Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Welcome to the sixth episode of The Compound & Friends, a new podcast from your favorite financial and investing commentators. This week, Michael Batnick, Jason Snipe of Odyssey Capital Advisors and Downtown Josh Brown discuss: ►Retail Investors Power the World ►Dissatisfied advisors ►Biggest takeaways from the CapGemini Ultra High Net Worth survey ►Under-rated & under-followed stocks for this summer &amp...

The post Ultra High Net Worth appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

My end of week morning train WFH reads:

• A Memo to Investors That’s it. That’s the stock-picking game. Stocks are not pieces of art. They are not fiat money. Cults of personality do not last forever in the stock market. Narratives break. Eventually, everyone figured out that Galileo was right. Eventually, everyone will figure out that Cathie Wood isn’t. And it won’t take as long either. (Albert Bridge Capital)

• A Great Inflation Redux? Economists Point to Big Differences. Prices climbed for years before the runaway inflation of the 1970s. Economists see parallels today, but the differences are just as important. (New York Times) but see Everything feels more expensive because it is Why are prices going up? Used cars, gas, and groceries seem more expensive because they are. (Vox)

• Three months, 700 steps: Why it takes so long to produce a computer chip The U.S. Senate has set aside $52 billion in hopes of increasing the U.S. share of semiconductor manufacturing. A visit to a chip fab in Upstate New York shows why that might not be enough. (Washington Post)

• Vinyl Is More Popular Than Ever. Surprisingly, That’s a Problem Pressing plants can’t keep up with unprecedented demand, and big box chains are selling LPs now, resulting in devastating delays. (Vice)

• Are Private Equity Firms to Blame For Rising Home Prices? Wall Street is an easy scapegoat. The real villain lives much closer to home. (Marker)

• Why Generation Z falls for online misinformation We can all learn from how today’s young people evaluate truth online. (MIT Technology Review)

• The Tech Cold War’s ‘Most Complicated Machine’ That’s Out of China’s Reach A $150 million chip-making tool from a Dutch company has become a lever in the U.S.-Chinese struggle. It also shows how entrenched the global supply chain is.  (New York Times)

• Dining Out, Digitized: Many restaurants dropped printed menus during the pandemic in favor of QR codes sending diners to online ordering platforms. Will eating out be the same? (Bloomberg)

• Whether Republicans Get Vaccinated Has A Lot To Do With If They Watch Fox News … Or OANN Republicans who got their news from OANN or Newsmax were generally more extreme in their beliefs around QAnon and in their refusal to get vaccinated than those who got their news from Fox News. Meanwhile, Fox News Republicans were often more in line with Republicans who got their news from other mainstream outlets. (FiveThirtyEight)

• Cricket is Having its Moneyball Moment When Twenty20 launched, the game of cricket changed forever. Now a team of data evangelists are taking the sport to the next level. (Wired)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

Americans’ Life Ratings Reach Record High

Source: Gallup

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

During this past Spring, I have been showing a lot of open-top cars. After all, it is a great time of year for top-down driving. This leads us to Jaguar E-Type — the sexiest and perhaps most beautiful convertible ever made.

Even Enzo Ferrari called the E-Type ‘The most beautiful car ever made.” And a 150-mph top speed didn’t hurt either. The 3.8-litre XK straight-six made 265bhp from the factory.

From 1961 through 1975, the E-Type was continually upgraded, while still retaining its spectacular styling. Disc brakes, rack-and-pinion steering, and independent front and rear suspension. Arguably innovations at Jag spurred the rest of the industry to make changes in its engineering. But these changes were not always for the better: Hargerty’s UK Buyers Guide points out that from 1964 onwards, the engine grew to 4.2 litres. The clear headlamp covers were deleted in 1967, and the line of dashboard toggle switches was replaced by rocker switches. In 1973, the Series 3 was made with the 5.3-litre V12.

These are beautiful cars, and can make a lovely Sunday driver for someone willing to put in some time and effort to maintain them. The Series I (like the one below) are the most valuable; you can find nice drivers in Series 2s for less money.

Series 1 cars can be identified by the glass-covered front headlights, the small opening in the grill. There is a week left in this auction, and it’s already up to $70k. Clean versions of these go for $75-100 and those rated “excellent’ can be twice that.

