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"Utterly Unacceptable": Judge Blasts DC Jail For Not Allowing Jan. 6 Capitol Defendant Access To Evidence

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A federal Washington D.C. judge faulted a district jail on Thursday for failing to provide evidence to a defendant who was arrested for allegedly being involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol breach and has been held there for months.

Jorden Mink, the defendant in the case, was indicted (pdf) on several federal charges, including destruction of government property and theft. Mink, who has pleaded not guilty, has been held in jail since January. Officials have alleged Mink used a baseball bat to smash windows at the Capitol and passed furniture through the smashed windows to the crowd outside.

“I can’t allow someone to sit in prison for this long without access to material,” Judge Randolph Moss said at a court hearing on Thursday, saying the delay in evidence was “utterly unacceptable” and “not consistent with due process.”

During the Thursday court hearing, prosecutors said they had given the evidence to the jail in May and didn’t understand why Mink hasn’t been able to obtain the documents. Mink was offered a plea deal, prosecutors noted, but they said he can’t decide on whether to accept the deal because he hasn’t seen the evidence against him.

Randolph ordered prosecutors to work with the jail to grant the defendant access to the evidence against him by the end of Thursday, reported CNN. If Mink doesn’t gain access to the documents soon, the judge said, his detention may be reconsidered.

There have been other reports of Jan. 6 defendants not being able to gain access to evidence against them, essentially denying them due process under the Constitution’s Fifth Amendment. Prosecutors have suggested that due to the sheer number of arrests related to the incident, there have been delays.

So far, more than 500 defendants across nearly every U.S. state have been charged over the past six months over the Jan. 6 breach, according to the Department of Justice in early July.

It comes as lawyers earlier this month said that dozens of people in federal custody following the Jan. 6 incident are currently being held in solitary confinement, denied access to legal counsel, and are being denied medical care.

“There are about 50 plus or minus that are being detained, that have been in prison for months and will likely remain in prison for many more months until their day in court,” attorney John Pierce told EpochTV’s “The Nation Speaks.”

Mink was scheduled to appear before Randolph in April but missed the court date because he tested positive for COVID-19. His attorney, Michael Mosher, said that Mink was having difficulty gaining access to medication that he takes regularly while in jail.

“He takes medications to treat those, but since coming to Virginia and DC, he’s not been getting those meds as prescribed,” Moser told a court at the time, according to local media.

In January, Mink was arrested at his home in Bridgeville, Pennsylvania, and was held in the Butler County Jail. Federal court records say that he was transferred from the county jail to the D.C. jail.

The Epoch Times has contacted the D.C. jail for comment.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 15:30

Watch Kyle Bass On The "Cancer" Of China’s New Digital Currency

“Imagine a currency that almost has a mind of its own … It knows your account data, knows your birthday, your social security number, where you live” and exactly what you like to buy. And all of this knowledge would be sitting in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.

In this Epoch Times interview of American Thought Leaders, Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management and one of the few people who successfully bet on the bursting of the subprime bubble, breaks down the threat of a new Chinese digital currency and how the regime could force countries to use it.

“They’re so good at exploiting every crack, every nook, every cranny … They take our openness, and they exploit it,” Bass says.

Watch more in the full American Thought Leaders interview below.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 15:00

Hedge Fund CIO On The DeFi Revolution

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management. For those unfamiliar withe Decentralized Finance (DeFi), we urge you to read "Decentralized Finance (DeFi) 101" first.

“Revolutions are defined by the revolutionaries,” said Marcel Kasumovich, our head of research. “History may find them after the fact, but we are living with them in real time. It started with Satoshi’s anonymity. This is part of the revolutionary design. Components of the Bitcoin protocol were invented long before Satoshi brought it together in a single, stable protocol. Adam Back created hash-cash that is the currency unit of the Bitcoin protocol. Satoshi is the Picasso, the creative genius, transforming buckets of paint into an enduring philosophy. Perhaps Satoshi understood there was no timetable for success. It could take days, years, or decades to inspire a generation. The anonymity of Satoshi allows the group to live forever. We are all Satoshi.”
 
“It is not your average youth movement. It will not be defined by a noisy twitter debate or clever memes,” continued Marcel, placing this moment in historical context. “Vitalik Buterin was inspired by Satoshi, and the Ethereum protocol is going through its most profound transformation since its inception only a short six years ago. Would Satoshi have agreed with the Buterin fork? It is not the point. Splinters in the revolution are precisely part of the creative process; if you are not breaking things on the path to innovation, you are not doing it right. Then there is Stani Kulechov. A student of law in Helsinki Finland with an interest in programming who discovered the world of fintech through the lens of the Ethereum protocol and the smart contracts it could employ. ETHLend was created in 2017, and it is better known as the leading lending protocol of Aave.”

 
“Aave is now the leader in decentralized finance. There is $10bln of locked capital in Aave protocols. Almost half of the $15bln in DeFi lending happens on the Aave protocol. Of the interest paid through DeFi lending, 46% is done through Aave at an annualized rate of $245mm. It is tempting to trivialize the achievement. After all, total loans and leases in the US commercial banking system are more than $10trln. But keep in mind Stani Kulechov achieved his graduate degree in law in 2018 and his interest in computer programming was cultivated as a teenager. The revolutionaries are not chasing any traditional financial institution. They are chasing a desire to make things better, and a hope for getting closer to the truth. In Kulechov’s words, “DeFi might not replace all TradFi service providers, but it will replace the software and infrastructure that TradFi is based upon”. With no hint of irony, he observes that “TradFi becomes the gateway for DeFi.””

“Regulation. It is the word to put shivers in the spine of any traditional institution evaluating asset allocation in the digital ecosystem. Regulation will not stand for it. Regulation will slow growth. Regulation will redistribute profit. Regulation will force decentralized agencies to be on a level playing field with centralized ones - as though traditional institutions are somehow disadvantaged from capital-starved decentralized players. It is a term used to invoke fear, and it requires far more precision in its mention. The crypto economy is regulated. Ask anybody in the money service business who is registered with FinCEN and provides thousands of monthly reports on suspicious transactions, by regulatory decree. As the crypto economy enters the mainstream, it will blend with TradFi as a matter of practicality. It must and it will.”

“Regulation is the gateway for DeFi to enter the mainstream, and it is already happening. Last August, Aave received an Electronic Money Institution license from the UK Financial Conduct Authority, that allowed the protocol to trial services with UK citizens. Aave Pro will be released in this month, aimed at bringing institutions into the liquidity pool of decentralizing lending. Well-regarded smart contracts will add centralized tools such as whitelisting of addresses and know-your-customer provisions. These are precisely the steps that the FATF regulatory body would desire.”

