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I review the list of dividend increases as part of my monitoring process. This helps me review the story behind companies I already own. It also helps me review companies for potential inclusion into my watchlist. A long track record of annual dividend increases is an indication of a quality company with a strong business model. Its strength could be due to a favorable environment, competitive...

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Hola a todos, este va a ser mi primer post aportando algo de valor (espero) a este magnifico foro y a las personas que lo hacen posible, con quienes estoy en deuda debido a todo lo que he podido aprender gracias a los extraordinarios hilos que realizan. Ahora, que me creé la cuenta y siento que tengo algo que pueda aportarles, es mi turno de devolverles el favor. Empecemos.

La dependencia es la forma moderna de esclavitud.

Si dependes de alguien, ese alguien tiene poder sobre ti hasta tal punto que podría llegar a ser la forma moderna del amo y el esclavo. Aunque no haya violencia o abusos de por medio, hay una relación de ascendencia por parte de la persona o cosa que dependas. Esa ente externa tiene control sobre tí. No tienes elección y, por tanto, no tienes libertad.

Si tu única opción para generar ingresos es trabajar en una determinada empresa: dependes de esa empresa. Un conjunto de malas decisiones tomadas dentro de ella, un recorte de personal debido a la bajada de ingresos o cualquier motivo que esté fuera de tu control puede dejarte fuera. Y sin tu haber podido haber hecho algo por evitarlo. Eres un dependiente.

Si a ti tampoco te gusta depender, entonces tenemos que plantearnos esto de otra forma. ¿Cómo podríamos entonces dejar de ser dependientes de alguien y ser libres? Parafraseando a la persona de quién saqué el concepto:

El antídoto contra la dependencia es crearte una situación en la que te puedes permitir decir que no.

Se trata de poder decir que no aunque te vendría bien aceptarlo porque mantienes unas buenas condiciones, o porque las mejoras. Pero puedes decir que no porque, por muy bien que te venga, puedes vivir sin ello. En este momento eres libre.
Si decides trabajar para alguien, si es decisión tuya y no has cogido esa opción porque estás desesperado y lo necesitas a cualquier coste, entonces no eres un dependiente. Estás ahí porque tú mismo lo eliges, pero tendrías otras opciones si quisieras no estarlo.

Nada más lejos de la realidad, Leo Messi juega ahora mismo en el PSG porque así lo decidió, porque tenía varios clubes interesados en él y su situación actual no le obligaba escoger el primer club que se le presentase en la puerta de su casa. Desde los inicios de su carrera futbolística se creó una posición en la que ahora puede decir que no.

¿Y como hago eso? bueno… esto ya se lo dejo al autor del concepto porque esto ya se sale fuera de mi alcance, abajo tenéis la respuesta. Yo tan solo quería daros a conocer la definición de esclavitud moderna y que luego podamos debatir abajo sobre ella.

Para los curiosos que quieran seguir devorando la información, dejaré abajo la fuente de donde saqué todo esto. En ella el autor incluye un ejemplo de una persona mundialmente conocida que se creó también su propia situación en la que pudo decir que no, hablo del mismísimo Arnold Schwarzenegger. Quien pudo decir que no a que le tiraran una limosna como actor y tuviera que cogerla porque estuviera desesperado. Os recomiendo mucho la lectura completa, así tendremos más que debatir.

Para ser la primera vez que abro un hilo en esta comunidad creo que no ha quedado tan mal xD. Cierro post, nos vemos abajo

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¿Qué es un corredor de bolsa?, ¿cómo puede ayudarme?, ¿en qué puedo invertir?. Estas son algunas de las dudas que tienen algunos ahorristas que buscan convertirse en inversores y que necesitan conocer los principales aspectos de un bróker, trader o corredor de Bolsa.

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Cadre. On today’s show we discuss: Investing in institutional quality real estate How Cadre leverages technology to sort investment opportunities Multifamily real estate, and much more Listen here: Transcript here Transcript via AudioGraph Links Driving diversity through democratization Cadre – Company Fact Sheet Cadre direct access fund fact sheet Charts ...

The post Animal Spirits: Investing in Real Estate Alongside Harvard appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

This summer, we had so many floods all over the world that it has become hard to count. But the costs to taxpayers and insurance companies are real. Aon estimates that insured losses from natural disasters worldwide in the first half of 2021 were $42bn. Then the European floods hit which added another $2bn to $3bn in losses to insurance and reinsurance companies. And those are just the insured losses. The true economic losses are likely to be about ten times higher than that. In the United States alone, taxpayers are estimated to have paid $99bn in 2020 for emergency relief. And 2021 shapes out to be even more expensive.

