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In December, it will be 5 years since I started this blog.

In the last 5 years, my views have been tested and have evolved.

I have been investing since the late ’90s, but a bulk of my knowledge has been accrued over the last 5 years as a result of writing and experience.

I thought it would be a good idea to write down the things that I have learned about investing in the last 5 years.

• You should measure your performance and write down what you think.

The process of writing about my personal investments have been eye opening. I recommend that everyone does this. Even if you don’t do it publicly on a blog, at least do it personally.

I have been following markets and investing since the late 1990’s, but it was only until 2016 that I started actually writing everything down and rigorously measuring my performance.

The key advantage of this is that you cannot lie to yourself, which the brain constantly does.

Sometimes, I’ll read through an old post and not even remember that I thought a particular thing – particularly things that I was wrong about. When it’s in writing and you read it, you have to confront your thesis and rigorously measure whether that opinion was correct.

The brain has a funny way of only remembering the wins and forgetting the losses and bad calls.

Writing will make you a better investor because it will force you to be honest with yourself. Your brain is constantly trying to fool you to protect your ego. Writing circumvents this.

• Many quantitative value strategies amount to the small cap value factor, which can be accessed cheaply via an ETF like $SLYV or $VBR. For the more aggressive, there are strategies like $QVAL and $DEEP.

I started this blog after spending years reading about quantitative value investing and spending a lot of time back testing various value-oriented stock screens.

I set out to implement my own version of Ben Graham’s preferred stock screen: low P/E and low debt/equity investing. I added my own twists on this and some qualitative views.

What I failed to accept was that the out-performance of value stock screens amounts to owning a small cap value fund. I would have been better off buying Vanguard’s small cap value ETF and would have had exposure to the same factor.

In fact, the performance of Vanguard’s small cap value fund winds up outperforming many many of the screens I was testing. More importantly, buying & holding a small cap value fund is less prone to the kind of behavioral errors you’ll experience by actually managing a 20-30 cheap stock portfolio.

If I simply owned a small value ETF, I would have had exposure to statistical cheapness but I wouldn’t have struggled as much with the implementation. Getting into the depths of some of these junky companies led to behavioral errors. I sold a Florida insurer because a hurricane was imminent even though the losses were already priced in. I sold GameStop because the private equity deal fell through. I made many mistakes because I was too in the weeds.

The nice thing about an ETF is that you can just let the strategy work. Getting into the weeds actually detracted from my performance and led to behavioral errors. An ETF can simply be put on a shelf for years and the result will be much the same.

The big small value ETF’s like VBR and SLYV give exposure to the factor. Things like QVAL and DEEP are higher octane.

• You can’t time the market.

I took Warren Buffett’s quote ‘be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ to heart. Reduce risk when markets are hot. Get in on risk when markets aren’t frothy.

I figured this could be accomplished with two metrics: market cap/GDP and the yield curve. Market cap/GDP tells you how overvalued the market is. The yield curve is a warning sign that a recession is imminent.

This didn’t work for me. My conclusion is that the market cannot be timed and doing so leads to behavioral errors.

It’s easy to say “something unprecedented happened” and that’s why this didn’t work. Unfortunately, something unprecedented is always happening in markets and is a part of the game. Every method that has a perfect track record will stop working once investors know about it and try to implement it.

Trying to find this solution is seductive, but it is folly.

• Factor exposure is critical to dissecting returns.

Often, when you hear about a great investor, you can dissect their returns by analyzing their factor exposure and their asset allocation.

For instance, many of the heroes of the 2000’s was simply long small cap value. Many of the heroes of the 2010’s was simply long large cap growth.

The superstars will take credit for their out-performance, but I don’t believe it’s real. They were simply in the right place at the right time. They ought to get some credit for being in the right place at the right time, but not as much as we give them.

• Asset allocation should be the focus for most investors.

When I started this blog, I thought only asset allocation that made sense was 100% stocks – particularly statistically cheap stocks. I no longer think that this is true.

Not everyone is comfortable with lost decades and a 50% drawdown every 15 years, for instance. That’s the track record of stocks.

This blog represented money I set aside to buy cheap stocks. The rest of my money was in a real soup of random ETF’s and stocks – most of which had a value focus.

I set out in 2018 to organize ‘the rest’ of my money into something more consistent and systematic. This turned out to be a critical exercise.

That journey led me to develop the weird portfolio. I’m lucky that I developed this approach going into 2020. For this allocation, I didn’t allow myself to get active – to pick and choose which assets would outperform.

This asset allocation would up out-performing the account that I track on this blog – which is my ‘active’ money.

These asset allocation decisions are critical for investors and can help generate a more consistent rate of return more attuned to their needs.

Everyone needs to figure out what asset allocation they are comfortable with and will meet their needs, but I think that this particular decision is more critical than I ever imagined.

• Looking for moats & quality is not a waste of time.

5 years ago, I thought that buying statistical bargains was the only option. I now think that a quantitative approach is best implemented through an ETF.

Meanwhile, I scoffed at people who thought they could identify ‘quality’ and I thought that they were deluding themselves.

Sure, it’s quality now, but it will just mean revert and you’re crazy to think you can find a good company.

These days, when buying individual stocks, I think that it is important to find quality companies.

I was confronted with this through my own errors buying individual value situations. Because I was always waiting for the other shoe to drop with the economy, I would sell cheap companies as soon as they experienced trouble.

The stocks I bought were not ‘long term’ situations and I intuitively understood this.

The problem is – if it’s not a long-term situation – you need to get the timing right. I could never quite get that timing right.

Rather than completely give up on this ‘active’ account that I track on the blog, I decided to adjust my approach. I’m still looking for value, but I’m looking for value situations that I would be comfortable holding for the long term.

The only way I’ll be able to hold a company through a drawdown is if I actually believe the firm. What do you do with an airline or steel company when it looks like the economy is about to collapse? Tough question. Meanwhile, owning something with a moat – a defense contractor like General Dynamics – is something I’m actually capable of doing.

When buying individual stocks, I want to own the sort of firm that I would be comfortable holding for a very long time.

I used to think this was an impossible pursuit, but the more I’ve read and experienced with stocks the more I have changed my mind. Some key influences on this journey were the work of Pat Dorsey, Terry Smith, and – from the Twitter verse – Lawrence Hamtil.

• Everyone needs to figure out their own approach.

5 years ago, I thought there was one true path to investing – and that path was buying statistically cheap stocks.

I no longer think that this is the case. For some people, flipping deep value will work for them. For others, coffee canning growth stocks will work.

For me, an asset allocation approach with ETF’s solved many of my issues. Having a side portfolio with the ability to buy individual stocks helped me, as well.

Everyone needs to figure out their own approach. Everyone has different risk tolerances and beliefs.

The most important thing is finding an approach that you can actually stick with. It’s a different journey for everyone.

• Savings rates trump everything.

In my 20’s, I got myself into a bind with debt. I focused and worked in extreme ways to dig myself out of it.

In my 30’s (which are now almost over), I carried over the same intensity I had towards paying off debt and harnessed it towards saving money.

5 years ago, I didn’t quite appreciate how much money I had saved. I was more focused on my CAGR and less on my savings rate. My savings rate was already high at that point – but I never appreciated that those frugal behaviors were so critical.

I can’t understate the impact that my high savings rate had on my life. More importantly, I can’t understate the amount of peace this has brought to me. Indeed, the best thing about money is not having to worry about money.

I think back to the days when I was in debt and would be in a constant state of panic & worry (particularly after a period of homelessness) – constantly worried about losing my job, where I would live if I lost my job, how I would pay for food this week, etc.

I don’t have those worries, anymore. It’s freeing.

I remember thinking things in my mid-20’s like “I wish I had an apartment, a few thousand saved, and no debt.” That was literally all I wanted back then. I have now wildly exceeded those modest wishes.

I used to look back on the years I accrued debt with regret, but now I feel fortunate that I experienced them.

If I didn’t go through the experience of living out of my car, I probably would still foolishly waste my money. Those hard times taught me important lessons about money those other folks simply can’t understand because they didn’t live through it.

The amount of money I’ve saved since those days has exceeded my wildest expectations. The reason I’ve gotten there is frugality and focusing on savings. I’ve succeeded in this arena due to this focus on saving money, not due to any investing acumen.

Savings rate is more important than CAGR. If you’re not saving and living beneath your means, then it doesn’t matter how much you make in investing. You’re going to blow it on lifestyle choices.

Indexing? Growth? Value? It doesn’t matter if you’re not saving money and living beneath your means. Without savings, financial knowledge is wasted.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Read the full disclaimer.

The Art of Doing Nothing

I didn’t do a single trade this quarter.

I just let everything sit.

It was great.

I believe that this is the first time this has occurred in the history of this blog.

Overall, my portfolio is up 13.61% YTD. It’s not bad considering that 28% of the portfolio is in long term treasuries and gold.

Currently, this is the composition of the account that I track on this blog:

Note that the above results are not YTD, but from my purchase price.

I haven’t changed any allocations or done any trades this quarter. I’m letting my individual stock picks sit and I’m letting the weird portfolio do its work.

Weird YTD

If you’re unfamiliar with the weird portfolio, you can read a cliff notes version of it here.

YTD, the ‘offense’ assets are ripping and the defensive assets are struggling.

This is as it is supposed to be. If the economy were to take a dive, I would expect this situation to reverse.

I see everyone arguing about what’s going to happen to the macro-economy and I cannot bring myself to care about their predictions. I’m totally comfortable having a bulk of my money in the weird portfolio because it has something that will do well no matter what happens.

Is inflation going to rage? Ok. I have gold and real estate.

Is the inflation truly transitory and simply a result of supply chain issues? Ok. I have long term treasuries, which should benefit from deflation.

Is the economy going to continue going gangbusters? The ‘offense’ slice of the portfolio should be fine.

Will the Delta variant and Fed tapering cause a downturn? Treasuries ought to save the day.

I just don’t care about this stuff any more.

