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10 Sunday AM Reads

Dom, 07/11/2021 - 12:30

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Five undervaccinated clusters put the entire United States at risk Clusters of unvaccinated people, most of them in the southern United States, are vulnerable to surges in Covid-19 cases and could become breeding grounds for even more deadly Covid-19 variants: Starting in Georgia and stretching west to Texas and north to Missouri + include parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Tennessee. see also (CNN) Trump Country Rejects Vaccines Despite Growing Delta Threat President Biden missed a July 4 target for shots after politically conservative areas balked (Bloomberg)

This Is Tax Evasion, Plain and Simple The race to the bottom on corporate taxes has gone on for too long. Since the 1980s, countries have competed for business by reducing companies’ taxes. A few nations, like Ireland and Bermuda, have adopted extremely low rates and become tax havens for companies like Google and Apple. Last week, 130 countries, including the United States, agreed to a blueprint to tax their companies’ profits at a minimum 15 percent rate — no matter where the profits are booked. (New York Times)

The Hidden Costs of Dollar General When the dollar stores moved in, they started driving grocery stores out. Local grocers blamed it on what they called the Walmart effect. When Walmart Supercenters arrived in neighboring areas, offering huge selections of goods at low prices, people started driving to them rather than shopping locally. Smaller stores couldn’t compete. (Slate)

A Banking App Has Been Suddenly Closing Accounts, Sometimes Not Returning Customers’ Money Chime, a “neobank” serving millions, is racking up complaints from users who can’t access their cash. The company says it’s cracking down on an “extraordinary surge” in fraudulent deposits. That’s little consolation to customers caught in the fray. (ProPublica)

Ransomware Is the IRS of Bitcoin: It doesn’t really matter how inconvenient it is to pay in bitcoin when you don’t have any other choice (Wall Street Journal) see also How to Negotiate with Ransomware Hackers ‘You’re a very talented hacker, and we’d like to pay you for that. But we can’t pay what you’re asking.’ ” (New Yorker)

You Really Need to Quit Twitter: How could I have succumbed to this common, embarrassing habit that just about everyone on Earth knows is a scourge? (The Atlantic)

The Secret History of Gavin McInnes: In the ’90s, he played punk rock and helped create Vice magazine. Five years ago, he founded a very different organization: the Proud Boys, the far-right group that came to personify the vilest tendencies of Trump’s America. A former Vice editor interviews one of our era’s most troubling extremists. (Vanity Fair)

What Makes a Cult a Cult? The line between delusion and what the rest of us believe may be blurrier than we think. (New Yorker)

While Trump planted the seed for Jan. 6, others — including Fox News — watered it A former Fox executive, for example, blames the network (Washington Post) see also From corporate America to conspiracy theory promotion: How a Minnesota man made a career out of anonymously amplifying dark plots  For more than a decade, the 53-year-old has also pursued a less conventional path: anonymously promoting conspiracy theories about dark forces in American politics on websites and social media accounts in a business he runs out of his home. (Washington Post)

• ‘In the End We Felt Betrayed’: Vietnamese Veterans See Echoes in Afghanistan Those who continued fighting for South Vietnam in 1975 know what it’s like when an American-made military is suddenly left with little support. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

There’s A Stark Red-Blue Divide When It Comes To States’ Vaccination Rates

Source: NPR

 

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MiB: Christine Hurtsellers, Voya Investment CEO

Sáb, 07/10/2021 - 15:00



 

 

This week, we speak with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management LLC. The firm manages over $250 billion in assets across fixed income, senior loans, equities, multi-asset strategies and solutions, private equity, and real assets. Hurtsellers has been named to numerous “most influential” finance lists, including Barrons top 10 most influential women in wealth management

We discuss how her firm managed its way through the pandemic: The challenge was keeping employees engaged and mentally healthy even as they were feeling detached during the entire year. She wanted to keep employees connected to their colleagues despite the lack of physical proximity. They are still WFH and plan on returning to the office in the Fall. Post pandemic, Voya will continue with a hybrid system of teamwork in the office but WFH for other kinds of work.