“There is no turning back,” explained Marcel. “The technology is being tested, adopted, and admired. The revolution is happening from within institutions with leaders who see a better way. It will take time for users to see the value. After all, statues of revolutionaries are only mounted long after their work is done. But make no mistake – the people and firms who underestimate the intelligence, drive and creativity of those working on change are precisely the ones who will be, at best, left behind and, at worst, run-over by the technologies. These are not our parents’ revolutionaries.”

Anecdote

Each generation believes it can create a better world. Were it not so, we would still live in caves. Some generations thirst for change through revolution. That probably has to do with longer term economic and political cycles. But for whatever reason, amongst these revolutionary generations, some are more determined, effective. The 1960s-70s youth seemed radical, but they were far from French revolutionaries. Their actions failed to spark an inferno. My wife Mara grew up in a hippy enclave during that period. Her town sought to opt out of the system by going backward, living off the land, returning to simpler times.

But history rarely turns back the clock for long. That generation never had a credible plan to replace the system with something better. Nor did it have a new technology to amplify force. The establishment knew this. The youth back then presented no real threat, just the appearance of instability. Daisies and LSD.

But today’s youth have built the technologies to power revolution. Their protocols remain nascent, but if they’re allowed to flourish (or if they cannot be stopped), they will credibly replace incumbent industries that the masses have come to despise (retail banks, commercial banks, central banks, wall street, money transfer agents, credit card companies, social media companies, exchanges of every kind, censors, and the list has just started). Someday these technologies may threaten our notion of centralized government control.

In the 1960s-70s, incumbents knew the revolutionaries had no credible plan. This time, revolutionary technologies are already being rolled out. They are more efficient, cheaper, faster. They cut out the middlemen. And empower the individual. Today’s incumbents are threatened with extinction. In fact, if today’s business leaders were 30yrs younger, most would be racing to build their companies/wealth in this new field of blockchain. This is what a credible revolution looks like, waged by brilliant youth, impassioned, with fantastic ideas, immense wealth, and humanity’s most powerful technologies, applied in ways that incumbents can barely understand. And it is too early to tell exactly where this new generation will lead us, only that it is to a profoundly different future.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 15:00

Poor Hedging Could Cost U.S. Shale $20 Billion

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

U.S. shale oil producers have suffered billions in losses from hedging their output at lower than current prices, the Financial Times reported today, citing data from IHS Markit.

According to the consultancy, even though crude oil is trading at over $70 per barrel right now, U.S. shale producers are selling their barrels for an average of $55 because that’s the price they hedged their future sales at.

For the first half of the year, IHS Markit says, losses have reached $7.5 billion but if oil prices remained around $75 per barrel, this could add another $12 billion during the second half of the year as demand continues improving.

This, the report notes, could give OPEC more pricing power: because of their badly miscalculated hedging, U.S. shale oil producers are unlikely start boosting production in any major way anytime soon. As a result, OPEC can do pretty much what it wants with its own production and push prices however high it wants.

“Opec gets a pass to keep lifting prices right now if it wants to, without fearing much of a US supply response,” Bill Farren-Price, an analyst at Enverus, told the FT.

“Shale producers are locked into selling their oil cheaply this year.”

Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers have become wary of hedging, according to a Reuters report from earlier this week.

After a surge in hedging in June, the report noted, companies have now retreated and adopted a wait-and-see attitude, not least because of bullish forecasts on oil prices.

"With every bank saying that oil will be at $90-$100, no one is going to put hedges on right now," one industry executive told Reuters.

Shareholders are sceptical of the benefits of hedging, too, Reuters reports, citing analysts. In fact, shareholders would rather companies ramped up production than hedging, which is acting as a deterrent factor, too. Still, some shale producers are hedging more, although these are a small minority.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 14:30

TikTok Bans Cryptocurrency And Financial Services Promotional Content From Its Platform

In a move that is likely going to sever off a large portion of its content (and we're certain has nothing to do with the Chinese government), TikTok is now banning financial services, pyramid schemes and cryptocurrencies from its platform. 

So much for the number one source where most "investors" get their financial advice nowadays...

The move comes after "users were warned against taking financial advice from TikTok videos over concerns it could be misleading, particularly for younger savers," according to Yahoo! News. 

Financial services and products were added to TikTok's "globally prohibited industries" list, alongside "lending and management of money assets, loans and credit cards, buy now pay later services, trading platforms, cryptocurrency, foreign exchange, debit and pre-payment cards, forex trading and pyramid schemes," the report says.

Anthony Morrow, co-founder of financial advice service OpenMoney said: “...the real proof of TikTok’s commitment to cleaning up its act will be in how it enforces the policy to ensure that banned content is identified and removed quickly.”

“We know that social media influencers are fuelling demand for day trading and unregulated investments like cryptocurrencies by talking up the potential returns without explaining the enormous risks involved,” he continued.

And the move is meaningful for TikTok in terms of content views: posts labeled #bitcoin have received 4.4 billion views and those labeled #cryptocurrency have received 1.5 billion views. The report says that the #investment hashtag has received 790 million views, and the hashtag #stockstobuy has received 447 million.

Morrow commented that people should get advice from someone “who’s properly qualified to talk about the options," Yahoo reported.

In an obvious nod to apps like Robinhood and TikTok, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority noted earlier this year that young people were "getting involved in higher risk investments, potentially prompted by the accessibility offered by new investment apps".

The authority concluded that "there is evidence that these higher risk products may not always be suitable for these consumers’ needs as nearly two thirds (59%) claim that a significant investment loss would have a fundamental impact on their current or future lifestyle."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 14:00

Majority Of Americans Now Believe COVID Was Leaked From Wuhan Lab, New Poll Finds

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new Politico-Harvard study finds that a majority of Americans now believe COVID was leaked from the Wuhan lab, underscoring again the danger of empowering ‘fact-checkers’, media outlets and Silicon Valley to censor information.

The poll found that 52% of Americans believe the lab leak hypothesis, once derided as a fringe “conspiracy theory,” including 59% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats.

Bipartisan support for the theory is highly unusual, with poll designer Bob Blendon commenting, “Usually, our polls find a big split between Republicans and Democrats, so this is unique.”

“The Politico-Harvard study shows that what was once covered by liberal media as a far-right fake news story is now broadly accepted on a bipartisan basis,” reports the Daily Mail.

“By contrast, in March 2020 just 29% of Americans accepted the lab leak theory.”

Indeed, for many months the media and social media networks characterized the whole idea as a dangerous conspiracy theory and those who promoted it were censored and deplatformed.

In June 2020, Vice President Kamala Harris even claimed Donald Trump’s advocacy of the theory represented “racist and xenophobic rhetoric against Asian Americans and Asian immigrants directly puts their lives at risk.”

