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The Moment When 'Everything Solid Melts Into Air' Is Near

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

That the neofeudal lords and their lackeys offer the debt-serfs "choices" of forced labor would be comic if the results weren't so tragic.

We know we're close to the moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air when extraordinary breakdowns are treated as ordinary and the "news" quickly reverts to gossip. So over 4 million American workers up and quit every month, month after month after month, and the reaction is ho-hum, labor shortage, blah, blah, blah, toy shortage for Christmas, oh, the horror, blah, blah, blah.

These are large numbers. Over 10 million job openings and 6 million hires and 6 million "separations," i.e. layoffs and the 4.3 million voluntary quits.

The happy story promoted by the corporate media is that this enormous churn is the result of shiny, happy people moving up the work food chain to better paying jobs. We know we're close to the moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air when every breakdown is instantly reworked into a happy story in which everything is getting better every day, in every way.

The reality nobody in power wants to acknowledge, much less address, is that millions of workers are opting out or burning out and they're not coming back. Another happy story promoted by the corporate media is that once all the gummit freebies ended, the lazy no-good workforce would be forced to take whatever wretched job the billionaires need done at low pay and zero benefits. (But hey, you qualify for food stamps, so it's all good!)

A substantial share of the workforce has declared "up yours" and another share has been so burned out by overwork and constant pressure that they're done: they can no longer work at this pace and for that many hours.

This enrages the lackeys, toadies, apparatchiks and apologists of the billionaires: how dare you escape from forced labor! The whole economy is based on the bleak choice of take the job we offer or starve.

The "innovation" (pay attention, neofeudal lords) from SillyCon Valley is to offer an illusion of "choice" in this forced labor system: in the gig economy, you get to "choose" between Gulag Camp One (low pay, long hours, zero benefits and zero security) and Gulag Camp Two (low pay, long hours, zero benefits and zero security).

Wow! Who knew "choice" was so life-changing? In a similar fashion, when you can no longer afford rent, utilities, etc., then you get a "choice" of living in your car, if you have one, or fashioning a crate-tent "home" or taking over the ruined camper left by the guy who made the one-way trip to the morgue.

That the neofeudal lords and their lackeys offer the debt-serfs "choices" of forced labor would be comic if the results weren't so tragic. The neofeudal status quo is so busy chasing down escapees from the forced-work Gulags that it won't notice its Wile E. Coyote moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 11:15

WTI Slides After Biggest Crude Build Since March

Oil prices are higher this morning after a mixed picture from API (big crude build offset by big gasoline draw) and helped by comments from IEA that shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for crude

API

• Crude +5.213mm (+900k exp)

• Cushing -2.275mm

• Gasoline -4.575mm (+600k exp)

• Distillates -2.707mm (-1.1mm exp)

DOE

• Crude +6.008mm (+900k exp)

• Cushing -1.968mm

• Gasoline -1.958mm (+600k exp)

• Distillates -24k (-1.1mm exp)

Crude stocks rose by the most since March last week - the 3rd weekly build in a row - but the draw in gasoline and distillates was modest...

Source: Bloomberg

National crude inventories are now sitting at the highest since August.

US Crude production continued to rebound, almost back to pre-IDA levels...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI hovered around $81.20 ahead of the official DOE print but slid back below $81 on the big crude build...

Bloomberg's Michael Jeffers notes that retail fuel prices are at a seven-year high and the 3-2-1 crack is trading at levels normally seen in the summer during peak driving season. That’s probably one reason that refiners are running to close to 90% during a time of year when they usually shut for maintenance.

Diesel demand is highest it’s been since 2018 for this time of year. At the same time stockpiles are lower than usual ahead of winter due to a combination of trucking demand natural disasters that forced refineries to shut down for extended outages earlier this. More distillates are expected to be used for heating this winter due to surging natural gas prices. 

Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle notes that divergence in gasoline and diesel trends appears poised to extend in coming weeks, we believe, amid lingering energy-supply concerns in Europe and Asia, which may spur diesel-buying as an insurance policy. But port congestion in the U.S. and China are a headwind for diesel, as shipping demand is thwarted by impacts on trade. Ongoing consumer-price inflation may start to hurt gasoline demand, adding to the effects from an end to the busy summer season. Refinery maintenance may help balance supply, but we still expect to see some buildup in coming weeks, especially for gasoline.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 11:04

Watch: Fauci Claims No "True Basis" In Concerns Over Long-Term COVID Vax Side Effects

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

In another display of ignorance on the science, Anthony Fauci declared Wednesday that there are is no “true basis” for concerns over potential long term side effects of COVID vaccines, despite there being no long term studies to take data from.

While speaking on a virtual call in concert with CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky and U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, Fauci was asked by a caller if pilots have any ‘valid concerns’ after it was suggested that many are remaining unvaccinated to avoid potential long term side effects that may infringe on their ability to fly.

“Pilots at American and Southwest Airlines in particular are arguing that some pilots may be reluctant to get vaccinated because of potential of career-ending side effects,” the caller stated, adding...

“They’re concerned that there could be long-term side effects that could cause them to then lose their medical certification and also lose their jobs and their livelihoods. So is this a valid concern?”

Fauci responded:

“Well, right now on the basis of literally hundreds and hundreds of millions of vaccinations that we’ve had, the safety of these vaccines have been clearly established.”

Or perhaps there just isn’t any empirical long term data yet?

He continued, “The long-term effects that the people are apparently concerned about really have — I’m sure there is a very, very, very rare exception — but the long-term effects are really actually non-existent, in the sense of anything that has been a red flag on the part of the follow-up of these individuals.”

“So although one, I guess, can theoretically say, ‘I’m concerned about a long-term effect,’ the fact of the safety and the follow-up over a considerable period of time, over a year as so many individuals, we have not really seen that. So we don’t really see any true basis in that concern.”

Watch:

Dr. Anthony Fauci on concerns from airline pilots about COVID-19 vaccines: "We don't really see any true basis in that concern."

Full video here: https://t.co/zdtWUw9qQP pic.twitter.com/WYguF7PePe

— CSPAN (@cspan) October 13, 2021

Fauci’s comments come amid the ongoing saga of pilots resisting airlines attempting to institute vaccine mandates, with hundreds of flights still being cancelled as workers engage in apparent ‘sick-outs’.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 10:50

Furious Republicans Demand DoJ Stop "Interfering" With Texas Abortion Law

In response to a federal district judge's decision to file a temporary injunction to stop the new Texas abortion law from being enforced while the Biden Administration challenges it in the courts, a group of GOP-led states have written a letter to the DoJ demanding that the federal government immediately cease its interference in a state issue.

Here's the situation: the DoJ has asked a federal appeals court on Monday to halt Texas' abortion law (which has infuriated progressives and feminists, in particular) from being implemented, requesting that the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals deny a stay against an injunction blocking the law from going into effect. The move comes days after a three-judge panel on the 5th Circuit decided last week to temporarily reinstate the abortion law, placing an administrative stay on the lower court's injunction while it considers Texas' argument for why the law is doesn't break from precedent, or the Constitution. The original injunction was granted by a federal judge in Austin, who said the Texas law's restrictions on abortion were "contrived".

If the temporary injunction blocking enforcement of Texas's law is reinstated, the Republicans argue, the DoJ will have emboldened Democratic judges to file similar suits in the future. 18 states signed the letter included in a filing at the federal appeals court in New Orleans Wednesday.

According to the letter, the injunction “threatens to expose every State in the Union to suit by the federal government whenever the US Attorney General deems a state law to violate some constitutional right of someone, somewhere,” the states said.

"The Attorney General has no authority to act as a roving reviser of state law, challenging as unconstitutional any rule with which he disagrees."

The appeals court that blocked the injunction last week will hear arguments on Texas's bid for why it's law, which relies on a novel enforcement mechanism specifically to prevent public officials from being sued. Instead, any member of the public is entitled to bring a complaint against a woman believed to have had an abortion, and anybody who helped her (even the Uber driver who may have driven her to the clinic). All could be eligible for fines up to $10K.

In response, practically every clinic in Texas has shut down, while women in need of abortion "services" are quietly scrambling to nearby states with less-restrictive laws.

However, as GOP officials in several Republican-controlled states have already heavily suggested, Texas wasn't the first state to adopt a heartbeat bill, and it likely won't be the last, now that a strong conservative majority on the Supreme Court of the United States has arguably given the GOP the best opportunity in decades.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 10:33

Futures Fall On Poor China Econ Data Ahead Of Powell Townhall

US equity index futures fell and the dollar rose after the latest Chinese data missed expectations and confirmed a sharp slowdown in the 2nd largest economy, while the spread of the coronavirus delta variant sparked worries the global economic rebound is faltering. Investors also awaited a town hall by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday for clues on policy following a report from the WSJ that the Fed was weighing ending taper by mid-2022. As of 730am S&P eminis were down 12.50 or 0.28% to 4,450 after hitting an all time high on Friday; Dow Jones futures were down 101 points or 0.28% and Nasdaq futures were 42.75 lower. Commodities declined after Chinese retail sales and industrial output data showed activity slowed. Alibaba slid in premarket trading again after China’s state media criticized the online-game industry.

Energy firms Halliburton, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Schlumberger were down between 0.7% and 1.1%, tracking crude prices lower after data showed economic activity slowed in China. The rapid spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 has clouded market sentiment recently, with a survey last week showing U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early August to its lowest level in a decade. Coronavirus cases in the United States rose by at least 37,024 on Sunday to a total of 36.85 million, according to a Reuters tally.

Alibaba lost 1.9% in early New York trading. China should tighten regulations of online games to ensure they don’t misrepresent history, state media reported. Here are some of the other notabl U.S. movers today:

• Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise with Bitcoin edging higher and holding on to recent gains. Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 2.5% and Bit Digital (BTBT) jumps 5.8%, while Marathon Digital (MARA) climbs 3.1% and Coinbase (COIN) advances 2%.
• Enlivex Therapeutics (ENLV) soars 22% after obtaining authorization from Israel’s ministry of health to initiate a clinical trial evaluating the safety and effectiveness of its Allocetra therapy on Covid-19 patients.
• Sonos (SONO) shares rally 13% in premarket trading after the home speakers maker won the first round of its patent case against Google and with Jefferies upgrading the stock to buy.
• Chinese large cap stocks listed in the U.S. fall in premarket trading on Monday amid another round of criticism from state media over online games. Alibaba (BABA) falls 2.1% and JD.com (JD) slides 3.1%, while Baidu (BIDU) slips 1.8% and Didi Global (DID) loses 2.2%.

While the world is transfixed by the chaos in Afghanistan, the biggest economic report overnight came out of China, where factory output and retail sales growth slowed sharply and missed expectations in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted business operations, adding to signs the economic recovery is losing momentum. Industrial production in the world's second largest economy increased 6.4% year-on-year in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. Analysts had expected output to rise 7.8% after growing 8.3% in June. Retail sales increased 8.5% in July from a year ago, far lower than the forecast 11.5% rise and June's 12.1% uptick.

According to Goldman, "the weakness reflects a combination of factors including the impact of past policy tightening, slower export growth, and a series of idiosyncratic shocks in July including a typhoon and major flooding in Henan province and the onset of the widest Covid outbreak in the mainland since early 2020."

China's economy had rebounded to its pre-pandemic growth levels, but the expansion is losing steam as businesses grapple with higher costs and supply bottlenecks. New COVID-19 infections in July also led to fresh restrictions, disrupting the country's factory output already hit by severe weather this summer. Consumption, industrial production and investment could all slow further in August, analysts from Nomura said in a note, due to COVID-19 controls and tightening measures in the property sector and high-polluting industries. Production controls sent crude steel output to the lowest monthly level since April 2020 in July.

China has tightened social restrictions to fight its latest COVID-19 outbreak in several cities, hitting the services sector, especially travel and hospitality in the country. "Given China's 'zero tolerance' approach to Covid, future outbreaks will continue to pose significant risk to the outlook, even though around 60% of the population is now vaccinated," said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, in a note.

Meanwhile, the rapid spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 has clouded market sentiment recently, with a survey last week showing U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early August to its lowest level in a decade. Coronavirus cases in the United States rose by at least 37,024 on Sunday to a total of 36.85 million, according to a Reuters tally.

With Asian economies under stress from a resurgent pandemic and U.S. consumer sentiment near a decade low, investors are turning to signals from the Federal Reserve to sustain market momentum. A town hall by Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday may act as a precursor to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium in late August, providing clues on whether a recent string of strong U.S. data qualified as adequate progress for the central bank to consider tapering stimulus.

“Shares remain vulnerable to a short-term correction with possible triggers being the upswing in global coronavirus cases, the inflation scare and U.S. taper talk,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital.