Hurtsellers discusses her prior experience as a bond fund manager —  she was CIO of Fixed Income at Voya, managed the $650 billion retained portfolio of GSE wraps at Freddie Mac, and PM for securitized assets at Alliance Capital Management — affected her outlook on equities, elevating the preservation of capital as a key part of her investment philosophy. Ultra-low yields are

She explains how raising 5 children, including one on the autism spectrum, has given her insights into the challenges for working mothers. This has helped Voya maintain its position as one of the best places to work in finance.

A list of her favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Monday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Matt Ishbia, CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage. UWM is the number 1 wholesale lender and the number 2 overall mortgage lender in the nation. The 9,000 person firm went public in the biggest SPAC ever (UWMC) in January of this year. Ishbia  is also the author of “Running the Corporate Offense: Lessons in Effective Leadership from the Bench to the Boardroom.

 

 

The Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood

East of Eden by John Steinbeck

The Grapes of Wrath by John Steinbeck

 

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10 Weekend Reads

Sáb, 07/10/2021 - 12:45

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Alto Grande coffee, grab a seat outdoors, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The Billionaire Playbook: How Sports Owners Use Their Teams to Avoid Millions in Taxes Owners like Steve Ballmer can take the kinds of deductions on team assets — everything from media deals to player contracts — that industrialists take on factory equipment. That helps them pay lower tax rates than players and even stadium workers. (ProPublica)

Older Americans Stockpiled a Record $35 Trillion. The Time Has Come to Give It Away. Transfers to heirs and others are unleashing a torrent of economic activity, including buying homes, starting businesses and giving to charity (Wall Street Journal)

TikTok made me buy it The video app is causing products to blow up — and flame out — faster than ever. TikTok allows certain creators and businesses in the UK and Indonesia to sell products within its TikTok Shop, though the feature doesn’t yet exist in the US. But it’s almost certainly coming. What effect that might have on American consumerism depends on whom you ask. (Vox)

The invisible addiction: is it time to give up caffeine? Caffeine makes us more energetic, efficient and faster. But we have become so dependent that we need it just to get to our baseline  (The Guardian)

• ‘Financially Hobbled for Life’: The Elite Master’s Degrees That Don’t Pay Off Columbia and other top universities push master’s programs that fail to generate enough income for graduates to keep up with six-figure federal loans. (Wall Street Journal)

The Resurrection of Bass Reeves His almost superhuman exploits made him one of the West’s most feared lawmen. Today, the legendary deputy U.S. marshal is widely believed to be the real Lone Ranger. But his true legacy is even greater. (Texas Monthly)

How May Edwards became the forgotten whistleblower Edwards is largely unknown and mostly forgotten. She is scheduled to report to the Bureau of Prisons in August, and no celebrities are clamoring about the injustice on Twitter. She is one of the most important whistleblowers of our era, and yet hardly anyone remembers her name. (Washington Post)

Ideas that work: Truth, knowledge, justice – to understand how our loftiest abstractions earn their keep, trace them to their practical origins (Aeon)

Untold stories of Ichiro: Wrestling with Griffey, All-Star speeches and ‘Ichi wings’ Twenty years ago, Ichiro Suzuki joined the Seattle Mariners, so The Athletic asked former teammates, managers, executives and rivals to explain the wonder, absurdity and hilarity of the Ichiro experience. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees teammate: Oh, I mean, do we have enough time for Ichiro stories?(The Athletic)

The Tin Man Gets His Heart: An Oral History of ‘Terminator 2: Judgment Day’ Three decades ago, James Cameron, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Linda Hamilton joined forces again to make the biggest, baddest, most eye-popping sequel ever. Here’s the story of how the machines took over Hollywood. (The Ringer)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

The global normalcy index Is the world returning to pre-pandemic life?

Source: Economist

 

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~~~

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Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building

Vie, 07/09/2021 - 16:00

 

 

An endless series of articles have been discussing America’s Labor shortages, especially in foodservice and hospitality. Blame has been spasmodically assigned to everything from too generous unemployment benefits, fear of Covid, lack of childcare, skills mismatch, and more (see this LOL Hamptons piece).

I have a different theory: Waitstaff, bartenders, hotel maids, busboys, dishwashers (and others) used the year of lockdown to level up, gain new skills, find not new jobs, but new careers. They have exited difficult, thankless, dead-end jobs for a chance at the American Dream.

