Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

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England Versus Italy - What The Stats Say

England have never come closer to ending what is by now 55 'years of hurt'. In beating Denmark, the Three Lions reached their first major final since their famous 1966 World Cup win. England fans have had to console themselves with the fading memories of that victory for far too long, as the list of painfully close calls and disastrous campaigns only got longer.

Considering the on-paper strength that England has regularly boasted over the years, fans were not always unjustified in the bitter disappointment they felt each time it all didn't quite come together at the right moment. But, as Statista's Martin Armstrong notes, the Euros 2020 tournament has been a different story though. Building on manager Southgate's semi final run at the 2018 World Cup, England have shown the patience and resilience - accompanied by the essential dose of good luck which so often eluded them in the past - to make it all the way to the final.

The team awaiting them in roday's Wembley final though, is an Italy side on an even more impressive run of form and results and will represent a challenge so far not encountered by England in this tournament.

As Statista's infographic shows, history is also firmly on Italy's side, especially in major tournaments where England have not yet managed to beat them in their three meetings on the biggest of stages.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Anything can happen in a final though, with both sides striving to write a new glorious chapter in their country's footballing history.

Finally, Goldman Sachs' model predicts a close call and sees a 58% chance of England winning a major tournament for the first time since 1966.

Their model predicts for the final: England 2—1 Italy (extra-time)

We wholeheartedly support this forecast!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 09:56

The Dollar's Final Crash

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Was Richard Nixon a real gold friend who understood the futility of tying a weakening dollar to gold which is the only currency that has survived in history?

So was Nixon actually the instigator of the movement to FreeGold?

I doubt it. He was just another desperate leader who was running out of real money and needed to create unlimited amounts of fiat money. Although his fatal decision to close the gold window was clearly the beginning of the end of the current monetary system.

But although the decision was fatal, Nixon was clearly not personally responsible. What the world saw in August 1971 was just another desperate leader who realised that he couldn’t stick to the monetary or fiscal disciplines necessary to maintain a sound economy and a sound currency.

In history, Nixon should be seen as the rule rather than the exception. Since every currency has been slaughtered throughout history, one particular leader will also be required to be the executor.

So in 1971, history had elected Tricky Dick to be the inevitable destroyer of the dollar.

I don’t quite know what the definition is of “suspend temporarily” but 50 years seems to be pushing the limit!

And as regards the strength of dollar goes, we all know what happened to the “strength of the currency”! Please see the illustration of the dollar collapse further on in the article.

FREEGOLD

In my article from December 2018 I talked about the advantage of FreeGold.

There are a few conditions that need to be fulfilled for gold to be an effective store of value. The principle of FreeGold best defines what this means. The website FOFOA (Friend Of a Friend of Another) and its predecessors have been pioneers in defining what FreeGold is:

These are the basic principles-

ALL PHYSICAL GOLD MUST BE:

• FREE from official money systems

• Owned FREE of all other claims

• FREELY traded

If all the above conditions are met, there would be no gold backed currencies, no ability to exchange currency for gold at central banks for a fixed parity and most importantly THERE WOULD BE NO PAPER GOLD OR OTHER GOLD DERIVATIVES.

Gold would neither be lent nor leveraged.

In fact, gold should not be tied to any currency. Gold has reigned supreme for 5,000 years whilst all its competitors in the form of fiat money have collapsed. Nixon probably understood this. The world’s current reserve currency could obviously not be shackled any more by gold. Because gold ignores the follies of megalomaniac sovereign leaders who want to cling on to power at any cost.

That is why governments have a Love – Hate relationship with gold.

ON THE ONE HAND – GOVERNMENTS LOVE GOLD

On the one hand gold signifies stability, wealth and the only currency that has survived in history and maintained its purchasing power. That is why governments around the world allegedly hold 34,000 tonnes of it currently valued at $2 trillion.

As Greenspan said a few years ago:

“If it (gold) is worthless and meaningless, why is everybody (central banks) still holding it?”

ON THE OTHER HAND – GOVERNMENTS HATE GOLD

On the other hand governments hate gold since it reveals their total mismanagement of the economy.

Because as soon as they run out of money, tying the currency to gold creates an extremely inconvenient road block that must be eliminated.

As gold is an inconvenient truth sayer, tying it to the currency prevents governments from holding on to power. So out with gold and sound money and in with credit expansion and fake money that temporarily buys votes.

Printing money and buying votes is not just a frivolous folly, but also an extremely costly exercise that without fail leads to the collapse of the economy and the currency.

DOLLAR AND OTHER CURRENCIES CRASHING INTO THE ABYSS

Just look at the picture below showing the crash of the dollar from the peak of the Matterhorn.

