Mensajes en foros sobre inversiones, economia en Ingles

There are times, like this, when I cherish the fact that I replaced the suburban ethos with a more rural mindset.

I just planted a dozen maples and oaks. We should be planting and tending to our trees, not removing them. The planet needs more of them. I can’t believe this is even a thread; a healthy tree 50 feet from the house.+1000

Statistics: Posted by Dottie57 — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:48 pm

OP of that Reddit post claims to work for ML and doesn’t know but is hesitant to think existing rewards are nerfed.I don't think that captures the OP's reply:
Q: Do you think they're going to nerf the credit card multipliers for the current tiers? I feel like getting 5.25% back isn't sustainable for them.
OP: I’ve been thinking that and telling clients the same for a while now that the ‘overnight rate’ is practically zero.This just seems like speculation on the OP's part (e.g., rewards are primarily tied to transaction fees, not Fed policy), so I wouldn't use their take as an indication either way.Reddit is down for me right now but that conflicts with what they said in another part of the thread.

Frankly it’s FWIW for anyone reading, no proof backing it yet.Yeah, later on the OP mentions why he thinks they won't slash the CC boosters, and it was related to BoA using it to attract assets.

Statistics: Posted by anon_investor — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:47 pm

I read a lot of posts these days from people who are abandoning Vanguard and moving their funds elsewhere. Is it the general consensus that Vanguard is worth leaving? I ask because I have a dormant, 0 balance account there, but I'm considering moving some funds in simply to buy a Vanguard mutual fund without having to pay a commission through a brokerage.

I do remember when I used that Vanguard account years ago I had issues with 1099s that were delivered inexplicably late in the tax filing season (I thought they were required to be available by Feb. 15) and also with funds taking up to 5 days to get into and out of the account, whereas with my brokerage they show up the very next day. Are these the kinds of issues that people are still having problems with?

Thanks.No, Vanguard is not so bad. They are good.

We have had all of our accounts at Vanguard for 16 years, use only Vanguard funds, and have never had any kind of problem. In my experience their customer service has always been prompt, professional and courteous. I like their website and app.

Anecdotes about issues encountered can be informative but are not very helpful in seeing if there is a real problem, or not. Apparently all brokerages have experienced problems recently. According to J. D. Power "With more than 10 million new brokerage accounts opened in 2020 as mainstream investor interest skyrocketed during the pandemic, retail brokerage firms struggled to deliver a seamless customer experience."

In my opinion ratings by trusted sources, and surveys of investor satisfaction, should be more informative than anecdotes.

Vanguard is one of only five firms rated "high" by Morningstar. Morningstar (1/28/2020), "The Best Fund Companies and Their Ratings", link.

Vanguard ranks highest in investor satisfaction. J.D. Power (4/27/2021), PRESS RELEASE, "Online Brokerage Firms Strain under Weight of New Investor Surge, J.D. Power Finds", link.Vanguard (736) ranks highest in self-directed investor satisfaction among investors seeking guidance.
T. Rowe Price (705) ranks second and Charles Schwab (702) ranks third.

Vanguard (736) ranks highest in self-directed investor satisfaction among do-it-yourself investors. Charles Schwab (727) ranks second and T. Rowe Price (721) ranks third.

The U.S. Self-Directed Investor Satisfaction Study, which was redesigned for 2021, measures self-directed investors’ satisfaction with their investment firm based on performance in seven factors (in order of importance): trust; digital channels; the ability to manage wealth how and when I want; products and services; value for fees; people; and problem resolution.

The 2021 study is based on responses from 4,895 investors who make all their investment decisions without the counsel of a full-service dedicated financial advisor. The study was fielded from December 2020 through February 2021.

Statistics: Posted by ruralavalon — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:47 pm

Mr. Cheapo - I'll give you my criteria:

We are $300K away from the "number" I set in my head almost 20 years ago.

I tend to not to think too deeply about things when it comes to money. I just try to be a bit realistic and go with the flow. Wife will still be working and I have 2 part time gigs already lined up with people who want what I got. So I got beer and grocery money covered. House is long paid for and no other debt.

I'm planning to light the fuse after Jan 1 and tell my 25 year employer I'm done, and if they want more than 2 weeks, I'm willing to discuss a longer transition up to the end of June as long as it's less than full time.

I'm not stressed too much. I'd like to have the extra $300k banked, but no way in hell will that delay my plans.

Wife hates when I'm in "working guy" mode. Commission sales income is profitable, but I don't give a chit any more. Time to drop the stress and move on.

