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Cada mes construimos para usted tres tablas de correlaciones entre las principales categorías de fondos

No para las carteras de los inversores.

Las correlaciones de los principales factores son relativamente altas, pero, aun así, pueden mostrar diferencias de rentabilidad distintos entornos de mercados.

Thanks for all the comments and replies here. They've been extremely helpful as I come closer to taking the next steps. In this response, I'll focus on discussion related to my taxable account.

As of now, I'm planning to start by heeding the following advice:
Regarding the rest of your taxable holdings, honestly, I would sell them now, take the tax hit now and have cash on hand anyway, and before you get attached to these investments. I would completely ignore what has been doing great and what hasn't been doing great and just grit your teeth (a little) and sell this stuff and buy index funds.Lose those individual stocks and high expense funds before the gains grow big and you are stuck realizing large gains (and thus large taxes). Let the gains become long term gains though, before selling (1 year from date of purchase). Stop dividend reinvestment.Selling everything in my taxable account should leave me with roughly $200K to reinvest (minus capital gains tax?), in addition to the $75K (cash in Fidelity) + $65K (in savings account), for a total of ~$340K (again, this doesn't take into account capital gains tax, which I'm not sure how to factor in). With such a large sum of money (to me), I want to make sure I get this investment right.

Again, here's what y'all suggested:
In taxable, again I'd go with VTWAX and keep things super simple. From my point of view, at least, there is a lot of value in clarity and simplicity in investing. When you have a simple plan and execute it, it is hard to make mistakes and it is easy to let your investments grow for you.With VTWAX, I like how simple this approach would be. If I'm understanding correctly, I wouldn't need to worry about rebalancing, or tracking the performance of different sectors or US vs international. Peace of mind is worth quite a lot to me, as I don't want to spend my life worrying about money.

However, I've been advised by others (such as my financial advisor at Fidelity) that in general, ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds because they avoid the tax on dividends distributed by mutual funds. That said, I'm also remembering that Vanguard uses an approach to eliminate taxes on its mutual funds. So let's put ETF vs mutual fund aside for now.

My second concern has to do with advice I've received to break up the investments in my taxable accounts into different sectors (e.g. large-cap, small-cap, international). The advantage of this, I've been told, is tax efficiency that comes when tax-loss harvesting. With investments in different funds, I could sell off losses to offset gains more easily than if I was invested in just one fund. I do value simplicity, but I wonder if having the option to tax-loss harvest may come in handy down the road.

Lastly, sell everything in your taxable account and invest in VTI (or I bonds)With the advice to invest in VTI, I worry about losing out on diversification from international markets, and (similar to my points above) wonder about the advantages of breaking up VTI into large-cap and small-cap to allow for tax-loss harvesting, when/if needed.

If I were to take this, I'd lean toward a 60% large-cap, 10% small-cap, 30% international split, perhaps using these funds:

1) 60% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) (.04%)
2) 10% Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSMAX) (.05%)
3) 30% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX) (.11%)

Any thoughts, feedback, and suggestions would be very much appreciated.

Statistics: Posted by jcloughesy — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:16 pm

If the choice comes down to Roth vs 529, you need to save more money or earn more money. Sorry for being blunt, but someone needs to say it.

Statistics: Posted by Lee_WSP — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:15 pm

I have tried a bunch of calculators. The one at Fidelity shows present and future dollars; data is shown as a graph and in table format.

You should count the pension and SS for planning purposes. If your monthly retirement expenses are very high, you will need a sizable portfolio.

I think the 25x-35x expenses works great as a high level goal. So subtract $72k from your projected retirement expenses and multiple by 30x and that is a reasonable target. You can further refine the goal by including SS at FRA which will further reduce your portfolio goal number.

Statistics: Posted by Wiggums — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:14 pm

There's a reason why option trading is often referred to as "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller".

Statistics: Posted by JonFund — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:14 pm

Yes, you can make money selling covered calls, but it's not easy money. I did it for several years and did ok -- met my expectations-- but it's a lot of work and all the problems with the strategey mentioned in this thread are real. As mentioned, it's not easy trying to find somebody who wants to give you good money for an option which has a very good chance of being worthess.Mostly this
Probably a strategy best executed in retirement accounts and on a small portion of your portfolio. Basically don’t sell any calls where you would be upset if your shares got called away.

Statistics: Posted by fanmail — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:13 pm

I do this as well, but you may want to consider not reimbursing from the HSA this year or anytime soon, and taking advantage of the tax deferred growth in the HSA account.

There is a fairly big tax loophole that you can reimburse from the HSA in any year in the future, even 30+ years if you want, as long as the initial expense was after the HSA formation. If you do this, save all HSA statements and receipts for every year going forward, so you can document it when you actually take it, if audited.

More here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkudla ... dc3a9744c0This is only worth doing if you are maxing out your retirement accounts. Otherwise, you are better off paying medical expenses from the HSA and contributing more to your Roth IRA for 401(k). The HSA has the biggest tax benefit, but you already got that benefit when you contributed deductible money that you could withdraw tax-free.

Statistics: Posted by grabiner — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:10 pm

so you're saying that diversification does not matter as much if the time period is pretty large, for example 20-30 years?No, I'm saying large random variability of results means that whatever differences you find in the statistics quoted aren't of any particular practical help though the theoretical odds are improved. That is true for any time period. Also you need to believe the inputs to the model are accurate forecasts of the future statistics of the returns. Small changes could reverse any thing there now.

