Agregador de canales de noticias

The strange knock-on effect of supply-chain bottlenecks

Organisations embrace flat hierarchies at their peril

CEOs are at risk of giving business writing a good name

It wants more home ownership, but is less keen on building more homes

Can it break through?

Reasons to study Greek and Latin are many and varied

Fears of a she-cession were ill-founded

His suggestions just happen to benefit Manchester

Why London is no longer the world’s bourse

The historical context of the City of London’s slump

Ideological differences and bored fighters are creating headaches for its leaders

Diplomats remain loyal to an old regime that barely exists

Targets include vocal critics of the state but also those who make it look bad

En el índice de referencia de la Bolsa española, un valor ha brillado desde 2015. Este ejercicio ha quedado rezagado pero es una oportunidad de compra para la mayoría de los expertos. Creen que puede escalar hasta un 40%. Leer

Cuando termine todo el debate sobre cuestiones menores tal vez nos demos cuenta de que no estamos preparados -tampoco nuestras empresas- para todo lo que viene, muy difícil de gestionar. Leer

El nuevo tope de gama de Xiaomi presume de prestaciones premium a un precio de 649 euros. Leer

El nuevo tope de gama de Xiaomi presume de prestaciones premium a un precio de 649 euros. Leer

The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Andrew Patterson, Vanguard – The Idea Multiplier: An acceleration in innovation is coming             Author:  Andrew Patterson, CFA is an investment analyst in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group. He has coauthored research on topics including the global economy, fixed income, and equity investing. Run-Time: 28:36 […]

The post The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Andrew Patterson, Vanguard – The Idea Multiplier: An acceleration in innovation is coming appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog.

No hay peor ciego que el que no quiere ver.

.

¿Qué acciones de mil millones de capitalización o más, destacan por el ratio pavito?

ZOT      NTGY    Regresa!!LOG    ALB    MAP     ITX

Para ser coherente con la decisión de hace dos semanas en el Nasdaq 100, de no ponerle precio de disparo a nada nuevo, hasta que los números bajen de 110, aquí en el ibex 35 va siendo hora de hacer lo mismo.

Por eso a partir de ahora no le pongo precio de disparo a ninguna acción que aparezca en la lista hasta que los números del ibex 35 bajen de 110.

Como ya estaba puesto de antes, NTGY conserva su precio de disparo al igual que ITX.

Si se salen antes de activarse, esas ideas abría que tirarlas rápidamente a la papelera de reciclaje, en mi opinión de pequeño, muy pequeño pitufito financiero.

Antes de continuar voy a hacer una bromita que seguramente nadie entenderá.

Yo soy el pequeño pitufo financiero… de la puerta de al lado.

Continuemuuusssss……..

Mapfre que tenía un precio de disparo se ha terminado activando, la vemos en un momento, también le echamos un vistazo rápido a la que ha regresado, hablo de LOG.

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¿Qué acciones pueden calificarse de Riquiñas?

ZOT

A modo anécdota, comentar que si R4 tuviera una capitalización mayor, entraría esta misma semana en esta lista.

Cosa que desde hace meses está haciendo, el problema es que tiene una capitalización muy baja, esto es un problema para comprar y un problemón como se pongan nerviosos y tengas que escapar, sabe Dios con que horquilla de precios.

Alguien que quiera cazar trocitos de crecimiento, y sea serio, con stop, gestión monetaria, testeos y toda la pesca, tiene que evitar los valores demasiado pequeños.

.

Las cosas funcionan mejor cuando las personas sufren las consecuencias de sus actos, y todo va peor cuando esto no es así.

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MAP (Mapfre), semanal. A pesar de como estaba y sigue estando el ibex 35, y a pesar de que esta no me parecía que fuera a tocar el precio de disparo, lo ha hecho, se ha activado durante esta semana que ya ha finalizado….

….el stop tiene que seguir siendo, en mi opinión personal y discutible, en el inicial, en 1,66.

Al finalizar la semana aparece un precio por ahí arriba, bastante cerca, en 1,973.

No se puede saber la reacción exacta en ese precio, pero salvo cosas muy excepcionales, lo normal es que como mínimo se acerquen a un 0,20% de distancia o menos, sin llegar a tocarlo, y mucho más normal y más frecuente es que lo toquen y lo dilaten “algo”, para más tarde terminar corriguiendo “algo”.

Lo importante son dos cosas, primero que MAP aguante el tirón del ibex 35, lo segundo que cuando se enfrente a ese precio, la reacción respete lo que le toca y no tumbe al valor.

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En el mercado financiero, los números hablan, a veces su lenguaje es críptico e imperfecto, a veces casi nadie quiere escuchar lo que tienen que decir, porque el mensaje no es del agrado de la mayoría, pero en el mercado financiero…los números hablan.

.

LOG (Logista) semanal. Esta se fue sin activar su precio de disparo, y ahora que regresa, la política es ser coherente con los números del índice como se está siendo desde hace dos semanas en el nasdaq 100…

….por ese motivo cualquier cosa que aparezca en la lista, mientras el ibex 35 no baje de 110, paso de ponerle precio de disparo y paso de ella en todos los sentidos.

Las acciones que ya tenían precio de disparo como NTGY e ITX, si se activan, siguen siendo válidas, claro que, está por ver, que tengan fuerzas para activarse.

En el mundo financiero todo el mundo se ahorraría muchos problemas si aplicaran a rajatabla aquello de si no lo veo, no lo creo.

