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SP500: intra year drawdowns

rastreandovalor.blogspot.com - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 20:21

-1% happens every year on average.

-5% happens every 1.1 years on average.

-10% happens every 1.6 years on average.

-15% happens every 2.5 years on average.

-20% happens every 4 years on average.

-30% happens every 9 years on average.

Gold Stock DOUBLE BUMP Coming

katusaresearch.com - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:58

A couple of weeks ago, I went out for dinner with the CEO of a gold royalty company.

He lowered his voice, leaned across the table…

…and told me something you almost never hear from someone in his position:

“Marin, this is going up multiples.”

There are no guarantees, but I think he’s right…

The ink wasn’t even dry on their last deal before they put out more news.

In short, they are a commando team…

I have never seen, ever in my career, a management team execute with this much precision and efficiency.

But that’s what happens when the best executives in mining, who have skin in the game…

Are backed by the most successful and experienced billionaires in the sector execute their business plan.

Second, they are nowhere near done with their business plan. This is getting exciting as a shareholder.

Thirdly, this one gold stock (that I will reveal tomorrow)… Is going to experience what is called the “Double Bump”.

That is when the big index funds must buy the stock and the shares of the company get re-rated to its inherent and peer valuations.

And everyone has a chance to become an investor at the same price as the richest gold investors in the world who have signed 3-year lock-ups on their shares.

Why would the billionaires sign such a contract?

Because they see the share price going a lot higher and it’s a move to show management their commitment to the deal. Talk about de-risked.

  • The biggest names in the gold sector (which I’ll reveal tomorrow) have done the due diligence and have made large financial investments.

Now you get a chance to see what the best in the business get to see.

The “Double Bump”

There are the two words this one gold stock has that NO ONE ELSE has.

Here’s how the double bump works…

It implies the stock will get a re-rating, meaning the share price is expected to go higher, as explained to me by a billionaire investor and shareholder in the company.

One gold titan who is a shareholder revealed something incredible…

  • “I want a double bump. I don’t want to cash out. I’ve got enough money. I want to see the potential for a re-rate.”

When insiders don’t want to cash out… and they tell you it’s going up multiples… and they’re executing with lightning speed… pay very close attention.

They know exactly what’s going on.

You should too.

It will be your first-ever opportunity to see the full details of a company behind the KRO paywall.

So, watch your inbox first thing tomorrow morning.

And fasten your seatbelts.

Regards,

Marin Katusa
Founder, Katusa Research

Details and Disclosures

Katusa Research, Marin Katusa and its directors, employees and members of their households directly own shares of the following Companies which are described in this publication – Gold Royalty Corp (GROY.NYSE). Therefore, Katusa Research is extremely biased. All publications of Katusa Research represent only the opinion of the respective authors and not of the company. Gold Royalty Corp did not review this report or articles. The information in the publications of Katusa Research do not replace and are not to be taken as individual needs geared professional investment advice and is for informational purposes only.

This report and information is neither explicitly nor implicitly to be understood as guarantee of a particular price development of the mentioned financial instruments or as a trading invitation. Every investment in securities mentioned in publications of Katusa Research involve risks which could lead to a total loss of the invested capital and—depending on the investment—to further obligations for example additional payment liabilities.Katusa Research does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in this newsletter will perform as we expect, and any comparisons we have made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect. All information published in publications from Katusa Research is based on public filings and news releases.

The post Gold Stock DOUBLE BUMP Coming appeared first on Katusa Research.

After Merkel

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
Angela Merkel’s departure will leave a big hole in Germany—and much for her successor to do, says Tom Nuttall

Germany’s urgent need for greater public investment

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
Necessary new infrastructure is not being built

A troubled road lies ahead for German carmakers

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
The all-powerful automotive sector faces a challenging future

Parts of Germany are desperate for more people

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
Coping with ageing and shrinking populations is hardest in the east

The European Union will badly miss Angela Merkel

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
There is no obvious replacement for the chancellor

The attitudes of Germany’s young

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
New German voters have no memory of life before Mrs Merkel

The world needs a more active Germany

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
A passive (and pacifist) country considers a more active role

Germany needs a reforming government

The Economist Special Reports - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:43
Unfortunately, it may not get one

Adriana Delgado, nueva Senior Client Service Executive en GfK DAM

El Mundo Financiero Directivos - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 16:06

Este amplio conocimiento del mercado de las agencias y los medios de comunicación desembocaron en una etapa de seis años en Comscore, donde Adriana se encargó del acompañamiento y asesoramiento continuo a los clientes para la correcta medición de sus activos y/o aprovechamiento del uso de los datos, permitiendo la puesta en marcha de estrategias adecuadas y la consecución de los objetivos en diferentes departamentos.