Statistics: Posted by Atilla — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:46 pm

If you are feeling uncomfortable with the retirement plan, then I would look at boosting the guaranteed income. Of the 90k in spending how much is basic needs (food, housing), how much is basic quality of life spending (hobbies, socialization), and how much is extra fun (extravagant vacations ect)? If your guaranteed income covers the first two categories, then no mater what happens you'll have a decent retirement. Not knowing all the details, one thing to consider is delaying the higher SS to age 70.

Statistics: Posted by joverby — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:45 pm

So it seems like buying some I bonds is looking good.

I know of the limit to buy $10k online and $5k via a tax refund.

It seems googling around there stratigies to buy more related to spouses gifting each other savings bonds and buying them with a business you own. The articles I read didn't look very polished though. Can anyone confirm these appeoches?if you are married, each spouse can have their own Treausry Direct account and buy electronic I Bonds up to the $10k limit limit each, so $20k combined.I was thinking each spouse could buy $10k for themselves and gift $10k to their spouse in each of their Treasury Direct accounts.I don't think that works, because the $10k gift counts towards the spouse's annual $10k limit. The strategy most people use it to have a trust purchase $10k to have more than the $10k per person limit.

Statistics: Posted by anon_investor — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:44 pm

if its an ADU-style house, I would contact some local builders that specialize in such things. For example, there is a fair amount of interest in ADU's in some California communities, adn cities have pre-approved their plans for easy and fast builds.

Statistics: Posted by Big Dog — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:43 pm

Yes, you can overpay your income taxes and receive a refund in I Bonds of up to $5k. I haven’t done this myself so maybe someone else can chime in on the details for that.

Good summary of how I-bonds work!
As for your point above, all you have to do is overpay before you file your return, and then request your refund in I-bonds on your return...if you use tax filing software the option should be available before you finalize.
One point- you can only get paper I-bonds this way. The IRS mails them to you. Unfortunately you cannot have the refund directly deposited to your Treasury Direct account, so if you have been doing it for years as I have, you wind up with a pile of paper I-bonds. Theoretically they are replaceable if something happens to them, so I keep a record of their numbers on my computer.You can also fill out paper work and mail in the paper I Bonds to be added to your Treasury Direct account, but some people like the paper I-Bonds because they can be immediately redeemed at some banks.

Statistics: Posted by anon_investor — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:42 pm

So it seems like buying some I bonds is looking good.

I know of the limit to buy $10k online and $5k via a tax refund.

It seems googling around there stratigies to buy more related to spouses gifting each other savings bonds and buying them with a business you own. The articles I read didn't look very polished though. Can anyone confirm these appeoches?if you are married, each spouse can have their own Treausry Direct account and buy electronic I Bonds up to the $10k limit limit each, so $20k combined.I was thinking each spouse could buy $10k for themselves and gift $10k to their spouse in each of their Treasury Direct accounts.

Statistics: Posted by MikeZ — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:42 pm

Do trees regularly fall in your neighborhood? Just because a tree is large doesn't mean it's going to fall. Trees improve neighborhoods and property values, attract wildlife, capture carbon from the atmosphere, and clean the air. If you live in a sunny climate, a deciduous tree helps keep your house cool in the summer.

I would not remove a large tree from my property unless absolutely necessary, e.g., the tree was diseased and failing. Of course, trees require periodic maintenance, such as removing dead or dying limbs, but for most trees this can be on a 5-10 year schedule. As far as the debris on your car, you could use a car cover.+1

Cutting down a large, old tree is kind of unthinkable. A large shade tree adds significant value to your property and your neighborhood and your life. I wouldn't buy a house without several of them. It's kind of the whole point of living in the suburbs is it not? If a limb falls on your house, that's what insurance is for. Usually a large limb wont even cause damage, especially from a Maple. Your roof is tougher than you think.+1.

Statistics: Posted by Dottie57 — Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:41 pm

Is this thread a humblebrag? I'm guessing so. So far, no one's posting where they keep their GED.

Statistics: Posted by azanon — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:21 am

Hello all. Some brief details up front.