As we previously highlighted, Dr. Peter Daszak, President of the EcoHealth Alliance, a group that has extensive ties to the Wuhan lab gain of function research, thanked Dr. Anthony Fauci for dismissing the lab leak theory early on in the pandemic.

Daszak was also tasked by Facebook with ‘fact-checking’ (censoring) information related to the hypothesis, while Google, which via YouTube also censored information about the theory, also funded Daszak’s virus research.

The Wuhan lab leak issue once again underscores how ‘fact-checkers’, media outlets and Silicon Valley giants shouldn’t be handed monopoly power to dictate reality.

By blacklisting content related to the lab leak theory up until just a few months ago, those entities may well have been complicit in facilitating one of the biggest cover-ups in modern history.

*  *  *

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In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 13:30

Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season

2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.

In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.

Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations. Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth. Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However, large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end. Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.

Another notable point: while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.

The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings. The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS. Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.

In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin - who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close - focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:

1. How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?
2. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?
3. How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.

Digging a little deeper

• 1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures? S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs. Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers. During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.
• 2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles. According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform. Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.

• 3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover? Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.

For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021. High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021. Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record (only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels

In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.

The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 13:00

Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade

By Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics

Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Start about the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.

Today, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.

#1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve

The more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.

Hence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.

#2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think

As recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be removed at a faster pace than warranted.

The US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.

While the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.

As regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect forward guidance in September and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.

#3 – China: From tightening to modest easing

While growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.

#4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory

Supply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.

Overall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a red-hot capex cycle will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 12:30

"Tear Up The Streets, Not The Planet" - Dodge To Unveil World's First Electric Muscle Car In 2024

Dodge, an American brand of automobiles and a division of Stellantis, used its time during Stellantis' EV Day to announce the world's first electric muscle car will hit the streets in 2024. 

Dodge CEO Tim Kuniskis was featured in a 5 min video, talking about the company's multi-decade muscle-car heritage. He said the company must adapt to the changing times as millennials become a more significant part of the overall US population with more spending power, adding this generation embraces electric cars the most. 

With that being said, Kuniskis revealed that Dodge has plans to sell the world's first electric muscle car in 2024. He said, "Tear Up the Streets … Not the Planet."

However, only a conceptual version of what the new electric muscle car would look like was revealed in the video. Even then, the lighting was too dark to capture what the overall design of the car would look like but certainly had some "retro-inspired styling cues, with a fastback roofline and blunt fascia that look vaguely reminiscent of the iconic 1969 Dodge Charger," said Autoblog.

The front of the concept car sports a unique lighting profile, with what looks to be an LED light bar that mimics the square-jawed shape of the classic muscle car but with the addition of a lighted emblem directly in the center. Several jump cuts showed some very wide-looking wheels with meaty tires ... and we're certain that all four of those tires go up in smoke at the end.

The car will be built on the STLA Large platform, one of four battery electric vehicle platforms announced by Stellantis, with a 0-to-60 time as low as 2 seconds and a range of up to 500 miles, Stellantis said. The automaker also hinted at a maximum power output of as high as 886 horsepower courtesy of a pair of 330-kilowatt electric motors.

-Autoblog

With Dodge engineers hitting the limit of what they can pump out of Hemi engines, it appears the company must embrace electrification for more horsepower to take on the Tesla Model S Plaid. 

The next Tesla killer? 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 12:00

Virgin Galactic Unity 22 Successfully Reaches Outer Space

Update (1140ET): VSS Unity has touched down at Spaceport America in Las Cruces, New Mexico. 

* * * 

Update (1125ET): Mothership Eve has dropped VSS Unity at around 50,000 feet. VSS Unity has now ignited its rocket-powered engines and is heading to outer space.

 The spacecraft is now Mach 3 50 seconds into flight. 

The spacecraft has reached 282,000 feet. 

The U.S. military and NASA define space as about 50 miles altitude or about 264,000 feet - the spacecraft reached 282,000 feet and was in space for about a minute. 

* * * 

Update (1104ET): Once the carrier plane VMS Eve, the mothership for SpaceShipTwo VSS Unity, reaches an altitude of about 50,000 feet, it will drop the VSS Unity that will use its rocket-powered engines to reach outer space. 

Flightradar24 data shows the VMS Eve and VSS Unity are around 42,000 feet. 

* * * 

Update (1045ET): According to Virgin Galactic's live feed, Unity22 has taken off for a high-altitude plane launch to the edge of space with a full crew, including billionaire co-founder Richard Branson. 

Track Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity live via Flightradar24. 

* * * 

Virgin Galactic is preparing to fly billionaire co-founder Richard Branson to space on the first crewed spaceflight above New Mexico on Sunday morning, possibly beating fellow billionaire and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

It’s a beautiful day to go to space. We’ve arrived at @Spaceport_NM. Get ready to watch LIVE at 7:30 am PT | 10:30 am ET | 3:30 pm BST https://t.co/PcvGTmA661 #Unity22 pic.twitter.com/4KjGPpjz0M

— Richard Branson (@richardbranson) July 11, 2021

Virgin Galactic tweeted "launch and live stream" of the Company's VSS Unity spaceship will begin around 1030 ET from the state's private Spaceport America. 

"Unity 22" mission will be the twenty-second flight test of their spacecraft, and the company's fourth crewed spaceflight. It will also be the first to carry a full crew.

The announcement comes a few weeks after the Federal Aviation Administration approved Virgin Galactic to fly customers to space. 

"After more than 16 years of research, engineering, and testing, Virgin Galactic stands at the vanguard of a new commercial space industry, which is set to open space to humankind and change the world for good," Branson said in a statement earlier this month. "I'm honored to help validate the journey our future astronauts will undertake and ensure we deliver the unique customer experience people expect from Virgin."

The Company, whose intentions are to become a leader in space tourism, will use the upcoming flight to focus on cabin and customer experience objectives, including:

• Evaluating the commercial customer cabin with a full crew, including the cabin environment, seat comfort, the weightless experience, and the views of Earth that the spaceship delivers — all to ensure every moment of the astronaut's journey maximizes the wonder and awe created by space travel
• Demonstrating the conditions for conducting human-tended research experiments
• Confirming the training program at Spaceport America supports the spaceflight experience

That crew will include two pilots and four mission specialists, including Branson. The Company said on the flight Branson will be "testing the private astronaut experience.

If successful, Branson's trip to space this morning would beat Bezos' planned trip to space on July 20 aboard a rocket and capsule via his own Company called Blue Origin. 

Watch Live: Virgin Galactic Unity 22 Spaceflight Livestream

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 11:44

Dear President Biden, You Need An Education, Starting With The Meaning Of "Free"

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let's discuss the meaning of "free" through the eyes of president Biden.

Free? Really?

Dear Mr. President, who pays for "Free College" and "Free Preschool"?