So far it is a “mere” 98% fall since 1971. But that is just the beginning. The next move of all the currencies will shock the world as they crash into the abyss.

The dollar and all currencies are likely to fall by another 98%+ from here as the world central banks desperately attempt to save the financial system.

Whether that means gold at $1,900 or $19,000 or much, much higher is all a function on the final debasement of the currencies rather than the rise of gold.

NO CURRENCY HAS SURVIVED IN HISTORY IN ITS ORIGINAL FORM

Every currency in history has disappeared or become worthless. There are at least 160 currencies that have died through hyperinflation but the real number is likely to be much higher.

The longest surviving currency today is the British Pound which has been in existence since 1694. At that time one pound bought 12 ounces of silver and today one pound buys 0.05 oz.

So although the pound has survived for over 300 years in name, it has lost over 99.99% of its purchasing power in that time.

BITCOIN – $10,000 NEXT?

For anyone who believes that crypto currencies will take over from gold, they should think again. There are around 10,000 cryptos today and over 1,000 have already died.

Bitcoin is of course the biggest. As I have said before, BTC is a wild binary bet. It can go to $1 million and it can go to Zero. Governments are unlikely to allow it to go to $1 million except for as a collector’s item without any practical use. They are more likely to force it to zero as it is banned by an increasing number of countries.

And anyone who thinks BTC will replace gold must think again. It might be a great speculative investment but it can never be a real store of wealth. And the extreme volatility makes it very unsuitable either as a reserve currency or as a wealth preservation investment.

We have seen $65,000 for BTC this year and now it is down 46% from there. Technically it looks like BTC could go to $10,000. If that will be the case, it will certainly not be suitable for widows or orphans

HISTORY – HISTORY – HISTORY

Again, history is our teacher. Most sovereign leaders never look at history. Their egos are too big to learn from the past. Instead they suffer from delusions of grandeur and always believe that things are different today just because they are in power.

But if they had one iota of humility, they would learn that there is very little new under the sun when it comes to the laws of nature and sound money.

They can call it by fancy names such as Keynesianism, QE or MMT. But embellishing a “criminal” action with a fancy name doesn’t make it legitimate. What governments are doing with money would put ordinary people in jail.

How can anyone call dollars or euros legal tender when most of it is created without the production of any goods or service.

Money fabricated by pressing a button by an index finger can never be worth more than the cost of moving the finger. Still these small finger movements are generating trillions of dollars, euros, yen, RMB and other currencies in an illusory creation of wealth.

WILL THERE BE A RESET?

I have at various times made my position clear on a reset.

I definitely don’t believe in Klaus Schwab and his cohorts taking over the world in a James Bond style movie. My view is that these self-important people will totally fail in any attempt to dominate world politics or the global economy.

The current monetary system has given the 0.1% elite illusory wealth and power. But that is a totally artificial and temporary situation. As the current currency system collapses so will their power and illusions.

Nor do I believe that governments and central banks will succeed in anything but a very temporary reset, if that. This kind of attempted reset could involve making debt disappear in a hocus pocus move and revaluing gold. Central bank digital currencies would also be introduced.

What they don’t realise is that Humpty Dumpty has already fallen and is irreparable. Any artificial and fake measures will not ever put Humpty together again.

So the only real reset that I see will be disorderly in a fall of the current monetary system.

Many of my previous articles cover the consequences in detail.

As I have outlined, it will be a very unpleasant but temporary period for the world as all the corruption and excesses of the last 100 years are unwound.

But the coming forest fire is essential to get rid of the deadwood so that new green shoots can create a sounder world economy and system.

GOLD (& SILVER) WILL BE A LIFE SAVER

As the graph above shows, gold is today as cheap in relation to US money supply as it was in 1970 when gold was $35 and in 2000 when gold was $300.

For financial survival, physical gold and silver will be life savers as bubble asset like stocks, bonds and property collapse in real terms. But due to the fragile financial system, precious metals must be held in private & safe vaults outside the system.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 09:20

Goldman: Here's Why The Shorts Will Have To Cover This Week

Last weekend, before the S&P broke out into a series of new all time highs despite Thursday's "harrowing" 1% dip, we shared Goldman's observations on why the market was entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year. Since then, the SPX has hit new all time highs 3 out of the past 5 trading days, and on 9 out of the last 11 even as sentiment substantially declined this week in global equities. For context, on Thursday we observed that the TICK Index logged one of the largest (top 4) selling pressure on the open on record.

For those asking what was behind Thursday's wobble, we mentioned previously listed the reason for the selloff, none of which were new. The general feeling was that equities needed to catch down to other asset classes.