Claro que entonces, no se yo, a que se dedicarían esos expertos en no poner ni un paviño en sus propios fondos de inversión, mientras juegan con las monedas de los demás.

Esos que riñen a sus inversores de vez en cuando, y les dan muchas lecciones, mientras ellos, que no arriesgan ni un céntimo se concentran bien concentrados en la chupadera de comisiones y en marear bien mareada la cabecita a sus inversores, para que se tragen todo eso del largo plazo, que ya se sabe, es la solución para todo.

Claro que, aquí en España, muchos fondos ni siquiera llegan a cumplir 10 años de vida.

Never before have greatest fools and Nobel economists been in such cozy intellectual consensus. A combination of factors are coalescing to ensure that this crash is the one that pulls back the curtain on this central bank con job. This impending magnitude of dislocation will ensure everyone realizes that transparent criminality is profound evil packaged as virtue...

"So our wisdom, too, is a cheerful and a homely, not a noble and kingly wisdom; and this, observing the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions, forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire any man's happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with every possible variety of fortune; and him only to whom the divinity has continued happiness unto the end we call happy; to salute as happy one that is still in the midst of life and hazard, we think as little safe and conclusive as to crown and proclaim as victorious the wrestler that is yet in the ring"

- Solon by Plutarch

Former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry warned back in late 2014 that central bank alchemy would have a Keynesian body and an Austrian tail. Meaning that it would last long enough to convince the masses that it was working and then it would final monkey hammer them at the end. It would all end in tears at some "unknowable" time in the future. He was right. Despite the roller coaster ride since 2015 when China's last bailout failed, the S&P 500 has churned out new highs, sucking in the capital and the dreams of those who have complete confidence in record alchemy. Drugged by the virtual simulation of prosperity and its acolyte QE. Central banks being nothing more than monetary drug dealers administering euthanasia to the zombified masses. 

It's clear that gamblers still haven't figured out that 0% interest rates imply 0% real economic growth. Or maybe they don't care that all returns are a zero sum game. Only their own RECORD misallocation of capital has been driving this Ponzi market ever higher. All convinced in this zero sum game that they will cash out for maximum profit. Unfortunately, they will all soon realize that the only thing more painful than wasted money, is wasted life. 

So what are these "unique" risk factors that I speak of. First and foremost, Millennials discovering investing at the end of the longest cycle in U.S. history are the biggest single risk to these markets. We already saw a glimpse of this earlier this year during the Gamestop debacle. ALL of the major online brokers experienced outages when that pump and dump scheme exploded. Pundits described it as the "democratization of markets". They extolled the boiler room on Reddit as the "future" of markets. 

"A message board destroys a top Wall Street hedge fund. You’ve surely heard about the WallStreetBets/GameStop saga by now. Many investors see it as a sign markets are headed for a crash"

Google searches for “stock market bubble” just hit the highest level ever. And a new E-Trade survey found two-thirds of investors think the market is in a bubble"

Then he goes on to explain how this is all very bullish. Of course he has been right so far in 2021, although September just recorded the worst month since March 2020. We saw this same pattern back in 2018. Google trends "stock market bubble" peaked in February and was trending lower when the market unexpectedly tanked in the fourth quarter. The same pattern is happening now. 

Meanwhile, the amount of dislocation we saw back in February vis-a-vis online brokers was unprecedented even relative to the COVID collapse in 2020. A single stock pump and dump scheme caused more dislocation than a global pandemic.

Here in this chart below, I use Ameritrade as an example, but ALL of the online brokers experienced volume-related outages back in February and March of this year. Even more so than in 2020. Why? Because of the massive volumes of newbie traders democratizing pump and dump schemes.

Millennials have never seen a bear market before, which is why they believe that down markets and margin calls are mere folklore. They are convinced they can ride out any market on maximum leverage. All they need to do is double down and ride it out.

Here we see the equity put/call ratio remains near record lows relative to other major selloffs:

While invincible retail gamblers have been loading up on risk, institutions have been taking down their exposure. This can be seen in this chart of up volume / total volume. The divergence relative to recent all time highs is massive:

The market is disintegrating in broad daylight. This most recent rally high was led by a handful of massively overowned Tech stocks. Now, amid the Fed's impending taper, these last mega caps are starting to lose their bid. It's only a matter of time before the algos step back from this Disneyfied "market" and it goes bidless.

In summary, us "perma bears" have been "wrong" all this time while the masses added record leverage to their Ponzi scheme during a depressionary pandemic. This monetary-fueled asset mania coming at the end of the longest cycle in U.S. history has served its purpose of concealing the weakest and fakest economic recovery in history.  The CBO predicts that the 2021 Federal deficit will be 13.4% of GDP, while the GDP growth rate will be 7%.  Had the same amount of stimulus been applied in past recessions, there would have been no recessions in U.S. history. 

Why mass deception is considered good economic policy is not for me to say. 

Millennials are nothing more than the latest cannon fodder for Wall Street's massive money machine which thrives on monetizing ignorance. And in this society, there is a bull market in ignorance because the IQ bar keeps going lower, and lower, and lower.

Any questions?

"CNBC Documentaries presents “Generation Gamble,” a comprehensive look at the proliferation of online investing, crypto and sports betting apps and how a new generation is being encouraged to act more aggressively towards money and risk. Reported by CNBC’s Melissa Lee, this hour-long original documentary explores a new era where the boundaries between gaming, betting and investing are blurred, and younger consumers are being targeted"

It's transparent criminality, America's latest business model.