In Europe, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index broke a 10-day streak of new record highs, with energy and commodity stocks the biggest drags on the gauge. Faurecia SE shares jumped 9.4% after the French auto supplier agreed to take over Hella GmbH in a deal that would create the world’s seventh-largest cap-parts maker. Mining stocks underperformed with metals prices coming under pressure from disappointing Chinese data. Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index down as much as 2.1% and hitting the lowest since July 28; Stoxx 600 benchmark down 0.6%. Heavyweights Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and BHP all lower and weighing on the index; steel company ArcelorMittal also falling. Antofagasta, Boliden and KGHM all lower as copper falls after Chinese industrial output data missed expectations. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Faurecia shares gain as much as 11% after it agreed to buy auto- parts supplier Hella. Analysts note a smaller-than-expected equity raise and strong cash optimization among the positive characteristics of the deal.
• Ultra Electronics shares jump as much as 8.2% after Cobham made a firm offer to acquire the U.K. defense firm in a deal valuing Ultra at around GBP2.57b.
• LondonMetric shares rise as much as 2.2% to a record high after the U.K. REIT sold a Primark distribution warehouse in Northamptonshire for GBP102m.
• Naspers shares slump as much as 7.2% in Johannesburg, while Prosus drops as much as 5.6% in Amsterdam, following a slide in Chinese tech giant Tencent’s shares amid fresh worries over a regulatory crackdown.
• Lufthansa shares fall as much as 4.9% after Germany’s WSF stabilization fund said it would start to sell up to a 5% stake in the airline starting today.
• Orsted shares delcline as much as 2.6%. The wind farm operator is cut to neutral at Goldman

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined on Monday, with investor sentiment dampened by concern over the coronavirus and China’s disappointing economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%, with Japan’s benchmarks leading the drop after the country extended states of emergency across six prefectures and amid an appreciating yen. The Hang Seng Tech Index slumped as much as 3% after China’s state media called for strengthened oversight of online games. Market sentiment continues to be weighed on by fear that the delta variant coronavirus spread will delay countries’ reopening plans. Figures released Monday by China’s government showed economic activity slowed more than expected in July, with fresh virus outbreaks adding risks to a recovery already hit by floods and faltering global demand. “The argument of ‘if people get vaccinated, everything will be alright’ is now wavering. If that falters, then it becomes harder to see when the economy might recover,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a fund manager at Saison Asset Management Co. Mainland shares ended lower after the data releases, that included retail sales and factory output, while Philippine stocks were Asia’s top performers after a recent rout and Malaysia’s key index declined as the country’s prime minister resigned. South Korea’s stock market was closed for a national holiday.

Japanese stocks also fell, with the Topix dropping by the most in eight weeks, as coronavirus infection rates in Tokyo worsened and after the yen strengthened against the dollar. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the benchmark, which fell 1.6%, with all but two of its 33 industry groups in the red. Fast Retailing and Recruit were the largest contributors to a 1.6% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen extended its gain against the dollar after jumping 0.7% Friday. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike warned Friday that the virus situation in the capital was at disaster level as cases jumped to a record of 5,773, more than quadrupling in just three weeks. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is poised to expand and extend for about another two weeks a virus state of emergency in Tokyo now set to expire at the end of August, the Sankei newspaper said. “Investors had expected that vaccines would help the outlook, but now things are uncertain,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a fund manager at Saison Asset Management Co. “Even with vaccines, people are restricted in their activities, and it’s clouding the outlook for investors,” he said, adding that the Afghanistan situation is a global risk-off factor. Data on Monday morning showed Japan’s economy returned to growth, with GDP expanding an annualized 1.3% from the prior quarter, as consumer and business spending proved resilient

India bucked the trend, with its key equity indexes advancing to fresh peaks, led by Reliance Industries Ltd., as Saudi Aramco closed in on an all-stock deal to acquire a stake in the Indian company’s oil refining and chemicals business. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to 55,582.58 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.2% to 16,563.05. Reliance Industries Ltd rose as much as 2.7% and was the biggest contributor to gains for both indexes, driving them to new highs. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex, 14 rose, while 16 fell. The Saudi Arabian firm is discussing the purchase of a roughly 20% stake in the Reliance unit for about $20 billion to $25 billion-worth of Aramco shares, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The quarterly earning season for companies ended on Friday, with 29 of the 50 Nifty companies missing estimates. Of the remaining, 19 exceeded consensus, while two reported results in line with expectations

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched higher and the yen and the Swiss franc led an advance among Group-of-10 peers while resource-based currencies such as the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone weakened. The Swiss National Bank appears to have intervened in the currency market to weaken the franc, with the amount of cash commercial lenders hold at the institution increasing by more than a billion francs for a second week running. Australia’s bonds gained and the Aussie dollar slid toward an almost one-month low after surging Covid cases led the NSW government to put the entire state into a weeklong lockdown; offshore sentiment was further weighed down by falling stocks and commodity prices. Japan’s sovereign bonds gained with the yen as a slump in U.S. consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected Chinese data clouded the global economic outlook. The euro inched lower to around $1.1780 after rallying to a one-week high Friday; options traders are betting volatility in the euro will stay low and ranges will tighten further into year-end even amid the possibility of monetary policy divergence materializing between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The pound traded little changed against the dollar and the euro ahead of inflation, labor market and retail sales releases later this week; leveraged funds increased bullish bets on the British currency, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week through Aug. 10

In rates, treasuries were little changed in early U.S. trading after erasing gains that sent yields to lowest levels in at least a week, tracking similar reversals in German and U.K. yields, and rebounding U.S. equity index futures. Yields were mixed across the curve, within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels, the 10-year was flat at 1.277% after erasing a 3.2bp drop to 1.245%, lowest since Aug. 6.  Coupon auctions ahead this week include $27b 20-year new issue Wednesday, $8b 30Y TIPS reopening Thursday.

Bitcoin traded around $47,400. Its second-day gain helped crypto stocks to rise in premarket deals. Riot Blockchain added 2.5%. Crude oil dropped for a third day as the resurgent pandemic hurt prospects for global demand.

There is little on today's calendar with the Empire Manufacturing Fed due at 830am, and the latest TIC data after the close.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,454.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 473.46
• MXAP down 0.7% to 198.50
• MXAPJ down 0.5% to 653.16
• Nikkei down 1.6% to 27,523.19
• Topix down 1.6% to 1,924.98
• Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 26,181.46
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,517.35
• Sensex up 0.3% to 55,617.10
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,582.46
• Kospi down 1.2% to 3,171.29
• Brent Futures down 1.5% to $69.53/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,776.21
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 92.56
• German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.470%
• Euro little changed at $1.1787

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• China’s economic activity slowed more than expected in July, with fresh virus outbreaks adding new risks to a recovery already hit by floods and faltering global demand.
• Italy and Spain are set to record the fastest pace of economic expansion this year in more than four decades, a strong rebound that will help the countries overcome last year’s deep recession. Spain’s gross domestic product will expand 6.2% in 2021, while Italy will record a rate of 5.6%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists
• Democrats are betting Republicans will blink and agree to raise the debt ceiling before it expires, a risky wager after a weeks-long standoff that threatens the health of the financial markets and continued U.S. government operations
• Bank of England policy makers are being overly-alarmist on their outlook for inflation, economists’ forecasts suggest, casting doubt on the need for a significant tightening in policy in the years ahead.
• Desperate scenes played out at Kabul’s international airport on Monday as thousands rushed to exit Afghanistan after Taliban fighters took control of the capital, with Reuters reporting at least five people were killed as people tried to forcibly enter planes leaving the country
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. says its decision to add the ESG tag to derivatives is part of a strategy to link sustainability to all forms of finance. The bank intends to replicate a novel cross-currency swap with Italian energy company Enel SpA, in which both parties need to meet specific ESG targets or face additional costs
• The thinking was that the pandemic would ebb and then mostly fade once a chunk of the population, possibly 60% to 70%, was vaccinated or had resistance through a previous infection. But new variants like delta, which are more transmissible and been shown to evade these protections in some cases, are moving the bar for herd immunity near impossibly high levels
• BNP Paribas requests traders to almost fully return to the office from October, Les Echos reported on Monday, without saying where it got the information
• Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and his cabinet resigned after more than 17 months in power, fueling a crisis of leadership in a country beset by a weakened economy and a surge in coronavirus cases

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly subdued and US equity futures also pulled back from record levels due to ongoing COVID concerns and as participants digested disappointing activity data from China, while weekend newsflow was dominated by Afghanistan-related headlines after the Taliban effectively took control of Kabul which prompted a mass exodus of foreigners and embassy personnel from the city. ASX 200 (-0.6%) was led lower by weakness in energy and financials with the worst performers having recently announced their full-year results, while sentiment was also pressured by the ongoing COVID-19 situation that has forced an extension of lockdowns across several state capitals. Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) was the worst performer amid detrimental currency flows and with Japan likely to extend the state of emergency to additional prefectures as soon as this week after COVID-19 cases recently topped the 20k level for the first time which overshadowed the better-than-expected GDP data. Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) traded mixed after Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data both missed expectations with the stats bureau noting that the recovery remains uneven citing sporadic virus outbreaks and natural disasters. In addition, the PBoC announced a CNY 600bln MLF operation and although this was lower than the CNY 700bln of maturing MLF loans, the central bank noted that the liquidity released in last month's RRR cut can partially repay the MLF, while the KOSPI remained closed in observance of Liberation Day. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the underperformance of Japanese stocks and similar gains in T-note futures as the US 10yr yield declined by around 5bps to breach the 1.2500% level. However, upside was capped for Japanese bonds after better-than-expected GDP data, while Economic Minister Nishimura stated that they are ready to take flexible action on the economy by tapping into JPY 4tln in reserves and will conduct flexible macroeconomic policy without hesitation to achieve sustained economic growth.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Stocks Listed in U.S. Drop Amid Online Games Criticism
• Asia Stocks Decline, Hurt by China Data Miss, Japan Selloff
• Afghanistan-Related Asian Stocks Drop as Taliban Retake Kabul
• China’s Faltering Economic Recovery Adds to Global Growth Risks

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.7%) have kicked the week off on the backfoot in the wake of lacklustre Chinese data and ongoing COVID concerns. Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data both missed expectations with the stats bureau noting that the recovery remains uneven, citing sporadic virus outbreaks and natural disasters. In Australia, sentiment was also pressured by the ongoing COVID-19 situation that has forced an extension of lockdowns across several state capitals, whilst Japan is likely to extend the state of emergency to additional prefectures as soon as this week. A lot of newsflow has centred around events in Afghanistan whereby the Taliban has taken control of Kabul which prompted a mass exodus of foreigners and embassy personnel from the city. However, the market implications at this stage remain unclear as the West ponders its response to events, if any. In terms of market commentary, JP Morgan notes, that Q1 and Q2 European reporting seasons have produced significant positive surprises, to the tune of 24% and 16%, respectively. Since January, consensus projected European EPS for the year has been revised higher by 16%, the strongest move on record. As such, JPM has set out new index targets, “looking for a further 4-7% upside into year end, with SX5E at 4500, on top of the already very strong 19% Eurozone equity return delivered ytd, ex dividends.” Sectors in Europe are mostly in the red with underperformance in Basic Resources, Travel & Leisure and Retail. Retail names are lagging post-Chinese Retail Sales with Kering (who account for nearly 30% of the Stoxx 600 retail index) lower to the tune of 1.8%, whilst LVMH is down 2.5% and Burberry sits at the foot of the FTSE 100 with losses of 2.6%. To the upside, Real Estate and Telecoms are the only sectors in positive territory. The notable individual outperformer is Faurecia (+8.7%) after agreeing to acquire the Hueck Family's controlling stake in Hella (-3.0%) in a deal valued at EUR 6.7bln. Elsewhere, Deutsche Lufthansa (-3.2%) are lower on the session after the German Economic Stabilisation Fund said it will be selling a maximum 5% stake in Lufthansa over the next few weeks, accounting for around 25% of its total stake.

Top European News

• Turmoil in Afghanistan Adds to Geopolitical Risks Facing Markets
• EU Gas Climbs to Record as Flows Via Key Russian Pipe Fall Again
• Faurecia Gains as $8 Billion Hella Deal Reduces Engine Exposure
• Danske Senior Dealer Joins Fixed Income at AkademikerPension

In FX, safe haven flows see the DXY and JPY retaining their underlying bids caught since the deterioration in the APAC mood. Sentiment weakened as Chinese retail sales and IP missed the mark – and thus backed the notion of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy’s growth momentum. Further, geopolitical developments in Afghanistan have dominated the news, but it is too early to assess any near-term market implications. Meanwhile, the Yen may also see some tailwinds from the above-forecast Q2 GDP growth metric, although it’s worth noting the data may be stale as the COVID situation in Japan has worsened since the Tokyo Olympics - which kicked off at the start of Q3. The DXY sees mild gains after finding a floor around Friday’s 92.470 low and looks ahead to the NY Fed Manufacturing – which would mark the first August data point, whilst traders also keep tomorrow’s Fed Chair Powell appearance and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes in mind. USD/JPY has declined further below 110.00 and whilst taking out its 100 DMA (109.35) to the downside. The pair eyes mild support at 109.19 (2nd Aug low) ahead of the psychological 109.00. The CNH meanwhile has remained somewhat stabilised after overnight choppiness on the back of further evidence pointing to slowing economic growth momentum, but some observers expect China to negate these effects with looser policy. However, CNH bulls felt some reprieve after the PBoC conducted the MLF at a maintained rate of 2.95%, which adds to the likelihood of the LPRs being maintained later this week. That being said, reports last week suggested that any form of easing will likely take place in the RRR and interest rate. USD/CNH resides under just 6.4800 within a 6.4750-4815 range, with the 200DMA.