But, as Goldman flow trader Scott Rubner correctly predicted on Friday, when he said that "I think local shorts will need to cover this am" only to see a new all time high in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, the selling is pretty much over "as long dealer gamma muted a larger potential drawdown." Another reason why Goldman expects stocks to keep rising: JPM kicks off the defacto new buyback window on Tuesday.

With that in mind, here is a mini thread from Rubner on “where we came from” and where we are going next.

1. GS Wedge: Since January 2019, Money Markets have seen +$1.707 Trillion inflows and Global Bonds have seen +$1.629 Trillion inflows, while Global Equities just +$154 Billion worth of inflows. GS wedge stands at $3.2 Trillion ~ aka the defensive buffer.

2. Cash on the sidelines is waiting for a dip and bought the Thursday dip.

3. 1H 2021 actually logged the 2nd largest money market inflows on record. 1H 2020 was the largest.

4. The cash pile from 2021 has not been reduced.

5. 1H 2021 Bond inflows seem significant? On pace for best year in a decade.

6. Q1 2021 saw the 3rd largest quarterly inflow on record, Q2 2021 saw the 7th largest on record.

7. Global Equity inflows are the biggest story of the year, but do not seem extreme at all when I zoom out.

Goldman's bottom Line: "We are still in the best two week period of the year, equity inflows are large, 401k are going back into stocks at a record pace. I think local shorts will need to cover."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 09:11

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UK Scrambled Sub-Hunting Aircraft As Russian Submarine 'Stalked' Carrier In Mediterranean

UK media on Friday revealed another major military close encounter with a Russian vessel following the June 23 Black Sea warning shot incident - but this time in the Mediterranean where a Russian submarine was said to be "stalking" the Royal Navy's Carrier Strike Group in the waters.

The Telegraph on Friday broke the following based on defense sources:

A Russian submarine stalked the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group (CSG) prompting a helicopter hunt for the vessel, The Telegraph can reveal.

Merlin helicopters were scrambled to search for the Russian submarine when the group was passing through the eastern Mediterranean.

HMS Queen Elizabeth, Wikimedia Commons

The Royal Navy sub-hunting helicopters as part of their search and identification efforts dropped sonobuoys, specially designed listening and monitoring devices sunk beneath the water which can pick up submarine movements.

The report doesn't identify which specific Russian sub the UK military was on the lookout for, only that it was likely a diesel-electric Kilo-Class submarine from the Black Sea fleet. It was further suggested there was high confidence it was trailing British vessels within the days after the prior Black Sea incident. The sub was said to be stalking the HMS Queen Elizabeth and accompanying strike group vessels.

"The hunt for the submarine took place four days after the confrontation in the Black Sea between HMS Defender, a Type-45 air defence ship, and Russian forces" - The Telegraph report indicates, however, the information is only just now being revealed at the end of this week.

Merlin sub-hunting helicopter, Royal Navy vile image

For years Russia's navy and aerial forces have had a significant presence in the eastern Mediterranean, especially off Syria's coast where the Russian naval base at Tartus is located.

More details on the Royal Navy's scrambling a response effort from The Telegraph report are as follows: 

There are seven such helicopters deployed with the group, and these would likely have been operating in coordination with other anti-submarine assets. These include the two Type-23 frigates HMS Kent and HMS Richmond and the Royal Navy’s deployed hunter-killer submarine, thought to be HMS Astute or HMS Ambush.

While the MoD refused to confirm the incident, understood to have occurred on June 27, it said "robust measures" were in place to protect the CSG, which is on its first operational deployment.    

Source: The Telegraph

HMS Queen Elizabeth and its escort ships are now out of Mediterranean waters after traversing the Suez Canal, and about to enter the Indian Ocean as part of an eight month deployment.

Currently, NATO and allied vessels continue a heavy presence in the Black Sea, especially given the ongoing Sea Breeze 2021 exercises, which involve Ukraine's military participation as well. This sets the stage for potentially more dangerous close encounters with Russia's military, which has warned it will fire upon any vessel breaching its territorial waters.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 08:45

Great article, this is one of my favorites that I come back to time-to-time as I think about possible allocation changes in my portfolio. Excluding my primary residence, 30% of my portfolio is in direct real estate. That’s intentional as I work in real estate professionally and wanted to get exposure in my own portfolio. I am becoming more interested in getting the real estate crowdfunding platforms, but I get hung up on the taxes. I can effectively pay no taxes on direct real estate cashflow due to things like depreciation. But I believe distributions from a crowdfunding platform or REIT are taxed at ordinary income levels. When I sell a property I own I can 1031 and defer capital gains – with a crowdsourcing/REIT I pay cap gains tax. That’s a big difference in after-tax cashflow and proceeds, to the point where I think the additional risk in direct real estate investing vs crowdsourcing/REITS is more than offset. Am I missing something?

