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Efforts to battle the virus compound an economic slowdown

Wall Street giants and corporate titans are betting on climate innovation

As the business climate worsens at home and in the West, Alibaba, Tencent and their peers seek friendlier markets

Su nueva línea LG QNED presume de un mejor contraste de imagen y potencia de gráficos y sonido. Los nuevos televisores están ya en preventa y la marca ofrece reembolsos de hasta 1.000 euros a los primeros compradores. Leer

Me ha parecido oportuno abrir un hilo del fondo Rentamarkets Narval de Pepe Díaz, alias @Rebuzner y su primo Juan Díaz, alias @jdjove en twitter, para que la gente pueda hablar del mismo.

Para aquellos que no conozcan a Pepe, los tres mosqueteros del foro le hicieron una entrevista en su día allá por el año 2019:

Dejo la siguiente información:

-Enlace de Morningstar del fondo:

https://www.morningstar.es/es/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F00000ZK40&tab=1

-Rentabilidad:

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-Múltiplos de la cartera:

-Sectores:

-Países:

-Principales posiciones:

image632×738 28.4 KB

-Comisiones:

Por último el informe del último semestre con la cartera completa:

image848×906 146 KB

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The great investors never stop learning. Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and John Templeton all continued to learn well past the age of most people’s retirement, and despite decades of investment success, they all had the humility to recognise there was so much more to learn. More recently, the eminently successful practitioners, Howard Marks and Dan Loeb have each acknowledged their continued evolution as investors.

And the information they absorb can come from a multitude of sources. At MastersInvest we have looked at what can be learned from a variety of areas, many of which upon first reflection you would consider to be only tenuously related to investing at best. Interestingly though, often the better learning is to be found in the most unlikely of places.

“Camel's nostrils are miracles of heat exchange and water recovery engineering. We are currently looking at cuttlebone and bird skulls to help design more efficient concrete structures for office buildings. The combustion chamber in the abdomen of a bombardier beetle mixes two high explosives from fuel tanks with valves that open and close 200 times a second—it is being studied in order to develop needle-free medical injections, more efficient fuel injection systems and more effective fire extinguishers.” Michael Pawlyn

This field is called biomimicry; a discipline that looks at nature's best ideas to inspire solutions to human problems. When it comes to continuous innovation and devising strategies for success, nature has a three billion year head start on us humans. While we’ve barely scratched the surface when it comes to understanding the world we live in, it’s no reason to be despondent. The world is just far too complex and ever changing. There’s much to learn and everyday those learnings can help in all facets of life.

A recent article in The Economist titled, ‘The nose knows - Flies, worms and bees could help detect illness’ provides an enlightening example. While everybody knows dogs have a much better sense of smell than us, few would realise they can smell things at concentrations of one part in a trillion. That’s equivalent to a single drop in a pond the size of 20 Olympic swimming pools! While trials have shown that dogs can detect human disease - cancer, diabetes, tuberculosis, and malaria - recent research shows bees have senses just as good. Imagine such an expendable resource providing an economical, easy and non-invasive way of detecting cancer.

“The imagination of nature is far, far greater than the imagination of man. No one who did not have some inkling of this through observations could ever have imagined such a marvel as nature is.” Richard Feynman

Many great investors have found lessons in life within nature itself. The learnings that she can offer us are many and varied, and so upon recommendation by both Michael Mauboussin and James Anderson, I recently delved into an interesting book called, ‘Honeybee Democracy.’

In this fascinating treatise, the world-renowned animal behaviourist Thomas Seeley delves into the life of a honey bee swarm. These tiny creatures face a life-or-death problem when choosing a new home, effectively ‘staking everything on a process that includes collective fact-finding, vigorous debate, and consensus building.’

It all starts with the honey bee colony’s reproduction process. In the late spring and early summer, as a bee colony becomes overcrowded, a third of the hive stays behind and rears a new queen, while a swarm of thousands departs with the old queen to produce a daughter colony. As part of this process, a small percentage [c2%] of the hive’s worker bees, referred to as scouts, will independently search for a new nest site.

Experimental studies have found these scout bees to have an innate sense of what comprises the ideal location; a small entrance, plentiful volume for honey storage to survive winter, a suitable height above the ground, etc. Each scout bee’s job is to independently search for new locations and report them back to the hive. This communication process is achieved through a form of ‘ritual dance’ which signals both the location of the sites and the scout bee’s relative keenness on it.