• AUD, NZD, CAD - The non-US dollars are all softer with the common denominator being risk sentiment. The AUD is the marked underperformer amid the disappointing Chinese data overnight, coupled with the ever-deteriorating Aussie COVID picture. That being said, the AUD/USD currently remains within the ranges seen in the past two sessions, with the 0.7333 proving to be formidable support. Some have been flagging AUD/JPY – a key APAC risk gauge – as the cross inches closer to 80.00 to the downside, dipping below 80.25 from today’s 80.87 peak. NZD/USD meanwhile is in the red but losses are cushioned in anticipation of an RBNZ rate hike later this week. Thus, the AUD/NZD cross has dipped below 1.0450 and continues to print fresh YTD lows as the cross eyes 1.0418 (2nd Dec 2020 low) ahead of 1.0400. The Loonie remains on the backfoot amid headwinds from COVID-suppressed oil prices, whilst the weekend saw Canadian PM Trudeau calling a snap summer general election on September 20th, some two years ahead of schedule – although a rebound in polls could pave the way for Trudeau to secure a majority government from the current minority. USD/CAD inches higher towards 1.2550 and its 200 DMA at 1.2565 as the Loonie looks ahead to July inflation data this week.
• EUR, GBP - Both the Single Currency and Sterling trade flat vs the Buck and against each other. EUR/USD tested but failed to breach 1.1800 to the upside whilst GBP/USD recovered from a 1.3837 base and once again makes its way to the 50 DMA around 1.3882. Analysts at ING note of a downside bias for the EUR amid a lack of firm bullish catalysts, with ECB-Fed policy divergence and summer trading conditions posing tail risks for the EUR/USD pair – “we could see the pair moving back to the lower half of the 1.1700/1.1800 range”, says the Dutch Bank. GBP meanwhile eyes a plethora of data including retail sales, employment and inflation, with traders eyeing indications to back the BoE’s upbeat outlook. EUR/GBP remains flat on either side of 0.8500.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain subdued as the complex keeps an eye on the global COVID situation alongside the growth momentum slowdown experienced in the second-largest economy. Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan has grabbed all the headlines today as the Taliban overthrew the government, but from a market standpoint, the direct impact at the moment is too early to tell – but it’s worth keeping in mind that Russia, China and Iran have signalled an acceptance of the new government. Aside from this, traders will also be cognizant of the start of Hurricane season near the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), with Tropical Storm Fred set to make landfall around the Florida panhandle, whilst Grace reawakened to a Tropical Depression with the trajectory pointing towards the west of the GoM. WTI resides just north of USD 67/bbl after briefly losing the level (vs high 68.12/bbl), whilst Brent trades around USD 69.50/bbl (vs high USD 70.45/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold trades with modest losses around USD 1,775/oz, but in a USD 10/oz range as the yellow metal balances a firmer Buck and softer yields. Base metals meanwhile are mostly lower across the board, with LME copper back under USD 9,500/t as the overnight Chinese data backs the notion of growth momentum slowing in the world’s largest copper consumer.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Aug. Empire Manufacturing, est. 28.5, prior 43.0
• 4pm: June Total Net TIC Flows, prior $105.3b
• 4pm: June Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior -$30.2b

DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Having just got back from two weeks away, I’ll be taking up the EMR from Jim over the next two as he departs on his own break of rollercoaster rides and golf courses. Like Jim, we opted to remain in the UK this year given the travel restrictions and spent a week in Cornwall, actually within walking distance of the recent G7 summit in Carbis Bay, which the geek in me was very excited to see. However, I was sadly the victim of multiple seagull attacks, the worst of which saw them steal an entire scoop of ice cream and leave a scratch behind my ear. Thankfully, the pharmacist said this wasn’t going to cause an infection, but to add insult to injury, the seagulls made a decent attempt at taking the replacement scoop as well. It seems as though capitalist notions of private property are yet to reach them.

Markets have faced no such obstacles while I’ve been away, with global equities ascending to a series of fresh records as investors gear up for next week’s all-important Jackson Hole symposium. Indeed, Europe’s STOXX 600 is up for 10 days in a row now, marking its longest run of consecutive gains since 2006, while an 11th advance today would make it the longest run since 1999.

Over the weekend however, the main news was in the geopolitical sphere as the Taliban reached the Afghan capital of Kabul and President Ashraf Ghani left the country. This follows a 3-week offensive by the Taliban that’s seen a major redrawing of the balance of power within the country, which leaves the Taliban set to take control two decades after their removal following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. On Saturday, President Biden said in a statement that he was increasing the total number of US troops in support of the evacuation of US personnel and the Afghans who assisted them to 5,000, and on Sunday multiple press outlets reported a US defence official saying that a further 1,000 on top of that would also be sent in. However, Biden’s statement also reiterated that he “was the fourth President to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan” and that he “would not, and will not, pass this war onto a fifth.”

For Biden, the developments in Afghanistan have created some unwelcome headlines just as further progress was being made on his economic agenda, with the Senate passage of the infrastructure bill with bipartisan support last week. Nevertheless, there was some potentially significant news on Friday as 9 moderate House Democrats threatened to withhold support from the $3.5tn budget resolution (which includes much of Biden’s proposals on social programs and climate change), unless the infrastructure bill were passed by the House and signed into law first. This is the reverse of what those on the progressive wing have said, which is that they won’t support the infrastructure bill without the budget resolution, which poses difficulties for the Democrats since their narrow margin of control means they can only afford to lose 3 votes in the House from their own side. In turn, Speaker Pelosi said yesterday in a letter to Democratic colleagues that she had requested that the Rules Committee “explore the possibility of a rule that advances both the budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure package”, so potentially moving them forward simultaneously. Since the Democrats’ control of the Senate as well is reliant on Vice President Harris’ tie-breaking vote, the decisions of individual members in both chambers over the coming days could be crucial as to the overall amount of spending that’s passed.

Overnight in Asia, the main news has been the release of Chinese economic data for July, which came in below expectations across the board. Retail sales grew by just +8.5% yoy (vs. +10.9% expected) while industrial production growth similarly underwhelmed at +6.4% yoy (vs. +7.9% yoy expected). Furthermore, fixed asset investment was up +10.3% yoy in the first seven months of the year (vs. 11.3% yoy expected), and the unemployment rate ticked up to +5.1% (vs. +5.0% expected). This downturn in the data comes on the back of recent Covid outbreaks that have led to further lockdowns and restrictions, and as a reminder DB’s chief China economist downgraded our GDP forecast for China in a piece out on Friday (link here), with the latest projections now seeing year-on-year growth of +5.5% in Q3 and +4.5% in Q4.

Amidst the weak data out of China, rising geopolitical risks and the continued spread of the delta variant, Asian markets are mostly trading lower this morning with the Nikkei (-1.89%), Hang Seng (-0.79%), Kospi (-1.16%) and Asx (-0.39%) all losing ground. Chinese bourses have fared somewhat better however, with the CSI 300 (+0.23%), Shanghai Comp (+0.37%) and Shenzhen Comp (-0.15%) holding their ground thanks to support from an overnight operation by the PBoC that saw the central bank roll over much of its medium-term policy loans coming due. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are down -0.25% this morning while yields on 10y USTs are down -3.0bps to 1.247%. Meanwhile there was somewhat stronger data from Japan, where their preliminary Q2 GDP came in at an annualised rate of +1.3% qoq (vs. +0.5% qoq expected), rebounding from an upwardly revised up -3.7% qoq in the previous quarter.

Looking forward now, the events calendar is relatively quiet over the week ahead as markets await the Jackson Hole symposium next week and Fed Chair Powell’s speech there for any signs on how the Fed might begin to taper their asset purchases. However, we will get the release of the FOMC minutes from their meeting in late July, which our US economists expect will provide more insights into the technical discussions around tapering strategies, and potentially some further clues as to which data releases officials will be focusing on as they assess progress towards their goals. We’ll also hear from Chair Powell in a virtual town hall with educators and students tomorrow, but that hasn’t traditionally been a forum for market communications.

Staying on the US, this week’s data releases will feature an increasing amount of hard data for July, including retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and building permits. On the retail sales release, our economists are expecting that auto sales will weigh on the headline number, and see a -0.6% decline this month. But they’re expecting a more mixed view on the factory and housing data mixed, with the manufacturing releases still pointing to strong production, whilst the housing sector continues to normalise around pre-covid levels of activity.

Turning to inflation, the coming week’s data should also add some further details on global price pressures after the US headline CPI print remained at +5.4% in July. The UK’s CPI reading for July will be in focus on Wednesday, particularly after the last couple of releases surprised to the upside and the Bank of England said at their latest meeting that “some modest tightening of monetary policy … is likely to be necessary” in order to meet their inflation target. Our UK economist projects that CPI will fall to +2.4% in July (vs. +2.5% in June), but still sees it peaking at closer to 4% before settling back down to target later next year. Separately in the Euro Area, there’s the final CPI print for July on Wednesday as well, and on Friday we’ll get the German PPI release for July, where the Bloomberg consensus is looking for a further increase after June’s +8.5% reading that marked the fastest rise in producer prices since January 1982.

On the earnings front, it’s nearly the end of the current season now, with over 90% of the S&P 500 having reported. Nevertheless, we’ve still got a few highlights over the week ahead, with tomorrow seeing reports from Walmart, Home Depot, BHP, and Agilent Technologies, before Wednesday sees releases from Tencent, Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, and Target. Towards the end of the week, there’s also Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, Ross Stores, and Adyen on Thursday, before Friday sees Deere & Co release.

The pandemic will remain in focus over the week ahead, particularly given that cases have been rising at the global level for 8 consecutive weeks now, according to John Hopkins University data. In the US, the New York Times reported over the weekend that the Biden administration was drawing up a plan to offer booster shots as early as the autumn, with the story saying that priority would be given to care home residents, healthcare workers and the elderly. Meanwhile from today in England, those who’ve been fully vaccinated for two weeks won’t be required to self-isolate if they’ve been in contact with someone who’s tested positive for Covid.

Back to last week now, and global equity markets continued to inch up to new highs even as the daily moves became smaller. The S&P 500 rose +0.71% on the week (+0.16% Friday) with cyclicals such as banks (+2.15%) continuing to outperform, unlike technology and growth stocks as the NASDAQ lost ground (-0.09%) to finish just off the index’s record high. The S&P 500 finished at yet another record, its 48th this year, which is the most at this point of the year since 1995, whilst the VIX index of volatility fell -0.7pts to 15.5, having only closed lower on one occasion since the pandemic began. Amidst the cyclical outperformance, European equities rose to their own record close on Friday – its tenth in a row – as the STOXX 600 ended the week (+1.25%) higher.

Sovereign bonds gained slightly last week with US 10yr Treasuries rallying on the week following a -8.2bps decline in yields Friday that took the overall week’s move to a -2.0bps drop, leaving yields at 1.277%. Friday’s gains for Treasuries were due to the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey falling -11.0pts to 70.2 (81.2 expected), the lowest reading since December 2011 as inflation worries and concerns of the delta variant weighed on consumers. European sovereign bonds similarly gained on a weekly basis, with yields on 10yr bunds just -0.7bps lower whilst those OATs (-1.0bps), BTPs (-2.2bps) and gilts (-3.8bps) also fell.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 07:55

Tesla Shares Sink After NHTSA Announces Formal Investigation Into Autopilot For All Models From 2014 To 2021

After what has felt like eons of inaction while Teslas all over the country unintendedly accelerate into inanimate objects, it looks like regulators in the United States have finally come to their senses.

This morning it was announced that the U.S. had opened a formal investigation into the company's Autopilot feature, according to Bloomberg.

*U.S. OPENS FORMAL INVESTIGATION OF TESLA AUTOPILOT: AP

*TESLA FALLS TO PREMARKET LOW ON AUTOPILOT INVESTIGATION REPORT

*U.S. NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION OPENS PROBE OF TESLA AUTOPILOT IN 2014-2021 MODELS Y, X, S, AND 3 -- AGENCY

Tesla shares quickly sunk toward $700, down about 2%, in pre-market trading.  

The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it is opening a probe into Tesla's Model X, S and 3 for model years 2014-2021. The broad range of models and model years means that this could be the broad investigation that skeptics have been requesting for years. 

The NHTSA says the investigation will assess technologies, methods "used to monitor, assist, and enforce the driver's engagement" during autopilot operation, according to Bloomberg.