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Still More Green Hypocrisy In The EU, This Time Hydrogen

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let's discuss the meaning of "Green" EU style.

Hooray More Green Energy!

The EU is cheering a new hydrogen project at a refinery in Germany. 

The plant will be built by Shell and ITM power and will be able to produce about 1,300 tonnes of hydrogen per year, which can be fully integrated into the refinery processes, such as for the desulphurisation of conventional fuels. It will be the world's largest hydrogen electrolyser. 

Tudor Constantinescu, Principal Advisor, DG ENER at the European Commission stressed the the contribution of green hydrogen to the Energy Union objectives, saying: "Renewable electricity can support decarbonisation not only of the power sector, but, through sectoral integration also of other carbon intensive industries, such as refining. Green Hydrogen is a key enabler in this process, contributing to the Energy Union objectives both in terms of emissions reductions and increased renewables share."

Ten Times the Hydrogen, Ten Times the Cost?

Euractive has some interesting details of the undertaking, allegedly Set to Multiply Capacity tenfold by 2024.

The 10 MW electrolyser, while already Europe’s largest of its kind, is a pilot project for grander ambitions.

If the pilot works out well, the partnership around Shell wants to add another 100 MW of electrolysis capacity which would complete construction in 2024. That would then be the largest electrolyser in the world.

Yet the pilot project depended on financing by the FCH JU at a 50% rate, meaning that the business case for a project ten times larger without public funding would be questionable at best.

Whether those ambitions come to fruition will therefore depend on the carbon price and the amount of additional funding available, which could come from either the EU or Germany.

It is currently unclear whether the FCH JU will again step in and provide funding as it did for the pilot project, as the application review is ongoing, a source told EURACTIV.

European Hydrogen Greenwashing

Eurointelligence looked into the details, and found still more amusing details.

We noted a strange description of how it will work in a Euractiv article sponsored by the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking, a public-private partnership between the EU and the European hydrogen lobby. According to the article, the new plant will produce around 1300 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, provided sufficient amounts of renewable energy are available.

If they are not, the alternative will be to used natural gas to produce the hydrogen. And funnily enough, hydrogen produced by the new electrolyser will be used to refine petroleum at Chemicals Park Rheinland, Germany’s largest refinery.

We thought it was strange that Laschet would tout a renewable project given his backing for coal-fired power plants and general aversion to all things green. But we wonder now whether Refhyne will be green after all. 

We think it is plausible that the EU’s hydrogen development will wind up being dependent on Russian gas.

The EU's Stunning Green Hypocrisy

With that revealed, let's recap my previous report, The EU's Stunning Green Hypocrisy, At Least Trump Was Honest About Targets

If you took Green targets seriously, you would have to reform the Common Agricultural Policy. But the EU failed to do precisely that when they had an opportunity last year. Instead, the EU resorts to cheating. 

The European Commission classifies investment in terms of 0%, 40% and 100% green content, and rounds up the numbers to the next higher target. So 1% becomes 40%. 41% becomes 100%.

When the mendacity of the EU’s climate policy becomes apparent, the centre will not only have lost the victims of the economic crisis, but an entire generation of young voters.

This is the thing with smoke and mirrors: when the smoke lifts, you see clearly.

Too Strict?!

The above snips were also courtesy of Eurointelligence. 

Here's another amusing kicker: It also noted "the most recent set of [rounding up] guidelines, published in 2019, were deemed too strict by some member states and industry lobbyists."

Yes indeed. Clearly there is a need to round 1% up to 49% and 50% up to 120% or whatever.

EU Tries to Convince Trading Partners Its Carbon Tax is Not a Tax

Finally, please consider EU Tries to Convince Trading Partners Its Carbon Tax is Not a Tax.

Recap

This new "Green" hydrogen project needs a 50% subsidy, likely depends on Russian natural gas, and will be used to refine oil.

This we call "Green".

EU hypocrisy on Green Energy is endless.

*  *  *

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 08:10

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Thanks for listening to The Compound and Friends podcast. See you next Friday The Compound channel on YouTube ...

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Pubs In England Will Sell 13 Million Pints During The Euros Final, Despite "Disappointing" COVID Restrictions

With Covid restrictions still in the process of being lifted, one might guess that the sales forecast for restaurants and pubs for Sunday's Euro 2020 soccer championship between Italy and England could be uncertain.

But that doesn't seem to be the case, according to a new report in The Guardian, which estimates that pubs in England will sell 13 million pints on the day of the final. However, the report still notes that "strict rules" in place, for many pubs, means that hosting the finals "will not be enough to rescue their struggling finances."

While pub crowds are usually higher by about 200% to 300% on match days, Covid restrictions have meant that sales for the Euro 2020 have only been up about 60% on match days, the report says. 

Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of industry trade body UKHospitality, said: “We are seeing an uplift in drinks sales on match days but because of capacity constraints it is nowhere near as much as it would usually be.”

For example, one pub in Norwich will be "full" - but the owner notes that this only means 30 customers. The owner said: “We are obviously fully booked. I’ve been turning away people for weeks who want to watch the football but social distancing and the need to be seated limits our capacity. I think everybody’s grateful to be trading again but it’s still very difficult.”

Still, The British Beer and Pub Association says 13 million pints will be sold on Sunday and 7.1 million will be sold during the match itself. Without Covid restrictions, that number would be likely closer to 17 million, the report says. 

“It has brought people together though and pubs are the next best thing to being there,” one owner said, also commenting he was disappointed about the restrictions and could have "taken a lot more" customers. 

But make no mistake about it: if England wins the Euro, restrictions may not be able to keep the crowd in check. Another pub owner stated: “Publicans have worked incredibly hard to abide by the rules and regulations, but whatever the rules are, people will sing and celebrate if England win.” 

“Our main tactic has been to inform customers what is expected when they arrive, not after they have had a few,” Alistair Skitt, who runs the Lord High Admiral pub in Plymouth said. “Our staff make it very clear Covid rules are still being enforced: that customers have to wear masks when they go to the toilet, and there should be no excessive shouting and screaming at the screen, which is very difficult to enforce as I’m sure you can imagine.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 07:35

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Assange To Be "Moved Around" Sine Die

Authored by Ray McGovern via AntiWar.com,

Very bad news for those who still care about freedom of the press and what the fate of Julian Assange means for the artifact-First Amendment added to the US Constitution 240 years ago. The UK High Court just announced it will hear the US appeal of a lower court decision against extraditing Julian Assange. Godot is likely to arrive before the US/UK finish the legal pantomime denying Assange his freedom.

The High Court decision solidifies Britain’s status as a US vassal state – the 800-year legacy of the Magna Carta be damned. Giving obsequious hypocrisy a bad name, the High Court’s announcement comes a week and half after the prime witness for the latest indictment of Assange recanted his testimony.

It should come as no surprise that British "Justice" officials are following the detailed "Washington Playbook" approach that was exposed by WikiLeaks itself in Feb. 2012.

Some readers may recall that WikiLeaks-revealed confidential emails from the US private intelligence firm Stratfor mentioned that the US already had a secret indictment against the WikiLeaks founder. Bad enough.

Inspector Javert

What also showed up in the Stratfor emails was the unrelenting, Inspector-Javert-type approach taken by one Fred Burton, Stratfor’s Vice-President for Counterterrorism and Corporate Security. (Burton had been Deputy Chief of the Department of State’s counterterrorism division for the Diplomatic Security Service.)

Here’s Javert – I mean Burton:

"Move him [Assange] from country to country to face charges for the next 25 years. But seize everything he and his family own, to include every person linked to Wiki." [my comment: "country to country", or – equally effective – court to court]

"Pursue conspiracy and political terrorism charges and declassify the death of a source, someone which could link to Wiki."

"Assange is a peacenik. He needs his head dunked in a full toilet bowl at Gitmo."

“Take down the money. Go after his infrastructure. The tools we are using to nail and de-construct Wiki are the same tools used to dismantle and track al-Qaeda."

"Bankrupt the arsehole first; ruin his life. Give him 7-12 years for conspiracy."

"Assange is going to make a nice bride in prison. Screw the terrorist. He’ll be eating cat food forever... extradition to the US is more and more likely."

Published by WikiLeaks in 2012: Correspondence from private security contractor Stratfor on how to handle arrest of Julian #Assange

"Pile on. Move him from country to country to face various charges for the next 25 years.." https://t.co/8gAOsF4dGQ pic.twitter.com/iUO4IkdKEL

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) July 8, 2021

Nice people – once sworn under oath "to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic". Since comparisons are invidious, apologies to "Javert" and Victor Hugo.

Meanwhile Back at Belmarsh

It is not clear whether the likes of Fred Burton have been able to dictate the menu for Julian Assange (but who would be surprised?). What is clear is that, unless a major grassroots campaign can gather more steam, and soon, Julian is likely to be moved from court to court, prison to prison – all under color of law – until they destroy what is left of him. It is a sad pantomime, a mockery of justice. Talk about Les Miserables!

As UN Rapporteur for Torture Nils Melzer has pointed out, Julian Assange is being subjected to psychological torture – in full view of the rest of the world. And, as reprehensible as this crime is – still more is at stake for democracies, which cannot exist without a free media.