- Age: 46
- NW: About $500k including the home
- $225k cash (I know, slowly working on setting up a vanguard account, have an IPS mostly written)
- $120k 401k + IRA
- home: owe $60k, 7 years left on 15 (refi from 30), in theory about $110k value, my guess is $85-90k in reality in current condition
- some other ancillary investments
- Income: About $180k gross
- Military pension + VA pension + fed gov job w/ promotion opportunity
- Heavily subsidized healthcare from TRICARE + VA
- Area: South, LCOL, median individual income $25k, hh $48k
- No prior experience as a landlord. Not a DIY type handyman. Not interested in active property management.
- Current mortgage + insurance: $900

Situation: I retired from the military about 3 years ago. Ended up eventually in a government job starting a few months ago and my leadership wants to promote me ASAP when a position opens up. Wife passed away couple years ago. I've gone through the grief thing and now I'm in this home alone trying to decide what to do with it. My job is 100% telework right now, will likely go to 1 day a week in person when we come out of lockdowns, but due to my job being so in-demand I'm also likely one of the few who would qualify for being approved for 100% remote which I may apply for later. So I have flexibility in deciding where to live, in the general local area at least, and if I do get approved for remote (which I won't apply for until later) then I would have a lot more flexibility to live essentially anywhere. But since I live in a LCOL anywhere I go would likely eat into my income fairly significantly.

The home is almost 45 years old. We bought it 13 years ago. I put in a new AC & furnace a year ago. Roof was put in around 2004. It needs a new kitchen and both bathrooms, and I really need to rip the carpet out. Quotes for that work runs about $25k and still leaves the bedrooms carpeted.

I'm trying to decide between the following options:

- Option 1: Stay in the current home. But I don't like "old" houses and would prefer a more modern house. Especially since my income now is about 3x what it was during my original military career. Definitely watching for lifestyle creep though.
- Option 2: Sell the home. Pay for the improvements and hope I can get $110k out of it, or don't pay for the improvements and sell for maybe $85-90k. In either case I only make $20-30k on the sale, and then need to find somewhere else to live. Not a fan of buying locally right now since buying means I should plan to stay in place for 5 years or so, which I'm not sure I'm committing to either. So renting a place is probably the path here.
- Option 3: Keep the home, fix it up, rent it out, and move into another rental home/apartment. Essentially become a landlord.

I'm waffling between options 2 and 3. In theory I like the idea of turning it into a rental and running it as a separate income stream. But I don't know where to start with thinking through the pros and cons. Things like calculating ROI, finding a good property management company, etc. Not sure what the best resources are to research that. Also if I do this should I go ahead and drop a few thousand to put a real estate lawyer on retainer?

I do have an emotional attachment to the home for obvious reasons, so the idea of keeping it and renting it out _feels_ better. Having someone else pay the mortgage while I live somewhere nicer, and keeping the house available in case I later need somewhere to live (massive downturn in finances, etc) is very appealing. But I don't know how to think through the pros/cons including the downside risk. I've heard real estate can be very lucrative but usually that's only if you run a bunch of houses with leveraged mortgages, and I'm generally opposed to a lot of leverage due to risk concerns of suddenly being left holding the bag.

Nice rental apartments and homes I'm looking at locally and in the nearby area are in the $1500-1800 or so range which is easily doable. I could probably rent the current home for a bit more than the mortgage, enough to cover the mortgage and property management costs. If I fixed it up I could maybe get an extra couple hundred a month? But I haven't talked to any property managers to find out the possibilities here so I'm just guessing at this point.

Any help on how to think through this decision is greatly appreciated.

EDIT: I put in some posts below that I have a very real potential to target military families for the rental. They would have essentially a guaranteed income even in a government shutdown, with part of their income specifically designated to cover housing costs, and I know how to reach back to their unit on base to leverage their chain of command if they fail to pay bills / damage property / etc. So this potentially reduces tenancy risk, but maybe not enough to change the decision.

Others are also making very good points which I greatly appreciate and am reading every one of them.Being a landlord is a lot of work. For a single home, you don't make very much money. You already know that you're going to need to replace the roof shortly. Loans against rental properties have higher rates than primary residences. I'm not sure if that $25K number you have above is for all the work you listed and if you got actual quotes or are estimating it. If it's your estimate, you may be estimating it low. I recently got two quotes to replace my roof, it's 2-3x the cost of what people were telling me they paid within the last 5 years.

If you rent the house out for 5 years, you will lose all of the capital gains exclusion when you do sell, with the exclusion phasing out starting in year 4. (Of course, the home could be worth less 5 years from now. Ask anyone who bought their home in 2006 what it was like in 2011.)

In addition, if you switch it to rental, you may have to comply with town/county rules and may have to make fixes to the house before they'll allow you to rent. At 45 years old, there's a chance it has lead paint or other now-recognized-as-hazardous materials.

