la investigación climática y que nunca fueron concebidas como "vías" de políticas.”

En la próxima reunión a celebrar en Glasgow, podría tomarse esta pista como lo que es, un anuncio tranquilizador, o bien como un motivo de tensión y batalla entre los gobierno allí representados. Quien sabe. Sólo sabemos la talla mediocre de nuestros políticos de hoy...
Y también sabemos con certeza casi absoluta, visto lo que está pasando, que vivimos los comienzos de tiempos tenebrosos, de escasez de todo con inflación sin poderse parar, ansiedad y tensión, algo que no hemos conocido en nuestra vida (por suerte) y que si siguen insistiendo en la lucha contra el CC será nuestra vida diaria. La lucha contra el hambre, que estaba avanzando, retrocederá, y los conflictos se harán diarios. 
Greta Thumberg ya está en la lucha por su obsesión, 

La lucha sigue”: los jóvenes retoman las protestas contra la crisis climática Después de un año y medio de pandemia, las protestas contra el calentamiento global vuelven a 16 ciudades españolas y otras 1.500 localidades en todo el mundo.

Parece que les hemos inoculado el veneno a nuestros jóvenes con una propaganda mucho más eficaz que la del sentido común.
La que quiere ser el líder mundial de esta lucha contra el CC es la UE, pues como dice Víctor Díaz en Inbestia (altamente recomendable):

Quizá un objetivo de este conjunto de medidas sea contribuir a posicionar a la UE en el mundo, de tal forma que la política medioambiental sea la excusa para lograr ambiciones geopolíticas globales. Tristemente, algo así como tratar de figurar en algo ante la incapacidad de destacar en algo verdaderamente significativo y global, como la innovación, tecnología, tamaño empresarial o unicornios. Lo que viene a suponer tratar de sustituir su incapacidad geopolítica global por influencia regulatoria, lo que en realidad supone un signo de debilidad ante la incapacidad para poder ejercer un papel geopolítico trascendental en algún otro aspecto global importante.”

Repito: los problemas que vivimos - y que se ahondarán - se deben a este absurdo movimiento que no ha tenido en cuenta las consecuencias de querer cambiar algo tan importante como la energía sin que haya alternativas reales en las fuentes. Las fuentes alternativas de hoy son energías subvencionadas. ¿Y quién las subvenciona? Por supuesto, el consumidor, como demuestra Clemente Polo.WordPress.com:

• En tercer lugar, debería aclarar a los consumidores por qué tenemos que pagar los ‘Incentivos a las energías renovables, cogeneración y residuos’ y ‘Otros costes regulados (Incluida la anualidad del déficit)’ que, si bien ahora no figuran en las facturas más recientes de forma explícita, aunque con toda seguridad siguen ahí, sí aparecían en el apartado de ‘Costes regulados’ en las facturas anteriores al 31 de mayo. Como consumidor aspiro a que se me facture la electricidad producida por centrales eficientes y que los incentivos a las energías renovables sean asumidos por el Estado y de la UE, si esas políticas imponen elevan los precios de la electricidad.

• En cuarto lugar, me gustaría saber quién soporta los descuentos de entre un 25% y 50% en la factura de electricidad que otorga el Bono Social a los consumidores vulnerables, porque, al igual que los incentivos a las energías renovables ese coste debería recaer sobre el Estado, no sobre los consumidores que seguimos pagando puntualmente nuestra cada vez más asfixiante factura. La solidaridad a golpe de decreto está muy bien, pero el coste de debería recaer sobre los Presupuestos Generales del Estado.

Over the past week, Chinese military aircraft have entered Taiwan’s defence airspace (which is not the same as its national airspace, by the way) no less than four times. Some aeroplanes even exited Taiwan’s defence airspace along the Bahi Channel which is of extreme geopolitical importance. The Bashi Channel connects the Pacific with the South China Sea and is the main shipping route for cargo ships between East Asia and the West Coast of the United States as well as the location of several main undersea cables that are the foundation of global communication systems.

