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With the forum down I wonder how many remember to check in over here.

But the taller they get, the harder they will be to repair

And has few moving parts at its core

Both phenomena are linked to climate change

A climate of fear has enveloped the city’s campuses

Securitas Direct ha crecido un 88% en el último lustro. El año pasado aumentó su plantilla un 20% y marcó un punto de inflexión en la gestión de personas al decidir dejar de lado los procesos y la burocracia para ponérselo más fácil a todos sus empleados. Leer

Wealth is easy to measure but hard to value.

When George Vanderbilt moved into Biltmore – the largest home in America at 178,000 square feet – one newspaper in 1899 wondered what the point was.

The goals of the country’s richest during the Gilded Age, it said, seemed to be “devoting themselves to pleasure regardless of expense.” But often they got the reverse: “Devotion to expense regardless of pleasure.”

George didn’t spend much time in the 250-room mansion which, by the time he died, had nearly bankrupted him.

Twenty years before Biltmore was constructed, the New York Daily Tribune wrote that “The Vanderbilt money is certainly bringing no happiness to its present claimants.”

That wasn’t closet jealousy. Armed with the world’s greatest fortune, the Vanderbilt family seemed committed to proving the idea that money doesn’t buy happiness. They took it a step further, showing that when managed poorly money could in fact buy resentment, insecurity, and social anxiety. It could buy it in bulk.

Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: Incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough.

The highest forms of wealth are measured differently.

A few stick out:

1. Controlling your time and the ability to wake up and say, “I can do whatever I want today.”

Five-year-old Franklin Roosevelt complained that his life was dictated by rules. So his mother gave him a day free of structure – he could do whatever he pleased. Sara Roosevelt wrote in her diary that day: “Quite of his own accord, he went contently back to his routine.”

There’s a difference between working hard because you want to and working hard because someone else told you you had to, and how to do it, and when to do it. Even if you’re doing the same work, the independence of doing it on your own terms changes everything in the same way that sleeping in a tent is fun when you’re camping but miserable when you’re homeless.

To me, the highest form of wealth is controlling your time.

Wealth can lead to time independence, but it’s never assured. It can be the opposite, as whatever created the wealth – whether a company or an inheritance – creates a claim on your time in equal proportion to its financial reward. A great number of CEOs fall into this category: They have an abundance of wealth and not a moment of free time or scheduling control even when it’s desired, which is its own form of poverty.

Charlie Munger summed it up: “I did not intend to get rich. I just wanted to get independent.” It’s a wonderful goal, and harder to measure than net worth.

2. When money becomes like oxygen: so abundant relative to your needs that you don’t have to think about it despite it being a critical part of your life.

There’s a scene in the documentary The Queen of Versailles when the son of a man whose ability to make money was exceeded only by his desire to spend it, causing a family fortune to shrivel near the edge of bankruptcy:

On my wedding day my father gave a speech, and he looked at my wife and he said, “You will never have anything to worry about in your life.”

But now we worry every day.

A high form of wealth is avoiding that mess. And it isn’t necessarily tied to how much money you have.

Keep two things in mind:

• Desiring money beyond what you need to be happy is just an accounting hobby.

• How much money people need to be happy is driven more by expectations than income.

A thing I’ve noticed over the years is that some of the wealthiest people think about money all the time – which is obvious, because it’s causation. But it’s an important observation because most people, despite aspiring to become one of the wealthiest, actually want something different: the ability to not have to think about money.

It’s a different skill, but it’s powerful when you make it work. A person whose expectations relative to income are calibrated so they don’t even have to think about money has a higher form of wealth than someone with more money who’s constantly thinking about making the numbers work.

3. A career that allows for intellectual honesty.

This includes: Being able to say, “I don’t know” when you don’t know. Being able to speak critical truths about your industry without fear of retribution. The ability to make reasonable mistakes, and be open about them, without excessive worry. And not pretending to look busy to justify your salary.