Elvis has left the building... *

Can you blame them? I worked my way through college mostly as a waiter, but also anything else I could do (tending bar, making ice cream sundaes, short-order chef). It was exhausting, on your feet work, and your comp was mostly tip-based, and highly dependant on factors beyond your control: How many people came into the restaurant, which was affected by weather, reviews, etc.

The CARES Act monies flowed to people mandated to shelter in place at home. Many of them did not spend the year sitting around with their feet up, collecting bennies — they improved their lot in life. Some learned new skills, got degrees online, trained themselves for new careers.

Every time I hear about restaurants being unable to find workers, my first response is to ask if they raised wages; if they did, I ask if they were getting a lot of teenage applicants.

I suspect the people who have been blaming the worker shortage on lazy workers have gotten it exactly backward: It’s not that these folks do not want work, it is that they have been motivated to improve their lot in life. Many have changed careers, and not only that, lots of these people have been launching new businesses to capitalize on their newfound skills, and to pursue a better life for themselves. New business formation has been huge, and in 2020 it was near record-breaking pace.

Blame or credit? I hold no doubt that unemployment benefits are a factor here — just not in the way that so many people think.

 

 

 

 

Previously:
Wages in America

Table Stakes (June 10, 2021)

What Makes Teen Employment Data So Interesting… (June 9, 2021)

Finding it Hard to Hire? Try Raising Your Wages (May 6, 2021)

 

 

 

 

___________________

* The origin of the title phrase literally refers to Elvis Presley exiting the stadium after a show. Read about it at Wikipedia or The Idioms.

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10 Friday AM Reads

Vie, 07/09/2021 - 12:30

My end of week morning train WFH reads:

A Memo to Investors That’s it. That’s the stock-picking game. Stocks are not pieces of art. They are not fiat money. Cults of personality do not last forever in the stock market. Narratives break. Eventually, everyone figured out that Galileo was right. Eventually, everyone will figure out that Cathie Wood isn’t. And it won’t take as long either. (Albert Bridge Capital)

A Great Inflation Redux? Economists Point to Big Differences. Prices climbed for years before the runaway inflation of the 1970s. Economists see parallels today, but the differences are just as important. (New York Times) but see Everything feels more expensive because it is Why are prices going up? Used cars, gas, and groceries seem more expensive because they are. (Vox)

Three months, 700 steps: Why it takes so long to produce a computer chip The U.S. Senate has set aside $52 billion in hopes of increasing the U.S. share of semiconductor manufacturing. A visit to a chip fab in Upstate New York shows why that might not be enough. (Washington Post)

Vinyl Is More Popular Than Ever. Surprisingly, That’s a Problem Pressing plants can’t keep up with unprecedented demand, and big box chains are selling LPs now, resulting in devastating delays. (Vice)

Are Private Equity Firms to Blame For Rising Home Prices? Wall Street is an easy scapegoat. The real villain lives much closer to home. (Marker)

Why Generation Z falls for online misinformation We can all learn from how today’s young people evaluate truth online. (MIT Technology Review)

The Tech Cold War’s ‘Most Complicated Machine’ That’s Out of China’s Reach A $150 million chip-making tool from a Dutch company has become a lever in the U.S.-Chinese struggle. It also shows how entrenched the global supply chain is.  (New York Times)

Dining Out, Digitized: Many restaurants dropped printed menus during the pandemic in favor of QR codes sending diners to online ordering platforms. Will eating out be the same? (Bloomberg)

Whether Republicans Get Vaccinated Has A Lot To Do With If They Watch Fox News … Or OANN Republicans who got their news from OANN or Newsmax were generally more extreme in their beliefs around QAnon and in their refusal to get vaccinated than those who got their news from Fox News. Meanwhile, Fox News Republicans were often more in line with Republicans who got their news from other mainstream outlets. (FiveThirtyEight)

Cricket is Having its Moneyball Moment When Twenty20 launched, the game of cricket changed forever. Now a team of data evangelists are taking the sport to the next level. (Wired)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

Americans’ Life Ratings Reach Record High

Source: Gallup

 

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1963 Jaguar XKE Series I Roadster

Vie, 07/09/2021 - 12:00

During this past Spring, I have been showing a lot of open-top cars. After all, it is a great time of year for top-down driving. This leads us to Jaguar E-Type — the sexiest and perhaps most beautiful convertible ever made.