The investigation looks to finally have been prompted by Teslas on various highways slamming into parked emergency vehicles - many cases of which we have highlighted here on Zero Hedge. Since January 2018, the NHTSA says it has identified 11 crashes where Tesla models have  "Have encountered first responder scenes and subsequently struck one or more vehicles involved with those scenes"

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 07:54

Texas Supreme Court Temporarily Blocks Local Mask Mandates

Authored by Isabel van brugen via The Epoch Times,

The Texas Supreme Court on Sunday granted an emergency stay to Gov. Greg Abbott over his ban on mask mandates.

It overrides lower court rulings that allowed Dallas and Bexar counties to temporarily enable the mask mandate locally, despite the Republican governor’s order that barred government entities and officials from doing so.

Abbott said at the time that Texans, not government, should decide their best health practices.

Local officials in Dallas and Bexar counties, including San Antonio, meanwhile cited strains on hospitals amid a surge in cases linked to the Delta COVID-19 variant, as justifications for keeping the mask requirements in place.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said requiring face masks would help to curb the transmission of COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

The emergency stay is temporary, and the case will continue to be heard in lower courts. A hearing for Bexar County has been scheduled on Monday, and for Dallas County, a hearing has been set for Aug. 24.

“Today, SCOTEX has ordered Dallas Co and Dallas ISD to follow Exec. Order GA-38. Local mask mandates are illegal under GA-38,” state Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement on Twitter following Sunday’s ruling. “Let this ruling serve as a reminder to all ISDs and local officials that the Governor’s order stands.”

Meanwhile, local officials from the Dallas Independent School District and City of San Antonio and Bexar County have said that they plan to continue with mask mandates, reported the Texas Tribune.

“The Tex Supreme Court did not strike down my face mask order,” Jenkins said in a Twitter post.

“Rather they removed the stay on the GA 38. Unless I receive a ruling requiring otherwise, I will amend my order to remove the possibility of fines on non-compliant businesses but otherwise leave the order in effect.”

The City of San Antonio separately said in a statement that the ruling did not stop it from moving forward with presenting its case to the court on Monday, and that its mask mandate remains in effect.

“The City of San Antonio and Bexar County’s response to the Texas Supreme Court continues to emphasize that the governor cannot use his emergency powers to suspend laws that provide local entities the needed flexibility to act in an emergency,” City Attorney Andy Segovia said in a statement.

Last week, Paxton in a statement called government officials reinstating mask mandates and the judges who granted their temporary restraining orders against the Abbott’s mask ban “attention-grabbing judges” and “activist characters.”

“This isn’t the first time we have dealt with activist characters. It’s deja vu all over again,” Paxton said.

“Attention-grabbing judges and mayors have defied executive orders before, when the pandemic first started, and the courts ruled on our side—the law. I’m confident the outcomes to any suits will side with liberty and individual choice, not mandates and government overreach.”

Abbott and Paxton said in a joint statement that “any school district, public university, or local government official that decides to defy the order will be taken to court.”

The pair argued that the governor has the authority to decide how Texas responds to state emergencies under the Texas Disaster Act.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Abbott’s office for comment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 07:40

Why Big Government Statists Despise Gold

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

Did you get a 5.4 percent raise this year?

If you answered no, then your income is being systematically diminished by the federal government’s coordinated policies of dollar debasement.

You see, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices increased 5.4 percent over the last 12 months.  So if your income didn’t increase by a commensurate 5.4 percent, then you are earning less than you were just one year ago.

The fact is price inflation acts as a hidden tax.  It’s the government’s underhanded way to increase spending without overtly increasing taxes.  Yet the tax still takes place, as the dollars in your biweekly paycheck become worth less and less.

The primary culprit of rising prices is the over issuance of federal reserve notes by the Treasury via deficit spending.  This debt based money enters the economy through government transfer payments and other spending programs.  There, it competes with the existing stock of money to buy goods and services.  Prices rise, accordingly.

Through the first 10 months of Washington’s fiscal year, which ends on September 30, the federal government has run a budget deficit of 2.54 trillion.  Of this, $800 billion – or about a third – of this debt was purchased by the Federal Reserve with credit created from this air.  If you recall, since July 2020, the Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasuries per month.

The failure of these dollar debasement policies to support a balanced and healthy economy is grossly evident.  Asset prices have been inflating for over a decade.  At the same time, wages have generally stagnated.  This has resulted in a massive wealth gap.

Still, for the control freak central planners, operating within the monetary constraints of a stable money supply and the fiscal constraints of a balanced budget are out of the question…

Out of Control Finances

To somehow correct this disparity, the federal government is proposing to go on another spending boom.  Just this week, for instance,  the Senate agreed on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.  The bill approves $550 billion in new infrastructure spending, which is in addition to $450 billion that has already been approved.

What’s in it?  We don’t know.  But 2,700 pages of Congressional quid pro quo is surly full of abject waste.  But that’s not all…

Up next is the $3.5 trillion human infrastructure social spending bonanza.  Perhaps the kabuki theatre of the approaching debt ceiling faceoff will pare back the package a slight bit.  But nothing on the order that any reasonable person would consider responsible.

Obviously, Washington doesn’t draw enough in tax receipts to cover this new spending.  And the new debt that will be added to the already massive $28.6 trillion national debt is far too big to be honestly repaid.  Thus it will be paid via the printing press; that is, through the stealth default of dollar debasement.

Curiously, in this environment of rising consumer prices, massive deficits, and immense money supply expansion, the dollar, in relation to foreign currencies and gold and silver, is rising.

One year ago, an ounce of gold cost over $2,000 per ounce.  Now it’s about $1,755.  And year to date, the dollar, as measured by the dollar index, has appreciated 3.41 percent.

What gives?

If you hold physical gold and silver as a form of wealth insurance, which you should, don’t pay attention to the ups and downs of gold’s price movements.  With the outright reckless abandoned of the spendthrift politicians in Congress, gold’s price in dollar terms is guaranteed to rise over the next decade.  You can count on it.

Gold will ultimately shine.  Not because of its luster.  But, rather, out of necessity.

Unlike gold, which has no debt obligation or counterparty risk, dollars – and dollar based debt instruments, like bonds – can expire worthless when their promissory obligation is defaulted on.  Alternatively, they can be inflated to nothing when a desperate Federal Reserve, in concert with an overpromised Treasury, moves to dropping suitcases of money from helicopters over major urban centers.

Without question, government finances are completely out of control.  How we got to this disagreeable place is a long story.  But one of the major milestones in this misadventure was reached nearly 50 years ago.  We’d be remiss not to mention it…

Why Big Government Statists Despise Gold

Gold to paper currency conversion once exacted limits upon the public purse.  The Treasury, in concert with the Federal Reserve, could not issue unlimited debt based money.  But that was before the U.S. severed the dollar’s relationship to gold and commenced the dollar reserve standard.

Prior to 1971, as determined by the Bretton Woods international monetary system, which was agreed to in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in July 1944, a foreign bank could exchange $35 with the U.S. Treasury for one troy ounce of gold.  After the U.S. reneged on this established exchange rate, when foreign banks handed the U.S. Treasury $35, they received $35 in exchange.

The dirty deed was done by President Nixon on August 15, 1971 – nearly 50 years ago.

To be fair, Nixon was merely playing the hand he’d been dealt.  And thanks to LBJ’s guns and butter program of the 1960s, the dollar had been exceedingly debased from its $35 conversion rate.  Johnson attempted a Band-Aid fix in 1968 to suppress the price of gold with a two-tier system of official exchange and open market transaction.  This intervention was quickly exposed to be at odds with reality.

The lie that $35 dollars were equal to one ounce of gold could no longer stand up.  The weight of reality, and U.S. inflation of the money supply, had overwhelmed it.

However, the lies didn’t stop with the end of the Bretton Woods international monetary system.  In fact, the end of Bretton Woods commenced with a lie…

Specifically, Nixon announced that he would “temporarily” suspend the convertibility of the dollar into gold.  This temporary measure has proved to be permanent.  You can witness Nixon’s announcement via this video link.

Quite frankly, you cannot watch this video often enough.  For it provides a perfect example of a government official lying as soon as he opens his mouth…and with every single sentence uttered.  It also imparts a disturbing amount of economic illiteracy.

At the end of the day, big government statists despise gold backed money because it limits the scope and scale of their reach.  Alas, as the lowlifes in Washington destroy the dollar, new crackpot schemes will be rolled out.  This will likely be in the form of government issued digital dollars that track and influence when and how you spend your money.

Like Nixon reneging on Bretton Woods nearly 50 years ago, these will be desperate measures of a desperate political class.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 06:30

"It Is More Relaxed Than I Anticipated" - Bankers Abandon Suits And Ties Amid Post-COVID Return To Office

Last week, the NYT declared that America's top graduates no longer see entry level Wall Street jobs as a top choice careers.

Now, America's paper of record is documenting an important sartorial shift: the suit and tie once considered the de facto Wall Street uniform (suits for men and heels-and-a-dress for women) has been abandoned in favor of far more comfortable outfits, expanding "casual Friday" to every day of the week.

Source: NYT

Accompanied by a lengthy photo-essay documenting the change, the NYT reports that as more Wall Street bankers return to the office (while JPM and Goldman ordered bankers to report back months ago, other banks are targeting a post-Labor Day return for all staff, but many workers from a range of firms have been reporting back to the office for months) even senior bankers are ditching ties, and embracing work gear made by Lululemon, Untucked and other manufacturers of more liberating business attire.

The changes are superficial, but they hint at a bigger cultural shift in an industry where well-cut suits and wingtips once symbolized swagger, memorialized in popular culture by Gordon Gekko in the movie “Wall Street” and Patrick Bateman in the film adaptation of Bret Easton Ellis’s novel “American Psycho.” Even as many corporate workplaces around the country relaxed their dress codes in recent years, Wall Street remained mostly buttoned up.

Consider the informal new dress code a "consolation prize" for staff frustrated about their return to the office.

Like so much else, that changed in the pandemic. Big banking firms, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, have realized that their employees are loath to reach for their corporate attire, after more than a year of working from home dressed mainly in loungewear, or Zoom-appropriate shirts on top and sweatpants below. As banks get their workers back to their desks — even as some other companies have paused such plans — senior executives are easing up on dress codes as a concession to their weary staffs.

One Goldman "legal analyst" said the new dress code is even more relaxed than they had expected.

"It’s a little bit more relaxed than what I anticipated," said Melissa Cortes, a legal analyst who recently joined Goldman. "I’m wearing sneakers right now, and people are wearing jeans with blazers or shirts,"  said Ms. Cortes, who sported a white jacket, black wide-leg trousers and white sneakers on Wednesday.

While the most egregious style violations (jeans on the trading floor) might only be tolerated until the summer heat subsides (and more clients start returning to banks' offices for client meetings), ties will likely remain a relic.

Although banks haven’t sent out formal memos, their informal message is that returning employees should feel free to dress appropriately for the occasion — and that during a summer with few in-person client meetings, more relaxed attire is permissible. Jeans have even shown up on trading floors, and bankers have a wealth of opportunities to spring a familiar workplace joke: What’s with the tie? Got a job interview?

No official memos have been sent on the subject. But the NYT says JPM CEO Jamie Dimon helped signal that management approved of the change when he wore a black polo shirt during a TV interview.

JPMorgan’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, recently wore a black polo shirt for a TV interview; Goldman’s boss, David Solomon, D.J.s in T-shirts on weekends; and Rich Handler, the head of Jefferies, posted a photo of himself sporting a henley tee on Twitter. At an event welcoming employees back to the office in July, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser — the only female boss of a major Wall Street bank — kept her signature look: a jewel-toned dress.

The story even included the following quote from "avowed sneakerhead" John Williams, Governor of the New York Fed, who formerly ran the Fed bank in San Francisco (a decidedly more progressive environment, particularly when it comes to workplace attire).

Williams said that lax dress codes are part of valuing "individuality" and "diversity" in the workplace.

John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and an avowed sneakerhead, said the Fed wanted people to bring their “authentic self” to work because personal style was an important part of valuing all forms of individuality and diversity.

He said he was looking forward to wearing new pairs from his sneaker collection in the office. “When people can be themselves, they do their best work,” he said.

In a way, the trend started before the pandemic: Goldman declared suits and ties optional back in 2019. But most employees were too timid to ditch their ties, given that Wall Street's pecking order has been, in a way, defined by dress since time immemorial.

But in banking, the strict hierarchies were embedded in unwritten fashion rules. Colleagues would ridicule those wearing outfits considered too flashy or too shabby for the wearer’s place in the corporate food chain. Superiors were style guides, but wearing something swankier than one’s boss was considered a faux pas. An expensive watch could be seen as a mark of success, an obnoxious flex, or both.

[...]

"What’s amazing is these guys were wearing suits in the middle of summer, walking the streets of New York, coming off the train" before the pandemic, Mr. Riccobono said.