There are high-paying careers that allow all those things. But there are so many that don’t, and a lot of what people pass off as “hard work” and “grinding” is just finding ways to bury the truth. A job that lets you be open and honest pays a bonus that’s hard to measure.

More:

• The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence

• Wealth Is What You Don’t Spend

• The Biggest Returns

Buenas compañeros.

Estoy haciendo pruebas con diferentes aceros y me gustaria saber cuanto de duros se ponen segun el acero o el tratamiento termico. La tenacidad o flexibilidad con doblarlos hasta partir algo sacas, pero la dureza se me complica. Con meterle la lima para ver si ha templado no me quedo del todo convencido.

Conocia las limas de dureza y el otro dia vi en la web china (ali...exp..) un durometro tipo boligrafo que viene con una peana de acero para calibrar. No se si merece la pena el durometro o con las limas ya sacas suficiente informacion.

Alguien usa algun sistema de estos o cualquier otro??

Se que hay durometros industriales que seria lo suyo pero tampoco quiero gastarme un pastizal en la maquinita.

Los durometros tipo boli valen sobre 100-150 € y las limas algo menos. No se si merecen la pena.

Pues eso....cualquier info sobre este tema me iria muy bien.

Saludos.

People respond to incentives and the incentive arising from cheap money is to pull forward consumption from the future in order to live large today. From a speculator standpoint, the incentive is to borrow the maximum amount of cheap money in order to maximize risk. So it is that we find ourselves in a FOMO asset bubble which is driving FOMO consumption demand. The only thing that will be left when it all explodes will be the record liabilities. Gamblers have been doubling down on every dip since this rally began. So it was inevitable they would be one dip over the line...
The market fragility issues that almost imploded markets back in February have long since been forgotten. In the meantime, risk appetite has increased, margin debt has reached new records, and liquidity has collapsed. Perfect time for a Robinhood IPO to put the exclamation mark on this epic era of greed coming at the end of the longest cycle in U.S. history. The gamification of fraud packaged and sold as the "democratization of markets". You can't make this shit up.





Recall that the Coinbase IPO top ticked the crypto/Bitcoin rally back in late April. I see the same thing happening now with this imminent Robinhood IPO - a blowoff top in risk sentiment:


"More than perhaps any other company, Robinhood has benefited immensely from the animal spirits unleashed by a coronavirus pandemic-driven 18 months of meme trading and stimulus-fueled speculation. And it now seems poised to taste the other edge of the blade as a falling short-term market damps enthusiasm for what should be a long-term bet"

Ironically of course, Coinbase was also part of this stimulus-fueled speculation. From its first day peak, that IPO is now down -35%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin just broke the key support level which has been holding for over a month. The BTFD has failed, which means massive global margin call is imminent:




The IPO count so far this year is literally off the charts. This is already the busiest summer for IPOs on record:

"The great IPO boom of 2021 has already smashed the record for the busiest summer ever, and there are plenty of big deals still to come"
One thing we know for certain is that Wall Street will keep dumping new supply into this market until the casino explodes. They will not leave $1 of dumb money on the table. So it's perfect timing for Robinhood which will be one of the biggest IPOs of recent years. 




SPACs, IPOs, Bitcoins, Biotechs, Electric Vehicles, Cloud stonks, they're all the same trade now - RISK ON.
For months, the bond market has been warning that speculation is way out of control, meaning t-bonds are now a much better barometer of market risk than the stonk market. Why? Because deja vu of last year, today's gamblers would rather remain in the casino gambling, and learn that lesson as late as possible. Which is why each crash has been more abrupt than the last. Gamblers have become more and more over-confident with time. Absolutely convinced that central banks can bail them out of whatever massively over-leveraged bets they make in every asset class. This week we learned that margin debt increased again month over month to a new record high. This means that the second best first half in 20 years ended with maximum leverage.
This is the type of headline last seen in 1929:

"Rising stocks and rock-bottom interest rates have delivered a big perk to rich Americans: cheap loans that they can use to fund their lifestyles while minimizing their tax bills"
Banks say their wealthy clients are borrowing more than ever before, often using loans backed by their portfolios of stocks and bonds"

This tax avoidance scheme has gone into overdrive since Biden got elected, because the wealthy now fear a potentially increased capital gains tax more than they fear the market. In other words, they are willing to risk a 60% drawdown to save a few percent on taxes. Buy, borrow, die indeed.
Aiding and abetting this speculative insanity is the fact that today's economists, pundits, and gamblers are now convinced that the shortest recession in U.S. history corrected the longest expansion in U.S. history. You have to be brain dead to believe that, therefore it goes unquestioned.