The fact is 12 years of education is no longer enough to compete in the 21st Century.

That’s why my Build Back Better Agenda will guarantee four additional years of public education for every person in America – two years of pre-school and two years of free community college.

— President Biden (@POTUS) July 7, 2021

If someone is paying by force of taxes then it isn't free. Only if "free preschool" comes from volunteers and charitable donations with no external costs is it truly free.

First-Time Homebuyer Act

Let's also discuss Biden's proposed "First Time Down Payments" for buying a home.

"The Downpayment Toward Equity Act of 2021," would create a grant program allowing states to provide first-timers with cash for down payments, closing costs or fees that result in lower mortgage rates.

The second bill, introduced in late April and dubbed the “First-Time Homebuyer Act,” would provide a tax credit of up to 10% of a home’s purchase price — or as much as $15,000 — to first-timers.

To access the tax credit, you won’t necessarily need to be a "first-time" buyer. You’ll be eligible if you haven’t owned or bought a home in the past three years.

It seems Biden and the Democrats have a peculiar definition of "First-Time". 

Why Things are Unaffordable 

A key reason many things are not affordable in government actions. "Free" down payments  artificially boost demand. 

We have had countless "affordable home" programs all of which failed for the same reason, free government programs inevitably have a huge cost. 

On top of affordable home programs, tariffs raise costs on steel, lumber, and  concrete. The lumber tariffs on Canadian lumber which Biden just increased are beyond insane. 

The cost of private medical insurance is crazy high as are costs anywhere where government interferes.  

George W. Bush signed the "Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005" making student debt uncancellable in bankruptcy. Guess what happend? 

Biden's solution of course is a "free" money student debt forgiveness program. 

Free Stimulus 

We have had three rounds of "free" stimulus to such an extent that it "pays" more for many millions of people to collect unemployment rather than work. 

That in turn drives up prices at restaurants and other places that have a hard time competing with "free". 

Tired of Paying for Free Stuff 

Is this an admission that not everyone is college material https://t.co/mnijiCsTCi

— Andy Swan (@AndySwan) July 9, 2021

Dear Mr. President many of us are tired of footing the bill for government-sponsored "free" stuff. 

To that end, I graciously volunteer my time for free (no cost to anyone else) to teach you the true meaning of "free" and "first-time" as well.

*  *  *

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 11:30

Commercial Landlords Are Throwing "Lavish Parties" To Sell NYC Office Space

At this point, commercial landlords will likely try anything to keep people in office buildings in New York City.

As we have noted over the last 18 months, New York has suffered an exodus not only as a result of the pandemic, but also of the ensuing utopian policies of the ever-oblivious Bill de Blasio, who has helped usher in a new wave of high taxes and crime that have forced individuals and businesses to pick up shop and leave the city in favor of places like Florida and Texas. 

And so commercial landlords are now resorting to throwing "lavish parties" to try and get people interesting in city real estate, the NY Post reports, as Manhattan grapples with a record-high 18.7 percent office availability rate.

At one party at Marx Realty’s 545 Madison Ave. location, "a contortionist in gold leggings twisted herself into pretzel shapes." Peking duck pancakes and vodka sno cones were even offered to those attending. Marx CEO Craig Deitelzweig told the Post that “People wanted to be together again” and that the party was full of "pent up energy and demand". 

The Post noted that the party featured "abundant alcohol" - with developers perhaps trying their hand at how casinos make their money - get you hammered and then move in for the kill. 

JKS Events founder Janeen Saltman, who has planned similar events, said: "We once had incredible scotch-pairing carts wheeled around for a 'Mad Men'-themed event."

Additionally, the report notes that commercial real estate services and investment firm CBRE recently hosted a small party at 441 Ninth Ave. and landlord Joseph Moinian also threw a party at 3 Columbus Circle. CBRE tristate CEO Mary Ann Tighe offered up a bit of a more realistic take, stating: “As nice as broker parties are, what I like most are closing dinners.”

The parties cost between $50,000 to $100,000 to set up, but Deitelzweig says there's no better way for people to "actually experience" the space up for lease.

Cushman & Wakefield dealmaker Tara Stacom was reminded of what doing business was like around 1500 Broadway in the 1980s. She said: “I had the idea of something for everybody. I asked everyone for their shoe sizes in advance. My team and I ended up handing out 800 pairs of Topsiders.”

“Business is booming well beyond the doomsayers. The recovery is already under way,” said CBRE global brokerage head Stephen B. Siegel.

Maybe if you keep repeating it, Stephen, it'll come true. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 11:00

Yields Plunge, Dollar Surges As The Reflation Trade Unravels

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Stumbles But Rallies Back

Last week, we discussed the market hit new highs with the index getting back to more extended and overbought conditions. To wit:

“The technical backdrop is not great. With the market back to 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, conviction weak, and investors extremely bullish, the market remains set up for additional weakness.

However, we are in the first two weeks of July, which tends to be bullishly biased. After increasing our equity exposure previously, we will give the market the benefit of seasonality for now.”

While market volatility did pick up this past week, the index held its breakout support levels and closed at a new high. Such keeps the bullish bias intact. However, as shown, the money flow signals are now back to more elevated levels, which will provide resistance to higher prices short term. 

We are still within the seasonally strong period of July, which tends to last through mid-month. However, August and September are typically more challenging for returns. As we stated last week:

“The bulls are indeed in charge of the markets currently, but the clock is ticking.”

The market is also weak from a breadth perspective. While large-cap stocks have done better as of late, the rest of the markets have not. I discuss this in more detail in Friday’s 3-minutes video.

The critical point, as noted in the video, is there has been a definite rotation out of the “reflation trade” (small, mid, emerging, and international markets) into the large-cap names (primarily technology), which is the “deflation trade.”

As we will discuss, the reflation trade ran well ahead of reality. Over the next couple of months, the test will be to see if earnings can support the surge in prices and valuations.

Yields Overbought

We will discuss the “yield warning” momentarily. However, in the short term, yields have gotten very overbought. We suspect we could see a retracement in yields short-term, but such will likely be an opportunity to increase bond exposure in portfolios as we head further into the year. 

As shown, previous overbought conditions (indicators get inverted concerning yields) lead to retracements to resistance. Currently, a retracement to 1.5% would be likely. Ultimately, a break below 1.25% will suggest much lower yields are coming. 

From a positioning standpoint, we increased our bond duration several weeks ago. However, while we want to increase our exposure eventually, we need to wait for the short-term overbought condition to reverse. 

Longer-term, as we will discuss next, we believe yields are potentially headed lower as economic growth and inflationary pressures wane.

Yield Plunge, Dollar Surge

In our #MacroView this week, we discuss the warning sign that yields are sending in more detail. However, importantly, the plunge in yields is suggestive that something in the market is becoming strained. As discussed in that article, when interest rise, and peak, such has corresponded with more negative market outcomes.