"It took corona for the guys who never wore anything but suits to realize, 'Wait a second.'"

Perhaps, in the not-too-distant future, wearing one's lulus to work will be a hallmark of top executives, a reflection of the comfort they feel as masters of the universe. As one purveyor of work-leisure attire points out:

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 05:45

Shocking & Dehumanizing Discrimination Against The Unvaxx'd Is About To Make Life Very Difficult

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper,

All over the world, the hot-button subject of the moment is the Covid vaccination. Many governments discuss making it mandatory, a terrifying concept for people who believe that the vaccine is unsafe. But perhaps even more appalling are the shocking things that people are saying about those who are unvaccinated.

This article isn’t about whether the vaccine is safe or not. I’m not urging anyone to get the vaccine, nor am I urging anyone to avoid it. I believe that my health decisions are my choice, and yours are your choice.

I hope that when you read these comments, whatever side of the debate you are on, you stop and think about your humanity. If this were done to any other group of people, it would be considered hate speech. Because the mainstream media and the narrative are tightly controlled right now, this isn’t just thought of as acceptable but a signal of superior virtue.

The danger of “othering”

We already talked about how people would be “encouraged” to get the vaccine through a loss of liberty “privileges.” By now, those eager to get the vaccine have done so. Also, those with valid reasons (like loss of income) have also gotten the jab. Therefore, holdouts who remain adamant they won’t get the vaccine are now being exposed to a whole new level of “encouragement” via extreme social pressure.

A phenomenon called “othering” is used in both the violence dynamics world and in brainwashing. Othering is when a person determines that another person is unworthy, threatening, or all-around inadequate and hardly even the same species.

Othering is a process whereby a group of people is made to seem fundamentally different, even to the point of making that group seem less than human. This process can trigger instinctive emotional reactions towards members of that group. In many instances, othering has been used to degrade, isolate, and render possible a group’s discrimination, abuse, or persecution. (source)

Those who don’t learn from history…

It has happened many times in history: when human beings were used as slaves and property, when human beings were the subject of horrific experiments when the media and people in power deliberately manipulated human beings to believe that other humans weren’t like them, and therefore, it was permissible to mistreat or abuse them.

As the saying goes, those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And repeat it, they are. I think, regardless of our stance, we can all agree that fervently wishing for bad things to happen to those who believe differently and dehumanizing them for their beliefs is pretty awful.

People have come out with appalling suggestions for those who aren’t vaccinated.

Don Lemon of CNN believes the unvaccinated should not be allowed to buy food or work. Does this mean he believes that they should starve to death?

If you had any doubt, Lemon also thinks people who are unvaccinated are idiots.

“How many people have to die,” Lemon asked, saying “if behavior is idiotic and nonsensical, I think that you need to tell people that their behavior is idiotic and nonsensical.” (source)

CNN medical analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner says that unvaccinated people shouldn’t go to bars and restaurants. A doctor pondered the ethics of whether he could refuse to see unvaccinated patients in The New York Times.

It’s becoming popular to blame the unvaccinated for all future cases of Covid

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s Big Kahuna of Covid, blames those not vaccinated for a new spike in cases.

“We have 100 million people in this country … who are eligible to be vaccinated, who are not vaccinated,” Fauci said in an interview with “Face the Nation.”

“We’ve really got to get those people to change their minds, make it easy for them, convince them, do something to get them to be vaccinated because they are the ones that are propagating this outbreak.” (source)

Columnist Leana Wen of Washington Post believes the unvaccinated are dishonorable. Wen called upon the CDC to mandate masks for everyone because of it.

We need a return to indoor mask mandates not because the vaccinated are suddenly a problem, but because we don’t trust the unvaccinated to do the right thing voluntarily. It’s not a commentary about the effectiveness of the vaccine or even the trickiness of the delta variant, but rather about the failure of unvaccinated Americans to fulfill their societal obligation to act in the interest of everyone’s health.

When the CDC issued its mask guidance two months ago, it got the science right but got the policy and communication wrong. And it has happened again. The Biden administration should clarify that the backsliding of the United States’ pandemic progress necessitated the return of indoor masking. This has happened because of those who choose to remain unvaccinated, and the vaccinated are now paying the price. (source)

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey wants everyone to blame the unvaccinated for any cases of Covid that happen to occur.

“Folks are supposed to have common sense. But it’s time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks, not the regular folks. It’s the unvaccinated folks that are letting us down,” Ivey told reporters in Birmingham. (source)

That’ll really be helpful if someone unhinged loses a loved one to Covid and decides to seek vengeance on some “unvaccinated folk.” After all, the governor said it was their fault.

How far should “blame” be allowed to go?

Speaking of which, Nick Cohen of The Guardian said that it was only a matter of time before “we turn on the unvaccinated.”

The vindictive will start to describe Covid as a sickness of choice. Its victims will be victims of their own stupidity. They might have accepted vaccination. They might have protected themselves and others if, as seems likely, vaccines limit infections.

Rational people will ask why they should continue to accept restrictions on their freedoms because of ignorant delusions. Employers will demand to know what possible argument there is against allowing the owners of pubs, airlines, restaurants, hotels or holiday homes to demand proof of protection when immunity passports might save their business. To make it personal, how would you feel come the autumn if someone you love contracted cancer and the NHS delayed treatment because it had to look after needlessly ill Covid patients? (source)

Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, says that unvaccinated people are “variant factories.”

People want to impose financial penalties

Andy Slavitt, a former medical advisor for President Biden, believes that anyone unvaccinated should be required to be tested daily at their own expense until they finally give in.

“Look, if people say they don’t want to be vaccinated, which some people might say, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to say that’s fine,” Slavitt told Anderson Cooper. “We want you to show up every morning an hour before work and get a negative test. Maybe even at your own expense.”

Slavitt continued, “Until the point where people will say, you know what? It makes more sense to actually get vaccinated. If you give people that option, I think you’re going to see more and more people take the option to get vaccinated.” (source)

Some employers are docking peoples’ paychecks, according to Forbes.

…But the carrot approach is about to be joined by a stick that could cost employees up to $50 a month, according to Mercer, the large employee benefits consultancy that works with thousands of employers around the world.

“Employers have tried encouraging employees to get vaccinated through offering incentives like paid time off and cash, but with the Delta variant driving up infections and hospitalizations throughout the country – at the same time that vaccination rates have stalled – we have received inquiries from at least 20 employers over the past few weeks who are giving consideration to adding health coverage surcharges for the unvaccinated as a way to drive up vaccination rates in their workforce,” said Wade Symons, Mercer’s regulatory resources group leader.  (source)

Wesleyan College in West Virginia is charging an even more outrageous amount.

The college recently released it’s [sic] campus arrival guidance for the fall. It states that students who aren’t vaccinated will be charged a non-refundable $750 COVID fee for the Fall 2021 semester. It also states that students who get COVID-19 and are unable to quarantine off campus will be charged $250 to finish their quarantine on campus. (source)

And, in the UK…

Sanctimonious pundit Piers Morgan of England tweeted that people who don’t get the vaccine should be denied medical care.

“Those who refuse to be vaccinated, with no medical reason not to, should be refused NHS care if they then catch covid. I’m hearing of anti-vaxxers using up ICU beds in London at vast expense to the taxpayer. Let them pay for their own stupidity & selfishness.”

Those who refuse to be vaccinated, with no medical reason not to, should be refused NHS care if they then catch covid. I’m hearing of anti-vaxxers using up ICU beds in London at vast expense to the taxpayer. Let them pay for their own stupidity & selfishness.

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) July 27, 2021

Umm…considering that the UK has government healthcare – it’s already at their own expense, Piers.

They want to literally ruin the lives of the unvaccinated.

The only reason employers cannot (yet) legally force people to be vaccinated as a term of employment is that none of the vaccines have gained more than temporary FDA approval. None of them. Once the vaccines are FDA-approved, you can bet your sweet bootie it will be a requirement in many workplaces.

Pam Keith, an attorney from Florida suggests that the unvaccinated be denied access to any federal benefits…including things they’ve paid into their entire working lives like Social Security.

“Here’s a good way to move people into getting vaccinated: Condition all federal benefits on proof of vaccination. That includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, military pensions, VA benefits, fed subsidized housing… ALL OF IT! I bet THAT will move things along.”

Here’s a good way to move people into getting vaccinated:

Condition all federal benefits on proof of vaccination.

That includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, military pensions, VA benefits, fed subsidized housing… ALL OF IT!

I bet THAT will move things along.

— Pam Keith, Esq. (@PamKeithFL) July 31, 2021 Wow. What a lovely lady.

Other “tolerant” people chimed in eagerly with replies containing all sorts of other ideas for punishing the unvaccinated:

• Or even better, deny any Medicare, Medicaid, or private insurance coverage for Covid treatments or meds for unvaccinated. Set a date, say 9/11/21, for vaccination coverage or no insurance. (source)

• That’s a great idea! Also, add employment, suspension of gun and driving licenses, access to loans. Sporting events, dining out concerts should also require proof of vaccine. It will not be popular, but it is the only way to get people vaccinated. (source)

• I still love the idea that every unvaxed person that gets the disease is held personally financially responsible for all testing & if they contract Covid. Not private insurance or Medicare/Medicaid. Only excuse: documented allergy to vaccines/components. (source)

• How about if all the health insurance companies just said we’ll raise your premiums by, say, $5000/year for each unvaccinated adult on a policy? The chances of getting sick if someone is unvaccinated are much greater than those that are. Make it a financial decision. (source)

• I’d rather see their health care suspended for all covid-related treatments. (source)

What a bunch of stellar human beings. Imagine walking around thinking these things are justified. Imagine having that much hatred and disdain for those who don’t share your opinion.

What are your thoughts?

Seeing our country at each other’s throats yet again is heartbreaking. The rabid contempt for those who think differently can lead nowhere good.

*  *  *

Author of Be Ready for Anything and The Prepper’s Workbook

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 05:00

Watch: 100s Of US Citizens Scramble Aboard C-17 As Taliban Ready To Declare "Islamic Emirate Of Afghanistan"

Update (1310ET): The situation in Kabul (well all of Afghanistan) has gone from bad to worst case scenario as a Taliban official says they will soon declare the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from the presidential palace in Kabul, the Associated Press reported, after reports of the insurgents entering the premises and taking control of it

The level of mismanagement is astonishing. With no military background, I could have told you to 1) Ship all military equipment home, 2) Establish a plan to get US civilians & embassy members out in advance & 3) Offer asylum to all of the natives who assisted us during that time.

— Political Prostitution (@PoliticalPol) August 15, 2021

 As this is unfolding, 100s of US citizens are scrambling aboard C-17s as the Biden admin evacuates the country...

This is happening in Kabul right now.

Biden has allowed the Taliban to regain control.

Now civilians are fleeing the country.

Watch as they stampede onto an evacuation flight.

Biden did this. pic.twitter.com/GDdNDNjGPQ

— Benny (@bennyjohnson) August 15, 2021

We give the last word for this latest update to FT op-ed writer Gideon Rachman who presciently notes: 

If Donald Trump were presiding over the debacle in Afghanistan, the US foreign policy establishment would be loudly condemning the irresponsibility and immorality of American strategy. Since it is Joe Biden in the White House there is instead, largely, an embarrassed silence.

One thing of note - which we are sure Fauci and Biden will quickly clamp down on - none of the evacuees appear to be wearing masks!!

*  *  *

Update (1200ET): The Taliban are now in charge.

• TALIBAN FIGHTERS ENTER AFGHAN PRESIDENTIAL PALACE - TWO SENIOR TALIBAN COMMANDERS IN KABUL
• TALIBAN SAYS THEY HAVE CONTROL OF PRESIDENTIAL PALACE: REUTERS

Meanwhile the US embassy in Kabul is also about to fall to the Taliban who are set to return to power after 20 years...

• U.S. EMBASSY IN AFGHANISTAN SAYS REPORTS OF KABUL AIRPORT TAKING FIRE, INSTRUCTS U.S. CITIZENS TO SHELTER IN PLACE

Security Alert - U. S. Embassy Kabul, Afghanistan (August 15, 2021) 

Location: Kabul

Event: The security situation in Kabul is changing quickly and the situation at the airport is deteriorating rapidly. There are reports of the airport taking fire and we are instructing U.S. citizens to shelter in place. The U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan has suspended consular operations effective immediately. Do not come to the Embassy or airport at this time.

U.S. citizens needing assistance in departing the country should register for any option that might be identified to return to the United States, by completing this Repatriation Assistance Request for each traveler in their group. Spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens in Afghanistan who are awaiting immigrant visas should also complete this form if they wish to depart. Please do so as soon as possible. You must complete this form even if you've previously submitted your information to the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

Do not call the U.S. Embassy in Kabul for details or updates about the flight. This form is the only way to communicate interest in flight options.

... having retaken Kabul in less than 8 hours.