This was clearly intended as a show of force to the world. Does it mean that we are witnessing the start of an escalating conflict that might end in a military conflict or a blockade of the South China Sea? I think not. At least not yet.

But it reminds me of crucial mistakes that contributed to the outbreak of World War I. Back in 1898, Germany had the world’s most formidable land army but a weak navy. Meanwhile, the British Empire’s global influence rested on the unassailable might of the Royal Navy. In 1898, the second-worst political leader Germany ever had, Kaiser Wilhelm II, was no longer advised by the political genius of Otto von Bismarck and decided to try to challenge the British Empire. Under Admiral von Tirpitz, German military expenditures were directed mostly to the navy in order to build more and more modern ships that could challenge British supremacy on sea.

While military expenditures overall remained largely constant, this German pivot led to an arms race between the British and the Germans over the coming decade that would sour British political leaders to Germany and tipped British sympathies in favour of France and Russia which ended in the Triple Entente and British involvement in World War I on the side of France and Russia.

Military expenditure as share of total government expenditure pre-World War I

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Source: Eloranta 2005. Note System total = 16 largest military powers.

Today, China has the world’s largest army by conscription and the People’s Liberation Army is possibly the world’s mightiest land army. Meanwhile, the US Navy and Air Force are unassailable and guarantee US military supremacy around the globe. But while official military expenditure as a share of total government expenditure is declining, the Chinese are rapidly modernising their navy and air force and have entered an arms race with the United States in crucial 21st weapon technologies like drones, submarines, and military AI.

Military expenditure as a share of total government expenditure

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Source: World Bank

Today, China’s navy and air force are too weak to challenge the United States and launch an outright assault on Taiwan or a blockade of the island. But in my view, China is catching up quickly and I wouldn‘t be surprised if, within this decade, China’s military can achieve parity with the United States on a regional basis.

And once that is achieved, the room for error is dramatically reduced.

Note that the United States has just suffered a massive defeat with its botched exit from Afghanistan after a long and costly war that couldn’t be won. US military supremacy in the world is increasingly questioned due to its military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Similarly, the early losses of the British Army against a relatively untrained and unsophisticated army of farmers in the Second Boer War marked the end of unquestioned military supremacy of the British Empire. And let’s not forget the rather embarrassing ‘victory’ of the British in Afghanistan in 1880 or the need for an alliance of eight western armies to defeat the Boxer Rebellion in 1900.

It is only a matter of time until a rising Chinese military might miscalculate and decide to test US resolve to defend Taiwan. Just like the British Empire didn’t have a formal treaty with France and Russia to come to their aid should they be attacked by Germany, Taiwan and the United States have no formal defence alliance either. Chinese military leaders may think that the United States would shy away from military confrontation and thus make a crucial mistake that could lead to a rapid escalation of tensions to the point of war.

But as I said above, I think we are not at that point, yet. So far, Chinese leadership has been cautious not to escalate the situation too much to cross any red lines. But with waning US military leadership and a declining power gap in the South China Sea these red lines will become fainter over time.

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you Masterworks. For more information go to Masterworks.io/Animal to learn more On today’s show we discuss: Will supply shortages ruin the holidays? Investors are spoiled  Endowment returns Start-ups Does inflation mean progress? “What does price mean when there’s no supply?” Zillow isn’t buying all of the homes on your block iBuyers Homes are becoming ...

The post Animal Spirits: Unaffordable Homes appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

¿En qué fondos de inversión ve mejores oportunidades? ¿Dónde están las mejores oportunidades del mercado en Europa, en Estados Unidos o Asia? Víctor Alvargonzález, socio fundador de Nextep Finance, responde a sus dudas hoy a partir de las 11 horas. Leer

La caída del servicio pone de relieve la gran dependencia de millones de ciudadanos y empresas de la compañía, cuestionada por sus prácticas de negocio. Leer

The winners have made it easier to create pure drugs

Hundreds of thousands were victimised across 70 years

I recently experienced two very different Sundays. The first was a modern-day version of Planes, Trains, and Automobiles as I attempted to navigate my way home from a trip to the Midwest. The second consisted of a 5am wakeup thanks to my younger son, a lunch that was disliked by both boys, and an afternoon driving my older son field-to-field as he officially entered youth sports mania. Yet as different as these days were, they paled in comparison to the things I read/watched.