If you choose to sell the home, don't bother trying to fix it up first. Materials and labor are very expensive and in short supply. It will take longer than you expect. You likely won't get it back when you sell the place.

Statistics: Posted by exodusNH — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:18 am

Thank you for the advice and links, will definitely dive in. My financial picture is definitely complicated and the future as we all know can be pretty hazy. Not expecting anybody to definitively affirm that we can retire at 55 but with all of the wisdom and expertise on this form I'm looking for directional guidance on how I should think about this in terms of resources, calculations, projections, etc.Your financial situation is actually not that complicated except by choice. You can also make a choice to simplify.

By any measure you can retire today if you want. Definitely by 55.

You are correct, 20% isn't a tax bracket. We are in the 35% tax bracket. Doing Roth 401k's due to two reasons -- projected annual income as shown by calculators such as personalcapital.com and expectation of higher tax rates 20 years out from now. Our gross annual income is around $465K.Yeah, don't do that. You are already doing MBDR and you can do Backdoor Roth IRA. You have plenty of Roth. You should be doing at least some Traditional 401k to diversify. Personalcapital does not calculate your *taxable income* as far as I know. If you look at an actual 1040 and think about your retirement situation I guarantee you will not be anywhere close to the 35% bracket.What does MBDR stand for? My average tax rate(taxes paid divided by gross income) has been around 20% for the past few years. I expect that to rise in the coming years.

Our tax deferred account balances(all from 401k rollovers) are $618K vs. our Roth balances at $77K. Are you saying that we should quit contributing towards Roth and continue to build further on the 401k?Again, average tax rate is irrelevant. All that matters is your marginal tax rate now vs retirement. Any dollar you save pretax now gives you an extra .35 in tax deduction. Even if you are taxed 25% in retirement (which you won't be) you will come out ahead.

Sorry for some reason I though you were doing megabackdoor Roth (after tax contributions to 401k that are converted to Roth. Not sure where I got that idea but it's something to look into).

Statistics: Posted by aristotelian — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:18 am

A friend of mine was told to return to the office at the end of September. She's upset because her boss wants everyone in that office, regardless of circumstance. The office is different than where she was working before, so it's a harder commute. She thinks the manager wants to make himself look good in the eyes of his boss.

I think it's a business decision. From what I remember, my former mega-employer managed its properties by ensuring their buildings were filled to capacity. It reduces your cost per foot so it looks better from a profitability perspective, such as submitting cost proposals for a new project. At least that's what I remember.

Does anyone have insight on the effects on the company balance sheet if a building is not filled to capacity?

Statistics: Posted by LadyGeek — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:16 am

run as normalWell, run as normal can be a big ask, but you can get for all practical purposes, close. We have (or shortly will have) most of our large house backed up, but as a practical matter won’t have our pool pumps included, and I would not recommend taking a sauna.

Others have more experience with whole house generators than I do (we have a one off use case), but I expect that you’ll be pointed to 20-22kw propane generators by Generac or Koehler, whichever has more convenient service nearby.

Statistics: Posted by TomatoTomahto — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:15 am

My point is simpler: Megacorp bureaucracy frequently declares expertise that it doesn't have. And a little sunshine proves it.
"This position is worth $X to Megacorp when done remotely from an IP address located in NY. If the remote IP is in Iowa it's worth $.85X"
Nonsense.I don't think that's typically how the conversation goes, though. It's more like "if we want to hire this person, we have to pay them $X". So if that person works in Iowa, and are willing to take .85x, then the company is going to do that every time, assuming their happy with the job being remote.

Why else would offshoring exist?I have sat in hundreds of geographic-cost discussions. No one has ever talked about the "value" of an employee. It is primarily cost driven (which includes more than salary.. having 1 remote person in Iowa is a hassle for the company - state laws, insurance requirements, etc, so often they will say "only these 5 states we already have presence in") At an organization level, it's just numbers on a spreadsheet trying to fit the budget handed down from on high to meet the EPS the CFO promised to wall street.

Absolutely the goal is to pay as little as required in that geography. Note "as required" - if full time remote takes over the world, then it WILL require paying them the same. Which may be vanbogle59's point, I can't tell.I do think to retain talent that bigger companies (who already have employees working in 40+ states) will allow top talent to work in say Aspen, Vail, Steamboat Springs, Jackson WY etc..