 

 

Source: Bring A Trailer

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Friday posts are always more on the quirky side of finance and sometimes just a pure WTF moment. One such moment occurred when I read a paper by Chao Ma from Xiamen University, who investigated the behaviour of Chinese drivers. Personally, I am a pretty careful driver who has not had an accident in almost 15 years and who is obsessed with keeping his premium discount for accident-free driving. In most countries, and this includes China, drivers get a discount on their car insurance for driving accident-free. 

Yet, human beings seem to be unable to remember this unless they are in the process of renewing their policy. The monthly insurance premiums are salient all the time, the discount only once a year. And this triggers the sunk cost fallacy. Towards the end of their contract, drivers are acutely aware of all the money they have spent on insurance without getting anything in return. So, in for a penny, in for a pound, they seem to say and start to drive more recklessly in the last month of their insurance contract. The chart below shows the number of accidents by policy holders sorted by the months since the policy has been taken. The WTF moment is obvious. The two spikes in accidents in months 12 and 24 just before the policy expires. The research indicates that about 2%-3% of all accidents by individual drivers in China are due to this sunk cost effect. Given that Chinese car insurers pay claims of about $69bn each year, this means that somewhere between $1.4bn to $2bn in annual accident claims may be due to drivers forgetting about their insurance discounts in China alone. As Albert Einstein once said, there are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, but I am not sure about the former.

Rate of accidents sorted by month after the car insurance policy has been taken

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Source: Ma (2021).

Bought: ADT
Added to: AXTA MSGE NLSN LAZ TAP PGR NVT WBA

Bought: GOLD
Added to: APA JNJ WBA VIAC NLSN ORCL BWA LH SJM MSGE BOKF MHK LMT WU GS BK PGR NTRS ZBH SWK TISI

Final Trades: Boeing, Uber, Invitation Homes & more from CNBC. ...

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What 4.8 Million Scams Look Like

click for interactive graphic

Source: Businessweek

 

 

We spend a lot of time and effort in the office on security; we have to make sure everybody is up to speed on the latest phishing and identify theft scams, and how to keep client accounts secure, and all that. It’s a never-ending battle, an arms race between technology and human error.

If you think you know all of the scams out there just waiting to defraud you, think again. There were 4.8 million reports in 2020, a 43% increase from 2019. And forged government benefits applications, including unemployment insurance, were up 30-fold year over year.

Thank the folks at Businessweek for delving into the FTC’s database of 4.8 million scams. You can see all of the major categories here.

The post All the Ways You Can Get Defrauded appeared first on The Big Picture.

Updated on July 8th, 2021 by Nikolaos Sismanis Altimeter Capital Management is a Boston-based multi-billion dollar technology-focused investment firm managing a long/short public equity fund and private growth equity funds. The firm was initially founded by Brad Gerstner in 2008, in Menlo Park, California, and currently has around $13.9 billion worth of Assets Under Management […]

The post Altimeter Capital Management’s 21 Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Holdings Analyzed appeared first on Sure Dividend.

Thank god this show is coming back. It’s my favorite thing on TV over the last couple of years after Billions of course. The last time they were dropping a season, I got to hang with Logan Roy (thanks to my pal Lisa, also pictured, for reminding me of this glorious day): Counting down for season 3! ...

The post Succession season 3 teaser hits! appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

 

We discuss the need to manage emotions when it comes to investing.

 

Risk and Reward Are Two Sides of the Same

Source: Bloomberg, July 6th, 2021

 

The post Avoiding the Sins of Investing appeared first on The Big Picture.