Upon witnessing the dances, other scout bees will then visit the advertised sites and make their own independent assessment of the location’s merits and once again communicate this to the colony. Over time, each scout gradually reduces their marketing efforts regardless of how suitable the site is. The most keenly marketed sites attract more scouts who then inspect and, if appropriate advertise the site, creating a positive feedback loop. In contrast, lower quality sites are abandoned. When a quorum of bees is reached at the optimum site, the swarm will depart and take up residence in its new home.

An intelligent decision making process emerges from a group of less sophisticated beings; the wisdom of the hive is greater than that of any individual bee. This decision making process, honed over millions of years, almost always leads to the optimal site selection. There is no central decision maker; the queen bee plays no role in the process.

There are lessons in this decision making process that can help improve group decision making. Thomas Seeley recommended four things:

1) make sure the group is sufficiently large for the challenges it faces
2) make sure the group consists of people with diverse backgrounds and perspective
3) foster independent exploratory work by the group’s members
4) create a social environment in which the group’s members feel comfortable about proposing solutions

Every bee in the hive starts with a common purpose. The individuals and the hive’s interests are aligned - to the point where it is a life or death decision. When it comes to human decision making, ensuring a group understands the entities goals, have alignment and are incentivised appropriately, is fundamental.

The scout bees possessed an innate sense of what constitutes an optimal nest site. Extrapolating this to an investment group requires agreement on the attributes of a ‘good investment.’ Defining qualities such as a businesses’ purpose, a good culture, enduring competitive advantages, high returns on capital, management alignment and capability are perhaps, pre-requisites to consider. Filtering out unsuitable opportunities is an important part of the process.

Just as each bee doesn’t compare and contrast every site, but investigates a diverse range of sites, investment analysts should search widely for potential opportunities. Each analyst however, must be discerning in their selection process before reporting back to the group. Other analysts can then independently investigate those companies and a debate can be held about the merits of each.

While it might sound like common sense, collective groups of people have a tendency to make poor decisions. It’s uncanny the extent to which Thomas Seeley’s findings and recommendations parallel with those that the renowned Yale psychologist, Irving Janus described in his famous book, ‘Groupthink.’

Summary

One recurring trait of the great investors is their dedication to continuous learning. And its astounding from how many diverse fields they can draw life’s lessons from. At Mastersinvest we’ve drawn on teachings from great Investors, Businesses, CEO’s, Navy Captains, Psychologists, Physicists, Artists - and now - Honey Bees!

As humans, we understand just a fraction of what there is to know, which should make one optimistic about the amazing things we will achieve in the future. I’ll leave you with one of my all time favourite quotes from Ray Dalio, it connects the concept of nature and humility far better than I ever could.

“While I spend the most time studying how the realities that affect me most work—i.e., those that drive the markets and the people I deal with — I also love to study nature to try to figure out how it works because, to me, nature is both beautiful and practical. Its perfection and brilliance staggers me. When I think about all the flying machines, swimming machines, and billions of other systems that nature created, from the microscopic level to the cosmic level, and how they interact with one another to make a workable whole that evolves through time and through multi-dimensions, my breath is taken away. It seems to me that, in relation to nature, man has the intelligence of a mould growing on an apple—man can’t even make a mosquito, let alone scratch the surface of understanding the universe.” Ray Dalio, Principles 2011.

Source:
‘Honeybee Democracy,' Thomas Seeley, 2010, Princeton University Press.

Further Reading:
‘Avoiding Groupthink,’ Investment Masters Class, 2016.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
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Your next home could be a printout

It is cheaper and better than anything now available

But no country will feel comfortable with it

"Bin Laden wanted to lure the United States into Afghanistan, which was already being called the graveyard of empires. The usual object of terror is to draw one’s opponent into repressive blunders, and bin Laden caught America at a vulnerable and unfortunate moment in its history"Wright, Lawrence. The Looming Tower 

I think we all see where I'm going with this...This society has not even the slightest clue about world history,  and more importantly they don't want to learn. Their entire existence is now predicated upon denial and amnesia. There is no audience for truth. The world is burning, so what else to do but focus on spectacle. 




