zerohedge

What Does Wall Street Like And Hate The Most About Working From Home

Now that Deutsche Bank is directly competing with BofA in polling its clients, having launched its own fund manager survey a while back, DB credit strategist Jim Reid is preparing to publish the full results of the latest monthly survey in which he polled nearly 700 people. And ahead of publishing the full survey results, he highlighted what Wall Street professionals said they like and dislike most about WFH.

People could chose up to two options: an overwhelming 68% of Wall Street workers thought the lack of commute was the best WFH factor. That was nearly double the 35% who said they liked seeing more of their family!

In terms of what people hated, it’s a lack of in-person team interaction (71%) and a lack of divide between work and home life (49%) that were well ahead.

As Reid concludes, "if companies are desperate to get people back to the office it seems investment into research into a teleporter would be a good move as commuting is by far the biggest bugbear!"

We will present more results on WFH and market-related answers, when Deutsche publishes the full poll on Monday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 05:45

The Fall Of Turkey, The Rise Of Bitcoin

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

It never ceases to amaze me how tone deaf those with power are.  

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in serious trouble for the first time in his political career.  He’s a man staring at a massive electoral problem coming this fall.

Erdogan is currently presiding over an economy in complete freefall. With recent reports of food riots over government handouts of potatoes and onions the news only seems to be getting worse there on the eve of national elections.

Turkey is emblematic of what happens to a country systemically mismanaged because of its geopolitical importance. A man like Erdogan is able to maintain power because he’s constantly schmoozing both sides of the Bosporus to get subsidies to fuel his personal ambitions.

This is part of the reason why Turkey has the largest army in NATO while the private economy has the worst foreign capital liabilities position of any major emerging market.

And it looks like Erdogan may have finally overplayed his hand too many times in the last year.

He has made multiple major missteps on the geopolitical stage, attempting to assert Turkey as a regional powerhouse only to be thwarted at every turn by Russia.  Be it Libya, Cyprus, Syria, Azerbaijan, or Iraq Putin has outplayed Erdogan at every turn.

With each of these setbacks his gambits become more and more desperate.  And he is egged on by the U.S. and the EU to make these gambits as he hides behind the shield of Turkey’s membership in NATO.

Anyone else who wasn’t so strategically important who made this many major geopolitical and military blunders would have already been overthrown. But now it looks like he’s run his full course.

This puts him in the position of thinking he can play Russia off the U.S. to his advantage and then turn around and play the U.S. off Russia for his advantage.  In all instances he only sees the upside and never the down.

His real weakness is Turkey’s foreign currency deficit which cannot be serviced nor is there any incentive for it to resolve itself because Erdogan constantly bites the hand that feeds him.  China and Russia are more than wealthy enough to have helped Erdogan balance Turkey’s books since the U.S. first attacked him financially in 2018.

I wrote about this extensively at the time.   

But Erdogan always turns on the person who last helped him thinking he’s a bigger player than he is. 

And now with President Biden acknowledging the Armenian Genocide, one of the few things Turkey and Israel have agreed on for decades, Erdogan is being told he’s no longer needed by the U.S. Erdogan has maintained power through aggressive nationalist domestic policy. His Neo-Ottoman ambitions played well at home for nearly two decades but with the Turkish economy now hollowed out by his adventurism and mismanagement of the Lira he’s is serious trouble politically in a way he hasn’t ever been.

There’s many angles here to Biden’s Armenian Genocide move here. It’s a clear rebuke of Israel while the U.S. and Iran are in deep negotiations about bringing back the JCPOA, which have made significant progress. Remember, the WEF and Europe want the JCPOA, Israel does not. And this week’s fireworks between Iran and Israel point to a dangerous future the closer we get to its reinstatement and Iran rejoining the global economy.

This leaves Turkey with almost no friends anymore as it is clear the JCPOA is supposed to be the carrot to Iran while maximum isolation stick is transferred to Russia. This is a very high-stakes game which is as much a power play by Europe against Israel and the U.K. as it is anything else.

And that leaves Turkey with a decision to make.

Today, Turkey’s foreign debt position is only marginally better than it was in 2018 and got worse over 2020.  Deleveraging in dollar terms improved and then it got worse once the Fed went back to the zero-bound after the Coronapocalypse and Erdogan let go of control of Turkey’s Central Bank.

source: tradingeconomics.com

If you are playing a game this big and understand the rules of it at the level Erdogan does, then I cannot understand why he let the Bank of Turkey reverse course after his scathing attacks on the IMF in 2018, which, to be fair were spot on and, in my opinion, the right course of action for Turkey to free itself from the vaster powers.  

But it didn’t work out that way and the situation in Turkey today is worse than it was in 2018 because now he can no longer count on Putin and/or Xi to bail him out.  All of the major powers are now tired of him and his game and are allowing him the big fall from grace.

This is why the lira is imploding and it’s why Erdogan is trying to save himself by backing the U.S.’s play in Ukraine and announcing the banning of bitcoin for payment services in Turkey. 

I’m sure the WEF and the Biden administration are happy with him for this.

The timing of this announcement was done to stifle the latest breakout to a new high in Bitcoin and undermine the Coinbase (COIN) IPO, which was very successful especially when you remember Facebook’s IPO back in 2012.  Since then it’s been one attack after another on the crypto market as I talked about in a recent post.

And it looks like it’s finally been successful in slowing down bitcoin’s momentum. First causing a big breakout in high-quality altcoins.  DASH hit $400, Decred hit $250, Litecoin went past $300, Monero threatened $375.  ARRR $15.00, And DOGE hit a truly staggering $0.45.  

They have all since finally succumbed to the same loss of momentum which is shaping up to being a significant top, possibly now, for the rest of 2021. There’s been sufficient stabilization of the U.S. treasury market with good demand for the long-end of the yield curve, evidenced by a solid 20-year auction this week, to warrant some consolidation of 2021’s immense gains.

The important thing to remember here, isn’t that bitcoin is or even was in a bubble, but that this rotation into altcoins occurred because people no longer want to rotate back to USDs or EURs.  They want custody.

And that brings me back to the counter-move by China who threw Turkey’s banks a lifeline by announcing that China’s banks can now import gold for the first time since 2019.  

Since Turkey’s banks can hold gold as reserves, the languishing gold price has really harmed them and Turkey’s financial position.   Because if a new rally in gold starts with last week’s move up in gold prices, then watch Turkey’s foreign debt position improve as well.

It won’t quell the rampant inflation, soaring food prices and any of Turkey’s other societal problems in time for elections later this year. Turks, by the look of the current polling, are beginning to see that Erdogan doesn’t have any real answers nor does he have any friends.

If they have to swallow being the only country left to refuse to admit to their own history this will be a moment of memetic collapse for them about just how far their position has fallen thanks to Erdogan’s failed adventures and failed stewardship of their wealth.

The suppression of gold was important to try and keep a lid on institutional money moving into bitcoin. China enabling some stability in gold prices should mitigate some of the downward momentum in the crypto-space, depending on how much leverage is still out there. With the U.S. economy getting an artificial boost from all the ridiculous stimulus money flowing out from D.C. in the most unsustainable way, the Fed is under no compunction to bail out emerging markets, like Turkey, short of dollars.

Erdogan had to take steps to stem the tide against the lira. Making a public move against bitcoin was the easiest thing, and obviously done to appease his partners in the West who then stabbed him in the back less than a week later. But it won’t be enough and this move may have been the strongest signal yet of how powerful bitcoin’s ability to find weaknesses in the financial system is.

Erdogan wouldn’t have made this announcement against bitcoin and cryptos if it didn’t pose a real threat to the lira. In a world where US dollar stablecoins are paying 10+% and can be bought and sold for nearly nothing, what could a Turkish bank possibly offer Turks at this point other than an unsafe place to park their money?

Turkey is rapidly approaching a serious decision point as is Erdogan. His pride has led him to places he should have never went and having bit the hands that fed him too many times, his future along with his government’s is looking grim. Thankfully for his victims there are solutions available to protect them from him.

*  *  *

UPDATE: Erdogan’s goons have now gone after the 2nd bitcoin exchange in Turkey in less than a week. These are the moves of a desperate leader.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 05:00

"The Problem Is That Your Ideas Are Stupid" - Bill Maher Blasts "Gullible" Millennials

Something strange is occurring in the gutter of "liberal comedy"... After four years of constant attacks on anything 'Trumpian' and constant ignorance of anything 'Left', one man has begun to realize that there is plenty of farce on both sides of the aisle and virtue-signaling to your cocktail party co-conspirators just doesn't pay the bills anymore (cough CNN cough).