My morning train WFH reads:

• Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital Billions are getting pilfered annually through a variety of cryptocurrency scams. In today’s cryptocurrencies, it’s known as the rug pull: Shit Coins, obscure digital something-or-others are being minted by the thousands. Telegram (a popular instant messaging app) has become a major crypto boiler room “Everybody I know has gotten rug-pulled.” The way things are going, this will only get worse. (Bloomberg Wealth)

• Is This the End of the ‘Fiery’ Public Versus Private Equity Debate? 60/40 portfolios: when private assets are included within the equity allocation, the fund’s performance is stronger than its private equity-less counterparts. This is true even when underperforming funds are involved. (Institutional Investor)

• The Sound of My Inbox The financial promise of email newsletters has launched countless micropublications — and created a new literary genre. The contemporary email newsletter is not a novel form; often it amounts to a new delivery system for the same sorts of content — essays, explainers, Q&As, news roundups, advice, and lists — that have long been staples of online media. (The Cut)

• Other People’s Money Once you start to view your personal balance sheet as a business, you start to question where your capital is parked and why. Do you really need a ton of equity in your home, a slow growing asset? Would that money earn more in the stock market? Are you comfortable with how borrowing changes your monthly cash flow? (The Belle Curve)

• Before investing in Robinhood or trusting it with your money, read these documents Finra accused Robinhood of plying millions of customers with “false or misleading information” about their account balances, of leaving millions of customers unable to trade because its IT systems broke down at crucial moments, and of approving thousands of customers for options trading even though it should have known they were unqualified to play the options market. (Los Angeles Times) see also The Robinhood Conundrum 47% of traders use the product on a daily basis. Among those customers who visted the app on a daily basis, the average number of visits was seven per day. More than 98% of users use the app on a monthly basis. This type of engagement and usage is insanely high for an investment product. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• The Downtown Office District Was Vulnerable. Even Before Covid. The modern downtown business districts of many large American cities were created through subtraction: First residents left the center city, then the craftsmen and wholesalers, then the museums, theaters and smaller retailers, and — the final blow — the department stores. (Upshot)

• Why do we buy what we buy? A sociologist on why people buy too many things. What’s at the root of modern American consumerism? It might not just be competition among the brands trying to sell us things, but also competition among ourselves. American consumerism is also built on societal factors that are often overlooked. And in an increasingly unequal society, the Joneses at the very top are doing a lot of the consuming, while the people at the bottom struggle to keep up. (Vox)

• To Expand U.S. Vaccine Access, Consider the Dollar Store: The dollar store footprint lends itself to thinking about this broader aim of making vaccines available right where people are located, and the people that are disproportionately under-vaccinated in so many of our cities and communities right now. Dollar stores could be key access points for reaching vulnerable populations who have limited access to health care services, and sometimes lack trust in the system. (Citylab)

• These Superheroes Could Sharply Reduce Heat Deaths At a time when climate change is making heat waves more frequent and more severe, trees are stationary superheroes: They can lower urban temperatures 10 lifesaving degrees, scientists say. (New York Times)

• Hubble on the Bubble: Can NASA fix the world’s most famous telescope? Hubble is over 30 years old, and before this latest issue still working very well. It has tech considered ancient in it, but it’s still ticking. Or at least it will be once again when this problem is righted. (Syfy Wire)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Christine Hurtsellers, CEO of Voya Investment Management. The firm manages over $245 billion in assets. Hurtsellers was recently named to Barrons’s top 10 most influential women in wealth management.

 

In Defense of Global Stocks

Source: Of Dollars and Data

 

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

People who know me for a while know that I am a big fan of infrastructure investments. In particular, I like direct infrastructure investments, both green and traditional. Before I moved to the UK, I did not know about the large number of listed infrastructure funds in the UK that allow investors with every budget to invest in this asset class. Without endorsing any specific fund and reminding everyone to do their own due diligence before investing in any of these funds, you can get an overview of the listed closed-end funds in the infrastructure and renewable energy space at the homepage of The AIC.

But investors also need to be aware that infrastructure investments are not as straightforward as they might think. One of the most common reasons why investors want to get a hold of infrastructure assets is because they promise stable cash flows that often are linked to inflation. And in a yield-starved world getting a stable dividend of 5% or more is indeed very tempting.

But when you look at the actual performance of closed-end funds and direct infrastructure investments, then their cash flows look anything but stable and in fact resemble more the cash flows of traditional private equity and direct real estate funds.

Distributions of infrastructure funds, private equity and real estate over time

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Source: Andonov et al. (2021)

A new paper explains why. The underlying cash flows from the infrastructure assets are indeed very stable, but they only make a small part of the total cash flows of the investment. The bulk of the cash flows are generated by selling existing assets and distributing the proceeds to investors, just like a private equity or venture cap fund would do.