Twenty years in Afghanistan was not enough we are told. No doubt this pullout was a gong show - eerily reminiscent of the fall of Saigon in 1975. There is always going to be panic at the end when the empire is leaving. We are to believe that Biden was going to solve the riddle left by Bush, Obama/Biden? and Trump i.e. how to get a Stone Age Islamic patriarchy to embrace McDonald's, DisneyWorld and The Kardashians. No mean feat. America's longest blunder by far - twice as long as Vietnam the blunder it was ostensibly meant to erase. 
Similarly in markets, forty years of deflation later and the greatest concern today is inflation. There has been no sign of inflation since 1980, nevertheless that is the number one fear. None of these fools realize that under the current global paradigm inflation is no longer possible. There is far too much debt and and the slightest rise in interest rates would implode the super credit bubble - a process that may already be underway. The next bailout will be for governments only. I predict no public appetite for a private sector bailout this time around. Which is going to leave far more bankrupt and margined out bagholders than existed in 2008. These sheeple are up shit creek already but they don't know it because they are dazzled by their asset supernova. I recently showed that social mood has collapsed vis-a-vis consumer confidence and yet somehow today's retail sales miss "surprised" markets. This is the first time in market history when the market is lagging even the most stale of data. Any blind man could see that consumer sentiment has collapsed, but not an economist. Case in point, perma bull Ed Yardeni says we are on the verge of the holy grail of Supply Side Voodoo Economics - a jobless economy. 
Sheer nirvana. 


Now, we only need to figure out how get robots to go shopping.




Meanwhile, at the cusp of jobless nirvana we just learned that the only faster market double off a bottom was 1933 when markets imploded soon after. 


"It took the market 354 trading days to get there, marking the fastest bull market doubling off a bottom, according to a CNBC analysis of data from S&P Dow Jones Indices going back to WWII. On average, it takes bull markets more than 1,000 trading days to reach that milestone, the analysis showed"

As I mentioned in my last post, markets are going cold turkey on BOTH fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time in September. In other words, the only "valid" reason to buy these insanely overvalued markets is going away in under a month. Which means the dilemma facing gamblers today is whether markets will crash BEFORE or AFTER stimulus removal. Either way, not long to find out. 

In the meantime, Wall Street will continue to dump junk IPOs into this market until the market breaks and the inevitable global margin call arrives. Every time a new IPO is issued, money managers must sell an existing (usually) Tech stock to make room in their portfolios. Which is a big reason why Nasdaq breadth is imploding:





Another reason is because Emerging Markets and China in particular are now going bidless:




In summary, the biggest rally since 1933 sports the largest breadth divergence in forty years - driven by a Wall Street pump and dump that is now bet against by the same guy who predicted  the subprime meltdown.
What's not to like?






Fool me all the time, shame on me





What we learn from history is that hubristic morons don't learn from history.

Buenas mis amigos de dividendos.
Me encuentro en una situación del cual necesitare de ustedes tanto correcciones; opiniones , experiencias, ayuda etc…
soy nuevo en las inversiones y quiero empezar de la mejor manera si fuera posible.
Antes solo especulaba por el cual me fue mal, y para aquello hay multitud de bróker incluso (como ustedes ya deben saber) para mi única nacionalidad que es boliviana y resido en Bolivia (Sudamérica) , los brokers como DEGIRO ,ESPAÑOLES, ETC NO ESTAN A MI ALCANCE, pero si XTB lo cual no quisiera para este tipo de estrategia de dividendos, por lo CUAL EH OPTADO POR INTERACTIVE BROKERS. (cuenta lite, en efectivo) , Lo unico con lo que me he pillado al rellenar su formulario es que Mi PAIS NO TIENE BENEFISIO DE TRATADO CON EEUU.
El formulario W-8BEN ME servirá?
ya que eh leido que es el 30% sin el formulario?
o de que beneficio habla esta solicitud a rellenar de IB?
NECESITO DE SUS COMENTARIO POR FAVOR
GRACIAS

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This week’s post is inspired by a poll that Jake (@Econompic) asked on Twitter: You are 25 year old interested in a career in investment management. A genie appears offering you one of the following (with all the learning, networking, benefits, etc… auto populated into your background). Which do you think best improves your career prospects? CFA designation MBA from top tier school Great first job Rich parent...

The post The Best Advantage in Life appeared first on Of Dollars And Data.

Some who worked for foreign powers may get out. Many more will spill into poor neighbouring countries, and some will travel farther

Related Stocks: DASH, SRPT, ABNB, HDB, CVNA, PATH, BZ, WCN, ANSS, ILMN, MTCH, EXAS, WORK, BGNE,

Is this thread a humblebrag? I'm guessing so. So far, no one's posting where they keep their GED.