I manufacture and sell products to high income/high net worth families and the amount that are high producers for the company basically get to live anywhere they want as long as they keep producing. I have one client that works for a well known apparel company running sales from his home in aspen, he really should be in S. Ca where the rest of his team is but he gets work done.Top talent is always a 2nd order optimization. You go at the macro level (say 2000+ people in a department) - slice and dice it to fit the numbers.. then hand that down. If middle management has some super hero employee blows up the numbers, you fire another 3 mid-levels and send the rest to China to keep that top talent. But the numbers are still the numbers.

Top talent is always the exception - no doubt.. the problem is most people are not top talent, and often even that designation is fleeting and then they're back on the list.

Statistics: Posted by fortunefavored — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:15 am

Is there any reason not to use Wisdom Tree's Efficient U.S. Core Fund (Ticker: NTSX, E.R. 0.20) in place of an intermediate term treasury fund? Based on the description it doesn't appear to hold much in the way of bonds... So, it doesn't really seem like a bond substitute to me.
The investment seeks total return. The fund is actively managed using a models-based approach. It seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in large-capitalization U.S. equity securities and U.S. Treasury futures contracts. Under normal circumstances, the fund will invest approximately 90% of its net assets in U.S. equity securities. It is non-diversified.In other words, No, it's a stock fund, not a bond fund.

Regards,

Statistics: Posted by retired@50 — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:14 am

Last year I went 2.875% -> 2.625% -> 3.5% -> 2.75% -> 2.625% with the same lender on the same property from April - December. Those alone got me to $13k and change.
So to be fair, you took a bit of a gamble increasing your rate to 3.5%, right? If rates jumped after that, you'd be stuck paying the higher rate instead of your previous 2.625%. I understand that worst-case you could have paid off the remaining balance, and I can see how you think you can do better than 3.5% in the market anyway, but it's not quite (as much) guaranteed free money.Better Mortgage let’s you change your selected rate up until closing. I had refi 3 rate locked before closing refi 2. That let me be assured I wouldn’t have a concern about rates changing. Otherwise, the risk would indeed have been higher.

Statistics: Posted by BrandonBogle — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:14 am

I currently have an 80/20 equity to bond mix. The 20% is in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBTLX). Looking for recommendations on how to better structure the fixed income side of my portfolio given low interest rates and inflation. I'm considering adding TIPS and shorter term duration bond funds because I'm concerned that as interest rates rise VBTLX will fall. Interested in others thoughts...I would say there is no meaningful improvement available as far as the long term investor is concerned. That is especially true when you are only 20% allocated to bonds. Any negative returns in bonds will be trivial compared to the volatility of your stock holdings.

To escape any current less than hoped for results in bonds requires investing at some other time than now.

A note is that the return of a bond holding always rises and falls with changes in interest rates. That is already included in the idea of a stock and bond portfolio. The return on cash also varies with interest rates and so does the return on any and all fixed income and even the payouts on fixed annuities vary with interest rates available at the time of purchase.

Disclaimer: I have held half and half intermediate US Treasuries and intermediate TIPS in funds for many years and expect no changes in future decades.

Statistics: Posted by dbr — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:12 am

The point I've been trying to make is that when comparing a fund with a 0.03% ER (VFIAX) and one with a 0.05% ER (TSP C Fund) following the same index, you cannot necessarily expect that the 2 basis point difference will show up in the returns. You might expect that over the past twelve months, $10K invested into VFIAX would give you 2-3 dollars more than $10K invested into TSP C Fund, but the actual difference was TWO CENTS, because of other factors. Below some threshold, differences in ERs just aren't worth thinking about, and VFIAX and TSP C Fund are both well below that threshold.Doesn't VFIAX have a .04% ER? Has it changed? I must admit that I am not that familiar with VFIAX because I only invest in VTSAX so, I haven't been tracking the ER. I am looking at the Vanguard link here: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VFIAX

(I found a post from Mich's Dad with the historical TSP ERs upthread-- and will correct my post upthread)
2016 = 3.8 basis points
2017 = 3.3 basis points
2018 = 4.0 basis points
2019 = 4.2 basis points
2020 = 4.9 basis points

Perhaps it doesn't make much difference. But, wouldn't it be more of an apples to apples comparison if you compared only one year at a time?Not what you asked, but on the FRTIB calls they have publicly talked about they expect the ER's to peak at roughly X.Y basis points then come back down to J.L... i just don't remember what they are, but the board that manages the TSP is aware that the ER's have gone up, and are going to go up a bit more, due to all the projects they have in work, but they expect them to fall back down a bit. Yes, that is a very good point, too.

Statistics: Posted by 2cents2 — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:12 am