Simulated cash flows of infrastructure funds

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Source: Andonov et al. (2021)

In fact, the main explanatory variable for the difference in performance between a top quartile and a bottom quartile infrastructure fund is how well the asset manager is able to exit an investment at a profit within the first five years of the fund’s life.

As they say in investing, a successful investment requires two good decisions, the decision to buy and the decision to sell. So far, the decision to sell generally was quite easy to make. As more and more investors increased their exposure to infrastructure investments, there were plenty of buyers for existing assets. Exits were easy and prices achieved were high. But as the asset class matures, less and less new money will flow into it and exits will become harder to do profitably – especially if you have paid too much for an asset when you bought it. This will mean that returns for infrastructure funds will likely decline over time, just like they did for private equity and venture capital. And it will become more and more important for investors to do their due diligence and invest in high-quality asset managers that don’t overpay for assets.

I love reading pieces that challenge your beliefs or the prevailing narrative. Something landed in my inbox recently that did both of those things. Much has been made over the Blackstones of the world and the impact that they’re having on the housing market. Home prices, as you’ve probably noticed, are on fire. In Are Private Equity Firms to Blame for Rising Home Prices? Coby Lefkowitz gave some background on...

The post Who’s Driving Up Home Prices? appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Investors shouldn’t make decisions based on 10-year bond yields, says Josh Brown from CNBC. ...

The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

For over a year, I’ve been kicking around a blog idea in my head that I just couldn’t figure out how to write. The premise – America has a math problem. That math problem became painfully clear to me during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. I cringed each time I heard a misguided quip about how dangerous the virus was (or wasn’t) depending on the commenter’s news source. I clutched my ...

The post Unknown Unknowns appeared first on The Belle Curve.

Published on July 7th, 2021 by Bob Ciura Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (AVAL) is a financial services company that operates in Colombia and Central America. The stock also offers a dividend yield of nearly 5.0% at the present moment. Grupo Aval also pays a monthly dividend, which allows shareholders to receive income on a […]

The post Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores appeared first on Sure Dividend.

It’s no secret that tech giants have exploded in value over the last few years, but the scale can be hard to comprehend.

Through wide-scaling market penetration, smart diversification, and the transformation of products into services, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have reached market capitalizations well above $1.5 trillion.

To help us better understand these staggering numbers, a recent study at Mackeeper took the market capitalization of multiple tech giants and compared them with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries.

Editor’s note: While these numbers are interesting to compare, it’s worth noting that they represent different things. Market cap is the total value of shares outstanding in a publicly-traded company and gives an indication of total valuation, and GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced by a country in an entire year.

Companies vs. Countries: Tech Giants

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If Apple’s market capitalization was equal to a country’s annual GDP, it might just be in the G7.

At a market cap of more than $2.1 trillion, Apple’s market capitalization is larger than 96% of country GDPs, a list that includes Italy, Brazil, Canada, and Russia.

In fact, only seven countries in the world have a higher GDP than Apple’s market cap.

Further back is Microsoft, which would be the 10th richest country in the world if market cap was equivalent to GDP.

With a market cap of more than $1.9 trillion, Microsoft’s value is larger than the GDP of global powerhouses Brazil, Canada, Russia, and South Korea.

Though all of the tech giants fared well during the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps none have stood to benefit as much as Amazon.

With online retail and web services both in high demand, Amazon’s market cap has grown to $1.7 trillion, larger than 92% of country GDPs.

Other Companies “Bigger” Than Countries

Tech giants aren’t the only companies that would give countries a run for their money.

Country/CompanyNominal GDP (country) or Market Cap (company) United States of America$21,433 B China$14,343 B Japan$5,082 B Germany$3,861 B India$2,869 B United Kingdom$2,829 B France$2,716 B Apple$2,125 B Italy$2,004 B Microsoft$1,942 B Saudi Aramco$1,888 B Brazil$1,840 B Canada$1,736 B Russia$1700 B Amazon$1,688 B Alphabet$1,656 B South Korea$1,647 B Australia$1,397 B Spain$1,393 B Mexico$1,269 B Indonesia$1,119 B Facebook$939 B Netherlands$907 B Saudi Arabia$793 B Turkey$761 B Tencent$736 B Switzerland$703 B Poland$596 B Market cap data as of June 13, 2021

Saudi Arabia’s state-owned corporation Saudi Aramco also makes the list, boasting a market cap more than double the GDP of its home country.