Yet, study after study on the assets that are most at risk of floods shows that investors and asset owners are oblivious to that risk. I am talking, of course, about property. You can’t move a house and if it is too close to the ocean or a river, it will inevitably flood after heavy rainfall or as sea levels rise. Yet, a year ago, Justin Murfin and Matthew Spiegel examined sales of coastal properties in the United States and their proximity to flood areas and vulnerability to sea level rise. The result was that they didn’t find a result, i.e. they could not see any difference in house prices between properties at higher risk of flooding and properties at a safe height. There seems to be a political effect, though, with Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters moving away from flood plains and coastal properties and Republicans and Republican-leaning voters moving in. People who don’t believe in climate change are happy to buy beach front properties while people who take climate change seriously move inland with the expectation that in 20 or 30 years, their houses will have become beachfront property. In the United States, at least, the net effect is that more and more people move to coastal regions.

And it seems that moving inland or to higher ground makes a lot of sense. A new study by Claudia Tebaldi and her colleagues estimated the share of coastal properties that are so vulnerable to sea level rise that a once in 100 years flood will start to occur every year. This study piqued my interest because while my house is located in a once in 500-year flood zone in London, I am just one block away from a once in 100 years flood zone in London. So, if the study is correct, not only will I have a much shorter walk to the riverfront, but I have to expect much higher premiums for my flood insurance.

In any way, the chart below shows that even if we manage to keep global warming at 1.5C above pre0industrial levels, in 2030 about 10% of properties worldwide will experience a once in 100 years flood event on average every year. By 2050, this will have risen to 26% and in 2100 to 66%. If we can’t keep global warming below 1.5C as seems highly likely right now, then we have to expect that by 2100, 80% of houses will be exposed to 100 times higher flood risk than today.

Share of locations where 1 in 100-year floods may happen every year

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Source: Tebaldi et al. (2021)

Ignoring the societal consequences for a moment, this has significant implications for investors. First, they need to check where the property investments they buy are located. REITs that have lots of coastal properties will likely experience a larger loss in value and income from natural disasters than the average REIT and this higher risk is currently not priced into the value of these assets. Second, if you think about buying a house, please take flood information seriously. You are likely to live in your house for a long time and over time, it will become increasingly likely that flood-prone locations will sell at lower prices than safe locations. If you consider your home a form of investment or retirement savings vehicle, sea level rise can no longer be ignored as a risk factor.

And finally, should you live in an area that is at risk from sea level rise, maybe you want to develop an exit plan where at some point in the future you sell the house before these risks become priced in.

En este sentido, en el entorno de Bruselas se la conoce por ser la responsable de vehicular la relación de los medios de comunicación con el actual eurodiputado. Sin ir más lejos, y entre otras tareas, ha sido la encargada de algunas actividades en la llamada Casa de la República de Waterloo, en Bélgica, así como de encuentros con profesionales de la información durante los días de pleno de la Eurocámara.

Según adelantó ‘El Confidencial’, el sueldo de Santamaría es de 66.240 euros brutos anuales. Fue el pasado 1 de agosto cuando la actual colaboradora de Puigdemont llegó a Vicepresidencia, cartera ahora en manos de Junts per Catalunya. Ahora bien, en el pasado mandato también formaba parte del organigrama de los cargos eventuales, aunque entonces dependía de Presidencia: en concreto, desempeñaba el cargo de coordinadora en proyectos de materia de comunicación, con un sueldo de 55.676 euros brutos.

Su cargo, según el decreto

Tal como concreta el decreto de su nombramiento, la función de Santamaría es la de asesorar al vicepresidente Jordi Puigneró sobre “tendencias y factores económicos, políticos y sociales que permitan prefigurar escenarios de futuro y proponer actuaciones políticas”. Así pues, su puesto de trabajo es la sede del departamento de Políticas Digitales y Territorio, en Barcelona.

Análisis sobre las mejores opciones para saber dónde invertir ahora y cuáles son las inversiones más rentables del momento.

Europa es uno de los mercados de mayor tamaño del mundo y ofrece una amplia gama de inversiones en algunas de las principales compañías globales.

Debilidades humanas están detrás de grandes decisiones de inversión.