On that first Sunday, I picked up a Wall Street Journal for the flight home. One of the cover articles was titled “The Social Media Stars Who Move Markets” and profiled a number of “investing influencers”. This group of twenty-somethings with little-to-no investment experience have managed to attract massive audiences and earn millions by doling out investment advice on TikTock, Twitter, and YouTube. The unifying mantra among all of them? Be bullish. Always. It is all they’ve known.

The following Sunday was the twentieth anniversary of the September 11th attacks. Unsurprisingly, this day was filled with remembrances and reflections of that day. Articles covered how 9/11 had shaped America for more than two decades and created a vulnerability not felt in generations. Yet it also highlighted the bravery displayed by many, most notably a 60 Minutes profile of the New York City Firefighters who charged up the towers.

The contrast between the two Sundays was stark, yet makes perfect sense. Given September 11th occurred more than two decades ago, the country is now split between those who “experienced it” and those who have just heard or read about it. For those who lived and/or worked through it, 9/11 kicked off a very difficult decade, especially when you consider the subsequent dot.com bust and Great Financial Crisis. For younger Americans, these events barely represent a blip on their radars. The result is a generational divide centered around the tension between experiencing and learning.

Experienced versus Educated

You can read thousands of books about the Civil War, but you will never truly know what it felt like to be a Union soldier on top of Little Round Top. You can study the Cold War, but you will never fully understand it unless you watched Nikita Krushchev bang his shoe on the desk at the United Nations. You can read about market crashes, recessions, and depressions, but you cannot fully grasp them unless you have invested through one. Unsurprisingly, those who live through moments like these often emerge more risk averse, while those who do not tend to be unphased, or in some cases even more emboldened. Look no further than the 1970’s and the years that followed.

In 1978, Stan Druckenmiller became the youngest director of research at Pittsburgh National Bank at just 25 years old. While Druckenmiller would go on to become one of the most successful investors of all time, he was a relative unknown at the time.

After receiving this promotion just one year into the job, Druckenmiller asked his boss why he was elevated over numerous more senior colleagues. He recalled his boss replying,

“For the same reason they send 18-year-olds to war. You’re too dumb, too young, and too inexperienced not to know to charge. We around here have been in a bear market since 1968. I think a big secular bull market is coming. We’ve all got scars. We’re not going to be able to pull the trigger. So I need a young, inexperienced guy to go in there and lead the charge.”

The 1970’s were a brutal decade for the country and the economy. Inflation was rampant, the U.S. dollar lost half its value, oil shortages were widespread, the Vietnam War divided Americans, and the stock market produced a negative real return. There were plenty of brief equity rallies, but nearly everyone who put money to work during these years had been burned. As a result, this decade caused an entire generation of investors to become risk averse. Yet something else happened during the 1970’s that doesn’t get enough attention. It created a massive opportunity.

As Druckenmiller’s boss highlighted, when a generation becomes scarred by past experiences it also opens the door for hungry, risk-seeking, and entrepreneurial young men and women. Luckily, several of them them took advantage during this period; from Druckenmiller to Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Richard Branson, Sandy Lerner, Howard Schultz, Indra Nooyi, Jamie Dimon, Oprah Winfrey, Michael Moritz, Doug Leonne, and Paul Tudor Jones, among countless others. All were born in the mid-1950s, entered the early parts of their careers in the late-1970s, and started to have a material impact shortly thereafter. Coincidence? I doubt it.