The Taliban conquered Kabul in less than 8hours. https://t.co/8Y2R2FY3el

— Anna Ahronheim (@AAhronheim) August 15, 2021

Are we about to have another Libya on our hands, with one or more embassy staffers about to die as Taliban hostages?

potential hostages all over the place.... https://t.co/Pk4AlZv6Od

— NEWS MAKER (@NEWS_MAKER) August 15, 2021

NBC is reporting that the US Ambassador has left the embassy. He and the flag are at the airport. And perhaps even more notably, NBC News appears to be turning against the Biden admin...

More on intel failure. How did the US get duped into thinking there was ever a peace process with the Taliban? Outfoxed by the Taliban? I’d say that’s embarrassing but shameful is closer

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) August 15, 2021

Meanwhile, according to the AP, a Taliban official says they will soon declare the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from the presidential palace in Kabul.

BREAKING: The Taliban will soon declare the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from the presidential palace in Kabul, an official for the militant group says. That was the name of the country under the Taliban government ousted by U.S.-led forces in 2001. https://t.co/c3qO1s3vMY

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 15, 2021

And as Afghanistan falls, expect much more humiliation for SecState Blinken and Joe Biden in the coming days and years.

On #SundayTODAY: @RichardEngel is in Kabul, Afghanistan, with the latest on the Taliban’s advance as U.S. troops race to get embassy workers out. pic.twitter.com/2YSPqtUERD

— TODAY (@TODAYshow) August 15, 2021

* * *

Update (1005ET): "Run Away!"

Reuters is reporting that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has fled the country as the Taliban enter the capital Kabul. Ghani is reportedly in Tajikistan.

A SENIOR INTERIOR MINISTRY OFFICIAL SAYS AFGHANISTAN'S ASHRAF GHANI HAS LEFT FOR TAJIKISTAN

— Guy Faulconbridge (@GuyReuters) August 15, 2021

The president left the country accompanied by his “close aides,” TOLO, an Afghan news channel, reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

A source told Russia’s RIA-Novosti news agency that Ghani had fled to Tajikistan and would soon travel from there to a third country.

The Taliban is claiming it has engaged in talks with the government about a “peaceful surrender” of the city to the group.

“Until the completion of the transition process, the responsibility for the security of Kabul is with the other side [the Afghan government],” the Taliban wrote in a statement posted online.

Afghanistan’s acting interior minister, Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal, said that a transfer of power will happen peacefully, while security forces will remain in the streets to “ensure Kabul’s security.”

“A transitional administration” will be formed in Afghanistan, the minister said, as quoted by Reuters.

The Taliban is expecting a “peaceful transfer of power” from the Afghan government “in the next few days,” the radical group’s spokesman, Suhail Shaheen, told the BBC.

“We assure the people, particularly in the city of Kabul, that their properties, their lives are safe,” Shaheen said, adding that the Taliban also intends to protect the rights of women and media freedom in the country.

The group noted that Kabul is a large and densely populated city, and it won’t enter “by force or war,” suggesting that fighting to capture the capital would result in heavy losses and damage.

*  *  *

US intelligence services - by now fully woke and focused on the existential threat to the country's future that are white, middle-class American males - had predicted just 4 days ago that Kabul could fall in 90 days. It turned out to be less than 90 hours.

In a grotesque repeat of the Fall of Saigon, on Sunday, the Taliban - having reclaimed the country at an unprecedented pace - entered Kabul, freeing inmates at the city’s main prison and triggering a massive effort to airlift Western diplomats and civilians as the country’s demoralized security forces offered no resistance. Meanwhile, the US - cementing its humiliation on the international arena - was busy evacuating diplomats from the embassy in Kabul to the airport.

Taliban fighters and residents congregated around an Afghan army vehicle in Jalalabad on Sunday.; Photo: AFP

Cementing its renewed grip on the country two decades after the U.S. ousted it from power, the Taliban in a statement said that they wouldn’t take Kabul by force. The insurgent group added that it had ordered its fighters to wait and not penetrate the Afghan capital, home to six million people, and that it was in talks with “the other side” to discuss entering the city without harming its residents, the WSJ reported.

“The Islamic Emirate instructs all its forces to stand at the gates of Kabul, not to try to enter the city,” the Taliban said in a statement on Sunday, referring to the group’s formal name. “Negotiations are under way to ensure that the transition process is completed safely and securely, without putting the lives, property and honor of anyone in danger.”

Until the transition of power is done, the current Afghan government would remain responsible for the security of the capital, it said, while adding that a general amnesty was announced for all government officials and soldiers.

A senior Afghan official said President Ashraf Ghani was at the U.S. Embassy to consult with the U.S. envoy. Both the U.S. and Afghan government have asked the Taliban to hold off for two weeks until a transitional government could be agreed to, he said. “I do not think the Taliban will accept the offer,” he said.

Despite the Taliban's promises of a peaceful transition, sporadic gunfire erupted in central Kabul in the late morning as the administration of Ghani told all employees to go home.

#BREAKING: Kabul in complete blackout, heavy fighting going on. pic.twitter.com/EHYuh0TNfs

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) August 14, 2021

Soon after, checkpoints were abandoned as panicked residents clogged the streets. By early afternoon, the Taliban took over Kabul’s main Pul-e-Charkhi prison, freeing thousands of inmates, videos on social media showed.

VIDEO from Pul-e-Charkhi prison shortly before prisoners were released. #Afghanistan #Kabul pic.twitter.com/g3TB72YINs

— FJ (@Natsecjeff) August 15, 2021

Having spent trillions of dollars over two decades to "modernize" the Afghan army so it can stand up against the Taliban, it took just hours to see that this money has been completely wasted as the terrified army scattered and handed over its weapons to the advancing Taliban. As a result, over at the US embassy on Sunday afternoon helicopters ferried American and Western diplomats and civilians to the military side of Kabul airport. One after another, Chinooks and Black Hawks took off from the landing zone, spraying dust.

The U.S. will completely pull out all embassy personnel within three days, CNN reported. It added that a core of U.S. officials would remain at Kabul airport, currently the only route out of the country rushed to withdraw their cash before the Taliban takeover.

A Person familiar tells @NBCNews the US Embassy in Kabul will be closing once all personnel are transferred out and here have been intense negotiations with the Taliban for safe passage.

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) August 15, 2021

An official said military helicopters were shuttling between the embassy compound and the airport, where a core presence will remain for as long as possible given security conditions.

A helicopter flying near the U.S. Embassy in Kabul on Sunday; Photo: AP

Below them was a city of traffic jams and roundabouts choked by cars—many of them filled with Afghans trying to reach the airport’s relative safety.

Panic and desperate in kabul City Traffic-jam .. Kabulis terrified about what will happened tonight .. probably last say before fall of kabul .
I wish I couldn’t see 4 fall of kabul 1992-1996-2001 and 2021 pic.twitter.com/b69CrqiHiw

— Sami Yousafzai (@Samiyousafzai) August 15, 2021

Dark smoke, presumably from burning documents, rose from the presidential palace.

In the airport, dozens of gray U.S. Air Force and British transport planes awaited their passengers, the landing strip secured by some of the newly arrived American troops, who will also be evacuated shortly.

Some of the evacuating Westerners relaxed on cardboard boxes marked with the words “non-Pork MRE,” or meal-ready-to-eat. Others—including Afghan dual citizens—nervously waited their turn for the shuttle bus that would take them to their planes, away from the city they would be unlikely to see again anytime soon.

In Kabul, long lines formed outside banks and at the city’s few functioning ATMs as residents rushed  to withdraw their cash before the Taliban takeover.

In addition to seizing Kabul, Taliban forces now hold all of Afghanistan’s border crossings, the Associated Press said. The news agency added that Afghan forces had surrendered Bagram Air Base, north of Kabul, which the U.S. handed over to Afghanistan last month after nearly 20 years.

Seeking to avoid a mass exodus, late on Saturday the Taliban released a lengthy statement seeking to reassure Afghans and the international community. It denied reports that it had killed prisoners and forced villagers to hand over their daughters to marry Taliban soldiers, while adding that the group would respect public property, redeploy bureaucrats and military officers, and provide amnesty for anyone who “helped the invaders.”

The Taliban also said it would avoid seizing private property and create “a safe and conducive environment” for business. It also said neighboring countries should have confidence: “We assure all our neighbors that we will not create any problems for them.”

“No one should leave their area and country,” the Taliban statement said, referring to those areas it had seized. “They shall live a normal life; our nation and country need services, and Afghanistan is our joint home that we will build and serve together."

We doubt anyone actually believes this.

* * *

The stunning meltdown of the Afghan state "left the city in shock", the WSJ reports as the Taliban, who controlled none of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals just over a week ago, have seized the bulk of the country and are now readying to assume power, either directly or by controlling a new transitional administration.

In a message to followers Sunday, the Taliban’s leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, urged his fighters to treat conquered cities with a benevolent hand. “The victories are coming, do not be arrogant and conceited, do not betray the spoils of war, and treat well those who surrender to you,” he said. “Do your best to avoid civilian casualties.”

On Saturday, Biden rushed 5,000 troops to Kabul in an attempt to ensure an “orderly and safe drawdown", to secure the airport and help evacuate American diplomatic personnel. The authorization added about 1,000 U.S. personnel to the deployment of 3,000 Marines and soldiers announced this week and 1,000 troops already at the airport and the embassy, according to a defense official. Helicopters landed at the American embassy compound in Kabul early Sunday, the AP reported.

On Sunday, the Green Zone that contained much of the foreign presence emptied out as embassies closed or relocated to the military base in the airport. The U.S., which is in constant contact with the Taliban’s political leadership in Doha, Qatar, has urged the insurgents to hold off on taking Kabul until after the evacuation is complete and all Americans have left the city, according to people familiar with the talks.

Also on Sunday, there was no sign of the U.S. military in the city itself. Residents rushed to put their affairs in order and people from areas that have fallen to the insurgents sought refuge in the capital. “We have no idea what will happen from one moment to the next in this situation,” said Mohammad Nasim, a worker at a nongovernment organization. “But what can we do? There is nowhere for us to go. There is no chance to leave the city anymore.”

Afghans also mobbed Kabul’s passport offices, seeking to secure valuable travel documents while an internationally recognized Afghan government still exists—and while the airport continues operations. Not many were lucky. According to the Journal, Milad Anwari, a 38-year-old businessman at the passport line, said he had already managed to move part of his family to Turkey, but several others were stuck in Kabul. “I never expected that Taliban will come again. Now everything is going to collapse,” he said. “In the presence of Taliban I don’t have any hope for the future of my country.”

Shortly thereafter, an announcement rang out that the passport office was closing because the Taliban had entered Kabul.

In the line that snaked past blast barriers outside Afghanistan’s central bank, opinions were divided over who was to blame. Poet Samdel Banwa, originally from the eastern Kunar province, said President Biden’s April decision to withdraw all American forces was the reason for the country’s unfolding tragedy.

He wasn't alone: according to multiple reports on the ground, "people not just sad, but angry, blaming the US for abandoning the country to war, chaos, and the Taliban."

Walking around kabul. Hard stares. Mood changing. People not just sad, but angry, blaming the US for abandoning the country to war, chaos, and the Taliban

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) August 15, 2021

A Kabul schoolteacher who stood in the same line, Mirwais, vented his anger at the infighting and incompetence within the Afghan government. “The government has betrayed the people,” he said. “This is why I am standing here today.”

Meanwhile, in a sign of the total chaos facing the city - and nation - NBC reported Richard Engel said that according to witnesses people, not Taliban, were rushing police in two Kabul districts and stealing their weapons. "a sign of how completely the security forces have collapsed."

Witnesses say people, not Taliban, rushing police in two Kabul districts and stealing their weapons. A sign of how completely the security forces have collapsed

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) August 15, 2021

For the U.S., the priority now is to persuade the Taliban to hold off until the evacuation of Americans and other foreigners from Kabul is complete. Mr. Biden on Saturday said the U.S. has told Taliban representatives in Doha that any action on the ground in Afghanistan against U.S. personnel “will be met with a swift and strong U.S. military response.”

The Afghan military began to unravel soon after Biden’s April decision to pull out U.S. troops, taking away the logistical and air support on which Afghan soldiers depended. Biden said that the withdrawal, which was required under the February 2020 Doha agreement between the Taliban and the Trump administration, was the right decision.

“One more year, or five more years, of U.S. military presence would not have made a difference if the Afghan military cannot or will not hold its own country,” he said.

Biden, who’s spending the weekend at Camp David, again defended his decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan after 20 years -- America’s longest war.

“I was the fourth president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan -- two Republicans, two Democrats,” Biden said. “I would not, and will not, pass this war onto a fifth.”

Just last month, Biden - who is now busy blaming Trump for the biggest US foreign policy disaster since Vietnam - assured the world that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is not inevitable. Reading teleprompted notes prepared by the Deep State, he said that
"you have 300,000 well-equipped Afghan troops and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban." Little did either Biden, or the Deep State know just how much those 75,000 Taliban can achieve.