Last Saturday Julian Assange "celebrated" his 50th birthday in London’s high-security Belmarsh Prison. I was asked to record a message to be loud-speakered at the demonstration in support of Julian before the prison that day. Here is the recording. For those lacking appreciation for my singing, the 8-minute talk is transcribed here.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Five undervaccinated clusters put the entire United States at risk Clusters of unvaccinated people, most of them in the southern United States, are vulnerable to surges in Covid-19 cases and could become breeding grounds for even more deadly Covid-19 variants: Starting in Georgia and stretching west to Texas and north to Missouri + include parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Tennessee. see also (CNN) Trump Country Rejects Vaccines Despite Growing Delta Threat President Biden missed a July 4 target for shots after politically conservative areas balked (Bloomberg)

• This Is Tax Evasion, Plain and Simple The race to the bottom on corporate taxes has gone on for too long. Since the 1980s, countries have competed for business by reducing companies’ taxes. A few nations, like Ireland and Bermuda, have adopted extremely low rates and become tax havens for companies like Google and Apple. Last week, 130 countries, including the United States, agreed to a blueprint to tax their companies’ profits at a minimum 15 percent rate — no matter where the profits are booked. (New York Times)

• The Hidden Costs of Dollar General When the dollar stores moved in, they started driving grocery stores out. Local grocers blamed it on what they called the Walmart effect. When Walmart Supercenters arrived in neighboring areas, offering huge selections of goods at low prices, people started driving to them rather than shopping locally. Smaller stores couldn’t compete. (Slate)

• A Banking App Has Been Suddenly Closing Accounts, Sometimes Not Returning Customers’ Money Chime, a “neobank” serving millions, is racking up complaints from users who can’t access their cash. The company says it’s cracking down on an “extraordinary surge” in fraudulent deposits. That’s little consolation to customers caught in the fray. (ProPublica)

• Ransomware Is the IRS of Bitcoin: It doesn’t really matter how inconvenient it is to pay in bitcoin when you don’t have any other choice (Wall Street Journal) see also How to Negotiate with Ransomware Hackers ‘You’re a very talented hacker, and we’d like to pay you for that. But we can’t pay what you’re asking.’ ” (New Yorker)

• You Really Need to Quit Twitter: How could I have succumbed to this common, embarrassing habit that just about everyone on Earth knows is a scourge? (The Atlantic)

• The Secret History of Gavin McInnes: In the ’90s, he played punk rock and helped create Vice magazine. Five years ago, he founded a very different organization: the Proud Boys, the far-right group that came to personify the vilest tendencies of Trump’s America. A former Vice editor interviews one of our era’s most troubling extremists. (Vanity Fair)

• What Makes a Cult a Cult? The line between delusion and what the rest of us believe may be blurrier than we think. (New Yorker)

• While Trump planted the seed for Jan. 6, others — including Fox News — watered it A former Fox executive, for example, blames the network (Washington Post) see also From corporate America to conspiracy theory promotion: How a Minnesota man made a career out of anonymously amplifying dark plots  For more than a decade, the 53-year-old has also pursued a less conventional path: anonymously promoting conspiracy theories about dark forces in American politics on websites and social media accounts in a business he runs out of his home. (Washington Post)

• ‘In the End We Felt Betrayed’: Vietnamese Veterans See Echoes in Afghanistan Those who continued fighting for South Vietnam in 1975 know what it’s like when an American-made military is suddenly left with little support. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

There’s A Stark Red-Blue Divide When It Comes To States’ Vaccination Rates

Source: NPR

 

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Darryl Cooper: Why Trump Supporters Are Pissed Off And Don't Trust Anything

As the ruling class went to absurd lengths to try and dismantle Donald Trump, pissed off supporters watched in horror as a captured media peddled lie after lie - typically based on anonymous leaks from deep state bureaucrats, and as  powerful agents within America's intelligence apparatus falsified evidence and collaborated with foreign operatives paid by Trump's political opponents.

In doing so, they exposed themselves to anyone not already paying attention.

Darryl Cooper, aka @MartyrMade, has assembled what might be the most accurate summation of why Trump supporters - the vast majority of conservatives - are livid after the past five years. Cooper, a researcher and writer, is the co-host of The Unraveling Podcast with retired US Navy SEAL commander Jocko Willink, and has hosted several deep-dive podcasts on a number of topics.