It's official, we now live in a 100% Idiocracy. When debt is now "GDP" and printed money is monetizing the debt, then the concept of recession no longer has any meaning. In 2021, the U.S. Federal debt will grow 6x faster than the economy as a % of GDP. Had every other generation been this profligate, there would be have been no recessions in history, and the dollar would be worthless. This chart which I showed on Twitter and have since updated (corrected a few errors) gives an idea of the duration of this expansion/recession combination relative to past decades. The 1990-2000 expansion was formerly the longest expansion in history and yet it appears fractional compared to this current illusion:



Gamblers will inevitably realize too late that they went ALL IN a pandemic melt-up bubble arriving at the end of the longest expansion and bull market in history. Because really who wouldn't believe that a pandemic and attendant mass layoffs were catalyst for an entirely new economic cycle?




However, I made the case in my last post that the nations that have the most debt: Japan, Europe, U.S., Canada, Australia etc. now have the least likely chance of being in reflation. They are slaves to the debt market and debt is deflationary. The balance of power has skewed towards capital for too long and now the economy is buried by debt. Which is why monetary policy is  now solely for the rich, and the fiscal multiplier has collapsed. Which portends a deflationary ice age on the other side of global margin call. Picture a scenario in which the price of everything collapses at the same time. Gold jewelry is sold to pay the utility bills. Used car prices are a fraction of new car prices, meaning no one buys a new car anymore. Housing prices exploded globally. At that point, assets turn into liabilities. Those who have been binging on excess and borrowing against their assets in human history's largest asset bubble, will soon realize that their erstwhile lifestyle is now a ball and chain. Asset values collapse, but the attendant liabilities will remain at their peak bubble high.
Which gets us to where things stand right now in the casino. As I write on Tuesday, bulls are staging a miraculous comeback from yesterday's gap 'n crap. As I wrote on Twitter, the algos are doing everything possible to defend the 50 day moving average. However, we are seeing signs of hedge fund liquidation as the massively crowded reflation trade gets unwound and at the same time the ultra-shorted Ark ETF pair trade gets bought. Meaning hedge funds are taking down their total exposure.
One need not expect this fake Tech bid to turn into a new bull market:




Cyclicals are in no man's land:





Energy stocks are weakest and indicating a three wave social mood correction that has been conflated as a new bull market:







In summary, it was inevitable that today's bailout addicts would be one dip over the line. The incentive is to do stupid things with money, and they always respond to incentives. 

Vengo de ponerme mi dosis correpondiente de JNJ, quizá sea una señal y deba abrir posición…

Pero no voy a tratar la inversión, vengo de vacunarme con un cúmulo extraño de sensaciones.

Ha sido como cuando dicen que ves tu vida pasar cuando vas a morir.

En este caso he visto mi vida estos últimos meses y ha sido como vivir todo de golpe, ha sobrevenido un tsunami de emociones difícil de manejar, lejos de alegrarme por tener que “sufrir” solo una dosis me ha embargado la tristeza.

Sin pensar en nada en particular me han venido imágenes de estos meses, tristeza, dolor, odio, enfrentamientos basados en creencias basadas a su vez en lecturas aleatorias en redes sociales, soledad, prohibiciones, impunidad, impotencia, insignificancia…

Me he acordado de mi hijo pequeño viéndole pasar de una escuela infantil llena de afecto y abrazos a un colegio frio (en sentido figurado y tb literal por la ventilación) lejano e incomprensible, con geles y barreras para el sistema inmune y para los sentimientos.