Last week, Comedian Bill Maher used his HBO show to highlight some awkward 'facts' and ask some uncomfortable questions about media and politicians approach to COVID.

This week, he has taken aim at the heart of the problem - American Millennials and Gen Z and their total ignorance of history.

"In India, young people touch old people's feet to show reverence. In Japan, there's a national 'respect for the aged' day.

You know the reason why advertisers in this country love the 18-34 demographic... because it's the most gullible.

A third of people under 35 say they're in favor of abolishing the police...not defunding, but doing away with a police force altogether... which is less of a policy position and more of a leg tattoo.

36% of Millennials think it might be a good idea to try Communism... but much of the world did try it... I know most of Millennials think that doesn't count because they weren't alive when it happened... but it did happen, and there are people around who remember it. Pining for communism is like pining for BetaMax or MySpace.

So when you say 'you're old, you don't get it', get what? Abolish the police? ...and the Border Patrol? ... and Capitalism? ... and cancel Lincoln?

No, "I get it"... the problem isn't that I don't get what you're saying or that I'm old. The problem is that your ideas are stupid.

If you say "let's eat in the bathroom and shit in the kitchen", yeah, that's a new idea, but I wouldn't call it interior design.

You think someone 80 is hopeless because they can’t use an iPhone? Maybe the one who is hopeless is the one who can’t stop using it.

You think I'm out of it because I'm not on Twitch? Well maybe I 'get Twitch' but I just think people watching other people play video games is a waste of fucking time.

20% of Gen Z agree with the statement that "society would be better off if all property was owned by the public and managed by the government" and another 29% say 'they don't know if that's a good idea'...

Here's who does know... anyone who wasn't born yesterday!"

Watch the full monologues here (timestamped to begin at 5:13)

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 04:54

The Used Car Loan Business Is Scorching

Used car auto lenders are falling ass backward into business as the global semi shortage and supply chain bottlenecks have caused used-car prices to rocket.

This is also creating a boom for the banks that involve themselves into used car loans, which generally have higher yields than traditional new-car loans, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

Institutions like Ally Financial are benefiting from the shift. It says it'll see yields on auto originations jump to the 7% range for the rest of 2021, up from a 6.66% average in Q1. The bank's auto leasing yields have also surged, jumping to 8.6% in the most recent quarter in 2021 from 5.2% at the beginning of 2020.

Both rises in rates are happening as benchmark rates remain low.

Dealers usually borrow to finance their floor inventory, the Journal notes, and when there's supply chain disruption - as there is now - it can hurt banks' loan growth. But as supply picks up and used car prices start to fall, "for banks there may be an offset in the form of faster dealer floor-plan loan growth."

But it isn't all blue skies and rainbows for lenders: this type of environment can prompt intense competition, and automakers saw their captive financing arms gain share in the used-car loan market versus banks in 2020. 

Average rates on used car loans last year were 8.4%, down from over 9% in 2019. And the average loan term hit a record high last year. With shares of names like Ally and Capital One trading "at or above their highest price-to-book ratios in years" and potential looming credit risk, stocks of used-car loan players may already be robustly valued. 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 04:15

How Russia Could Kickstart Another Oil Price War

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is starting to feel the heat of new U.S. sanctions, as Washington is putting some additional bite into its confrontation with Moscow.

At the same time, new sanctions or even a full-out (proxy) confrontation are looming on the horizon, looking at the tensions at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Putin’s reactions are straightforward, threatening asymmetric responses to any Western pressure or military interference in the coming months. 

The still fledgling or outright weak reactions of Western governments, especially in Europe, are received in Russia as a sign of weakness. Even though current US-EU sanctions on Russian institutions and oligarchs are taking their toll, the larger picture hasn’t changed much.

Russia’s military buildup on the eastern Ukrainian border, the unilateral decision to block the Black Sea for international shipping and naval forces, in breach with the Montreux Convention, and the threat of increased US sanctions on the NordStream 2 involved parties, doesn’t seem to have changed Putin’s strategic considerations. The global critique about the Russian treatment of Navalny is seen by Moscow as external interference in an internal issue, not to be discussed even during Putin’s yearly “State of Union” address to the Russian people.

US President Biden, however, seems not to be satisfied at all with the effects of current sanctions on Russia. New, harsher measures are already planned, even after last week’s Washington decision to expel Russian diplomats and bar US banks from buying Russia’s sovereign bonds on the primary market. Until now, most US sanctions have been linked to Russian interference in US elections, cyber-attacks and its appalling treatment of the political opposition. 

Moscow’s reaction until now has been rather icy, the Bear doesn’t seem to be impressed by the threat of new sanctions. This reasonably soft Russian approach could, however, change very quickly, as Putin’s State of the Union address issues asymmetric reactions on all levels if so-called “red-lines” are crossed.

For the outside world, however, it’s not really clear what those red lines exactly are.  Moscow already has indicated that additional Western sanctions or a military build-up in the Ukraine-Black Sea arena are a red-line. Analysts are now speculating what the Russian reaction to such actions could be. 

Western analysts mainly fear a military reaction, looking at the Ukrainian issue at present. The immense military buildup on Ukrainian borders could lead to a direct open involvement of Russian troops under the pretext of ‘protecting’ Russian citizens and interests in the region, as has been done before in Georgia and other places. This full out Cold-War approach is an option not to diminish straight away, as Russian aggressive maneuvering has been building up since the Arab Spring, with its involvement in Syria and Libya being the clearest examples.

Others are wondering if a possible Russian retaliation could be through blocking oil and gas supplies to Europe and and or the U.S.

Increased energy supply dependency of the EU and the US increases Moscow’s geopolitical leverage. This situation has divided the leading European powers. Germany, for example, is hinting at opening up to Moscow, while France and the UK are taking the opposite approach. 

Then there’s the largely undiscussed nuclear option. Another oil price war. While it may seem counterintuitive to some, Moscow could decide to push down prices in order to hurt international oil and gas companies, and independent US shale companies in specific. By taking on the U.S. oil industry, Biden’s economic recovery could be dealt some serious damage.

Another oil price war could destabilize the entire U.S. shale patch, which is still recovering from last year’s oil price implosion. During 2020 Russia has grown to be the third-largest oil supplier to the United States, overtaking even Saudi Arabia. Oil analysts have noticed it, but US politicians have turned a blind eye. The power of oil suppliers should not be undervalued, especially not when it’s in the hands of a rival world power. 

An aggressive move by Moscow doesn’t necessarily have to be at the expense of others in the OPEC+ alliance. In fact, other OPEC members could actually benefit from a direct assault on US oil and gas export markets. Asian economies such as China or India will not be unhappy with lower oil prices, and Beijing even could be a supporter as it will hurt the US at a time that Washington is expanding its sphere of influence in the South China Sea.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 03:30

Second Turkish Crypto Exchange Collapses, Four Employees Arrested On Suspicion Of Fraud

Just days after major Turkish Crypto exchange Thodex collapsed, its CEO fled with a rumored $2 billion (and was reportedly detained) and dozens of people were arrested, Turkey’s cryptocurrency investors were dealt another blow as second big exchange collapsed.

In a statement posted late Friday on its website, Vebitcoin said it halted operations citing deteriorating financial conditions claiming that unspecified financial strain led to the decision — possibly caused by an unusually high number of withdrawals leading up to Turkey’s forthcoming cryptocurrency ban, according to CoinTelegraph.

“We have decided to cease our activities in order to fulfill all regulations and claims,” the announcement read in part.

Demiroren News Agency said its Chief Executive Ilker Bas and three other employees have been detained on Saturday. The Financial Crimes Investigation Board has blocked Vebitcoin’s accounts and opened a probe. Vebitcoin is - or rather was - Turkey’s fourth biggest exchange with close to $60 million in daily volumes, according to CoinGecko.com which tracks data on price, volume and market value on crypto markets. More than half of this volume came from Bitcoin, which dropped 19% this week.

On Saturday morning, Muğla chief public prosecutor Mehmet Nadir Yağcı announced in a statement to local media that four employees have been detained by law enforcement following allegations of fraud.