En palabras de Adriana: “En los últimos seis años, la evolución del mercado digital español ha sido vertiginosa. Un mercado exigente que pide respuestas ante un panorama digital cada vez más cambiante y complejo. Por eso, formar parte de GfK en un momento clave de desarrollo de una solución innovadora y escalable como es GfK DAM supone para mí un reto muy ilusionante que afronto con mucha energía y acompañada por un excelente equipo humano”.

Carvana’s Stocks May Continue To Push Higher As Institutions by Shares

whalewisdom.com - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 13:33

Carvana Co. (CVNA) saw continued growth over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and rising by approximately 271.8% compared to the S&P’s gain of about 38.5%. Despite the stock’s continued growth and positive second-quarter results, hedge funds were selling as institutions added.

Carvana is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. As most of its business involves contactless online sales, the company has benefited from the coronavirus pandemic in many ways. Consumers’ preferences toward remote interaction and shopping have changed during the pandemic. Carvana allows them to browse, purchase and finance through a convenient online platform. Consumers may then choose between getting their vehicle delivered directly to them or picking it up at one of Carvana’s automated car vending machines. Also, the pandemic has created significant supply chain disruptions, leaving new car dealerships with minimal inventory and creating more demand for used cars from both dealerships and companies like Carvana.

Mixed Results from Hedge Funds and Institutions

Carvana saw mixed results during the second quarter activity. The aggregate 13F shares held by hedge funds decreased to about 42.8 million from 42.9 million, a mild decrease of approximately 0.1%. Of the hedge funds, 22 created new positions, 59 added to an existing holding, 31 exited, and 33 reduced their stakes. In contrast to hedge funds, institutions were buying. Overall, institutions increased their aggregate holdings by about 0.1%, to approximately 93.2 million from 93.1 million. The 13F metrics between 2017 and 2021 are a good reflection of Carvana’s rising stock price and demonstrate the potential for the stock to continue an upward trend.

(WhaleWisdom)

Two-Year Forecast has Neutral Feel

Analysts expect to see an initial decline in earnings per share, though eventually earnings and revenue are predicted to continue forward on a positive trend through to 2022. The company is forecast to have a loss of -$1.05 in December 2021, which is expected to then improve to -$0.33 by December 2022. Year-over-year estimated increases could bring over $12 billion in revenue by 2021 and $15.6 billion in revenue by 2022.

(WhaleWisdom)

Optimistic Analysts

Citigroup analyst Nicholas Jones was bullish on the stock, citing better than expected results in the second quarter. Jones raised the firm’s price target on Carvana to $405 from $375 and kept a Buy rating on shares. Chris Pierce of Needham & Co. was also enthusiastic about the stock and raised the firm’s price target to $421 from $400. Pierce noted that the pace at which Carvana’s shares have been gaining ground has accelerated, and he maintained a Buy rating on the stock.

Favorable Outlook

Carvana continues to build its customer base and show growth, benefitting from the unique environment created from the pandemic. Analysts appear bullish about this e-commerce company, raising price targets as demand for used vehicles increases. Future revenue estimates are also encouraging for investors.

Benchmarking has become circular

klementoninvesting - Lun, 09/20/2021 - 08:00

Note: This article originally appeared in the CFA Institute Enterprising Investor blog on 18 August 2021.

Time and again throughout my career I have ranted about the nonsense of benchmarking in all its forms. By now I have given up on the hope that we will ever leave benchmarking in business or investments behind, so I don’t expect this post to change anything except to make me feel better. So, indulge me for a minute or come back tomorrow…

I had a conversation recently with a friend about an organisation that we are both intimately familiar with and that has changed substantially over the last couple of years. In my view, one mistake the organisation made was to hire a strategy consulting firm to benchmark the organisation to its peers. Alas, the outcome of that exercise was to be more like their peers in order to be successful and as a result the organisation engaged in a cost-cutting and streamlining exercise in an effort to increase ‘efficiency’. And guess what, thanks to that effort many people now think that what made that organisation special has been lost and they are thinking about no longer being a customer of it.