Me he acordado de la psicosis al tocar cosas, de las barreras sociales, de ver que nuestro mundo se derrumbaba, de España que no terminaba de salir de la anterior crisis y se metía de lleno en un agujero de cierre de empresas y de desempleo que aún queda por ver lo que durará.

Me he acordado de mis padres viviendo con miedo desde que esto empezó y con miedo siguen debido a sus creencias y a titulares infames que se repiten día tras día, limitando su vida, en sus últimos años al último reducto de existencia de lo básico, como una dictadura autoimpuesta de soledad y baja movilidad, una carcel compuesta de casa, supermercado, hospital y paseos por espacios poco concurridos, aún vacunados ahí siguen, quizá de ahí venga mi tristeza hoy, de ver y vivir a través de ellos esta pandemia, o quizá de acordarme del padre de un amigo cuyas costumbres de vida se asemejaban terriblemente a las de mis padres y que ha acabado sus días en una camilla de hospital. Condenado a muerte sin saberlo ha vivido sus últimos meses una miserable vida.

Si, ya se, problemas del primer mundo, donde alguien puede elegir si encerrarse o no, otros en otros lares no tienen elección, no tienen vacuna, no tienen ucis…
Somos gotas en el océano pero aún así pensamos, cada uno que somos únicos, y lo somos en cierta forma pero al fin y al cabo maleables y miembros de un solo mundo.

Hace unos meses pensaba que sería imposible tener vacunas, pesimista de mi, dejaba a España de las últimas en vacunación de la población y finalmente aquí estamos.

Aún con todo esto, desde mi postura critica y buscando siempre el mejor equilibrio entre vivir y cuidarse, lo confieso, he tenido miedo, no me ha gustado la sensación, esa quemazón cuando la dosis entra en el brazo, todas esas ideas de las que siempre he huido han terminado calando, sólo en el subconsciente, por supuesto, pero es curioso, yo que siempre me he vacunado y he vacunado a mis hijos sin plantearme nada en absoluto.

Y tb me ha hecho pensar en la muerte, en esa posibilidad en la que cuando tu vida pasa alegremente no te planteas demasiado pero que siempre está ahí y me ha hecho pensar en mi vida, en las prisas, en el trabajo, en la familia, en aquello del carpe diem.

Cuídense y disfruten de su vida, cada minuto es suyo y nunca volverá.

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La nueva ronda en deuda y equity, liderada por i80 Group, sigue a los 103 millones de euros levantados en junio, y ayudará a la 'start up' fundada en Boston a financiar el ecosistema de ingresos recurrentes europeo. Capchase opera en España y Reino Unido, y espera expandirse durante los próximos 6 meses. Leer

I recently read a blog post from Patrick Stanley where he claimed: By the end of this decade, almost everyone who’s online will become an investor. I agree with Stanley’s assertion, but what he is describing has mostly already happened. Over the last few hundred years, and especially over the last half century, investing has evolved from something only done by the rich and powerful to something done by everyda...

The post We Are All Investors Now appeared first on Of Dollars And Data.

La ronda de serie A ha estado liderada por Btov, Rocket Internet y Cabiedes. El nuevo capital servirá para impulsar el algoritmo de Tiko de valoración propio basado en la tecnología del 'big data' y a acelerar la expansión internacional de la compañía. Leer

El gestor de concesiones de infraestructura de transporte se convierte en el nuevo inversor de la 'start up' española especializada en el desarrollo de soluciones de movilidad fundada por Guillermo Campoamor. Esta ronda se suma a la anterior de 4 millones de euros, liderada por Liil Ventures, cerrada en diciembre de 2020. Leer

Los modelos de pago por uso se han convertido en tendencia en muchos sectores y benefician tanto a usuarios como a empresas. Consiguen tener clientes más fieles y pueden generar ingresos recurrentes para las compañías. Leer