This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President. pic.twitter.com/j4kKwyPDVm

— BDW (@BryanDeanWright) August 15, 2021

Biden has faced mounting criticism from human rights groups and some members of his own party, as reports emerge the Taliban is already bringing a return to attacks on women and other abuses reminiscent of its earlier rule. His administration has argued the Afghan army must take the reins while the U.S. provides military and financial support.

“They’ve got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation,” Biden told reporters last week.

And while Biden will do everything in his power to deflect and blame the ensuing debacle on Donald Trump, it's now too late because when you have lost both the ultra-liberal NBC

Lots of blame to go around for Afghanistan on the US side. Trump made a terrible deal with the Taliban, effectively promising them the country and empowering them. But Biden then implemented the deal, so the buck stops with him.

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) August 15, 2021

... as well as Financial Times it's over:

Sensing that the fall of Kabul under Joe Biden also marks a tipping point of US standing on the international arena, China has pushed the propaganda engine into overdrive with the editor in chief of the state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times writing that "the Afghan government does not have the ability to resist and was completely defeated so quickly. This is the failure of the US and the West. A big, direct slap on the face of the Biden administration."

The Afghan government does not have the ability to resist and was completely defeated so quicky. This is the failure of the US and the West. A big, direct slap on the face of the Biden administration. pic.twitter.com/XwZQ6S5rEH

— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) August 15, 2021

Expect many more such mocking statements from America's global foes in the coming days. After today, it certainly has many.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 04:55

How Factor Investing Works

Why do investments perform the way they do? This is a question many investment experts have been attempting to answer for years. Luckily, factor investing can provide investors with a data-driven understanding.

In this infographic from MSCI, Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross uses scenarios from everyday life to explain how factor investing works.

What is Factor Investing?

Simply put, investors choose stocks based on the “factors”, or characteristics, that help explain investment performance. They are typically aiming for:

• Higher returns
• Lower risk
• More diversification

While you may not have actively incorporated factor investing in your current portfolio, almost everyone will be familiar with the underlying concepts in real life. Here are five common factors and scenarios where you likely experience their principles.

1. Low Volatility Factor

The low volatility factor attempts to capture excess returns to stocks with lower than average risk. This factor has generally performed best during economic slowdowns or contractions.

How you may experience it: If you want a writing career with relatively reliable income, you’ll likely choose to be a marketer at a large company rather than a self-employed author.

2. Quality Factor

The quality factor attempts to capture excess returns in shares of companies that are characterized by low debt, stable earnings growth, and other “quality” metrics. This factor has generally performed best during economic contractions.

How you may experience it: When you’re purchasing new tires for your car, you might consider characteristics like tread longevity, traction, and fuel economy.

3. Value Factor

The value factor attempts to capture excess returns to stocks that have low prices relative to their fundamental value. This factor has generally performed best during economic recoveries.

How you may experience it: If you want a good deal, you may look for items that are on sale.

4. Momentum Factor

The momentum factor attempts to capture excess returns to stocks with stronger past performance. It has generally performed best during economic expansions.

How you may experience it: When you’re deciding what to watch, you may choose a TV show that has high audience ratings. You’ll likely also recommend it to your friends, which further boosts viewer numbers.

5. Low Size Factor

The low size factor attempts to capture excess returns of smaller firms (by market capitalization) relative to their larger counterparts. It has generally performed best during economic recoveries.

How you may experience it: When you’re learning a new sport, you’ll see larger increases in your skill level than a professional athlete will.

Understanding Your Investments With Factor Investing

These simple concepts are at work in your everyday life and in your investments. Targeting these factors can help you meet your investing goals, including maximizing return potential and managing risk.

From 2000 to 2020, here’s how the risk and return of the above factors compared to the benchmark MSCI World Index.

​​Annualized risk and gross returns in USD from December 29 2000 to December 31 2020 for MSCI World Factor Indexes.

All five of the factors have had greater historical returns than the benchmark index, and some have also had lower risk.

With factor investing, you can better understand what drives your portfolio’s performance.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 04:15

UK Prime Minister Recalls Parliament From Summer Recess Over Afghanistan

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has requested MPs come back from summer recess to discuss the situation in Afghanistan, parliamentary authorities confirmed on Sunday.

They said the request has been granted by Speaker of the House Sir Lindsay Hoyle.

On Sunday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani relinquished power as the Taliban entered Kabul, according to Interior Minister Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal, who confirmed there would be a transfer of power. Ghani reportedly left the country on Sunday.

“The Speaker of the House of Commons has granted a request from the government to recall the House at 9:30 a.m.—2:30 p.m on Wednesday, August 18 in relation to the situation in Afghanistan,” parliamentary authorities said in a statement.

Ministers and senior officials would meet on Sunday afternoon to discuss the worsening situation, Downing Street said.

It came as Britain and other Western countries were scrambling to get their remaining nationals out of the country before it was too late.

The lead elements of a 600-strong UK force—including Paras from 16 Air Assault Brigade—were understood to be in the capital to assist with the operation.

The Taliban insisted that there would be no reprisals against Afghans who had worked for the government or for foreign countries and that they were seeking a peaceful transfer of power.

However, such assurances were greeted with scepticism by Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee Tom Tugendhat, who said the priority had to be to get as many people as possible out of Kabul.

“This isn’t just about interpreters or guards. This is about those people who we trained in special forces to serve alongside us, those who helped us to understand the territory through our agencies and our diplomats,” Tugendhat told BBC News.

“This is the people who, on our encouragement, set up schools for girls. These people are all at risk now,” he said.

“The real danger is that we are going to see every female MP murdered, we are going to see ministers strung up on street lamps.”

Defence Committee chair Tobias Ellwood called for the dispatch of the Royal Navy carrier strike group to the region and urged the prime minister to convene an emergency conference of “like-minded nations” to see what could be done.

“I plead with the prime minister to think again. We have an ever-shrinking window of opportunity to recognise where this country is going as a failed state,” he told Times Radio.

“We can turn this around but it requires political will and courage. This is our moment to step forward,” Ellwood said.

“We could prevent this, otherwise history will judge us very, very harshly in not stepping in when we could do and allowing the state to fail.”

In response to accusations of betraying Afghanistan, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said on Saturday that “what comes next should not overshadow what we did during those 20 years.”

“And let’s look at other failed states where we did not intervene, such as Syria. The scale of suffering and terror in that country tragically surpasses anything Afghanistan has experienced,” Wallace wrote in an opinion article published in The Telegraph.

Wallace, who has been sceptical about the hasty withdrawal of Western military from Afghanistan, said he had tried to rally countries to stay in the country after the United States announced its withdrawal but had no success, as “weary publics and parliaments in country after country had no appetite.”

He argued that the United Kingdom can’t unilaterally go back to Afghanistan as some have suggested.

“A unilateral force would very quickly be viewed as an occupying force and, no matter how powerful the country that sends it, history shows us what happens to them in Afghanistan,” Wallace wrote.

“It would be arrogant to think we could solve Afghanistan unilaterally.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 03:30

The Gradual Death Of EU Coal Production

Coal has been experiencing a gradual death in the EU over the last few decades, at least in terms of production on European soil.

New figures from Eurostat show that in 1990, EU production totaled 277.4 million tonnes and as Statista's Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, that has fallen steadily since, with just 56.5 million tonnes in 2020, churned out almost exclusively by Poland.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Germany is the most notable absence from the 2020 figures, having accounted for 27 percent 30 years ago.

While production in Czechia has halved over the time period, it was the only country alongside Poland to contribute towards the industry in 2020.

Spain, France and all other member states have also disappeared in the latest figures.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 02:45

Former CIA Officer: "The Most Infamous & Devastating Press Conference Ever Held By An American President"

Kabul's streets are clogged with panicked civilians fleeing the Taliban onslaught of the Afghan capital, American chinook helicopters are hovering above the US Embassy with an emergency evacuation in progress, and the national government propped up for two decades by US money and power is negotiating surrender with barely a fight.

One former CIA officer has observed looking back to Joe Biden's July 8 Afghan policy speech: "This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President," wrote CIA foreign operations veteran Bryan Dean Wright on Sunday.

This may become the most infamous — and devastating — press conference ever held by an American President. pic.twitter.com/j4kKwyPDVm

— BDW (@BryanDeanWright) August 15, 2021

"When I announced our drawdown in April, I said we would be out by September, and we’re on track to meet that target," Biden had said. "Our military mission in Afghanistan will conclude on August 31st."

Clearly the Taliban are on the cusp of declaring victory in Kabul far ahead of that date marker, and certainly very far ahead of the initially conceived September 11 symbolic 'mission accomplished' date (without doubt whatever plans were laid for an optimistic sounding 9/11 "we're out of Afghanistan" or even "mission accomplished" speech will be scrapped).

Here's the exchange from a bit over a month ago:

REPORTER: Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable?

THE PRESIDENT:  No, it is not.

REPORTER:   Why?

THE PRESIDENT:  Because you — the Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped — as well-equipped as any army in the world — and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable.

Perhaps this utter failure to grasp or predict anything close to reality on the ground in the conflict is a failure also shared by US intelligence, given that it was only in June that a widely reported intel assessment forecast that Kabul could fall within six months.

US intelligence agencies who said just 4 days ago that Kabul could fall in 90 days have revised the figure to 72 hours
https://t.co/v2XUuPVcKX

— Bruno Maçães (@MacaesBruno) August 14, 2021

But just last week that assessment was significantly revised to say within "one month to 90 days". Merely the last 48 hours has obviously proven this completely off the mark as well.

US intelligence is now giving it just 72 hours - but it's looking more and more like the Taliban will overrun the capital in maybe just 24 hours, which may not even be enough time for all US diplomatic personnel to get out.

President Ashraf Ghani greets a Taliban delegation at the presidential palace a few hours ago, after signing an agreement to resign and transfer powers to the Taliban. Some reports that he is expected to leave the country shortly. #Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/ce8bW8A588

— Sharmine Narwani (@snarwani) August 15, 2021

Meanwhile, Afghanistan's US-backed leaders appear to be putting their exit plans in place, with appeals being made to the invading Taliban to spare them and their families...

Ex, president Karzai latest message:
I am here in Kabul with my girls and I ask the Taliban to provide security and safety for the people. pic.twitter.com/l3FmVC6jnE

— Tajuden Soroush (@TajudenSoroush) August 15, 2021

For example former Afghan president Hamid Karzai urged the Taliban to provide security and safety for the city's civilians and its leaders in a Sunday video message recorded while standing with his three daughters.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 02:22

Lockdown Created 1 Million New Alcoholics In England

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Official data shows that England’s lockdown caused an extra 1 million people to become addicted to alcohol since the start of the pandemic.

Before the pandemic began, government polling indicated that there were around 1.5 million alcoholics in the country, meaning people who drank at least 50 units every week.

“But this jumped to just shy of 2.5 million this summer, which experts have blamed on the endless cycle of virus-controlling restrictions,” reports the Daily Mail.

According to alcohol abuse expert Dr Tony Rao of King’s College London, “The impact of the Covid pandemic on alcohol use has been devastating. The latest data, taken together with the highest number of alcohol-specific deaths on record, is a stark warning for the Government.”

Alcohol charities are warning of a crisis “that is happening now” after Public Health England revealed that “deaths directly caused by alcohol soared by 20% during the first year of the pandemic.”

As we highlighted earlier, young children’s cognitive development during lockdown was also severely impaired as a result of a lack of human interaction and mask mandates.

The true impact of lockdowns on the health and well-being of both young and old won’t be properly known until years into the future.

However, studies already undertaken into the devastation it will cause are chilling.

A data analyst consortium in South Africa concluded that the economic consequences of the country’s lockdown would lead to 29 times more people dying than the coronavirus itself.

As we previously reported, Academics from Duke, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins have concluded that there could be around a million excess deaths over the next two decades as a result of lockdowns.

Back in June, Stanford University professor of medicine Jay Bhattacharya warned that in years to come lockdowns will be looked back upon as the most catastrophically harmful policy in “all of history.”

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Tyler Durden Mon, 08/16/2021 - 02:00

Why The NARA Secrecy Over The Secret JFK Records?

Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

For some unknown reason, there seems to be some secrecy on the part of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) over the still-secret 58-year-old records of the CIA and other federal agencies relating to the Kennedy assassination.

On July 29, 2021, I submitted the following request for information through the NARA website:

Would you please advise me whether any federal agencies, especially the CIA, have expressed an interest in seeking an extension of time for continued secrecy with respect to the JFK records that are set to be released in October?

On August 10, I received the following email from NARA:

Dear Mr. Jacob Hornberger,

After looking into your request, we are able to confirm that at this time NARA and other federal agencies are in the process of reviewing JFK assassination records in accordance with the requirements of the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992 and the April 26, 2018, Presidential Memorandum on Certification for Certain Records Related to the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Similar to the 2017-2018 release, NARA plans to make the releasable records from the 2021 review available on the National Archives website.  More details will be communicated as updates arrive.