Is the current rise in rates signifying the next market downturn? Historically, sharp spikes in rates have done so by slowing economic growth more than expected. However, as we noted previously in our Commitment Of Traders report:

“The number of contracts net-long the 10-year Treasury already suggests the recent uptick in rates, while barely noticeable, maybe near its peak.”

Some of the pressure in bonds has come from the market bracing itself for some large auctions of new bonds next week. A lot of the action on Friday was the shift in focus to next week’s auctions. On Monday, there will be $38 billion in 10-year notes and $24 billion in 30-year bonds on Tuesday.

However, as noted by Zerohedge on Friday:

“But those who are betting on a continued rise in yields may get disappointed for one key technical reason. As Morgan Stanley’s derivatives strategist Chris Metli notes, CTAs – those mindless trend-followers who just ride on momentum waves until they crash, are still short bonds and at current yields have to buy $95bn notional of TY-equivalent duration over the next week.

As Morgan Stanley notes such ‘could continue the bond rally and put pressure on stocks as equity investors fear the bond market knows something they don’t about future growth prospects.'”

The dollar is also confirming the same.

The Dollar Is Confirming The Same

We specifically noted that the dollar was about to rise sharply. To wit:

“The one thing that always trips the market is what no one is paying attention to. For me, that risk lies with the US Dollar. As noted previously, everyone expects the dollar to continue to decline, and the falling dollar has been the tailwind for the emerging market, commodity, and equity risk-on trade. So, whatever causes the dollar to reverse will likely bring the equity market down with it.”

While the dollar rally is still young, there was a successful test of the “double bottom” with higher lows. The break above the 50- and 200-dma also suggests the rally is just getting started. A further rally in the dollar will get fueled by additional short-covering.

There is a significant difference between a “recovery” and an “expansion.” One is durable and sustainable; the other is not.

Dollar & Rates Are Warning Signs

Those expecting a significant surge in inflation will likely be disappointed for the one reason which seems to get mostly overlooked.

“If the economy were growing organically, which would create stronger rates of wage growth and inflation, then there would be no need for zero interest rates, continued monetary interventions by the Federal Reserve, or deficit spending from the Government.”

The obvious problem is that not all “spending” is equal. Pulling forward consumption through stimulus is indeed short-term inflationary but long-term deflationary. Moreover, since 1980, there has been a shift in the economy’s fiscal makeup from productive to non-productive investment. 

As we have pointed out previously, you can not overstate the impact of psychology on an economy’s shift to “deflation.” When the prevailing economic mood in a nation changes from optimism to pessimism, participants change. Creditors, debtors, investors, producers, and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation.

• Creditors become more conservative and slow their lending.

• Potential debtors become more conservative and borrow less or not at all.

• Investors get increasingly conservative, and they commit less money to debt investments.

• Producers become more conservative and reduce expansion plans.

• Consumers become more conservative, and save more, and spend less.

As we have been witnessing since the turn of the century, these behaviors reduce the velocity of money. Consequently, the decline in velocity puts downward pressure on prices. Moreover, given the massive increases in debt and deficits, the deflationary drag increases as the stimulus fades from the system.

Likely, the dollar and rates already figured this out.

The Reflation Trade Unravels

The importance of this analysis relates to a potential change in investor positioning in the market. To wit:

“The unraveling of the inflation/reflation trade has accelerated over the past week. US 10y bond yields continue to decline and have now broken a crucial technical level. Such could see the rally accelerate sharply, and with it, the continued unraveling of both cyclicals and commodities.” – Albert Edwards

Albert’s comment aligns with our views previously that such would likely be the case.

I believe that the pandemic recession allowed policymakers to cross the Rubicon of fiscal rectitude. They have reached a new land where existing monetary profligacy can now get coupled with fiscal debauchery.

In that respect, I am very much in the inflation/reflation camp. But I think it is a secular theme that will play out later in this cycle. The problem is the markets have been too early in betting on the reflation trade and have gotten set up for a huge disappointment.”

We have previously discussed the change in the deflationary credit impulse. But, importantly, the bond and dollar markets are now reflecting that deflation.

Does such mean the markets will crash tomorrow? No.

What is critical to recognize is that the market is well ahead of what reality will turn out to be. As such, when overly exuberant earnings and economic growth expectations fade, the justification supporting overpaying for assets will run into trouble.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 10:30

England Versus Italy - What The Stats Say

England have never come closer to ending what is by now 55 'years of hurt'. In beating Denmark, the Three Lions reached their first major final since their famous 1966 World Cup win. England fans have had to console themselves with the fading memories of that victory for far too long, as the list of painfully close calls and disastrous campaigns only got longer.

Considering the on-paper strength that England has regularly boasted over the years, fans were not always unjustified in the bitter disappointment they felt each time it all didn't quite come together at the right moment. But, as Statista's Martin Armstrong notes, the Euros 2020 tournament has been a different story though. Building on manager Southgate's semi final run at the 2018 World Cup, England have shown the patience and resilience - accompanied by the essential dose of good luck which so often eluded them in the past - to make it all the way to the final.

The team awaiting them in roday's Wembley final though, is an Italy side on an even more impressive run of form and results and will represent a challenge so far not encountered by England in this tournament.

As Statista's infographic shows, history is also firmly on Italy's side, especially in major tournaments where England have not yet managed to beat them in their three meetings on the biggest of stages.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Anything can happen in a final though, with both sides striving to write a new glorious chapter in their country's footballing history.

Finally, Goldman Sachs' model predicts a close call and sees a 58% chance of England winning a major tournament for the first time since 1966.

Their model predicts for the final: England 2—1 Italy (extra-time)

We wholeheartedly support this forecast!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 09:56

The Dollar's Final Crash

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Was Richard Nixon a real gold friend who understood the futility of tying a weakening dollar to gold which is the only currency that has survived in history?

So was Nixon actually the instigator of the movement to FreeGold?

I doubt it. He was just another desperate leader who was running out of real money and needed to create unlimited amounts of fiat money. Although his fatal decision to close the gold window was clearly the beginning of the end of the current monetary system.

But although the decision was fatal, Nixon was clearly not personally responsible. What the world saw in August 1971 was just another desperate leader who realised that he couldn’t stick to the monetary or fiscal disciplines necessary to maintain a sound economy and a sound currency.

In history, Nixon should be seen as the rule rather than the exception. Since every currency has been slaughtered throughout history, one particular leader will also be required to be the executor.

So in 1971, history had elected Tricky Dick to be the inevitable destroyer of the dollar.

I don’t quite know what the definition is of “suspend temporarily” but 50 years seems to be pushing the limit!

And as regards the strength of dollar goes, we all know what happened to the “strength of the currency”! Please see the illustration of the dollar collapse further on in the article.

FREEGOLD

In my article from December 2018 I talked about the advantage of FreeGold.

There are a few conditions that need to be fulfilled for gold to be an effective store of value. The principle of FreeGold best defines what this means. The website FOFOA (Friend Of a Friend of Another) and its predecessors have been pioneers in defining what FreeGold is:

These are the basic principles-

ALL PHYSICAL GOLD MUST BE:

• FREE from official money systems

• Owned FREE of all other claims

• FREELY traded

If all the above conditions are met, there would be no gold backed currencies, no ability to exchange currency for gold at central banks for a fixed parity and most importantly THERE WOULD BE NO PAPER GOLD OR OTHER GOLD DERIVATIVES.

Gold would neither be lent nor leveraged.

In fact, gold should not be tied to any currency. Gold has reigned supreme for 5,000 years whilst all its competitors in the form of fiat money have collapsed. Nixon probably understood this. The world’s current reserve currency could obviously not be shackled any more by gold. Because gold ignores the follies of megalomaniac sovereign leaders who want to cling on to power at any cost.

That is why governments have a Love – Hate relationship with gold.

ON THE ONE HAND – GOVERNMENTS LOVE GOLD

On the one hand gold signifies stability, wealth and the only currency that has survived in history and maintained its purchasing power. That is why governments around the world allegedly hold 34,000 tonnes of it currently valued at $2 trillion.

As Greenspan said a few years ago:

“If it (gold) is worthless and meaningless, why is everybody (central banks) still holding it?”

ON THE OTHER HAND – GOVERNMENTS HATE GOLD

On the other hand governments hate gold since it reveals their total mismanagement of the economy.

Because as soon as they run out of money, tying the currency to gold creates an extremely inconvenient road block that must be eliminated.

As gold is an inconvenient truth sayer, tying it to the currency prevents governments from holding on to power. So out with gold and sound money and in with credit expansion and fake money that temporarily buys votes.

Printing money and buying votes is not just a frivolous folly, but also an extremely costly exercise that without fail leads to the collapse of the economy and the currency.

DOLLAR AND OTHER CURRENCIES CRASHING INTO THE ABYSS

Just look at the picture below showing the crash of the dollar from the peak of the Matterhorn.

So far it is a “mere” 98% fall since 1971. But that is just the beginning. The next move of all the currencies will shock the world as they crash into the abyss.

The dollar and all currencies are likely to fall by another 98%+ from here as the world central banks desperately attempt to save the financial system.

Whether that means gold at $1,900 or $19,000 or much, much higher is all a function on the final debasement of the currencies rather than the rise of gold.

NO CURRENCY HAS SURVIVED IN HISTORY IN ITS ORIGINAL FORM

Every currency in history has disappeared or become worthless. There are at least 160 currencies that have died through hyperinflation but the real number is likely to be much higher.

The longest surviving currency today is the British Pound which has been in existence since 1694. At that time one pound bought 12 ounces of silver and today one pound buys 0.05 oz.

So although the pound has survived for over 300 years in name, it has lost over 99.99% of its purchasing power in that time.

BITCOIN – $10,000 NEXT?

For anyone who believes that crypto currencies will take over from gold, they should think again. There are around 10,000 cryptos today and over 1,000 have already died.

Bitcoin is of course the biggest. As I have said before, BTC is a wild binary bet. It can go to $1 million and it can go to Zero. Governments are unlikely to allow it to go to $1 million except for as a collector’s item without any practical use. They are more likely to force it to zero as it is banned by an increasing number of countries.

And anyone who thinks BTC will replace gold must think again. It might be a great speculative investment but it can never be a real store of wealth. And the extreme volatility makes it very unsuitable either as a reserve currency or as a wealth preservation investment.

We have seen $65,000 for BTC this year and now it is down 46% from there. Technically it looks like BTC could go to $10,000. If that will be the case, it will certainly not be suitable for widows or orphans

HISTORY – HISTORY – HISTORY

Again, history is our teacher. Most sovereign leaders never look at history. Their egos are too big to learn from the past. Instead they suffer from delusions of grandeur and always believe that things are different today just because they are in power.

But if they had one iota of humility, they would learn that there is very little new under the sun when it comes to the laws of nature and sound money.

They can call it by fancy names such as Keynesianism, QE or MMT. But embellishing a “criminal” action with a fancy name doesn’t make it legitimate. What governments are doing with money would put ordinary people in jail.

How can anyone call dollars or euros legal tender when most of it is created without the production of any goods or service.

Money fabricated by pressing a button by an index finger can never be worth more than the cost of moving the finger. Still these small finger movements are generating trillions of dollars, euros, yen, RMB and other currencies in an illusory creation of wealth.

WILL THERE BE A RESET?

I have at various times made my position clear on a reset.

I definitely don’t believe in Klaus Schwab and his cohorts taking over the world in a James Bond style movie. My view is that these self-important people will totally fail in any attempt to dominate world politics or the global economy.

The current monetary system has given the 0.1% elite illusory wealth and power. But that is a totally artificial and temporary situation. As the current currency system collapses so will their power and illusions.

Nor do I believe that governments and central banks will succeed in anything but a very temporary reset, if that. This kind of attempted reset could involve making debt disappear in a hocus pocus move and revaluing gold. Central bank digital currencies would also be introduced.

What they don’t realise is that Humpty Dumpty has already fallen and is irreparable. Any artificial and fake measures will not ever put Humpty together again.

So the only real reset that I see will be disorderly in a fall of the current monetary system.

Many of my previous articles cover the consequences in detail.

As I have outlined, it will be a very unpleasant but temporary period for the world as all the corruption and excesses of the last 100 years are unwound.

But the coming forest fire is essential to get rid of the deadwood so that new green shoots can create a sounder world economy and system.

GOLD (& SILVER) WILL BE A LIFE SAVER

As the graph above shows, gold is today as cheap in relation to US money supply as it was in 1970 when gold was $35 and in 2000 when gold was $300.

For financial survival, physical gold and silver will be life savers as bubble asset like stocks, bonds and property collapse in real terms. But due to the fragile financial system, precious metals must be held in private & safe vaults outside the system.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 09:20

Goldman: Here's Why The Shorts Will Have To Cover This Week

Last weekend, before the S&P broke out into a series of new all time highs despite Thursday's "harrowing" 1% dip, we shared Goldman's observations on why the market was entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year. Since then, the SPX has hit new all time highs 3 out of the past 5 trading days, and on 9 out of the last 11 even as sentiment substantially declined this week in global equities. For context, on Thursday we observed that the TICK Index logged one of the largest (top 4) selling pressure on the open on record.

For those asking what was behind Thursday's wobble, we mentioned previously listed the reason for the selloff, none of which were new. The general feeling was that equities needed to catch down to other asset classes.

But, as Goldman flow trader Scott Rubner correctly predicted on Friday, when he said that "I think local shorts will need to cover this am" only to see a new all time high in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, the selling is pretty much over "as long dealer gamma muted a larger potential drawdown." Another reason why Goldman expects stocks to keep rising: JPM kicks off the defacto new buyback window on Tuesday.

With that in mind, here is a mini thread from Rubner on “where we came from” and where we are going next.

1. GS Wedge: Since January 2019, Money Markets have seen +$1.707 Trillion inflows and Global Bonds have seen +$1.629 Trillion inflows, while Global Equities just +$154 Billion worth of inflows. GS wedge stands at $3.2 Trillion ~ aka the defensive buffer.

2. Cash on the sidelines is waiting for a dip and bought the Thursday dip.

3. 1H 2021 actually logged the 2nd largest money market inflows on record. 1H 2020 was the largest.

4. The cash pile from 2021 has not been reduced.

5. 1H 2021 Bond inflows seem significant? On pace for best year in a decade.

6. Q1 2021 saw the 3rd largest quarterly inflow on record, Q2 2021 saw the 7th largest on record.

7. Global Equity inflows are the biggest story of the year, but do not seem extreme at all when I zoom out.

Goldman's bottom Line: "We are still in the best two week period of the year, equity inflows are large, 401k are going back into stocks at a record pace. I think local shorts will need to cover."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 09:11

UK Scrambled Sub-Hunting Aircraft As Russian Submarine 'Stalked' Carrier In Mediterranean

UK media on Friday revealed another major military close encounter with a Russian vessel following the June 23 Black Sea warning shot incident - but this time in the Mediterranean where a Russian submarine was said to be "stalking" the Royal Navy's Carrier Strike Group in the waters.

The Telegraph on Friday broke the following based on defense sources:

A Russian submarine stalked the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group (CSG) prompting a helicopter hunt for the vessel, The Telegraph can reveal.

Merlin helicopters were scrambled to search for the Russian submarine when the group was passing through the eastern Mediterranean.

HMS Queen Elizabeth, Wikimedia Commons

The Royal Navy sub-hunting helicopters as part of their search and identification efforts dropped sonobuoys, specially designed listening and monitoring devices sunk beneath the water which can pick up submarine movements.

The report doesn't identify which specific Russian sub the UK military was on the lookout for, only that it was likely a diesel-electric Kilo-Class submarine from the Black Sea fleet. It was further suggested there was high confidence it was trailing British vessels within the days after the prior Black Sea incident. The sub was said to be stalking the HMS Queen Elizabeth and accompanying strike group vessels.

"The hunt for the submarine took place four days after the confrontation in the Black Sea between HMS Defender, a Type-45 air defence ship, and Russian forces" - The Telegraph report indicates, however, the information is only just now being revealed at the end of this week.

Merlin sub-hunting helicopter, Royal Navy vile image

For years Russia's navy and aerial forces have had a significant presence in the eastern Mediterranean, especially off Syria's coast where the Russian naval base at Tartus is located.

More details on the Royal Navy's scrambling a response effort from The Telegraph report are as follows: 

There are seven such helicopters deployed with the group, and these would likely have been operating in coordination with other anti-submarine assets. These include the two Type-23 frigates HMS Kent and HMS Richmond and the Royal Navy’s deployed hunter-killer submarine, thought to be HMS Astute or HMS Ambush.

While the MoD refused to confirm the incident, understood to have occurred on June 27, it said "robust measures" were in place to protect the CSG, which is on its first operational deployment.    

Source: The Telegraph

HMS Queen Elizabeth and its escort ships are now out of Mediterranean waters after traversing the Suez Canal, and about to enter the Indian Ocean as part of an eight month deployment.

Currently, NATO and allied vessels continue a heavy presence in the Black Sea, especially given the ongoing Sea Breeze 2021 exercises, which involve Ukraine's military participation as well. This sets the stage for potentially more dangerous close encounters with Russia's military, which has warned it will fire upon any vessel breaching its territorial waters.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 08:45

Still More Green Hypocrisy In The EU, This Time Hydrogen

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let's discuss the meaning of "Green" EU style.

Hooray More Green Energy!

The EU is cheering a new hydrogen project at a refinery in Germany. 

The plant will be built by Shell and ITM power and will be able to produce about 1,300 tonnes of hydrogen per year, which can be fully integrated into the refinery processes, such as for the desulphurisation of conventional fuels. It will be the world's largest hydrogen electrolyser. 

Tudor Constantinescu, Principal Advisor, DG ENER at the European Commission stressed the the contribution of green hydrogen to the Energy Union objectives, saying: "Renewable electricity can support decarbonisation not only of the power sector, but, through sectoral integration also of other carbon intensive industries, such as refining. Green Hydrogen is a key enabler in this process, contributing to the Energy Union objectives both in terms of emissions reductions and increased renewables share."

Ten Times the Hydrogen, Ten Times the Cost?

Euractive has some interesting details of the undertaking, allegedly Set to Multiply Capacity tenfold by 2024.

The 10 MW electrolyser, while already Europe’s largest of its kind, is a pilot project for grander ambitions.

If the pilot works out well, the partnership around Shell wants to add another 100 MW of electrolysis capacity which would complete construction in 2024. That would then be the largest electrolyser in the world.

Yet the pilot project depended on financing by the FCH JU at a 50% rate, meaning that the business case for a project ten times larger without public funding would be questionable at best.

Whether those ambitions come to fruition will therefore depend on the carbon price and the amount of additional funding available, which could come from either the EU or Germany.

It is currently unclear whether the FCH JU will again step in and provide funding as it did for the pilot project, as the application review is ongoing, a source told EURACTIV.

European Hydrogen Greenwashing

Eurointelligence looked into the details, and found still more amusing details.

We noted a strange description of how it will work in a Euractiv article sponsored by the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking, a public-private partnership between the EU and the European hydrogen lobby. According to the article, the new plant will produce around 1300 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, provided sufficient amounts of renewable energy are available.

If they are not, the alternative will be to used natural gas to produce the hydrogen. And funnily enough, hydrogen produced by the new electrolyser will be used to refine petroleum at Chemicals Park Rheinland, Germany’s largest refinery.

We thought it was strange that Laschet would tout a renewable project given his backing for coal-fired power plants and general aversion to all things green. But we wonder now whether Refhyne will be green after all. 

We think it is plausible that the EU’s hydrogen development will wind up being dependent on Russian gas.

The EU's Stunning Green Hypocrisy

With that revealed, let's recap my previous report, The EU's Stunning Green Hypocrisy, At Least Trump Was Honest About Targets

If you took Green targets seriously, you would have to reform the Common Agricultural Policy. But the EU failed to do precisely that when they had an opportunity last year. Instead, the EU resorts to cheating. 