Read below:

Most believe some or all of the theories involving midnight ballots, voting machines, etc, but what you find when you talk to them is that, while they'll defend those positions w/info they got from Hannity or Breitbart or whatever, they're not particularly attached to them. 2/x

— MartyrMade (@martyrmade) July 8, 2021

(continued via Threadreader, emphasis ours)

thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413167857697910784" dir="auto" id="tweet_4">Here are the facts - actual, confirmed facts - that shape their perspective: 1) The FBI/etc spied on the 2016 Trump campaign using evidence manufactured by the Clinton campaign. We now know that all involved knew it was fake from Day 1 (see: Brennan's July 2016 memo, etc). These are Tea Party people. The types who give their kids a pocket Constitution for their birthday and have Founding Fathers memes in their bios. The intel community spying on a presidential campaign using fake evidence (incl forged documents) is a big deal to them. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413167857697910784" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413169089560813568" dir="auto" id="tweet_6">Everyone involved lied about their involvement as long as they could. We only learned the DNC paid for the manufactured evidence because of a court order. Comey denied on TV knowing the DNC paid for it, when we have emails from a year earlier proving that he knew. This was true with everyone, from CIA Dir Brennan & Adam Schiff - who were on TV saying they'd seen clear evidence of collusion w/Russia, while admitting under oath behind closed doors that they hadn't - all the way down the line. In the end we learned that it was ALL fake. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413169089560813568" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413171873051930626" dir="auto" id="tweet_8">At first, many Trump ppl were worried there must be some collusion, because every media & intel agency wouldn't make it up out of nothing. When it was clear that they had made it up, people expected a reckoning, and shed many illusions about their gov't when it didn't happen. We know as fact: a) The Steele dossier was the sole evidence used to justify spying on the Trump campaign, b) The FBI knew the Steele dossier was a DNC op, c) Steele's source told the FBI the info was unserious, d) they did not inform the court of any of this and kept spying.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413171873051930626" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413171873051930626" dir="auto"> thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413171873051930626" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413174637077274624" dir="auto" id="tweet_10">Trump supporters know the collusion case front and back. They went from worrying the collusion must be real, to suspecting it might be fake, to realizing it was a scam, then watched as every institution - agencies, the press, Congress, academia - gaslit them for another year. Worse, collusion was used to scare people away from working in the administration. They knew their entire lives would be investigated. Many quit because they were being bankrupted by legal fees. The DoJ, press, & gov't destroyed lives and actively subverted an elected admin.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413174637077274624" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413176502229733376" dir="auto" id="tweet_12">This is where people whose political identity was largely defined by a naive belief in what they learned in Civics class began to see the outline of a Regime that crossed all institutional boundaries. Because it had stepped out of the shadows to unite against an interloper. GOP propaganda still has many of them thinking in terms of partisan binaries, but A LOT of Trump supporters see that the Regime is not partisan. They all know that the same institutions would have taken opposite sides if it was a Tulsi Gabbard vs Jeb Bush election.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413176502229733376" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413179358454317056" dir="auto" id="tweet_15">It's hard to describe to people on the left (who are used to thinking of gov't as a conspiracy... Watergate, COINTELPRO, WMD, etc) how shocking & disillusioning this was for people who encourage their sons to enlist in the Army, and hate ppl who don't stand for the Anthem. They could have managed the shock if it only involved the government. But the behavior of the corporate press is really what radicalized them. They hate journalists more than they hate any politician or gov't official, because they feel most betrayed by them. The idea that the press is driven by ratings/sensationalism became untenable. If that were true, they'd be all over the Epstein story. The corporate press is the propaganda arm of the Regime they now see in outline. Nothing anyone says will ever make them unsee that, period. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413179358454317056" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413183232476995585" dir="auto" id="tweet_17">This is profoundly disorienting. Many of them don't know for certain whether ballots were faked in November 2020, but they know for absolute certain that the press, the FBI, etc would lie to them if there was. They have every reason to believe that, and it's probably true. They watched the press behave like animals for four years. Tens of millions of people will always see Kavanaugh as a gang rapist, based on nothing, because of CNN. And CNN seems proud of that. They led a lynch mob against a high school kid. They cheered on a summer of riots.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413183232476995585" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413183232476995585" dir="auto"> thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413183232476995585" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413186468038594562" dir="auto" id="tweet_19">They always claimed the media had liberal bias, fine, whatever. They still thought the press would admit truth if they were cornered. Now they don't. It's a different thing to watch them invent stories whole cloth in order to destroy regular lives and spark mass violence. Time Mag told us that during the 2020 riots, there were weekly conference calls involving, among others, leaders of the protests, the local officials who refused to stop them, and media people who framed them for political effect. In Ukraine we call that a color revolution.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413186468038594562" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413188573541539842" dir="auto" id="tweet_21">Throughout the summer, Democrat governors took advantage of COVID to change voting procedures. It wasn't just the mail-ins (they lowered signature matching standards, etc). After the collusion scam, the fake impeachment, Trump ppl expected shenanigans by now. Re: "fake impeachment", we now know that Trump's request for Ukraine to cooperate w/the DOJ regarding Biden's $ activities in Ukraine was in support of an active investigation being pursued by the FBI and Ukraine AG at the time, and so a completely legitimate request.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413188573541539842" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413189749997596672" dir="auto" id="tweet_23">Then you get the Hunter laptop scandal. Big Tech ran a full-on censorship campaign against a major newspaper to protect a political candidate. Period. Everyone knows it, all of the Tech companies now admit it was a "mistake" - but, ya know, the election's over, so who cares? Goes w/o saying, but: If the NY Times had Don Jr's laptop, full of pics of him smoking crack and engaging in group sex, lots of lurid family drama, emails describing direct corruption and backed up by the CEO of the company they were using, the NYT wouldn't have been banned.