China’s tech giant Tencent also has a market cap that towers over many country GDPs, such as those of Switzerland or Poland.

Until recently, Tencent was also ahead of fellow tech giant Facebook in market cap, but the social network has climbed ahead and almost reached $1 trillion in market capitalization.

Of course, the biggest caveat to consider with these comparisons is the difference between market cap and GDP numbers.

A company’s market cap is a proxy of its net worth in the eyes of public markets and changes constantly, while GDP measures the economic output of a country in a given year.

But companies directly and indirectly affect the economies of countries around the world. With international reach, wealth accumulation, and impact, it’s important to consider just how much wealth and power these companies have.

The post The World’s Tech Giants, Compared to the Size of Economies appeared first on Visual Capitalist.

The following content is sponsored by RYAH MedTech

When Big Data and Plant-Based Medical Treatments Collide

Plant-based medical treatments are gaining popularity, as consumers become increasingly more privy to their various health benefits.

By 2030, the global botanical and plant-derived drug market is expected to reach $37.8 billion, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%.

Yet, while its future looks promising, the industry still some roadblocks to overcome. This graphic by RYAH MedTech looks at the key issues the plant-based medical industry is facing, and how big data can help solve them.

Key Industry Roadblocks

Plant-based treatments—such as medical cannabis—have come a long way in recent years. However, inconsistencies in regulation and dosage are making it hard for the industry to reach its full potential.

• Inconsistent regulation
  Access to medical cannabis is still not equal across America, but legalization is becoming increasingly more widespread. For instance, Kansas passed a bill earlier this year that will legalize medical cannabis, as soon as the legislation is passed through the Senate.
• Inconsistent dosage standards
  While consumers have expressed a desire for standardized dosing, there is no current jurisdiction to guide consumption. For example, studies have shown a lack of genetic consistency among different products that claim to use the same strain.
• Knowledge gap
  Many physicians see the value in plant-based treatments, but some still don’t feel comfortable talking to patients about it. A recent survey found that 50% of Michigan-based healthcare respondents—where medical cannabis has been legal since 2008—didn’t feel comfortable answering patient questions about medical cannabis.

In order to overcome these challenges, the industry needs to fill the knowledge gap and ultimately boost credibility.

For this to happen, plant-based treatments need to become more predictable and standardized. And that’s where big data and analytics can help.

Big Data’s Big Role in the Industry

Big data refers to large datasets that continually grow. These datasets are made up of information that is sourced from things like apps, devices, and online platforms. The need to leverage data in the plant-based medicine industry has resulted in an explosion of innovation.

RYAH MedTech collects massive amounts of patient data through devices such as smart inhalers, pens, and patches. These devices track, synthesize, and analyze patient information, which can help create a more personalized treatment plan tailored to the patient and their specific needs.

In addition to helping boost the patient’s experience, big data also has the potential to fill the knowledge gap within the plant-based medical industry and give physicians the information they need, which could boost its overall credibility.

Data is the Answer

Plant-based medical treatments have vast potential—so much so, that adjacent industries are taking measures to protect their market share.

But the industry needs to become more standardized before it can level up. This is why companies like RYAH MedTech are helping to close the gap in missing data, through a suite of IoT devices and software.

The post When Big Data and Plant-Based Medical Treatments Collide appeared first on Visual Capitalist.

Episode #327: Mario Gabelli, GAMCO Investors, “We Have Accumulated Compounded Knowledge of Certain Industries Over An Extended Period Of Time”                 Guest: Mario Gabelli is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of GAMCO Investors, Inc., the firm he founded in 1977. A 1965 summa cum laude graduate of […]

The post Episode #327: Mario Gabelli, GAMCO Investors, “We Have Accumulated Compounded Knowledge of Certain Industries Over An Extended Period Of Time” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog.