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Los sesgos nos llevan a ignorar parte de la realidad y, en algunos casos, conducen a la discriminación en la selección y promoción laboral, una marginación a la que tampoco es ajena la inteligencia artificial. Leer

Episode #356: Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group, “The Wildcard Is Inflation and Whether It’s Truly Transitory”               Guest: Jim Paulsen is Chief Investment Strategist of The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the investment committee, authors market and economic commentary, and works with the Leuthold investment team […]

The post Episode #356: Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group, “The Wildcard Is Inflation and Whether It’s Truly Transitory” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog.

Cuando la última glaciación llegó a su fin, el nivel del mar subió de media un metro por siglo, pero en ocasiones llegó a subir nada menos que cuatro metros por siglo en los intervalos en los que los glaciares se derretían más rápidamente.

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Antes de comenzar otra cosita. Los expertos dicen que los bancos, si suben los tipos de interés se verán muy beneficiados.

En mi opinión de pequeño, muy pequeño pitufo financiero de andar por casa, los bancos, lo que necesitan es que la economía vaya bien. Si la economía va mal, el hecho de que suban los tipos de interés no me va a compensar los impagos y todos los rollos negativos que van detrás.

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Oportunidad Bajista en PHM (Pharma Mar)

PHM (Pharma Mar) semanal. Aparece una oportunidad bajista en PHM, se activaría si PHM hace un mínimo igual o menor a 70,59 (Es decir un pelín pelón por debajo de los mínimos de HOY). El stop inicial, en mi opinión, debería estar en un precio igual o mayor a 83,39 (Es decir por encima de los máximos del bendito mes de Septiembre que ya ha rematado)…..

….La operación tiene tres posibles salidas: Si toca el  objetivo para cerrar todo en  50,07, o importante, si antes  los números del ibex 35 se ponen por debajo de 110 o si toca el stop inicial.

Lógicamente conviene tener un stop de seguimiento por si, en el caso de que se active, antes de llegar al objetivo, se de la vuelta o lo que sea.

En el caso alcista, si los números del índice se ponen a la contra, la regla es mantener mientras respete lo que controla al valor.

Pero en el caso bajista, como acabo de mencionar es conveniente cerrar esa posición a la baja si el ibex 35 pone sus números por debajo de 110.

El ibex 35 ya lleva más de medio año con números colorados y de momento, la cosa no cambia.

Esta acción, PHM terminó el año pasado, el 2020, en la lista de las frutejas pochejas y complejas de este bendito ibex 35.

En lo que va de año, ha permanecido todo el tiempo en esa lista, incluso, durante unos meses ha estado en el primer puesto.

Antes de continuar, la lista actual de las frutejas complejas y pochejas de este bendito ibex 35, todo puede cambiar, por eso conviene revisar la situación cada cierto tiempo:

SLR PHM SGRE ELE IBE

Volviendo al tema PHM, mencionar que si rompe los mínimos de agosto (68,50) , cosa que si se activa la operación es bastante probable, aparecería un precio en 50,53.

Claro que, si se activa la operación es fácil que rompa los mínimos de Agosto, y si rompe los mínimos de Agosto, no le debería costar demasiado terminar rompiendo los mínimos de Diciembre del bendito año pasado, 2020, hablo de los 66,27.

Y esto último, tendría como consecuencia la aparición de un segundo precio por debajo, hablo del 38,45.

Por otro lado, PHM, en los máximos de Septiembre de este año, ha rebotado justo hasta un mínimo legal que está por confirmar, de confirmarse, y tiene papeletas, entonces habría que colocarle a esos máximos un círculo azul celeste como el que tiene colocado en el último rebote mínimo legal que hizo en abril de este bendito 2021.

La situación de PHM es de debilidad crónica, de momento, y eso dentro de un ibex 35 que lleva ya 7 meses con números rojos en la revisión mensual.

Además, ahora mismo, es el único de toda la fruteja pocheja, que presenta una oportunidad de entrada a la baja.

Como diría un experto con voz aflautada, una oportunidad en corto.