"Following the search and seizure operations carried out at the company headquarters and at some addresses, 4 people, who are company directors and employees, were detained. The investigation carried out by the Directorate of Cyber ​​Crimes Branch of the Muğla Police Department is carried out in a multifaceted and meticulous manner."

The collapse of Vebitcoin comes days after Thodex halted operations and its 27-year-old founder fled to Albania. Thodex had about 390,000 users according to a lawyer for the victims and losses could be as high as $2 billion, according to Turkey’s Haberturk newspaper. Police subsequently issued upwards of 75 arrest warrants and detained 62 in connection to a possible exit scam.

This week's rout marks the worst period for Bitcoin since it tumbled amid a wider slump in risk assets at the end of February with bitcoin sliding as low as $48,000 late on Sunday, amid broader weakness in the entire crypto space.

The two exchanges were part of the cryptocurrency boom that had drawn in legions of Turks seeking to protect their savings from rampant inflation and the collapsing Turkish currency. Turkish inflation hit 16.2% in March, more than three times the central bank’s target, and the lira has weakened more than 11% against the dollar this year -- its ninth consecutive year of losses - making it the year's worst performing major currency.

The boom in Turkish crypto trading which saw daily volume on local crypto markets close to $2 billion for Friday, according to data from CoinGecko.com, regulators have come knocking. In early April, Turkey’s Central Bank has banned cryptocurrencies as a form of payment from April 30, and the country has prohibited payment and electronic money institutions from mediating money transfers to cryptocurrency platforms.

Central Bank chief Sahap Kavcioglu said more regulations are in the pipeline in a televised interview on Friday. “We are working on regulations in terms of cryptocurrency,” he said. “There are disturbing money outflows to outside of Turkey via cryptocurrencies.”

Turkey's crypto ban has become a hot-button issue, as opposition leaders have voiced support for crypto.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 02:45

The Ignorant World And What to Do About It

Authored by Joakim Book via The American Institute for Economic Research,

A spectre is haunting the Western world – the spectre of a grossly mistaken understanding of the world. 

British kids have nightmares about the climate. Half of French respondents think it likely that climate change will cause “the extinction of the human race.” American teachers coddle students who have panic attacks when wildfires rage somewhere on the planet. Eco-anxiety has clearly gripped the Western world, but what’s worse is that most people have a dismal outlook on all of humanity’s progress, not just climate change. 

Because slow changes don’t get noticed, and because humans use mental shortcuts to understand the world, we end up with a grossly misinformed view of what is. The late Hans Rosling, the Swedish professor of international health that most of us know as the excited man on YouTube (the one who explains the progress of the world with bubbles and giant blocks), dedicated his life to dispelling these misperceptions. The Gapminder Foundation that now carries on his legacy writes

“Our ignorance surveys have shown that the general public is misguided about many basic global facts. Reliable global statistics exist for nearly every aspect of global development, but these numbers are not transformed into popular understanding because using and teaching statistics is still too difficult.” 

Gapminder routinely asks 12 questions (sometimes with a thirteenth question on global temperatures, which most people tend to get right) about basic, uncontroversial, changes in global development – multiple-choice questions on things like demographic change, how many girls in poor countries finish primary school, and what’s happened to extreme poverty in the last twenty years. 

The results are terrible, but it’s not a question of ignorance. If people genuinely didn’t know, by chance alone they’d pick the right answer a third of the time: this is the chimpanzee threshold. Instead, the average human gets 2.2 answers right. The results for some questions, like global life expectancy (50, 60, or 70 years?), ought to scare us more than any dismal vision of climate change. Having more than doubled since 1900, the global improvements in the last forty years seem to have passed most smart people by. Of students and faculty at top universities less than one in five manage to get this right – even Nobel Laureates underperform the chimps. The worst-performing groups were Swedish trade unionists (10% got the answer right) and Norwegian teachers (7% correct). In one memorable lecture, Rosling animatedly exclaimed “What in the world are you teaching the kids?!”

In that one line lies much of the problem for our continued misinformation about the world. 

Media coverage inundates us with a constant flow of catastrophes from one part or the world or another, while overlooking the great non-events of the world. When super cyclones kill 128 people instead of the hundreds of thousands they used to or would have, we don’t even hear about them. When hundreds of thousands of people are lifted out of extreme poverty a day, every day, that’s no longer newsworthy. The result is, Gapminder notes, that “people end up carrying around a sack of outdated facts that you got in school (including knowledge that often was outdated when acquired in school).”

Counteracting that requires information and an updated framework for thinking about the world. To embrace the notion that things gradually get better – not worse – as we solve more problems, invent better things, and bring more people into the global marketplace. The return of such an optimist mentality (Rosling prefers ‘possibilist’) requires nothing more than accepting that “facts are better than myths – especially for understanding the world.”

Thou shalt not misinform

To say that the world is getting better is not to be complacent about its problems. It is not to be Pollyannaish about the future or believe that from here the only way is up. It’s to say that, on net and over time, the world gets better. It’s to say that progress is hard-earned; that it’s a gradual process, with deep structural and historical roots; that the small heavens we may create in our own lives combine to make the entire world slightly less bad than it was yesterday. I work for you doing what I’m good at; you work for me doing what you’re good at – and inventors and entrepreneurs halfway around the world figure out ways to do things that make both our lives better.  

This isn’t a predetermined path, and it most certainly isn’t always up. Last year was a setback in just about every way we know how to measure (mortality, life expectancy, poverty). The twentieth century saw some of humanity’s worst atrocities: world wars, genocide, autocrats. Sometimes progress pauses, and sometimes our past progress gives rise to new challenges we have yet to overcome – like the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere from the coal and oil we burned for (great!) use as fuel, production, and transportation. 

While that’s a global challenge to talk seriously about with our children, we don’t have to overdo it. Imbuing them with mistaken doom-mongering helps nobody. When we do, we’re not setting up the next generation for a flourishing world, or even a factful one. 

Nobody told these kids that wildfires destroy less area now than they used to and forests in California burned much more before Europeans arrived. Deaths from natural disasters, those like storms, hurricanes, and floods that we usually associate with worsening climate change, are massively down over almost any time frame, even though we are many more people on the planet. Child mortality is falling everywhere around the globe, and we produce more food than we ever have. None of those trends are about to suddenly stop, reverse, and undo the progress we’ve already made. 

What is the point of studying when the world is collapsing around us?

This is a point that many schoolchildren have raised, Greta Thunberg perhaps most prominently. The world is heading for an urgent climate disaster, so why should they study for a future they won’t have? 

One reason would be to learn that the world isn’t collapsing, that things are getting better – even though the pandemic coverage and climate change alarmism seem to suggest otherwise. Disasters are quick and sudden; progress is slow and hard-won. We live longer, healthier, safer, better, and more fulfilling lives, with better access to almost anything you can imagine. So far, human ingenuity has outpaced anything that a hostile planet has thrown at us or a declinist mentality has conjured up.

In all this mess, thankfully, there’s at least one thing you can do: imbue your child not with the dangers of the world, but with the factful progress of the world. This is what Tony Morley, a fellow traveler and prominent advocate for progress, is doing: Targeted at 6-to-12-year-olds, Morley is bringing together a hundred one-page stories about the forces, the people, and the astonishing history of how humans have progressed and collectively improved our global living standards. Human Progress for Beginners tries to

“tell the dramatic history of human civilization and the jagged upward path of improved living standards in the last 250 years. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, civilization has experienced the greatest increase in living standards, prosperity, and well-being in our species’ history. […] Human Progress for Beginners will tell the untold story of progress for young readers in a bright and engaging book, the likes of which has never been attempted.”

Chapters span the innovations that rocked our world: the printing presses, steam power, and combustion engines; the history of living standards, of light, and of food; and the progress of literacy, peace, and pollution. 

“Progress forward,” Morley emphasizes, “is not progress completed,” and our world certainly has room for improvement. But that’s not reason enough to despair and invoke the doom-and-gloom zeitgeist of “civilizational decline,” “apocalypse,” or “climate emergency.” Instead, we ought to celebrate our achievements, even in the areas that many of our young people now believe are irrevocably destroyed. 