Statistics: Posted by azanon — Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:21 am

Gold commanded its unit to make another raid only to find itself stranded. The gold miners had already fled as fugitives, retreating without orders.

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Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Gold Miners

While gold shrugged off the Aug. 8 ‘flash crash’ and bounced back above its June lows, the yellow metal’s renewed sense of swagger hasn’t been mimicked by its precious metals peers. For example, while gold ended the week up by 0.86%, the GDXJ ETF (our short position) ended the week down by 1.72%.

Please see below:

Furthermore, while gold jumped by roughly $15 last week, the HUI Index declined by five index points. And with the bearish underperformance often a precursor to profound medium-term drawdowns, the precious metals are behaving like its 2012-2013. Last week is yet another confirmation of the analogy.

Case in point: after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff.

Please see below:

To explain, can you see the HUI’s rally at the end of 2012 that followed a small buy signal from the stochastic indicator? I marked it with a purple, dashed line. No? That’s because it’s been practically nonexistent. The HUI Index moved higher by so little that it’s impossible to see it from the long-term point of view. On top of that, with the shape of gold’s recent price action, its RSI, and its MACD indicators all mirroring the bearish signals that we witnessed back in December 2012, the current setup signals that we’re likely headed for a similar swoon.

For context, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:

(…) gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for the gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.

And why is this quote so important? Well, because the bearish phenomenon still remains intact. As mentioned, with gold rising by roughly $15 and the HUI Index declining by about five index points, the bearish underperformance is accelerating. Precisely, something similar happened during the week beginning on July 6. The gold price rallied by $27.40, and the HUI Index declined by 1.39. As a result, with the HUI Index’s ominous signals still present, if history rhymes (as it tends to), medium-term support will likely materialize in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.

In addition, the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.

Nonetheless, bearish head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.

Furthermore, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.

As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:

1. If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.
2. If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.

In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.

As further evidence, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the senior miners (GDX) are in the midst of forming an ominous bear flag and the volume that accompanied Friday’s (Aug. 13) corrective upswing was relatively weak and it declined while the flag pattern was formed – just as it should if the formation was valid.

Conversely, the GDX ETF did invalidate the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern (which is a bullish sign). However, the GDXJ ETF did not. And with the junior miners’ initial plunge (the pole) implying a continuation of the downtrend (following a consolidation that forms the flag), there are more indicators weighing down the gold miners than lifting them up.

Please see below:

Wave the Flag! The Bear Flag!

Speaking of the GDXJ ETF, not only are the junior miners lagging behind their senior counterparts, but the four-hour chart provides a clear visual of the initial breakdown and the formation of the current bear flag.

Please see below:

The flag is perfect, and it took place on relatively declining volume, suggesting that another move will also be to the downside. After all, the moves that follow flags tend to be similar to the ones that preceded them.

The price levels at which the flag was formed are also very important, and it’s clearer on the daily chart.

Junior miners broke below the previous 2021 lows, and they held this breakdown, even though gold rallied quite visibly last week. This serves as a great confirmation that the move lower is about to take place.

And how should we expect the climax to unfold? Last week, I wrote the following:

Well, the GDXJ ETF may consolidate in the short term, but lower lows are still likely, and initial support should materialize at roughly $37 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Thereafter, a short-term corrective upswing should follow before the GDXJ ETF reverses course once again and records its final bottom near the end of the year – at much, much lower price levels. All in all, it seems that our profits on the GDXJ (short position in it) are going to become MUCH bigger before this decline is over.

The above remains up-to-date. In fact, we already saw the short-term consolidation last week, so the decline could resume any day now.

In conclusion, the gold miners’ continued underperformance of the yellow metal is akin to a fire alarm signaling an impending blaze. And while many investors have forged through the smoke in 2021 and suffered a loss of breath in the process, our medium-term forecast does not change our outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks over the long term. With the trio underpinned by robust long-term fundamentals and their medium-term drawdowns likely to elicit secular buying opportunities, we’re confident that the precious metals will remain atop investors’ wish lists for years to come.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Updated on Aug 16, 2021, 10:19 am

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Cada mes construimos para usted tres tablas de correlaciones entre las principales categorías de fondos

Cada mes construimos para usted tres tablas de correlaciones entre las principales categorías de fondos

Las perspectivas para los bonos son más claras que para las acciones.