El otro día, escuché un vídeo (La mayoría se pueden escuchar como si fueran la radio, no hace falta estar ahí mirando nada), de la gestora Cobas, en donde explicaban el porque ellos nunca se ponían cortos.

Hace unas semanas, escuché el último vídeo de esa misma gestora, tras el rollete de los primeros 10 o 15 minutos, fui a lo interesante, que estaba a partir de 1 hora y 20 minutos, me parece.

Lo interesante es la parte de las preguntiñas que hacen los afortunados inversores.

El año pasado, me parece que fue, aluciné cuando el tipo que lleva el tema, salió diciendo que a lo largo de su carrera las compañías que se le habían ido a cero patatero eran 60 o 70.

Lo contó y se quedó tan pancho.

Este mismo tipo, en el vídeo que escuché hace unas semanas, en la parte de las preguntas, contestó con una cosa que me volvió a dejar alucinado.

Vino a decir, que un error suyo, era sólo cuando el valor caía un 90%.

¡Toma ya!.

Volviendo al vídeo de porque no hacían cortos, mirar, en mi opinión personal y discutible, tu puedes hacer muchas burradas sólo al alza e ir tirando, o parecer que vas tirando, mientras en teoría el largo plazo te ayuda o algo así.

El tema es que puedes hacer todo tipo de burradas al alza y durante un tiempo, puede ir colando.

Pero si haces eso mismo a la baja, el mercado te va a crucificar.

Si no tienes una salida, en una posición bajista, el mercado te puede destruir totalmente.

Esto pone de relieve la suma importancia de tener una salida clara en cualquier tipo de operación que se haga.

Y es sumamente aconsejable tener detrás un plan de gestión monetaria.

Una persona que se preocupe por sus monedas, siempre tendrá una salida por algún lado y siempre tendrá una gestión monetaria detrás.

El cuento cambia si juegas con el dinero de los demás, sin poner ni un pavito tuyo (el 99% en la pequeña pecera financiera Española), o diciendo en voz alta y clara, que tu pones tu dinero, lo que en teoría te distingue de los demás, pero en la práctica, como TODOS los que forman parte de esa pequeña minoría (alrededor del 1%), se callan como zorritos sobre la cantidad que ponen, todos sus inversores tienen que IMAGINARSE a cuanto asciende esa supuesta alineación de intereses.

En España esto continúa sin regularse.

Partiendo de la base de que el DINERO HABLA POR TI, si tu no pones ni un pavo en tu propio fondo o pregonas a los cuatro viento que si que lo haces y te callas la boca respecto a la cantidad que ponen, ¿qué está hablando de ti cualquiera de esas dos actitudes?.

 Leer

Today’s listener mailbag is presented by Naviplan by Invest Cloud: Michael and I dive back into the mailbag to go through a bunch of listener questions with a little help from our friend Tony Stich. If you have a question for the show, email us at animalspiritspod@gmail.com. We discuss: Why do we talk about bonds in terms of yield and stocks in terms of price? Do commodities belong as a long-term holding in a portfol...

 

El actor William Shatner, de 90 años, se convertirá el 12 de octubre en la persona de mayor edad que haya viajado al espacio. Leer

This is a rare email and opportunity not 1 in 1000 investors get access to.

You’re about to get a first-hand account from an absolute mining legend.

He has created billions of dollars in shareholder value. And his companies have created tens of thousands of jobs.

But before this mining legend accomplished all that…

Rio Tinto was in a predicament.

There was an operating mine that produced 50% gold and 50% silver.

The problem was the mine got ZERO value for the silver production.

Rio Tinto hired a well-respected banking firm to figure out how to unlock value from the silver portion of the production that was getting no value from the market.

The bankers concluded no royalty could be made to unlock value that would be attributable to the owners.

However, the alone accountant read the banking report to Rio Tinto and came up with a novel idea in the middle of the night.

He came up with the plan to create a new entity to put a STREAM on the silver production.

• That was the inception of a $21 Billion MCAP company called Wheaton Precious Metals.

The accountant that pulled off the first streaming transaction and built an empire around that financing model eventually became very well decorated:

• The chair of the World Gold Council,
• a Canadian Hall of Fame Member, and
• The founder of GoldCorp which he merged with Newmont to become the world’s largest gold producer.