La ronda de financiación ha sido liderada por Left Lane Capital, la firma de Inversión de capital basada en New York, especializada en empresas tecnológicas de alto crecimiento, acompañada por Insight Partners y con la participación de los inversores previos Coatue Management y Bessemer Venture Partners. Leer

La proptech, fundada en 2020 por los hermanos Pablo y Jaime García, ha captado nuevo capital en una ronda liderada por The Lab Venture Funds, un fondo que crea y financia compañías que operan en ámbitos en los que existe escasa transformación digital, como es el sector inmobiliario. Leer

La nueva financiación cuenta con la renovación del compromiso de varios business angels como Vicente Olivenza, Carlos Cosín, Rafa Garrido y Ricky Posner. La compañía tecnológica, con una trayectoria de diez años, utilizará este capital para seguir optimizando y mejorando sus propios productos: Taiga y Penpot. Leer

It is well known that once we own something, we are inclined to value it more than someone who doesn’t own it. This endowment effect is most at play when it comes to the housing market where homeowners systematically overestimate how much their house is worth in the eyes of a potential buyer.

But that endowment effect doesn’t always go in one direction. In fact, it tends to work only for assets that have increased in value. If we are confronted with losses, we tend to experience a “negative endowment effect” in the sense that something that has caused us pain in the form of losses seems worth less to us than to a more neutral outsider.

Take my recent experience with a new car we bought last year. I won’t mention the brand, but it was my first full-electric car, and I was proud to own it and thought it drove really well. For about seven months, both my wife and I were promoting the car to friends until one day, my wife had a catastrophic breakdown on her way to work. It had nothing to do with the battery or the electric drivetrain. Instead, a bearing on the rear axle broke, and essentially the car’s axle broke down completely. I will spare you the details of my arguments with the manufacturer and the garage, but the most likely thing that happened was that we bought a lemon with a one-off manufacturing flaw. But one thing I can assure you is that whenever I talk to my friends about my car these days, I make sure to tell them what a piece of crap it is and that I will never buy a car from that brand again.

Funnily, enough, something similar seems to work for assets that we own and that have made a profit or a loss. The chart below shows the beliefs about the quality of an asset in the eyes of people who own the asset vs. people who don’t own the asset and the return of the asset. As you can see, if the asset had a positive return, owners think that it is of higher quality than non-owners. But if the asset has a negative return, owners think it is worse than non-owners do.

Beliefs about the quality of a good

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Source: Hartzmark et al. (2020)

According to the study, what happens is that once we own an asset, we are paying more attention to the news flow around that asset. I bet every reader will know more about the stocks they own and the recent company news around these stocks than about stocks they don’t own. But this focus on the news of assets we own creates a bias in our memory. The more we focus on news on specific assets, the easier it is to recall it from memory. And this recency effect of memory recall creates a tendency to extrapolate recent performance into the future. So, we start to be biased about our assets in a very systematic way and become “mental momentum investors” thinking that a streak of positive news has to continue as does a streak of recent negative news. 

And how do you combat this kind of emerging bias due to ownership, you ask? I don’t really know. My experience as a practitioner is that one way to become less passionate and “invested” in an asset or a position is to pay less attention to it. This doesn’t mean ignoring it, but there is typically no need to follow the news on your stocks every day. If you are a long-term investor (e.g. you are saving for retirement or are a university endowment) then looking at the news flow every quarter as the company reports earnings etc. is probably enough. If you are a trader, then looking at the news flow on a daily basis is probably necessary. But what to do if you are a fund manager? My experience is that most fund managers are too obsessed with the day-to-day news flow and would be better served if they look at the news only once a week or so. This way you still get the key trends but are not distracted by the noise. And don’t worry, you will not miss the really important stuff. Because even if you don’t read the news at all, you can be sure that if something really important happens, people will alert you to it because they are getting scared. And being somewhat removed from the daily news flow will automatically allow you to remain calm and collected when others panic. 

He was carried there by one of Blue Origin’s New Shepard rockets