Sincerely,
Ashney Randle
Special Access & FOIA Program

On August 10, I sent the following email to Ms. Randle:

Dear Ms. Randle,

Thank you for your email. It provides interesting information, for which I am appreciative.

Unfortunately, however, your email does not answer my question, which is: “Would you please advise me whether any federal agencies, especially the CIA, have expressed an interest in seeking an extension of time for continued secrecy with respect to the JFK records that are set to be released in October?”

Was this an oversight? Or is there some reason why this information has to remain secret?

Thank you for your time and continued attention to this matter.

Sincerely,
Jacob Hornberger

On August 10, Ms. Randle sent me the following email:

Dear Mr. Jacob Hornberger,

As we were looking for an answer to your request, unfortunately, this is all the information that the National Archives has concerning the JFK records scheduled for release in October. While we understand this is not an ideal answer to your question, we do know that as updates become available, they will be posted online on the National Archives website.

Sincerely,
Ashney Randle
Special Access & FOIA Program

On August 10, I sent the following email to Ms. Randle:

Dear Ms. Randle,

I refer to the following excerpt from President Trump’s April 18, 2018, memorandum entitled “Certification for Certain Records Related to the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy” (https://fas.org/sgp/trump/jfk-cert.pdf):

“Any agency that seeks further postponement beyond October 26, 2021, shall, no later than April 26, 2021, identify to the Archivist the specific basis for concluding that records (or portions of records) satisfy the standard for continued postponement under section 5(g)(2)(D) of the Act. Thereafter, the Archivist shall recommend to the President, no later than September 26, 2021, whether continued withholding from public disclosure of the identified records is warranted after October 26, 2021.”

All I am asking for is whether any agency has, in fact, “identified to the Archivist the specific basis for concluding that records (or portions of records) satisfy the standard for continued postponement” and, if so, the names of such agencies.

It seems to me that disclosing that information, one way or the other, would be a rather simple thing to do. Or is there a reason why such information has to be kept secret?

Thank you for your time and your continued attention to this matter.

Jacob Hornberger

After that email, I failed to receive any more emails from Ms. Randle, and given her last email to me on August 10, I don’t expect to receive a direct answer to my question. (If I do, I will update this blog post.)

That raises the obvious question: Why the secrecy on this particular question? Why not openly and publicly disclose now whether the CIA or other federal agencies have expressed an interest in another extension of time for secrecy of their official JFK assassination-related records? 

Or to be more specific, why not disclose now, openly and publicly, whether “any agency that seeks further postponement beyond October 26, 2021 [has identified] to the Archivist the specific basis for concluding that records (or portions of records) satisfy the standard for continued postponement under section 5(g)(2)(D) of the Act.”

It’s one thing to keep the official JFK assassination-related records of the CIA and other federal agencies secret after almost 60 years. But it’s quite another thing to keep secret whether the CIA and other federal agencies have expressed an interest to the National Archives for more years (or decades) of official secrecy of their official assassination-related records.

If NARA were to disclose now whether the CIA and other federal agencies have expressed an interest in seeking more time for secrecy, the American people could begin discussing whether such a request should be granted. They could also be writing op-eds and editorials on the matter. They could be expressing their opinions to the members of Congress as well as to President Biden. Keeping such expressions of interest secret until the last minute leading up to the October 26 deadline naturally tends to suppress such discussions.

Isn’t it bad enough to keep official assassination-related records secret after almost six decades? Doesn’t it just compound the problem when the National Archives keeps secret whether the CIA or other federal agencies have expressed an interest in another extension of time for secrecy?

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/15/2021 - 23:30

Tropics Awaken With Three Storms In Focus

We reminded readers earlier this month that statistically speaking, the busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season has begun and will peak around Sept. 10. As of Sunday evening, there are three systems in the tropics that we're watching. 

The first is Tropical Storm Fred that will impact southeast Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the western Carolinas beginning on Monday afternoon. Torrential rains are expected across the Southeast US through Wednesday. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is expecting dangerous storm surges across the Florida Panhandle. 

The next system we're watching is Tropical Depression Grace which is set to unleash heavy rainfall that could result in flash floods across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti beginning on Monday afternoon. 

The third system on our radar is Invest 96L, located northeast of Bermuda, and has continued to become better organized on Sunday evening. There's a 90% chance the system could be upgraded to a depression in the next 48 hours. 

"If this trend continues, advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda," NHC wrote in its latest tropical weather outlook. 

With three systems to watch to start the week, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters believe a busy hurricane season is ahead. 

Source: Bloomberg 

The quiet period appears to be over, and the tropics are beginning to heat up.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/15/2021 - 23:00

Nixon's Gold Treachery Made Me A Cynic

Authored by James Bovard via The American Institute for Economic Research,

Fifty years ago, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon announced that the U.S. government would cease honoring its pledge to pay gold to redeem the dollars held by foreign central banks. Nixon declared he was taking “action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators.” But there was no way to defend the dollar against politicians. Nixon touted his default as therapy for his tormented fellow citizens, promising it would “help us snap out of the self-doubt, the self-disparagement that saps our energy and erodes our confidence in ourselves.” Nixon wrapped his decree with lofty political rhetoric, appealing to the nation’s “greatest ideals” and promising a “new prosperity” that “befits a great people.”

The dollar thus became a fiat currency – something which possessed value solely because politicians said so. Nixon spurred the Federal Reserve to create an artificial boom to boost his reelection campaign. To suppress the damage from a flood of new money, he imposed wage and price controls, making it a crime to raise prices without government permission.

At that time, I was working in a peach orchard in rural Virginia for 10 hours a day, reaping $1.40 an hour and all the peach fuzz I could take home on my arms and neck. Nixon’s wage controls doomed any chance of getting that raise to $1.45 an hour. But no loss – I was leaving that job soon to go back to high school. I was 15 at that time and an avid coin collector. I soaked up the rage at the reckless federal policies that permeated Coin News and other numismatic publications.  “Government as scoundrel” was the theme of many editorials and articles I read in those periodicals in the following months and years. I had no savvy on economics but my gut sense told me something was profoundly amiss. Nixon’s decree spurred my reading and researching. 

Nixon’s gold default was also a landmark for America’s rising economic and political illiteracy. In the era of this nation’s birth, currency was often recognized as a character issue – specifically, the contemptible character of politicians. Shortly before the 1787 Constitutional Convention, George Washington warned that unsecured paper money will “ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.” The Coinage Age of 1792 established gold and silver as the foundation for the nation’s currency and authorized a death penalty for anyone who debased the nation’s gold or silver coins.

Unfortunately, politicians later exempted themselves from penalties for debasing the currency. In 1933, the U.S. had the largest gold reserves of any nation in the world. But fear of devaluation spurred a panic, which President Franklin Roosevelt exploited to seize people’s gold. FDR denounced anyone who refused to turn in their gold as a “hoarder.” Any citizen caught with more than $100 in gold coins faced ten years in prison and a $250,000 fine. (The penalty was not as harsh the Soviet Union’s death penalty for anyone caught “hoarding” wheat from a collective farm.)

FDR asserted that banning private ownership of gold was necessary to give government “freedom of action” – which he quickly exploited by devaluing the dollar by 59% with a decree raising the value of gold from $20 an ounce to $35 an ounce. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau hailed the gold policy as part of the administration’s “plans for a restoration of public confidence,” but the de facto default on government debts set the precedent for boundless federal arbitrariness for the rest of the decade. FDR tried every trick to drive up prices, foolishly confident that a mere change in numerical prices would spawn prosperity. The resulting inflation was invoked in the early 1940s to help justify imposing payroll tax withholding.

In the mid-1960s, the dollar was under pressure from perennial federal deficit spending and President Lyndon Johnson responded by eliminating all the silver in new dimes and quarters. After severing the dollar’s link to silver, LBJ demanded that the Federal Reserve pump up the economy. He even summoned Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch and “physically beat him, he slammed him against the wall, and said, ‘Martin, my boys are dying in Vietnam, and you won’t print the money I need,'” according to Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher. Since LBJ didn’t murder Martin at his ranch, the media could continue to portray the Federal Reserve as “independent” of political control. The Fed accommodated LBJ sufficiently that the inflation rate more than tripled between 1964 to 1968, rising from 1.3% to 4.3%. The rising inflation set the scene for Nixon’s gold repudiation.

FDR’s prohibition on private gold ownership contained a loophole for rare coins with numismatic value. Luckily, the feds did not vigorously police that exemption. By 1973, I was buying Mexican and French gold pieces to save and to sell to high school classmates and others. After I got laid off from a construction job in the summer of 1974, I saw it as a sign from God (or at least from the market) that I should buy more gold. I liquidated most of my coin collection and put all my available cash into gold and also took out a consumer finance loan at 18% to purchase even more. That interest rate was the gauge of my blind confidence. I had been closely following gold prices and was convinced a price spike was coming. Nixon’s resignation in August did wonders for the price of gold.

I didn’t get rich but made enough to help cover my costs for sporadically attending Virginia Tech, with some money left over to pay for my first literary strikeouts. Though Nixon assured the nation in 1971 that “the effect of this action… will be to stabilize the dollar,” the “Nixon Shock” was “followed by a decade of one of the worst inflations of American history and the most stagnant economy since the Great Depression. The price of gold rose to $800 from $35,” as Lewis Lehrman noted. Americans have suffered 570% inflation since Nixon “stabilized” the dollar.

Nixon’s gold decree and other policies helped me recognize that politicians are far more perfidious than the media portrays. If the government would intentionally destroy the value of the currency, I wondered what else it was undermining. The Watergate scandal provided further evidence of “politician” as synonym for “damn rascal.” The dissolution of the Vietnam War clinched the case as Americans learned how presidents had conned the nation into a pointless Asian bloodbath. Gas shortages and gas lines beginning in late 1973 confirmed that any cadre of “best and brightest” in Washington was an optical illusion.

Fifty years after Nixon’s betrayal, America is again facing rapidly increasing inflation. The Biden administration is embracing almost boundless deficit spending in its quest to throw unrestricted free money at any non-millionaire who might vote for Democratic candidates. Most of the fawning media coverage on Biden policies is as economically illiterate as the cheerleaders for Nixon’s chicanery long ago. If the government continues on this path, it is only a question of time until fresh debacles result. But from the economic wreckage, a new generation of cynics may arise who do a far better job of putting politicians back on a leash.   

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/15/2021 - 22:30

Deep Diving For Metals: Visualizing Ocean Mining

The mining sector has been one of the biggest beneficiaries in the COVID-19 recovery.

Several countries’ recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like copper, iron ore and lithium. Given that more metals are necessary for electrification and the clean energy transition, many companies are looking at an unexplored market: ocean mining.

Mining of the Deep Sea is still under study but metals are abundant on the seafloor. Reserves are estimated to be worth anywhere from $8 trillion to more than $16 trillion.

Visual Capitalist provides this infographic from Prospector provides a visual overview of the seabed mining process.

Down in the Depths

The most prolific area for ocean mining is the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, between Hawaii and Mexico. Almost 20 international mining companies have contracts to explore the region which spans over 5,000 kilometers.

Most of the metals are found in potato-sized rock-like polymetallic nodules. Millions of years old, the nodules grow by absorbing metals from the seawater, expanding slowly around the core of shell, bone, or rock.

Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts

It is estimated that there are 21 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules resting on the ocean floor in the CCZ, containing an estimated:

• 6 billion tonnes of manganese

• 226 million tonnes of copper – about 25% of land-based reserves

• 94,000 tonnes of cobalt – about six times as much as current land-based reserves

• 270 million tonnes of nickel – 100 times the annual global nickel production in 2019

Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts are found on the sides of underwater mountain ranges and seamounts. Similar to nodules, these crusts form over millions of years as metal compounds in the water. Roughly 57% of them are located in the Pacific.

Polymetallic sulfide deposits formed after seawater seeps into volcanic rocks can be found along tectonic plate boundaries on the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean.

How Does Ocean Mining Work?

Extraction of minerals from the seafloor is planned to involve either modified dredging (for nodules), cutting (for massive sulphides and crusts), and transport of the material as a slurry in a riser or basket system to a surface support vessel.

The mineral-bearing material is then processed in a ship (cleaning and dewatering – with the wastewater and sediment being returned to the ocean) and then transferred to a barge for transport to shore where it will be further processed to extract the target metals.

Towards a Greener Future

Growing demand for batteries to power electric cars and store wind and solar energy has driven up the cost of many metals and bolstered the business case for seabed mining.

According to a study published in the Journal of Cleaner Production, producing battery metals from nodules could reduce emissions of CO² by 70-75%,  cut land use by 94% and eliminate 100% of solid waste.

Here is a look at how ocean and land mining compares:

 

Source: The Metals Company

 

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has so far approved 28 exploration contracts in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans, covering 1.3 million square kilometers of the ocean floor.

With many companies turning their eyes to the unexplored riches of the ocean, seabed mining could offer a wealth of untapped minerals on the ocean floor.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/15/2021 - 22:00