It’s a counterintuitive notion and a difficult thing to wrap one’s head around, that the world can both be better and is still in many respects bad. We do nobody any favors, least of all our children, by exaggerating one while forgetting how far we’ve come.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/26/2021 - 02:00

Illinoisans Overwhelmingly Oppose Racial Indoctrination Rampant In Schools, Yet They Cower In Silence

By Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

Illinois’ political establishment is far out of touch with the general public on the racial dogma now forced on students from kindergarten through college. Yet a stunning two-thirds of Illinoisans say they don’t speak up, thereby ceding control to an intolerant, extremist minority.

The proof is in a poll released last month that was mostly buried and ignored by the press. It primarily addressed what schools now teach as unquestionable truth: critical race theory, often called anti-racism or wokism.

Illinoisans don’t like it. The American Council of Trustees and Alumni, which commissioned the poll, summarized their findings this way:

A majority  of respondents  favor equipping teachers to develop core skills and competencies over the encouragement of  progressive  political activism.  Illinoisans  also  favor  a curriculum that  focuses  on “American founding principles and . . . documents” over  one that  incorporates  key  tenets of the  New York Times’ 1619  Project.  At  the post secondary level,  strong  majorities  oppose reducing police presence on campus;  support viewpoint diversity; favor a merit-based application process;  and  prioritize  reducing the cost of tuition over expanding  diversity  and equity  programs.     

That’s completely at odds with mandates from the state’s politicians and education officials. The Illinois State Board of Education recently approved woke teaching standards with its “Culturally Responsive Teaching and Learning Standards” for K-12 education, and the state earlier made “implicit bias” training required by law for Illinois teachers.

Among the survey’s specific findings:

• Sixty-two percent of Illinoisans say it’s more important to expose students to a variety of perspectives, compared to just 23% who want teachers to embrace progressive viewpoints and perspectives; 15% were not sure where they stood. The view was shared by a plurality of Democrats (49.6%) as well as majorities of Republicans (78%) and Independents (69%).

• Illinoisans reject a core piece of woke teaching, 1619 Project published by The New York Times, which aims to “reframe the country’s history” by putting slavery and its enduring consequences “at the very center of our national narrative.” Forty-eight percent of respondents favored a focus on “American founding principles and . . . documents,” compared to 38% who favored “new curriculums that teach children to understand that America is founded on slavery and remains systemically racist today.”

• 57% of respondents said training programs should focus on making teachers better equipped to help students develop core skills and competencies, not on social justice or progressive politics. Just 34% said the priority should go toward teaching progressive viewpoints and social justice advocacy to help teachers overcome their own biases and build more inclusive classrooms

• “A resounding 84% of respondents,” according to the poll’s sponsor, said that “all people should be treated equally on merit” when the question was posed in general terms. When asked to think about the college admissions process specifically, 63% answered that “all people should be treated equally based on merit, even if that results in less racial diversity at selective colleges and universities,” including 89% of Republicans, 62% of Independents and a plurality (47%) of Democrats.

The polling was done by a reputable firm, Eighteen92, which surveyed 800 Illinois residents.

That last bullet point above is particularly striking because it means Illinoisans even oppose affirmative action, and it’s affirmative action that is systemic in most of America, not racism.

Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising since even Californians oppose affirmative action. In November they voted overwhelmingly to retain their constitutional ban on affirmative action, which is another story that was buried. “The margin of defeat, 56 to 44 percent, was striking to students of political history, because it suggests that race neutrality is more popular now than when it was initially mandated by a 1996 ballot initiative that passed by a slightly smaller margin,” said The Atlantic, which did cover it.

Most significant of all, however, is that over two-thirds of Illinoisans say they are afraid to speak up on these issues.

Why?

Because they fear the mob.

Sixty-four percent of respondents reported that they stop themselves from expressing their opinion on controversial political and social issues “often” (30%) or “sometimes” (34%), with an additional 18% doing so “rarely,” according to the survey sponsor. No surprise there. National surveys, as the sponsor wrote, “have repeatedly shown that political correctness has silenced important discussions—among students on college campuses and in the broader marketplace of ideas.”

Of those who reported self-censoring, 22.4% said the main reason they do so is because they are worried about unfair criticism, while 22.0% answered that they are “worried about professional or academic consequences” for saying the wrong thing.

This must end.

Critical race theory is perhaps the most pernicious and destructive movements our age. It is a doctrine of hatred and division designed purposefully to stoke racial division, just as countless tyrannical movements throughout history have inflamed racial division to divide and conquer.

It expressly rejects the goals of color blindness and the melting pot, which have been among the most noble aspirations of America and most all of the Western Hemisphere. By asserting that race, not character, fundamentally defines all humans, it rejects, at its core, the most fundamental premise of our society – that all men are created equal.

Yet it gains momentum every day. “When I say that critical race theory is becoming the operating ideology of our public institutions, I am not exaggerating, wrote a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute this week in City Journal. “[F]rom the universities to bureaucracies to K-12 school systems, critical race theory has permeated the collective intelligence and decision-making process of American government, with no sign of slowing down.”

What the majority lacks is courage. Courage to stand one’s ground in the face of a mob. Courage to speak up to politicians, administrative officials and school boards. From that City Journal column:

Above all, we must have courage, the fundamental virtue required in our time: courage to stand and speak the truth, courage to withstand epithets, courage to face the mob, and courage to shrug off the scorn of elites. When enough of us overcome the fear that currently prevents so many from speaking out, the hold of critical race theory will begin to slip. And courage begets courage. It’s easy to stop a lone dissenter; it’s much harder to stop 10, 20, 100, 1,000, 1 million, or more who stand up together for the principles of America. Truth and justice are on our side. If we can muster the courage, we will win.

“I Refuse to Stand By While My Students Are Indoctrinated.” That’s the title under which a New York teacher last week published his case for why children “are afraid to challenge the repressive ideology that rules our school.”

Read his column. Find your own way to show the courage he has. Do not stand by while our children are indoctrinated.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 23:30

Yuan Forward Sales Surge To Highest Since 2015

Another month, another gaping discrepancy between Chinese FX reserve data and actual yuan cross-border flows.

In the same month that PBOC data revealed that FX reserves stood at US$3,170bn in March, $35BN lower than February (granted mostly on valuation effect, which when netted out implies that FX reserves declined by $4bn), Goldman has calculated that net FX flows were actually $34BN into the Chinese economy.

According to Goldman's Maggie Wei, in March, there was $2BN in net inflows via onshore outright spot transactions,and US$7BN in net inflow via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions, while a separate SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” shows that domestic banks saw net RMB receipt of $25BN from onshore to offshore. Combining the three, Goldman's "preferred" FX flow measure suggests a total of $34BN inflows in March, which while slightly slower than February, was a mirror image of the picture implied from FX reserve data.

Digging deeper into the numbers reveals that FX inflows related to the goods trade surplus remained strong at $26BN in March, even higher than the single month goods trade surplus at $14bn in March. The FX conversion ratio for net goods trade surplus in Q1 2021 stood at 81%, higher than 45% in Q4 2020. Services trade related FX outflow in March was modestly higher at $6BN, vs $2BN in February.

FX inflows notwithstanding, China’s net foreign exchange settlement, which the US Treasury considers a more comprehensive proxy for intervention because it includes the activities of China’s state-owned banks, and surged to about $180 billion last year, remained persistently wide compared to the modest decline in PBOC FX assets. As a reminder, historically these two data series have tracked each other closely but a striking divergence emerged since last November.

Commenting on China's FX shennanigans, Bloomberg's Ye Xie notes that yuan forward transactions surged as corporates hedged their currency exposure, with settlement data showing that yuan-forward sales surged in March to the highest since 2015 as China’s currency weakened during the period. "The increased trading of currency derivatives is a healthy development, suggesting Chinese companies have become more prudent managing their currency exposure" according to Wang Chunying, spokeswoman for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

As Xie summarizes the above, hedging activities soared since October when regulators cut the reserve requirement to make it less costly to sell the yuan in forwards. It may have helped lower currency volatility. Separately, the settlement data showed net foreign currency inflows continued last month, albeit at a slower pace, as strong exports offset small bond outflows.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 23:00

Here's What Data Says About The Myth Of "Racism" In Police Killings

Authored by John Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics.com,

President Biden claimed that Derek Chauvin's conviction on Tuesday "ripped the blinders off for the whole world to see the systemic racism" of police. With the police shooting that same day of 16-year-old girl in Columbus, Ohio, the White House again pushed the racism claim, noting that this was just another example of how "police violence disproportionately impacts Black and Latino people."

But where is the evidence for these claims? In Chauvin's trial, the prosecution never once mentioned evidence that the now-former officer is racist. A day after the verdict, the Biden administration announced plans for a pattern-or-practice investigation of the Minneapolis Police Department to determine if there is such racism, but the administration’s comments sure sound as if they have already determined the study’s outcome.

In the other case, body camera footage released by police revealed that Ma'Khia Bryant was fatally shot as she charged another girl with a knife. The officer shot one black girl in an attempt to save what appears to be another black girl from being stabbed.

Politicians such as Biden as well as the media have helped create a biased perception that is far from the reality of shootings by police.

In a study, the Crime Prevention Research Center (where I serve as president) found that when a white officer kills a suspect, the media usually mention the officer's race. When the officer is black, news coverage rarely mentions that detail.

And there's evidence that blacks aren't all that fed up with the police. A July 2017 Quinnipiac University poll in New York City found that blacks strongly support the cops in their neighborhoods — 62% approved compared to just 35% who disapproved. That approval rating was 11 percentage points higher than for the New York City Police Department as a whole. It makes sense that people only know their local cops, and rely on media reports to form impressions about other areas they are less familiar with. A 2020 Monmouth University poll found that 72% of both blacks and whites are satisfied with their local police.

There is other evidence. If blacks don't trust the police, they presumably won't turn to them as frequently as whites when a crime occurs. Yet, blacks report violent crime to police at a higher rate than either whites or Hispanics, even when controlling for income levels. Low- and middle-income blacks are about 11 percentage points more likely to report violent crimes to police.

Through extensive research, we found 2,699 police shootings across the nation from 2013-2015. That's far more than the FBI found, since its data is limited to only 1,366 cases voluntarily provided by police departments. The FBI data has other shortcomings, too: It disproportionately includes cases from heavily minority areas, giving a misleading picture of the frequency at which blacks are shot.

Our database keeps track of characteristics of both the suspect and the officer involved in each shooting, local violent crime rates, demographics of the city and police department, and many other factors that help determine what causes police shootings.

Officers kill blacks at a higher rate than their share of the population: 25% of the suspects killed were black, 45% white, and 16% Hispanic. As for where the deaths are occurring, black suspects tend to die in heavily black larger cities with populations averaging over 600,000, while whites are killed in smaller cities with an average population of 250,000. 

White suspects were slightly more likely to be holding a firearm than blacks (63% to 61%). Black and white suspects were both equally likely to be involved in violent crime when they lose their lives at an officer’s hands, though blacks who died were more likely to be involved in drug or property offenses. But police generally have more challenging jobs in cities where blacks are killed. The average city where blacks are killed had a 61% higher violent crime rate and 126% higher murder rate than where the average white was killed.

After accounting for these and other factors, including averaged cultural differences in police departments, we found that black officers were at least as likely as their white peers to kill black suspects, but that black officers were more likely to kill unarmed blacks than were white officers.

The data offered some clues for how to reduce these fatal incidents. It can’t explain all instances, such as George Floyd’s case where Floyd resisted arrest by four officers, or possibly the Columbus case where an attack by a knife-wielding suspect was already in process. But, usually, when more police are present at the scene of a confrontation with a suspect, the odds of a fatality decline. There is about a 14% to 18% reduction in the suspect's chances of being killed for each additional officer present. Officers feel more vulnerable if they are alone at the scene, making them more likely to use deadly force. Also, suspects may be emboldened and resist arrest when fewer officers are present.  

It is a dangerous fiction that prejudiced white officers are going out and disproportionately killing black men.

But that doesn't mean that measures can't be taken to reduce shootings by police. The most obvious step would be to increase the number of officers responding to a call, to avoid forcing lone, vulnerable officers to make life-or-death decisions.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 22:30

"It's Like Hand To Hand Combat" - Doctors Mull Strategies For Boosting Vaccine Demand Amid Fears 'Herd Immunity' Now Out Of Reach

Now that President Biden has reached his goal of 200M COVID-19 jabs administered across the US, Americans should expect fewer updates about the vaccination effort. Why? Because from here on out, the pace of new vaccinations is expected to slow substantially now that the vaccine rollout has hit a critical inflection point. As former FDA Director (and current Pfizer board member) Dr. Scott Gottlieb predicted a few weeks back, the US will "struggle" to reach herd immunity.

Since then, mass vaccination centers have been shut down in states across the US. Even in wealthy, deep-blue states like Connecticut, local officials are warning that demand for the new jabs is waning. In many states, unused vaccines are beginning to pile up, leaving thousands of jabs to spoil, while more than 100 countries have yet to receive even a single jab.

In CT, the New Haven Register carried a warning from a top doctor from the Yale University health-care system. Dr. Thomas Balcezak, the chief clinical officer at Yale-New Haven, warned that CT might not reach herd immunity.

He spoke about the slackening in demand:  "Right around 55 percent of the state vaccinated: half is there and half has not yet been vaccinated."

"A slack in that demand tells us the second half of the state isn’t seeking vaccinations with the same ferocity as the first half did. I hope that trend changes," Balcezak said.

And that's a problem, Dr. Balcezak added, because the expectations for herd immunity require between 70% and 80% of the adult population to be vaccinated. And if that level isn't achieved quickly enough, mutant strains of the virus might be able to get the upper hand, as more vaccinated individuals fall ill despite being - in theory - immune to "severe" effects of the illness.

Over the weekend, the New York Times published a story warning that the federal government is already considering new tactics to encourage more people to accept the vaccines, including allowing people to receive the jabs directly from their own doctors. Unfortunately, for these new strategies to be implemented country-wide, a new logistical obstacle will need to be overcome: vaccines will need to be shipped in much smaller batches.

"If you think of this as a war,” said Michael Carney, the senior vice president for emerging issues at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, "we’re about to enter the hand-to-hand combat phase of the war."

However Pfizer, Moderna and J&J - which just received permission to continue doling out the shots despite concerns about rare and deadly blood clots - decide to tackle these problems, it has become clear that the timeline for "herd immunity" sketched out below looks almost impossibly optimistic.

To try and make it easier for adults hoping to get vaccinated, President Biden this week urged employers to allow their workers paid time off, if necessary, to allow them to get vaccinated.

Whether these new targeted methods will make a difference in vaccination rates is unclear. As the NYT pointed out, vaccination rates vary widely at the state level.

But the distribution is uneven: While New Hampshire has given at least one shot to 59 percent of its citizens (that figure includes children, most of whom are not yet eligible), Mississippi and Alabama are languishing at 30 percent.

The laggards are trying to adjust. In Louisiana, where 40 percent of the adult population has had one shot even though all adults have been eligible since March, officials are delivering doses to commercial fishermen near the docks and running pop-up clinics at a Buddhist temple, homeless shelters and truck stops. Civic groups are conducting door-to-door visits, akin to a get-out-the-vote effort, in neighborhoods with low vaccination rates.

Some southern doctors are directly emailing patients to encourage them to get vaccinated.

In Alabama, Dr. Scott Harris, the state health officer, is trying to reach rural white residents, who are mistrustful of politicians and the news media. Dr. Harris is asking doctors to record cellphone videos, with a plea: “Please email them to your patients, saying, ‘This is why I think you ought to take the vaccine.’”

According to the NYT, those in charge of the vaccine rollout have started to compare this late-stage of the adult vaccination rollout to the "ground game" seen in the final phase of a hard-fought political campaign.

White House and state health officials are calling this next phase of the vaccination campaign "the ground game,” and are likening it to a get-out-the-vote effort. The work will be labor intensive - much of it may fall on private employers - but the risk is clear: If it takes too long to reach “herd immunity," the point at which the spread of the virus slows, worrisome new variants could emerge that evade the vaccine.

"If you think of this as a war," said Michael Carney, the senior vice president for emerging issues at the US Chamber of Commerce Foundation, "we’re about to enter the hand-to-hand combat phase of the war."

But the executive director of another national health organization said these efforts might not amount to much. At the end of the day, the people who want the vaccine have had every opportunity to seek it out. What's left are people who are more skeptical of the vaccine. And the recent issues surrounding rare side effects tied to the J&J jab probably haven't helped to dissuade them.

"There are states where they feel they have hit the wall," said Michael Fraser, the executive director of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. "The folks that wanted it have found it. The folks that don’t want it are not bothering to find it."

Circling back to the situation in Connecticut, Dr. Balcezak pointed out that rumors about patients who suffered severe COVID-19 symptoms - or even succumbed to the virus - despite being fully vaccinated have also hurt the prospects for the rollout: there have been about a dozen cases across Connecticut where people who were fully vaccinated who nevertheless were hospitalized for COVID-19. Balcezak said one of those people later died, although the patient had "underlying respiratory illnesses."

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 22:00

GOP Lawmaker Urges FBI To Reassess Decision Concluding 2017 Baseball Shooting Was "Suicide By Cop"

Authored by Samuel Allegri via The Epoch Times,

Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) is asking the FBI to reassess their decision to classify the June 14, 2017 baseball field shooting outside of Washington as “suicide by cop” rather than a domestic terrorism case.

Wenstrup was present when the Republican legislators were targeted by left-wing extremist James Hodgkinson, who fired over 100 rounds at them and other staff, severely injuring House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), who was hit on the hip and recovered after many surgeries.

The letter, (pdf) which protests and asks for a reassessment, was addressed to FBI Director Christopher Wray last week and made available to reporters on Wednesday.

The shooter is known to have posted angry messages about then-president Donald Trump and other Republicans. He was wounded during gunfire exchange with Capitol Police and later died at the scene.

“According to FBI Special Agents, the attacker’s motivation was ‘suicide by cop,'” Wenstrup wrote.

“This conclusion defies logic and contradicts the publicly known facts about the perpetrator and the attack. The shooter had an extensive social media record highlighting his hatred of President Trump and Republicans. He had a list of names—including Republican Members of Congress—in his possession. Before carrying out his attack, he asked if the Members at the baseball field were Republicans or Democrats,” Wenstrup wrote.

“He was heavily armed, sought cover during the shooting, well over 100 rounds were fired, and the attacker could not have known that then-Majority Whip Steve Scalise’s security detail was present given that they were in an undercover vehicle and in plain clothes. All these facts are inconsistent with a designation of ‘suicide by cop.’”

He then expresses his frustration, saying that the FBI didn’t conduct thorough interviews at the outset of the investigation, claiming that neither he nor his colleagues were interviewed as witnesses.

“As a member who was present during the attack and the November 2017 briefing, and as a senior member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, I request that the FBI Counterterrorism Division promptly review the investigative findings, interview all relevant witnesses, and update, as appropriate, the investigative conclusions—including an internal investigation of how the FBI reached its ‘suicide by cop’ conclusion,” Wenstrup wrote in conclusion.

Wenstrup pointed out that the  Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence recognized the incident as an act of domestic violent extremism, where the shooter was politically motivated and deliberately targeted GOP members.

The appeal to reassess also drew support from Democrats.

“I actually would like to associate my—your comments with my interest in wanting to pursue that as well, Dr. Wenstrup,” Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), said, according to Politico.

“I’d like to second Dr. Wenstrup’s questions on the near massacre of our colleagues in 2017,” Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) said. “So I, like my colleague, Jackie Speier, have a particular interest in that.”

House Republican Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) uses crutches after returning to Capitol Hill for the first time after being shot in June at a congressional baseball team practice in Alexandria, Va., in Washington on Sept. 28, 2017. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

Scalise asserted strongly that the incident was evaluated wrongly by the FBI.

“I was shot by a deranged Leftist who came to the baseball field with a list of Congressional Republicans to kill,” he wrote on Twitter.

“This was NOT ‘suicide by cop.’ End of story.”

I was shot by a deranged Leftist who came to the baseball field with a list of Congressional Republicans to kill.

This was NOT “suicide by cop.”

End of story. https://t.co/cSGYZeQO3I

— Steve Scalise (@SteveScalise) April 21, 2021

The Epoch Times reached out to the FBI for comment.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 21:30

The Catalyst For The Next Leg Higher: Buyback Blackout Period Just Ended

Now that even Wall Street's perennial permabull, JPMorgan, has joined most other major banks including Goldman, Deutsche and Morgan Stanley in warning that the coming weeks and months could be treacherous for stocks (DB went so far as predicting a 10%+ correction in the next three months), and saying on Friday that "easy equity gains for the broad market are likely behind us" and as a result its "bullish conviction is now lower", a caution which spooked retail and hedge fund investors alike, with Goldman Prime reported on Friday that its book "saw the largest net selling in 5 weeks (-2.1 SDs), driven by short sales and long sales (4 to 1) and equally by Single Names and Macro Products."

Yet despite the selling stocks have continued to confound everyone, thanks to what we said would be yet another short squeeze, and rose back to all time highs amid mounting bearish sentiment.

And just to add to the confusion, a new catalyst has emerged which is almost assured to push the S&P decisively into record territory.

According to Goldman's John Flood, the Buyback blackout period ended on Friday, with the strategist noting what we previously discussed, namely that buyback authorizations "are already up meaningfully vs prior year YTD values." To wit, "2021 YTD authorizations are +75% vs 2020 YTD auths, +24% vs 2019 auths, and +26% vs 2018 auths (reminder, 2018 was a record buyback year)."

Of course, we already knew this as we reported last month that "Stock Buybacks Soar To All Time High"...

... a reminder of just how short collective memory is, as barely a year ago, the media, Congress and the broader public all rightfully slammed US corporations for having spent the bulk of their cash in the past decade on stock buybacks, and not on building a rainy day fund... which is why everyone demanded a government bailout in the immediate aftermath of the covid crisis.

And since nothing ever changes on Wall Street, expect another burst in buybacks in the coming weeks - much of it funded by the trillions in new corporate debt issued over the past year - not only propping up risk but pushing it to a new all time high.

How high? Here are the details in terms of Goldman desk flows: "we are currently running 1.6x vs 2020 FY ADTV, 1.0x vs 2019 FY ADTV, and 0.9x vs 2018 FY ADTV and we expect this to continue to pick up as we move into open window starting next week. So in other words, 2021 has more authorizations than 2018 (record buyback year), but is only pacing .9x the ADTV (actual purchases) of 2018 so far. That could suggest more purchases to come, or corporates saving their ammo."

What could they be saving their ammo for? Why the next 5-10% pullback of course, at which point they will instruct their banks - such as Goldman - to lift every offer, quickly recovering all losses and pushing the  market to its next all time high.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 21:00

No, Dogecoin Does Not Compete With Bitcoin

Authored by Peter St.Onge via CryptoEconomy substack,

Elon Musk’s dogecoin tweets have given the coin a nice run, sending its price from fractions of a penny - where it traded for roughly 8 years - to 40 cents on April 20th before falling back. It was enough to yank bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff from watching his gold portfolio do nothing - also for roughly 8 years - to crow that “dogecoin is eating bitcoin” and begging dogecoiners to put laser beams on their nose.

So what’s the story, is dogecoin set to overtake bitcoin and then USD to become the world’s reserve currency?

Very wow, but no.

The short answer is because dogecoin and bitcoin serve fundamentally different purposes: at best, dogecoin is one of many medium of exchange (MOE) coins, while bitcoin stands alone as a stable and secure store of value (SOV) where people park their life savings. In other words, dogecoin doesn’t compete with bitcoin any more than your dinner plates compete with your refrigerator, pantry, or freezer.

Let’s first get out of the way that dogecoin was started as a joke. Critics use this to variously criticize dogecoin itself or to criticize bitcoin as joke-by-contagion. Alas, the universe does not care why you invented something. Gunpowder was invented for fireworks, not war, and coca cola was invented to get high, not for kids to enjoy with a Happy Meal. Twitter was invented as a podcasting platform, Facebook as a knock-off Hot or Not, and Wikipedia as the most authoritative source of human knowledge. The universe does not care why you invented something, users decide.

So, with that, what is dogecoin? Like bitcoin, it’s a POW (“proof of work”) coin where transaction processors vote on the rules of the game including how new coins are produced. There are 129 billion dogecoins in existence, with 5 billion new coins issued per year, for 3.9% annual supply inflation. The 5 billion is constant, meaning dogecoin’s inflation rate gets lower and lower as new coins add to a larger base—in 4 years, it falls to 3.3%. 