Ian Telfer is to Gold Mining what Elon Musk is to Cars

Ian telfer shared how it was no easy endeavor.

Even the biggest silver bugs in the world at the time, like Eric Sprott, didn’t quite understand the streaming model nor did they think it would work.

Fast forward 6 years from the inception of SilverWheaton, and Eric Sprott’s #1 silver stock was Silver Wheaton (Called Wheaton Precious Metals today).

For the first time ever, Ian Telfer shares why he is backing one particular gold stock…

Not just financially but with his time and effort.

Because he believes it will be the next big company in the precious metal Royalty and Streaming sector.

This time, Ian won’t have to wait 6 years to get Eric Sprott onboard…

He has already backed the deal alongside his former partner at Sprott, Rick Rule.

• In addition to those three titans, Jimmy Lee, Rob McEwen, Doug Casey, and Warren Gilman have all written large checks and backed this superb management team.

In this exclusive 1 on 1 video I just recorded with him…

Ian Telfer shares in this video the trials and tribulations in building both GoldCorp and Wheaton Precious Metals.  What he thinks will happen next with the price of gold and what he is doing with his own money.

Do your portfolio a favor and watch this video, it will definitely be worth your while to learn from one of the living legends in the game, Ian Telfer.

Click here to watch the exclusive interview

Regards,

Marin Katusa

The post Before Market Open… appeared first on Katusa Research.

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by NaviPlan by InvestCloud On today’s show Ben and I answer listener questions on: How much cash should you keep on hand? When to refinance Do commodities have a place in your portfolio? How to get a job at an RIA, and much more Listen here: Links: Why do we need inflation? Three fund portfolio How to become a financial advisor XYPlanning Network Charts Contact us at ...

The post Animal Spirits: Listener Mailbag appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) continued its upward momentum, outperforming the S&P 500 and rising by approximately 69.2% compared to the S&P’s gain of about 33.3% since the start of 2020. The cloud services company saw positive second-quarter results, and long-term 13F metrics between 2004 and 2021 suggest that Salesforce’s investment potential remains strong.

Salesforce is a cloud-based software company and global specialist in customer relationship management (CRM). It provides CRM services and a suite of applications that focus on customer service, marketing automation, analytics, and application development. Salesforce’s business model has become more attractive during the coronavirus pandemic by allowing customers to use their cloud technology for improved communication and information-sharing during a time of increased telework and remote collaboration. In addition to Salesforce’s 2021 acquisition of Slack Technologies, Inc. that complemented its communication services, Salesforce also recently held its annual Dreamforce conference. The conference focused on helping companies find solutions to problems related to the pandemic and highlighted the importance of digital headquarters.

Hedge Funds Are Buying

Hedge funds and institutions were increasing shares in their portfolios. The aggregate 13F shares held by hedge funds increased to about 185.5 million from 174.1 million. Of the hedge funds, 69 created new positions, 176 added to an existing one, 28 exited, and 110 reduced their stakes. Overall, institutions increased their aggregate holdings by about 1.9% to approximately 713.3 million from 700.2 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Positive Long-term Projections

Analysts estimate that earnings will fall slightly by January of 2022 and anticipate a subsequent rise by 2023 and 2024 of approximately 4.7% and 20.7%, respectively. These year-over-year changes would bring earnings to $4.62 per share by 2023 and $5.57 by 2024. Revenue estimates are very encouraging, with initial revenue figures for January 2022 of $26.3 billion, followed by more year-over-year estimated increases that would bring revenue to $37.0 billion by 2024, up from $31.8 in 2023.

(WhaleWisdom)

Analysts See Potential

Analysts are optimistic about the stock and raising price targets. Mizuho Financial Group analyst Gregg Moskowitz raised the firm’s price target to $320 from $300 and kept a Buy rating, citing the confidence level of Salesforce’s management team and the quality of sales opportunities. Patrick Walravens of JMP Securities took a positive view of the integration of Slack into Salesforce and raised the price target to $325 from $320, maintaining an Outperform rating. Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin kept an Overweight rating on the stock, raising its price target to $340 from $325. Piper Sandler Companies’ Brent Bracelin raised the company’s price target generously to $365 from $280 and shared confidence in a multi-year period of profit expansion and sustained growth.