The way liberal journalists just ignore what was, to me, one of the most repressive events of the Trump years -- Big Tech **censored** reporting on the Hunter Biden docs about Joe's business deals to help Dems -- is still stunning. 3 weeks before the election, they barred links. https://t.co/WKWlkU01be

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 9, 2021 thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413193551073087488" dir="auto" id="tweet_26">Think back: Stories about Trump being pissed on by Russian prostitutes and blackmailed by Putin were promoted as fact, and the only evidence was a document paid for by his opposition and disavowed by its source. The NY Post was banned for reporting on true information. The reaction of Trump ppl to all this was not, "no fair!" That's how they felt about Romney's "binders of women" in 2012. This is different. Now they see, correctly, that every institution is captured by ppl who will use any means to exclude them from the political process. And yet they showed up in record numbers to vote. He got 13m more votes than in 2016, 10m more than Clinton got! As election night dragged on, they allowed themselves some hope. But when the four critical swing states (and only those states) went dark at midnight, they knew. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413195360210620421" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413195360210620421" dir="auto" id="tweet_28">Over the ensuing weeks, they got shuffled around by grifters and media scam artists selling them conspiracy theories. They latched onto one, then another increasingly absurd theory as they tried to put a concrete name on something very real  Media & Tech did everything to make things worse. Everything about the election was strange - the changes to procedure, unprecedented mail-in voting, the delays, etc - but rather than admit that and make everything transparent, they banned discussion of it (even in DMs!).  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413195360210620421" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413196007442042880" dir="auto" id="tweet_29">Everyone knows that, just as Don Jr's laptop would've been the story of the century, if everything about the election dispute was the same, except the parties were reversed, suspicions about the outcome would've been Taken Very Seriously. See 2016 for proof.  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413196007442042880" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413197046404698119" dir="auto" id="tweet_31">Even the courts' refusal of the case gets nowhere w/them, because of how the opposition embraced mass political violence. They'll say, w/good reason: What judge will stick his neck out for Trump knowing he'll be destroyed in the media as a violent mob burns down his house? It's a fact, according to Time Magazine, that mass riots were planned in cities across the country if Trump won. Sure, they were "protests", but they were planned by the same people as during the summer, and everyone knows what it would have meant. Judges have families, too. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413197046404698119" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413201138959065088" dir="auto" id="tweet_34">Forget the ballot conspiracies. It's a fact that governors used COVID to unconstitutionally alter election procedures (the Constitution states that only legislatures can do so) to help Biden to make up for a massive enthusiasm gap by gaming the mail-in ballot system. They knew it was unconstitutional, it's right there in plain English. But they knew the cases wouldn't see court until after the election. And what judge will toss millions of ballots because a governor broke the rules? The threat of mass riots wasn't implied, it was direct. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413201138959065088" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413203117928112129" dir="auto" id="tweet_35">a) The entrenched bureaucracy & security state subverted Trump from Day 1, b) The press is part of the operation, c) Election rules were changed, d) Big Tech censors opposition, e) Political violence is legitimized & encouraged, f) Trump is banned from social media. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413203117928112129" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413203117928112129" dir="auto">They were led down some rabbit holes, but they are absolutely right that their gov't is monopolized by a Regime that believes they are beneath representation, and will observe no limits to keep them getting it. Trump fans should be happy he lost; it might've kept him alive. thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413203117928112129" dir="auto">  thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="martyrmade" data-tweet="1413203117928112129" dir="auto">/end

As long as you’re here, check out my podcast. The most recent episode was on the Soviet takeover of Eastern Europe. There’s also a series on the early history of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and one on Jim Jones’ Peoples’ Temple movement. https://t.co/oJE6176rND

— MartyrMade (@martyrmade) July 8, 2021

This is an absolutely brilliant exposition on the underlying mindset, grievances and motivations of Trump/MAGA supporters. It's not as cathartic as screaming Racist and Fascist but much more illuminating. Don't agree with every particular, etc. etc., but hope everyone reads this: https://t.co/VuHink6ouK

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 9, 2021 Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 04:55

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