The European Commission classifies investment in terms of 0%, 40% and 100% green content, and rounds up the numbers to the next higher target. So 1% becomes 40%. 41% becomes 100%.

When the mendacity of the EU’s climate policy becomes apparent, the centre will not only have lost the victims of the economic crisis, but an entire generation of young voters.

This is the thing with smoke and mirrors: when the smoke lifts, you see clearly.

Too Strict?!

The above snips were also courtesy of Eurointelligence. 

Here's another amusing kicker: It also noted "the most recent set of [rounding up] guidelines, published in 2019, were deemed too strict by some member states and industry lobbyists."

Yes indeed. Clearly there is a need to round 1% up to 49% and 50% up to 120% or whatever.

EU Tries to Convince Trading Partners Its Carbon Tax is Not a Tax

Finally, please consider EU Tries to Convince Trading Partners Its Carbon Tax is Not a Tax.

Recap

This new "Green" hydrogen project needs a 50% subsidy, likely depends on Russian natural gas, and will be used to refine oil.

This we call "Green".

EU hypocrisy on Green Energy is endless.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 08:10

Pubs In England Will Sell 13 Million Pints During The Euros Final, Despite "Disappointing" COVID Restrictions

With Covid restrictions still in the process of being lifted, one might guess that the sales forecast for restaurants and pubs for Sunday's Euro 2020 soccer championship between Italy and England could be uncertain.

But that doesn't seem to be the case, according to a new report in The Guardian, which estimates that pubs in England will sell 13 million pints on the day of the final. However, the report still notes that "strict rules" in place, for many pubs, means that hosting the finals "will not be enough to rescue their struggling finances."

While pub crowds are usually higher by about 200% to 300% on match days, Covid restrictions have meant that sales for the Euro 2020 have only been up about 60% on match days, the report says. 

Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of industry trade body UKHospitality, said: “We are seeing an uplift in drinks sales on match days but because of capacity constraints it is nowhere near as much as it would usually be.”

For example, one pub in Norwich will be "full" - but the owner notes that this only means 30 customers. The owner said: “We are obviously fully booked. I’ve been turning away people for weeks who want to watch the football but social distancing and the need to be seated limits our capacity. I think everybody’s grateful to be trading again but it’s still very difficult.”

Still, The British Beer and Pub Association says 13 million pints will be sold on Sunday and 7.1 million will be sold during the match itself. Without Covid restrictions, that number would be likely closer to 17 million, the report says. 

“It has brought people together though and pubs are the next best thing to being there,” one owner said, also commenting he was disappointed about the restrictions and could have "taken a lot more" customers. 

But make no mistake about it: if England wins the Euro, restrictions may not be able to keep the crowd in check. Another pub owner stated: “Publicans have worked incredibly hard to abide by the rules and regulations, but whatever the rules are, people will sing and celebrate if England win.” 

“Our main tactic has been to inform customers what is expected when they arrive, not after they have had a few,” Alistair Skitt, who runs the Lord High Admiral pub in Plymouth said. “Our staff make it very clear Covid rules are still being enforced: that customers have to wear masks when they go to the toilet, and there should be no excessive shouting and screaming at the screen, which is very difficult to enforce as I’m sure you can imagine.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 07:35

Assange To Be "Moved Around" Sine Die

Authored by Ray McGovern via AntiWar.com,

Very bad news for those who still care about freedom of the press and what the fate of Julian Assange means for the artifact-First Amendment added to the US Constitution 240 years ago. The UK High Court just announced it will hear the US appeal of a lower court decision against extraditing Julian Assange. Godot is likely to arrive before the US/UK finish the legal pantomime denying Assange his freedom.

The High Court decision solidifies Britain’s status as a US vassal state – the 800-year legacy of the Magna Carta be damned. Giving obsequious hypocrisy a bad name, the High Court’s announcement comes a week and half after the prime witness for the latest indictment of Assange recanted his testimony.

It should come as no surprise that British "Justice" officials are following the detailed "Washington Playbook" approach that was exposed by WikiLeaks itself in Feb. 2012.

Some readers may recall that WikiLeaks-revealed confidential emails from the US private intelligence firm Stratfor mentioned that the US already had a secret indictment against the WikiLeaks founder. Bad enough.

Inspector Javert

What also showed up in the Stratfor emails was the unrelenting, Inspector-Javert-type approach taken by one Fred Burton, Stratfor’s Vice-President for Counterterrorism and Corporate Security. (Burton had been Deputy Chief of the Department of State’s counterterrorism division for the Diplomatic Security Service.)

Here’s Javert – I mean Burton:

"Move him [Assange] from country to country to face charges for the next 25 years. But seize everything he and his family own, to include every person linked to Wiki." [my comment: "country to country", or – equally effective – court to court]

"Pursue conspiracy and political terrorism charges and declassify the death of a source, someone which could link to Wiki."

"Assange is a peacenik. He needs his head dunked in a full toilet bowl at Gitmo."

“Take down the money. Go after his infrastructure. The tools we are using to nail and de-construct Wiki are the same tools used to dismantle and track al-Qaeda."

"Bankrupt the arsehole first; ruin his life. Give him 7-12 years for conspiracy."

"Assange is going to make a nice bride in prison. Screw the terrorist. He’ll be eating cat food forever... extradition to the US is more and more likely."

Published by WikiLeaks in 2012: Correspondence from private security contractor Stratfor on how to handle arrest of Julian #Assange

"Pile on. Move him from country to country to face various charges for the next 25 years.." https://t.co/8gAOsF4dGQ pic.twitter.com/iUO4IkdKEL

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) July 8, 2021

Nice people – once sworn under oath "to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic". Since comparisons are invidious, apologies to "Javert" and Victor Hugo.

Meanwhile Back at Belmarsh

It is not clear whether the likes of Fred Burton have been able to dictate the menu for Julian Assange (but who would be surprised?). What is clear is that, unless a major grassroots campaign can gather more steam, and soon, Julian is likely to be moved from court to court, prison to prison – all under color of law – until they destroy what is left of him. It is a sad pantomime, a mockery of justice. Talk about Les Miserables!

As UN Rapporteur for Torture Nils Melzer has pointed out, Julian Assange is being subjected to psychological torture – in full view of the rest of the world. And, as reprehensible as this crime is – still more is at stake for democracies, which cannot exist without a free media.

Last Saturday Julian Assange "celebrated" his 50th birthday in London’s high-security Belmarsh Prison. I was asked to record a message to be loud-speakered at the demonstration in support of Julian before the prison that day. Here is the recording. For those lacking appreciation for my singing, the 8-minute talk is transcribed here.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/11/2021 - 07:00