The problem with benchmarking a company against its peers is that it is typically the fastest way into mediocrity. Strategy consultants compare companies that have a unique culture and business model to its peers and tell these companies to adopt the same methods and processes that made their peers successful in the past. But benchmarking a company that is about to change the world is outright stupid. In 2001 and 2002 Amazon’s share price dropped 80% or so. If Jeff Bezos had asked McKinsey what he should do, they would have told him to be more like Barnes & Noble.

Name a single company that has turned around from being a loser to a star performer or even changed the industry it is active in based on the advice of strategy consultants…

Or as Howard Marks put it so clearly: “You can’t do the same thing as others do and expect to outperform.”

Which brings me to investing, where pension fund consultants and other companies have introduced benchmarking as a key method to assess the quality of a fund’s performance.

Of course, if you are a fund manager your performance needs to be evaluated somehow, but why does it have to be against a benchmark set by a specific market index? The result of being benchmarked against a specific index is that fund managers start to stop thinking independently. Having a portfolio that strays too far from the composition of the reference benchmark means that a fund manager creates career risk. If the portfolio underperforms by too much or for too long, the manager gets fired. So, the result is that over time, fund managers invest in more and more of the same stocks and become less and less active. And that creates herding, particularly in the largest stocks in an index because fund managers can no longer afford not to be invested in these stocks.

Ironically, by now, the whole benchmarking trend has become circular because benchmarks are designed to track other benchmarks as close as possible. In other words, benchmarks are by now benchmarked against other benchmarks.

Take for instance the world of ESG investing. Theoretically, ESG investors should be driven not just by financial goals but also by ESG-specific goals. So their portfolios should look materially different from a traditional index like the MSCI World. In fact, in an ideal world, ESG investors would allocate capital differently than traditional investors and thus help steer capital to more sustainable uses.

So, I have gone to the website of a major ETF provider and looked at the portfolio weights of the companies in its MSCI World ETF with the weights in its different ESG ETFs. The chart below shows that there is essentially no difference between these ETFs, sustainable or not.

Portfolio weights of the largest companies in a conventional and several sustainable ETFs of the same provider

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Source: Bloomberg

The good thing about this is that investors can easily switch from a conventional benchmark to an ESG benchmark without much concern about losing performance. That helps getting institutional investors to switch.

But the downside is that there is little difference between traditional investments and sustainable investments. If practically every company qualifies for inclusion in an ESG benchmark and then has roughly the same weight in that benchmark as in a conventional benchmark, then what’s the point of the ESG benchmark? Where is the benefit for the investor? Why should companies change their business practices when they will anyway be included in an ESG benchmark with minimal effort and don’t risk losing any of their investors?

ESG benchmarks that are benchmarked against conventional benchmarks is like benchmarking Amazon against other retail companies. It will kill Amazon’s growth and turn it into another Barnes & Noble.

The strategic reverberations of the AUKUS deal will be big and lasting

The Economist International - Dom, 09/19/2021 - 20:20
A profound geopolitical shift is happening

Newbie Not sure of the process

cnczone.com Uncategorised CAM Discussion - Dom, 09/19/2021 - 18:53
So today is the day to decide the software to use with my cnc router project. I'm not sure of the electro is pieces involved. I'll lay out what I think I know and you can correct me at will.
Working backwards, i get the motor/ driver interface. Where I go dumb is from the BOB to the computer. It seems the BOB is sometimes proprietary to the cam software. So a software decision needs to be made.
Another brain fog moment comes from the insertion of andrinos and Rpi. I'm not sure why this is there. Is it so you don't have to tie a computer proper to the machine? Why the extra processor? Is it just so you can use grbl or mach? What are my software (cam) options if I just want to port from a motherboard mounted in the box (with associated hardware). Would this mean I only need controller software on this puter? Which one software?
If I run a cad system like Catia (I have it already) and use the machining work bench to create cutter paths, what do I use to post process? Does the postP determine what controller software to use? Somebody point me to a link or explain this to me
Thanks for your time and attention.

Repasando la Cartera de Javier Acción

academiadeinversion.com - Dom, 09/19/2021 - 14:33

Javier Acción, director de inversiones de Acción Inversiones repasa su cartera de inversión en 2021 del fondo Gestión Boutique Acción Global.

La entrada Repasando la Cartera de Javier Acción aparece primero en Academia de Inversión - Aprende value investing desde cero.

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