Even Enzo Ferrari called the E-Type ‘The most beautiful car ever made.” And a 150-mph top speed didn’t hurt either. The 3.8-litre XK straight-six made 265bhp from the factory.

From 1961 through 1975, the E-Type was continually upgraded, while still retaining its spectacular styling. Disc brakes, rack-and-pinion steering, and independent front and rear suspension. Arguably innovations at Jag spurred the rest of the industry to make changes in its engineering. But these changes were not always for the better: Hargerty’s UK Buyers Guide points out that from 1964 onwards, the engine grew to 4.2 litres. The clear headlamp covers were deleted in 1967, and the line of dashboard toggle switches was replaced by rocker switches. In 1973, the Series 3 was made with the 5.3-litre V12.

These are beautiful cars, and can make a lovely Sunday driver for someone willing to put in some time and effort to maintain them. The Series I (like the one below) are the most valuable; you can find nice drivers in Series 2s for less money.

Series 1 cars can be identified by the glass-covered front headlights, the small opening in the grill. There is a week left in this auction, and it’s already up to $70k. Clean versions of these go for $75-100 and those rated “excellent’ can be twice that.

 

 


Source: Bring A Trailer

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All the Ways You Can Get Defrauded

Jue, 07/08/2021 - 23:43
What 4.8 Million Scams Look Like

click for interactive graphic

Source: Businessweek

 

 

We spend a lot of time and effort in the office on security; we have to make sure everybody is up to speed on the latest phishing and identify theft scams, and how to keep client accounts secure, and all that. It’s a never-ending battle, an arms race between technology and human error.

If you think you know all of the scams out there just waiting to defraud you, think again. There were 4.8 million reports in 2020, a 43% increase from 2019. And forged government benefits applications, including unemployment insurance, were up 30-fold year over year.

Thank the folks at Businessweek for delving into the FTC’s database of 4.8 million scams. You can see all of the major categories here.

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Avoiding the Sins of Investing

Jue, 07/08/2021 - 14:00

 

We discuss the need to manage emotions when it comes to investing.

 

Risk and Reward Are Two Sides of the Same

Source: Bloomberg, July 6th, 2021

 

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10 Thursday AM Reads

Jue, 07/08/2021 - 12:51

My morning train WFH reads:

Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital Billions are getting pilfered annually through a variety of cryptocurrency scams. In today’s cryptocurrencies, it’s known as the rug pull: Shit Coins, obscure digital something-or-others are being minted by the thousands. Telegram (a popular instant messaging app) has become a major crypto boiler room “Everybody I know has gotten rug-pulled.” The way things are going, this will only get worse. (Bloomberg Wealth)

Is This the End of the ‘Fiery’ Public Versus Private Equity Debate? 60/40 portfolios: when private assets are included within the equity allocation, the fund’s performance is stronger than its private equity-less counterparts. This is true even when underperforming funds are involved. (Institutional Investor)

The Sound of My Inbox The financial promise of email newsletters has launched countless micropublications — and created a new literary genre. The contemporary email newsletter is not a novel form; often it amounts to a new delivery system for the same sorts of content — essays, explainers, Q&As, news roundups, advice, and lists — that have long been staples of online media. (The Cut)

Other People’s Money Once you start to view your personal balance sheet as a business, you start to question where your capital is parked and why. Do you really need a ton of equity in your home, a slow growing asset? Would that money earn more in the stock market? Are you comfortable with how borrowing changes your monthly cash flow? (The Belle Curve)

Before investing in Robinhood or trusting it with your money, read these documents Finra accused Robinhood of plying millions of customers with “false or misleading information” about their account balances, of leaving millions of customers unable to trade because its IT systems broke down at crucial moments, and of approving thousands of customers for options trading even though it should have known they were unqualified to play the options market. (Los Angeles Times) see also The Robinhood Conundrum 47% of traders use the product on a daily basis. Among those customers who visted the app on a daily basis, the average number of visits was seven per day. More than 98% of users use the app on a monthly basis. This type of engagement and usage is insanely high for an investment product. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

The Downtown Office District Was Vulnerable. Even Before Covid. The modern downtown business districts of many large American cities were created through subtraction: First residents left the center city, then the craftsmen and wholesalers, then the museums, theaters and smaller retailers, and — the final blow — the department stores. (Upshot)

Why do we buy what we buy? A sociologist on why people buy too many things. What’s at the root of modern American consumerism? It might not just be competition among the brands trying to sell us things, but also competition among ourselves. American consumerism is also built on societal factors that are often overlooked. And in an increasingly unequal society, the Joneses at the very top are doing a lot of the consuming, while the people at the bottom struggle to keep up. (Vox)

To Expand U.S. Vaccine Access, Consider the Dollar Store: The dollar store footprint lends itself to thinking about this broader aim of making vaccines available right where people are located, and the people that are disproportionately under-vaccinated in so many of our cities and communities right now. Dollar stores could be key access points for reaching vulnerable populations who have limited access to health care services, and sometimes lack trust in the system. (Citylab)

These Superheroes Could Sharply Reduce Heat Deaths At a time when climate change is making heat waves more frequent and more severe, trees are stationary superheroes: They can lower urban temperatures 10 lifesaving degrees, scientists say. (New York Times)

Hubble on the Bubble: Can NASA fix the world’s most famous telescope? Hubble is over 30 years old, and before this latest issue still working very well. It has tech considered ancient in it, but it’s still ticking. Or at least it will be once again when this problem is righted. (Syfy Wire)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

In Defense of Global Stocks

Source: Of Dollars and Data

 

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Top 10 Rules for Money

Mié, 07/07/2021 - 14:30

Ten Simple Money Rules for Investing Success
Bad decisions and poor behavior are the primary reasons why many fail to meet their financial goals.
Bloomberg, July 5, 2021

 

 

To hear an audio spoken word version of this post, click here.

 

 

Creating lists1 is a useful way to organize your thoughts: I have created lists of rules for Investing, Valuation, Stock tips, Goldbuggery, even useless financial phrases to avoid. I find these exercises to be valuable ways to figure out what I think.

Thinking about money – saving it, spending it, and most of all, how to invest it – is something I have spent decades doing. This has led to recognizing several fundamental truths about capital.

Naturally, I have organized these rules into a list:

My Top 10 Rules for Money

1. Investing Is Both Simple and Hard: The basic premise behind successful investing is easily understood: “Invest for the long term, be diversified, watch your costs, and let compounding work its magic.”

But following through can be challenging. Humans are plagued by an inability to just “sit there and do nothing.” Failing to do nothing leads to costly errors and loss of capital that erode returns. Understanding what is required is very different than being able to perform, regardless of circumstances, for decades on end.

This leads us to:

2. Behavior Is Everything: The inability to manage emotions and behavior is the financial undoing of many. To paraphrase William Bernstein, “the extent you succeed in finance is based on your ability to suppress your limbic system. If you can’t do that, you’re going to die poor.”

Even the greatest stock pickers will underperform if unable to control their emotional impulses. Allowing those emotional hot buttons to get pressed is how people go wrong in investing. There are no shortcuts, secrets or get rich quick schemes that work, except for my 3-day workshop where I reveal the secrets of the ultra-rich for the low, low price of $4,995. Sign up here.

3. Moderation In All Things: Think of the majority of the assets in your portfolio -– hopefully a diversified, global mix of passive index funds — as the basic meat and potatoes of investing. You can add seasonings, herbs, and vegetables to spice it up and add some flavor.

Want to do some early-stage investing in tech start-ups? Maybe some real estate speculation? Perhaps a few private equity investments in non-public businesses? Maybe even a fun trading account?

I don’t have a problem with any of that as long as it meets two conditions. First, you should understand that the odds of success are against you. Many billions of dollars are aggressively competing in the same space for returns. The professionals are always searching for an edge, and even with one, there are no guarantees of success.

Second, it should be a smallish chunk of your liquid net worth, perhaps about 5% to 10%. That is enough to provide you a little fun and intellectual stimulation. Some might even discover a knack for such investing. But the amounts should be small enough that if the investment doesn’t work out it won’t affect your financial plan.

4. Risk and Reward Are Inseparable: Risk is best defined as the probability of your returns differing from your expected outcomes.2 The problem is that many investors want better-than-market returns while assuming minimal risk. But returns are a function of the risks assumed.