For comparison, there are 18.6 million bitcoins in existence, growing at 330,000 per year, for annual supply inflation of 1.7% per year. Bitcoin’s supply inflation also declines, halving every four years, so in 2024 supply inflation falls under 1% per year when it will be lower than gold’s supply inflation of about 1.5% per year.

Next up, speed and fees. While bitcoin creates a new block of transaction records every 10 minutes, dogecoin creates one every 1 minute. However, given dogecoin’s smaller ecosystem (market capitalization, miners) you’d want to wait for multiple block confirmations to be sure. The crypto exchange Kraken, for example, requires 40 dogecoin blocks—40 minutes—before considering a deposit valid, the same time they require for bitcoin. So it’s a functional tie on speed.

Next, fees. Dogecoin has been very cheap until recently; a year ago it cost a fifth of a penny to send a transaction. It does have slightly more capacity than bitcoin, but the main reason was almost nobody was using dogecoin, so it was like buying space on an empty cargo ship. Alas, now that Elon’s tweets have lifted dogecoin from the muck, those fees are rising, today at $1.09. More on this later, since it goes to dogecoin’s long term prospects as an MOE.

So far, a Peter Schiff might say “sure, it all sounds like a bitcoin clone.” And that brings us to the important question: how people use it. We can read this directly off valuation as a ratio of usage. This tells us, fundamentally, if people are using dogecoin to store savings like they do in bitcoin, or if they’re simply using dogecoin for transactions. 

On that count, dogecoin today is going for 35c, making those 129 billion coins worth $45 billion. While bitcoin’s 18.6 million coins are currently worth $1 trillion. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap says 66 billion dogecoins are currently traded daily, worth about $23 billion, and 1 million bitcoins are traded daily, worth about $55 billion. Divide the two and you get a market value of bitcoin at 20x daily volume, but just 2x for dogecoin. This is telling us, loud and clear, that dogecoin is not a store of value. It may not even be a very good medium of exchange, since pure MOE coins like monero or dash trade around 4x daily volume.

Why does the market think dogecoin’s a lousy place to park your life savings? We can speculate that, given it was essentially abandoned for 8 years and is populated by charming but low-commitment users, it cannot begin to compete with bitcoin’s social layer, network effects, brand trust and loyalty, holder dedication and stability, and even bitcoin’s enormous energy use that increases security by increasing the cost of an attack. This last point is important considering that sovereign attack has been the final battle that has killed every previous private money in history.

So, if dogecoin isn’t seen as an SOV for solid reasons, it means it doesn’t even compete with bitcoin. Any more than your dinner plates compete with your fridge. Both are inputs to eating food, yes, but they involve different stages with negligible overlap. For example, if you buy a nicer set of plates you don’t empty out the fridge, and if you buy a bigger fridge or move it where you can reach it easier, you don’t feel the need to go buy smaller plates. And, germane to market capitalization, the vast majority of the food you own is in your fridge or even freezer (“cold storage”), not sitting on a plate at any given moment. Just as the vast majority of people’s life savings are in a bank, house, or stocks, not sitting in their pants pocket to be whipped out at 7/11.

It’ll have to be a separate article, but the wider lesson here - beyond dashing Peter Schiff’s dreams of a Dogecoin Standard - is that bitcoin skeptics are way off when they complain about bitcoin fees or 10 minute blocks. Bitcoin doesn’t pretend to be a medium of exchange, and it hasn’t for years. Users hold it to be a store of value, and it turns out it’s a damn fine one. Nothing else comes close, and certainly not dogecoin.

So if dogecoin doesn’t compete with bitcoin, who does it compete with? Simple: MOE coins and exchanges. Considering these solutions work in seconds and have fees even lower than dogecoin’s pre-Elon days, it’s not clear why one would bother. In which case dogecoin would be, not even an MOE, but that streetwalker among cryptocurrencies: a speculative coin. One whose life’s purpose is, in practice, speculating on Elon Musk joke tweets and then, like a cicada, going dormant for 8 years. 

Can dogecoin still go up? Sure, speculative assets are the Rule 34 of the financial world - they can do anything. But the fundamentals aren’t there to sustain durable demand for dogecoin, certainly not as a store of value and, I think, not even as a medium of exchange.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 20:30

NYC Unleashing Army Of 10,000 'Cleanup Corps' As Trash, Rodent Complaints Soar

New York City is in the process of hiring and deploying 10,00 workers for a newly created "City Cleanup Corps" after complaints over filthy conditions surged 150% between March and August 2020, and rodent complaints spiked as well according to Bloomberg, citing data from the city's 311 service request line.

The push to restore some of the city's pandemic related cuts to the sanitation budget comes as Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a $30 million tourism push this week. With de Blasio departing City Hall later this year due to term limits, the cleanup job will have to be completed by his successor.

Among the more than a dozen candidates in the June 22 Democratic primary, perhaps no one has a more detailed plan to address the trash problem and beautify streets than former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia. She’s pledged to increase funding to public spaces, parks and gardens, restart recycling programs and send zero waste to landfills by 2030. “When we see dirty streets, people intuitively think either government isn’t doing its job or things are really bad,” Garcia said in an interview with Bloomberg News editors and reporters. “When you cut the sanitation budget by more than $100 million, you have to understand the implications of that.”

Sanitation intersects with climate, public health, safety, transportation and the city’s economic recovery. Cleaning the streets will reinvigorate the culture and tourism that keeps money flowing into New York, said Margaret Chin, a City Council representative for Lower Manhattan and a member of its sanitation committee. -Bloomberg

According to the report, trash levels are now higher than last year's peaks as people return to the city, while online deliveries have generated massive amounts of waste. By the end of March, waste tonnage had risen approximately 15% vs. the first few months of the pandemic, city data reveal.

"People may not think that’s a priority, but it’s very important for businesses, tourists, community residents to have their neighborhoods clean," said Chin, adding "It just makes people feel better when you walk down the street and it’s not full of garbage."

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/25/2021 - 20:00

Yet Another Ridiculous Stock Market Bubble... In Three Charts

Authored by David Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The Fiat Currency Age is nothing if not repetitious.

There are dozens of charts that illustrate how closely today’s financial bubble resembles its predecessors. But simple is better when expressing a hard truth, so let’s go with that old standby, margin debt. This is debt created when over-stimulated investors borrow against their stocks to buy more stocks. At its high extremes, the result is always the same: A price decline that forces overleveraged investors to liquidate at any price, turning correction into bloodbath. Note that the steeper the rise in margin debt, the more severe the resulting plunge in share prices.

The next chart illustrates more clearly the “steep” thing. The current spike is one for the record books.

Now, during past spikes in margin debt the “investors” who were swept up in the euphoria of easy money frequently responded to criticism with a variation on “corporate earnings are about to soar, which will make everything okay. Plus we know you’re only complaining because you missed the gravy train and you’re jealous.”

But corporate earnings almost never completely offset extreme valuations and soaring margin debt. A useful measure for visualizing this fact is “earnings yield,” which is the S&P 500 index’s aggregate earnings expressed as a percentage of its aggregate market cap. This is how much a buyer of the average stock receives in earnings per dollar invested. Common sense says the more the buyer receives the better the deal. And history says the less the buyer receives the higher the likelihood of stock prices falling in the ensuing few years. Today’s yield of 2.36% is the second-lowest ever. That’s really bad.

So here we are again. Stocks are soaring because corporate earnings are going to rise even faster. Yet – this being the peak of a long cycle – interest rates are also up, inflation is stirring, government deficits are otherworldly, and geopolitics are unsettled. It’s a virtual lock that corporate earnings will not save anyone this time around.

As in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, we’ve reached the point where share prices have to restore balance by falling to where it makes logical (as opposed to emotional) sense to own equities. And given the parabolic rise in margin debt, the process won’t be pretty.

As hedge fund manager David Einhorn recently lamented, “From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/18/2021 - 10:20

New Bill Seeks To Convince Biden To Implement 'No First Use' Nuclear Policy

Currently, the only global nuclear-armed powers with a "no first use" (NFU) nuclear policy are China and India. According to the working common definition, "A no-first-use policy means that the United States would pledge to use nuclear weapons only in retaliation for a nuclear attack."

Going back to the Cold War the United States has consistently resisted implementing a no first use nuclear policy, stating it "reserves the right to use" nuclear weapons first in a conflict scenario, which was reaffirmed most recently in its Nuclear Posture Review in 2010. 