The result is not necessarily a diversification effect. Adding an asset, SCV, that has a higher expected return and higher expected risk will increase the returns and also increase the risk. Diversification is measured by some measure of efficiency of which none is provided nor even a standard deviation of modeled annual returns. Probably the net diversification effect in this experiment is small. Possibly the best statistic of those provided to measure that would be the small increase in SWR, which is not meaningful measured against the wide range of the distribution of possible outcomes.

Statistics: Posted by dbr — Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:10 pm

Used to get 3/16 steel rod for model boat propeller shafts. Was able to easily drill 1/16 hole and thread 10-32. All rod available now is too hard to drill or tap. Not sure what it was that I bought in the past that was so forgiving.

Related Stocks: QSR,

Quieren quitarse años y no saben cómo!

Muchas gracias @Javier_Saenz , se me fue completamente

The billionaire entrepreneur’s hourlong trip was aimed at highlighting the safety and potential of sending paying passengers to the edge of space.

Tras 3 meses con los tipos de interés corrigiendo y tras una subida del dólar importante los mercados asiáticos se han encontrado en la situación más difícil desde la crisis del año pasado.

Sin embargo, el viernes tuvimos una reacción muy importante en los mercados que podría cambiar los flujos de dinero en las próximas semanas. La caída de los tipos de interés podría haber terminado y con ello puede volver a salir dinero de la renta fija hacia la renta variable.

Con la ¿nueva tendencia alcista? del dólar a punto de romper zonas críticas, los mercados de renta variable americanos se pueden beneficiar mucho en las próximas semanas. Sobre todo los de mayor capitalización.

Si quieres tener un análisis diario de los mercados apúntate al seguimiento del DIARIO DE MERCADOS:

https://www.bolsaconcabeza.com/diario-de-mercados

¿Quieres saber qué son los Escenarios de Inversión y qué activos lo hacen mejor en cada uno de ellos? Apúntate a la Guía de inversión:

https://www.bolsaconcabeza.com/gu%C3%ADa-de-inversi%C3%B3n 

 Twitter: @bolsaconcabeza

No creo que el ratio deuda-activos sea muy reseñable en este caso, son negocios tan poco intensivos en capital… miraría el free cash flow ajustado respecto a deuda.

Respecto al payout, bueno, PM lleva años invirtiendo en todo lo relativo a IQOS, en algún momento irá bajando su inversión en flagships y demás (un amigo de la familia, arquitecto, es el encargado en España de las tiendas de IQOS en España, no solo de estas sino de la remodelación de los estancos -le renuevo el estanco a cambio de lucir la publicidad de IQOS- y ya le quedaba poco por hacer, una vez acabe pues un país menos en el que meter gasto por aquí). Altria, si ve que IQOS coge tracción, probablemente imitará la estrategia para crear marca de Philip Morris, luego habrá mayor gasto contable y tendrán que ajustar el pay-out si no quiere reducir el dividendo (ídem cuando venga el alza del corporate tax).

"Utterly Unacceptable": Judge Blasts DC Jail For Not Allowing Jan. 6 Capitol Defendant Access To Evidence

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A federal Washington D.C. judge faulted a district jail on Thursday for failing to provide evidence to a defendant who was arrested for allegedly being involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol breach and has been held there for months.

Jorden Mink, the defendant in the case, was indicted (pdf) on several federal charges, including destruction of government property and theft. Mink, who has pleaded not guilty, has been held in jail since January. Officials have alleged Mink used a baseball bat to smash windows at the Capitol and passed furniture through the smashed windows to the crowd outside.

“I can’t allow someone to sit in prison for this long without access to material,” Judge Randolph Moss said at a court hearing on Thursday, saying the delay in evidence was “utterly unacceptable” and “not consistent with due process.”

During the Thursday court hearing, prosecutors said they had given the evidence to the jail in May and didn’t understand why Mink hasn’t been able to obtain the documents. Mink was offered a plea deal, prosecutors noted, but they said he can’t decide on whether to accept the deal because he hasn’t seen the evidence against him.

Randolph ordered prosecutors to work with the jail to grant the defendant access to the evidence against him by the end of Thursday, reported CNN. If Mink doesn’t gain access to the documents soon, the judge said, his detention may be reconsidered.

There have been other reports of Jan. 6 defendants not being able to gain access to evidence against them, essentially denying them due process under the Constitution’s Fifth Amendment. Prosecutors have suggested that due to the sheer number of arrests related to the incident, there have been delays.

So far, more than 500 defendants across nearly every U.S. state have been charged over the past six months over the Jan. 6 breach, according to the Department of Justice in early July.

It comes as lawyers earlier this month said that dozens of people in federal custody following the Jan. 6 incident are currently being held in solitary confinement, denied access to legal counsel, and are being denied medical care.

“There are about 50 plus or minus that are being detained, that have been in prison for months and will likely remain in prison for many more months until their day in court,” attorney John Pierce told EpochTV’s “The Nation Speaks.”

Mink was scheduled to appear before Randolph in April but missed the court date because he tested positive for COVID-19. His attorney, Michael Mosher, said that Mink was having difficulty gaining access to medication that he takes regularly while in jail.

“He takes medications to treat those, but since coming to Virginia and DC, he’s not been getting those meds as prescribed,” Moser told a court at the time, according to local media.

In January, Mink was arrested at his home in Bridgeville, Pennsylvania, and was held in the Butler County Jail. Federal court records say that he was transferred from the county jail to the D.C. jail.

The Epoch Times has contacted the D.C. jail for comment.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 15:30