Risk-free U.S. Treasuries yield almost nothing. To do better, own equities. But that adds volatility to your portfolio. If you seek higher returns, you can add low beta stocks that have the potential to do better – or worse – than the market as a whole.

5. Spend Less Than You Earn: Budgeting is simple: Income goes on this side of your household balance sheet, expenditures on that side and make sure the latter is lower than the former. It’s that easy!

I have zero tolerance for the spending scolds who tell you never buy a boat, don’t get a new car (especially a sports car), and avoid buying lattes. This is lazy, ignorant and poor advice given by charlatans and frauds who do not understand math or finance. If they did, they would add the magic phrase: “…if you cannot afford it.”

But if you can, then spend your money however you like but preferably thoughtfully. People often skip purchases they can afford out of misplaced guilt.3

6. Leverage Kills: Using borrowed money for nearly anything is the negative manifestation of the three prior rules. Yes, get a mortgage to buy a house you can afford. But never use borrowed money to buy speculative assets that are subject to further capital calls.4

7. Understand Your Role: The markets are populated by all kinds. There are traders and investors, hedgers and speculators, and everyone has different risk tolerances, time horizons and financial goals. Do not assume what any of America’s 800 billionaires have to say about investing is especially relevant for your needs. Their goals are likely different than yours.

8. Be Aware of Your Limitations: What gets so many investors into trouble “is not what we don’t know, it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”5 Understanding the limitations of your cognitive errors and belief systems is just the start. It’s also important to know what inadequacies you have financially, emotionally and behaviorally. Operating outside of your own capabilities is a good way to run into trouble.6

9. Own It: You are responsible for own financial well-being, not the Federal Reserve, the government or whichever huckster is yelling the loudest on TV at the moment. You alone accept responsibility for your investments and spending. The sooner you take ownership of your financial circumstances, the better off you will be.

10. Invest In Yourself: This is the most important investment you can make. Educate yourself, develop an expertise and add to your professional skill stack.7

And invest in your future by making sure you fully fund your retirement accounts every year. Make those long-term investment needs before spending on short term wants (that’s as much of a scold as I can muster).

After making my list, I asked Twitter folks for their favorites. The result was hundreds of suggestions. Consider them an ala carte menu showing both breadth and depth.

My final admonition is the most important rule: “Behave! As noted throughout, ill-advised decision-making and poor behavior are the biggest reasons why many fail to meet their financial goals. All of the above either directly or indirectly refers to behavioral issues dressed up in the lexicon of finance.

Go make a list of rules, then follow it. Your future self will thank you.

 

 

Previously:
Your Favorite Money Rules (July 2, 2021)

Ritholtz’s Rules of Investing (part I) (October 6, 2012)

Ritholtz’s rules of investing (part II) (October 20, 2012)

 

_______

1. Lists are a useful way to organize your thoughts: The Top 10 list was the heart of David Letterman’s late night career; the listicle has been a big driver of social media and online content creation. As a heuristic, the list is a useful mental shortcut (although that does come with some baggage).

2. Note this is different than “Uncertainty.”

3. In my office, I have seen vacation homes, sailboats, and the occasional Ferrari purchased only after many assurances that “Yes, you can afford that” (you can afford 100 of them, but let’s start with 1).

4. Archegos Capital Management was running about 5 to 1 leverage, then blew up quite spectacularly, losing $20 billion and wiping out founder Bill Hwang. Lehman Brothers, founded in 1847, regularly ran 20 to 40-to-1. They shuffled off this mortal coil in 2008 during the financial crisis, an act more akin to suicide than murder. The most extreme example was Long Term Capital Management, which ran 100-to-1 leverage. When they blew up they nearly took the banking system with them.

5. For example, that above quote, often ascribed to Mark Twain, is more likely unknown.

6. The lesson taught in high-performance driving schools is the importance of operating within the capabilities of both the vehicle and the driver.

7. Take care of your physical body (eating healthy, exercising, getting enough sleep), and your emotional state (meditating, relaxing).

 

~~~

I originally published this at Bloomberg, July 5, 2021. All of my Bloomberg columns can be found here and here.

 

 


 

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