And now Democratic lawmakers have reintroduced a bill in the House and Senate on Friday that seeks to prohibit the US from using nuclear weapons first.

Introduced by Democrats Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) and Rep. Adam Smith (WA) the bill introduces: "It is the policy of the United States to not use nuclear weapons first."

"Threatening to use nuclear weapons first makes America less safe because it increases the chances of a miscalculation or an accident," Warren said in a statement arguing the bill's urgency. "There are no winners in a nuclear war, and the US should never start one."

Rep. Smith also affirmed, "The United States should never initiate a nuclear war," in his statement, saying further, "This bill would strengthen deterrence while reducing the chance of nuclear use due to miscalculation or misunderstanding."

According to The Hill, the Biden presidency could have a receptive ear to the change in policy:

Opponents of such a policy argue that taking the option off the table to use a nuclear weapon first could embolden adversaries and undermine the confidence of allies in the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

But the bill could find a more receptive audience in President Biden. Biden has not addressed the topic since he became president, but as vice president in 2017, he said he finds it "hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary or make sense."

And further critics of America's current nuclear posture most often emphasize that with the Cold War long behind us, the real concern should be "the chances of a miscalculation or an accident" - as the bill's language underscores.

Nuclear treaties between the US and Russia, the latest major remaining one being New START which was renewed by Biden for five years, have further sought to mitigate this "unthinkable" disastrous scenario. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/18/2021 - 09:50

Ever Fewer People Need Ever More Money... Said Nobody, Ever (Except The Federal Reserve)

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

15 to 64 year old US working age population versus Federal Funds Rate & US currency in circulation. Honestly, no words are necessary.

Year over year changes in 15 to 64 year old US working age population versus currency in circulation.

Ever fewer people need ever more "money"...BRRR.

Just for fun, observing America through it's 15 to 54 year old population (blue line) and those employed among them (green line).

Now adding in the Federal Funds rate and the impact of "free money" on US federal marketable debt.

Add in the Fed's balance sheet (yellow line) plus the Wilshire 5000 (blue line...all publicly traded US equity).

Lastly, the 15 to 54 year old raw employment/population ratio. Asset owners rejoice, the Fed has a long way to go to fulfill it's "full employment" mandate...assets will soar until full employment is achieved.

And what is the impact on America's young adults...soaring age at first marriage...collapsing births.

Out of necessity of paying the soaring costs of living...females fully brought into the labor market and seemingly unable to step away for the luxury of having a family.

Widest possible view on childbearing females...and births.

And here is America by 15 to 40 year olds (yellow line), 40+ year olds (red line), and annual births (blue columns) plus my best estimate through 2040 (blue dashed line).

Soaring debt, asset prices, fueled by ZIRP are enriching asset holders (America's past) at the expense of young adults (America's future). Whether this is policy error or intentional is open for debate...but no debate about the destruction of the future of the US to safeguard it's past.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/18/2021 - 09:20

Minnesota National Guard, Police Team Targeted In Drive-By Shooting Hours After Maxine Waters Incites BLM Protesters

Hours after Sen. Maxine Waters (D-CA) urged protesters to 'get more confrontational,' a Minnesota National Guard and Minneapolis police team were targeted in a Saturday morning drive-by shooting, according to a press release by the National Guard.

The incident happened at approximately 4:19 a.m. local time when a light colored SUV drove by and unloaded. Fortunately for the officers, only minor injuries were sustained - with two National Guardsmen suffering minor cuts from shattered glass. They were taken to a local hospital. A third Guardsman had "only superficial injuries" according to the statement.

Clearly Waters needs to be impeached for incitement, since those are the rules - right?

Apparently what was next was MadMaxine inciting a riot https://t.co/ZHY8XYiHHE

— HedgedIn (@noalpha_allbeta) April 18, 2021

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California Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) flew to Minnesota this weekend, where she joined protesters in Brooklyn Center past curfew and urged them to 'get more confrontational' just one day after peaceful demonstrations devolved into violence.

"[Protestors] got to stay on the street and get more active, more confrontational. They’ve got to know that we mean business," said Waters.

"I am not happy that we have talked about police reform for so long," she continued, adding "We're looking for a guilty verdict" in regards to former police officer Derek Chauvin, who is on trial for the death of George Floyd, a black man who died while in police custody last year. "And we’re looking to see if all of the talk that took place and has been taking place after they saw what happened to George Floyd, if nothing does not happen, then we know that we’ve got to not only stay in the street, but we’ve got to fight for justice."

"If we don't," Waters added, "we cannot go away."

"We gotta stay on the street" Waters was recorded saying, according to the Daily Mail.

Maxine Waters is marching in Brooklyn Center tonight and told people to take to the streets if Chauvin is acquitted pic.twitter.com/RemfvCCLAn

— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) April 18, 2021

Chauvin faces three charges in Floyd's death; second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree manslaughter. According to Waters, however, a conviction for manslaughter would not be enough - and the charges should have included first-degree murder. 

Pictured: Armed members of the New Black Panther Party standing in front of the Brooklyn Center Police Department (Daily Mail)

Waters is essentially calling for protests even if Chauvin is convicted on all charges.

.@RepMaxineWaters from California is here in front of Brooklyn Center Police Department. Swarmed with cameras pic.twitter.com/jbVi437keH

— David Schuman (@david_schuman) April 18, 2021 BLM protester holds up sign

Several protesters were arrested late Saturday following Waters' comments, after what the Washington Post described as a "volatile skirmish between police and protesters" involving around 100 people. 

Meanwhile more from the Daily Mail.

Waters is planning on staying in town until Monday.

According to CBS Minnesota, officials stated that there was a brief altercation between reporters and proresters as Waters was leaving on Saturday, the first reports of any skirmishes.

The Pioneer Press reports demonstrators gathered Saturday afternoon at the home of Washington County Attorney Pete Orput, responsible for the second-degree manslaughter charges against Kimberly Potter.

The protesters stood outside of Orput's home before marching through is neighborhood in Stillwater.

Black Lives Matter activist Nekima Levy Armstrong relayed that Orput left his home briefly to engage in a conversation with protesters. -Daily Mail

Maxine Waters traveled across state lines to incite a riot

— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) April 18, 2021

Protesters have taken to the streets across the country surrounding the Chauvin trial, as well as the death of 13-year-old Adam Toledo, who was shot by a white Chicago police officer less than a second after the youth dropped a handgun..

On Friday night, clashes broke out between Black Lives Matter protesters and the police - after which Waters came out and encouraged followers to stay in the streets.

In 2018, Waters encouraged followers to publicly confront and harass members of the Trump administration.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/18/2021 - 08:50

Nearly Half Of Brits Say They Will Struggle To Revert Back To Normal Life After Lockdown

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Nearly half of Brits, including a majority of women, say they will struggle to revert back to normal life after lockdown, with only 37 per cent saying they would not miss anything about lockdown.

According to a YouGov poll, 49 per cent say they will find it hard to “adjust back to how life was before March 2020,” with only 42 per cent saying they would find it “easy.”

56 per cent of women say they will find it difficult and the same figure applies to 18-24 year olds who also said they would struggle compared to just one third would said they would find it easy.

Only 5 per cent say they would find it hard to stop worrying about catching COVID-19, while more than a third say they fear “being out in public with other people/crowds.”

“A separate YouGov poll, also published on Thursday, revealed what Britons would miss about the lockdown, including there being “less traffic and fewer planes, and cleaner air and streets” (11 per cent), “time with family, partner, pets and/or bubble” (eight per cent), and “having more time/A slower or simpler life” (seven per cent),” reports Breitbart.

The results of the survey follow a similar poll conducted by the London Times which found that a “significant proportion” of Brits enjoyed lockdown.

A separate opinion poll conducted last month by YouGov found that over half of Brits said they would miss “many” or “some” aspects of the lockdown.

The figures once again underscore how a majority of people appear to be utterly oblivious to the precedent that lockdown has created, handing government the power to completely restrict basic civil liberties on a whim.

Two separate but similar Aldous Huxley quotes sum up perfectly what we have witnessed over the course of the last 13 months.

• “A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude,” wrote Huxley.

• “The perfect dictatorship would have the appearance of a democracy, but would basically be a prison without walls in which the prisoners would not even dream of escaping. It would essentially be a system of slavery where, through consumption and entertainment, the slaves would love their servitudes,” he also warned.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/18/2021 - 08:10