Last updated October 12th, 2021
Over time as organic economic growth has slowed, industry salesmen have been competing on the basis of ever-increasing fraud. Monetary market manipulation is a con man's paradise as conflict of interest has reached every corner of every market. Investors conflate their own misallocation of capital with economic improvement while ad-sponsored media pundits make their living telling investors what they desperately want to hear, afraid that if they tell the truth they will lose subscribers. In this ongoing post I will document all of today's industry assholes and their transparent criminality. What all of these economic predictions have in common is that they are all predicated upon an ever-increasing misallocation of capital. What I call "Ponzi Reflation". As we've seen over and over again, these reflationary asset bubbles are illusory. The market is now the economy which means that every rosy economic prediction is one RISK OFF event away from turning positive to negative. And when this final bubble explodes, it will reveal a level of fraud none of us have imagined in our lifetimes...


Each time commodities reached this level of overbought, the global cyclical asset reflation rally ended.





Top dumbfuck prize goes to none other than the IMF. On Tuesday October 12th they made two major predictions. One that the China Evergrande real estate meltdown would NOT get out of control and cause global contagion.
On the exact same day, the IMF predicted that global real estate (and stocks) are primed for meltdown anyways. No contagion necessary:


"The International Monetary Fund warned of the risk of sudden and steep declines in global equity prices and home values as the Federal Reserve and other central banks withdraw the support they’ve provided during the pandemic"

Let's get this straight. China has withdrawn support from the Evergrande meltdown. Therefore, it's the Fed's impending taper that will cause all the problems. Because technically, it's not contagion if everything was poised to collapse anyways.

Here we see OECD (wealthy country) home prices as a ratio of rents, which is a proxy for the relative magnitude of each global asset bubble. 




More dumbfuckery after this jump...


The second runner-up goes to this recent prediction by JP Morgan that oil prices will hit $200 in a super spike. This call is reminiscent of a similar call by Goldman Sachs back in mid-2008. The main difference is that back then oil was 100% higher than it is today. 



All of these oil predictions are solely based on the supply side and are ignoring the demand side. They automatically assume that oil demand will continue to increase in the future when it still hasn't recovered from the pandemic.





Recently we learned that Wall Street is using used car prices in order to predict inflation. The global semiconductor shortage has driven a shortage of new cars, which in turn has caused a shortage of used cars as well. As we've seen with every other supply chain bottleneck during this pandemic, the chip shortage will get ironed out in due time however in the meantime, the prices of new and used cars has skyrocketed as has dollar sales volume AND loan issuance:
Now we learn that Wall Street is using record used car sales volume to predict future inflation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/business/used-cars-inflation.html"I’ve never spent so much time looking at it,” said Robert Rosener, a senior U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. “I don’t think I’ve ever spent so much time talking about used car prices in my life, either"
Here we see via Fred that used car sales dollar volume is off the charts and loan issuance is the highest in 20 years:





With the Evergrande crisis growing in the background, this Wall Street analyst is recommending investors overweight banks in order to capitalize on what he calls "credit euphoria". 
He also cites a record stock market and its attendant record overvaluation as reasons for optimism.


"You have credit euphoria. I mean this is night and day versus the global financial crisis"


Goodnight Moon





JP Morgan came out with a note this week recommending Bitcoin as a better hedge against inflation than gold. I suggest that's because, as I've shown, gold is informing us that inflation is not the problem.



Crypto currencies are this era's purest form of Ponzi scheme. Not to be confused with central bank assisted stock market manipulation which is another type of widely embraced transparent fraud.
Crypto madness will play a key role in the impending meltdown, as investors are now using various forms of crypto loans to increase their leverage vis-a-vis the most volatile asset class.
 



This past week, Cramer predicted that Tech stocks are making a bottom at these RECORD levels.

 This chart shows that over the past decade, Tech stocks have accounted for nearly the entire market gain. The average U.S. stock dipped to 0% gain on a decade basis at the pandemic nadir.
We also see that Nasdaq breadth has deteriorated substantially to a level preceding the two prior crashes (2020, 2018):

Green and stable electricity grids will only be possible when linked together

He sold vital blueprints to Iran, North Korea and—a step too far—Libya

La tarifa estándar se incrementa un euro, hasta 12,99 euros al mes, y la 'premium' se eleva a 17,99 euros. Leer

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La gente se está replanteando lo que quiere realmente de su vida laboral. Leer

Brasil es uno de los 194 países firmantes del Acuerdo del Clima, un tratado del ámbito del Convenio-Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (Unfccc) que rige medidas de transición para una economía neutra en emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en un contexto de desarrollo sostenible, pero que, al mismo tiempo, no amenacen la producción de alimentos en el mundo y contribuyan a erradicar la pobreza. Leer