Favorable Outlook

Salesforce’s history of growth and future multi-year estimates are encouraging for investors. The cloud services company continues to thrive through the pandemic and gain momentum. Analysts’ ratings and price targets speak to the company’s increased value and growth potential.

Los modelos de negocio digitales que caracterizan a las 'start up' permiten mantener bajos costes, pero cada vez son más las compañías nativas digitales que optan por abrir espacios físicos para conectar con los clientes. Leer

Tres valores del EuroStoxx50 y otros tres del Dow Jones se anotan entre un 700% y un 1.310% en los últimos diez años. Las firmas creen que su escalada continuará y prevén que suban entre un 18% y un 30% a doce meses. Leer

Hello again. Here’s my latest quarterly portfolio review. After lagging behind global markets in the first quarter, I was a little ahead in both the second and the third. Year-to-date, both my portfolio and the global market tracker I benchmark against are up around 12.5%. Portfolio / Benchmark Q3 2021 Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Annualised…

Read the full article

The post Q3 2021: Quality Fights Back appeared first on IT Investor.

Buenas ScaryMoney y bienvenido al foro!
Muchas gracias por el aviso, me quiere sonar que el año pasado habían anunciado que empezarían a cobrarlas pero deben de haberlo retrasado hasta hace poco, como parecen indicar en este hilo de Rankia.

Estas cosas siempre son una faena pero al menos existen brokers alternativos donde poder llevarse los fondos sin tener que abonar comisiones de custodia.
Me apunto revisar si aplica a todos los fondos indexados para actualizarlo en el hilo principal
Un saludo

Estadísticas: Publicado por Manu — 04 Oct 2021, 08:00

When I talk about climate change and its impact on investments, I tend to observe more scepticism in the United States, Australia, and the Middle East than in Europe. There is obviously a pattern here in the acceptance of climate change and its impact on the planet and financial markets across different regions because, well, the United States, Australia, and the Middle East are three regions with an economy that depends heavily on the production and export of fossil fuels.

Yet, if you go and ask the leading finance professionals in academia, public and international organisations, and private organisations like think tanks the picture changes significantly. There is enormous consensus amongst the people who are at the cutting edge of research in climate finance. Johannes Ströbel and Jeffrey Wurgler from NYU asked 861 top finance professionals about their attitudes on climate change and how it impacts financial markets. Most notably, while 55% of respondents of this survey were academics, 36% were lead economists at private institutions, and 9% at public institutions like the World Bank or the IMF. And only about half of the respondents worked in climate finance, while the other half were outside observers of the field and had no personal research interest in the relationship between climate change and financial markets.

So, what do these experts on financial markets think about climate change? The responses are remarkably similar across regions and professions. Asked about the most important climate-related risk in the next 5 years, all of them came up with regulatory risks as the most important ones. No matter if you asked academics or private-sector economists, people in North America, Europe, or Asia, people who worked in climate finance or not, they all said regulatory changes like the introduction of a carbon tax are key risks for the next 5 years. Looking further ahead, there is also a consensus that over the next 30 years, physical climate change poses the biggest risk for markets and investments.

Furthermore, there is a clear consensus that these risks are currently not priced correctly in financial markets. While almost no one believes that climate risks are overpriced in stock markets at the moment (the share of respondents who believe this is generally less than 3% in each group), about three times as many experts think that climate risks are not priced enough rather than priced correctly. Also, by a margin of two to one, experts generally think that climate risks can be captured by investors in both good and bad economic times compared to good economic times only. In other words, there is a strong consensus that climate risks are underpriced at the moment, which means that active managers who can identify these risks and their impact on stocks can create additional performance, both in good and bad economic times.

Are climate risks priced correctly in stock markets?

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Source: Ströbel and Wurgler (2021)

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They found the mechanisms of touch and temperature sensitivity

Dwindling investment in oil, gas and coal mean high prices are here to stay