Over the next twenty years (1980-2000), young entrepreneurs, business leaders, and investors helped lead the country through one of the longest economic expansions and secular bull markets in history. They leveraged the infrastructure built in 1960’s and 1970’s (semiconductors, personal computers, automation, digitization, and the earliest stages of the internet) to launch their businesses in the 1980’s and scale them through the 1990’s. There were certainly bumps along the way, including a recession in both the early 80’s and 90’s as well as Black Monday in ‘87, but each proved to be relatively minor speed bumps within a secular market expansion.

Given this backdrop, it begs the question — could we be witnessing a similar pattern today? After the most difficult economic stretch since the 1970’s, the country faced a very similar situation in the late 2000’s. After two deep recessions and a near meltdown of the financial system, another door had opened, and a new generation of unscathed and risk-seeking people once again took advantage.

Today’s Set Up

Why does this happen? Why do some of the most innovative ideas get funded and companies get started during the darkest of days? It seems counterintuitive, but these are often the ideal times to be an entrepreneur or join a startup. The fact is that when the economy is doing poorly, established firms are typically eliminating investments, slashing jobs, reducing compensation, and cutting back on new hires. As a result, the competition for projects is falling, the opportunity cost of going out on your own is low, and the competition to hire talented colleagues is even lower.

This happened in the 1970’s/early 1980s when established firms like General Motors, Ford, AT&T, IBM, Proctor & Gamble, Dupont, and many of the banks pulled in their reins, while Microsoft, Apple, Versace, Activision, Whole Foods, Starbucks, Bloomberg, Tudor, Dell, Adobe, Cisco, Blackstone, and Sequoia all got their starts.

Fast forward to the late 2000’s when Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Cisco, Marriott, McKinsey, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, AIG, and countless “big box retailers” were the ones dialing back, while the likes of AirBnB, Square, 23andMe, Stripe, Shopify, Slack, NuBank, Zoom, Twilio, Moderna, WhatsApp, and Andreessen Horowitz emerged. All were founded after 2006, and most in 2008 or later. The bottom line is that recessions plant the seeds for future economic growth.

What it all Means

So, you may be thinking, “That’s sounds plausible, but it is all in the past. How about what lies ahead?” Three things stand out:

State of the Job Market: If it is more appealing to launch startups and easier to hire talented people during difficult economic times, is it less appealing and more difficult to do so amid an economic expansion and raging bull market? Typically yes, especially when larger companies are generating record profits, hiring hand-over-fist, and paying out generous compensation packages? Yet, while starting a new company and hiring capable teams may still be a challenge, it may not be quite as difficult as in years past. There are several reasons, but one that stands is that venture capital and growth equity firms have been raising massive funds, which are increasingly being used to recruit top talent to join their portfolio companies. The result is that smaller companies are as well positioned as they have ever been to thrive at this stage of a cycle.

Risk….Location, Location, Location: My gut reaction to Millennials and Gen Z’ers chasing jobs in startups and providing investment advice on Tik Tock, Twitter, and YouTube was that it had to be a sign of a top in the market and/or a bubble. On second thought though, isn’t that what younger generations should be doing? Shouldn’t they be the ones taking outsized risks and making bold investments given their youth? If so, could this actually be considered a material positive, especially when the older generations are scarred and more defensively positioned? I would argue absolutely. They are the ones who have the time and earnings potential to recover from any losses they may experience. Said another way, risk today may actually be located in the right hands, which has not been the case in numerous other past cycles.

Secular Bull Market: If risk is in the right hands, capital is flowing into venture capital and startups built off prior technologies, and challenging periods tend to be followed by longer sustained expansions, could we be in the midst of a secular bull market today? As you can see in the chart below, it was certainly true following the 1970s and World War II, and may be true as we look ahead. As with all things though, time will tell.

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

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Added to: BABA

See if you can spot the largest one year spike in U.S. housing prices on record: Give up? A 20% gain for national home prices over a one year period is absolutely nuts. The Wall Street Journal is beginning to worry about how this is impacting affordability: Here’s their takeaway: House prices are rising at a record pace but incomes aren’t keeping up, which is making home ownership less and less affordable. The m...