That’s the kind of serenity that this sort of portfolio brings.

Substack

I have been negligent with my sub-stack this quarter. I need to get back into that habit.

My actual job continues to be insane after my promotion and I just haven’t had the time or mental energy to do deep dives into companies.

Another reason for my negligence is the overvaluation of the market. Every company that I look at is so insanely overvalued relative to its history that I can’t get particularly excited about the project.

The purpose, of course, is to have the work done on companies before a downturn in the market – or, alternatively, when one of these companies experiences a temporary problem that makes the price attractive.

I’ve done the work on many companies and I’ll know an opportunity when I see it. There aren’t any opportunities, right now. I need to get back into the habit of updating this on a regular basis.

Hopefully I pick this up, again.

But . . . don’t expect any buys. The typical company I’m looking at is nearly 50% overvalued relative to its history. I’m not putting a dime into that sort of situation. The weird portfolio is a much superior alternative to that kind of set-up.

Books

I spent a lot of time with Anne Rice’s first three Vampire Chronicles books this quarter.

Interview with the Vampire

The Vampire Lestat

Queen of the Damned

They were all fantastic. They were also far removed from Finance – which was the point.

On one level, the books are just a rip roaring adventure through the supernatural. This is particularly true once the story is told from Lestat’s POV in book #2. Louis (the protagonist of book #1) is a bit emo and morose. He feels damned and doesn’t want to be a vampire. In contrast, Lestat positively loves the adventure that he’s on.

On a deeper level, the books explore deep themes about life and death, good and evil. Stories about vampires who live forever and feed on us is a great template to explore those concepts. There were multiple times I had to put the books down because something in them blew my mind so much.

Additionally, I love the books because they’re about vampires who are genuinely terrifying. These aren’t vampires that are going to fall in love with you. They’re certainly not going to go to high school or sparkle. They’re actual, blood sucking, monsters.

Here is an example of a passage that blew my mind and made me think:

I highly recommend these books if you’re into something a little supernatural. It’s certainly the right time of year for that.

Random

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Read the full disclaimer.

The Shiller P/E (or CAPE ratio) since 1881

A Maddening Ratio

The Shiller P/E (or CAPE) is a measure of market valuations developed by Nobel-prize winner Robert Shiller. It smooths out earnings over 10 years (because earnings are extraordinarily volatile in the short run) and then compares them to market prices. You can check out the data for free, right here.

The Shiller P/E is a metric that has long maddened me. This is because I used it wrong. I thought that the Shiller P/E could be used as a tool to predict the market and that’s not really what it does.

I’ve long looked at it in the context of ‘the bigger they are, the harder they fall.’ I thought that the Shiller P/E could be used as a prediction tool. That’s not really how it works.

My History With the Ratio

As a teen in the ’90s, I was a bulled-up internet bubble believer who was lucky enough to come across ‘The Intelligent Investor’ in the summer of 2000. I looked at the prices, thought they were crazy in the context of Ben Graham, and then I got out.

Of course, Ben Graham was new to me at the time. I never fully appreciated the frustration of people who used a price-to-multiple approach through the 1990’s.

CAPE became expensive in historical terms in the early 1990’s. Someone using that approach would have been maddened by the insanity that happened for the rest of the decade. Someone using that classic approach missed out on most of the ’90s bull market.

I simply was lucky enough to discover value investing at exactly the right time. My timing gave me a flawed sense of confidence in predicting markets.

Throughout the 2010’s, I looked at a rising CAPE ratio and assumed this was all going to crash, eventually. I’d tell people I didn’t know for sure – but I didn’t really believe that in my bones.

Of course, I didn’t think this would happen on its own. My theory was that a catalyst was necessary to make CAPE crash. Historically, the catalyst is typically a recession.

I thought you could predict recessions with the yield curve, which is a reliable indicator. Once a frothy market like the US runs into a recession, the CAPE ratio will mean revert.

When COVID came along, I thought this was the ticket. This was the catalyst that was going to make the Shiller PE mean revert.

As anyone who follows this blog knows, that didn’t happen. CAPE only got down to 24x. This is hardly ‘cheap’ in any historical context. I figured – at the very least – it would get down to 15x. That was around the low reached in 2009.

(Interestingly, the 2009 low wasn’t even particularly ‘cheap,’ either. The average CAPE ratio since 1881 has been 17.)

The Trouble With Historical Multiples

Since 1881, CAPE has gyrated between a low of 4.78 (1920) and the high of 44.2 (1999).

More recently, in 1980, it reached a low of 8.1. This was mainly because interest rates were at all-time-highs in the context of thousands of years of human history.

Looking at a historical chart, timing the market with CAPE looks easy. Sell when you’re at all-time highs in 2000. Buy when in the single-digits in the early 1980’s. Smoke a fat cigar and laugh at the idiots who bought at the highs and didn’t recognize the opportunity at the lows.

Unfortunately, as I have discovered the hard way, that’s not how the real world actually works.

When is it at the high? When is the low? There is no one who can tell you when that is. Alan Greenspan talked about ‘irrational exuberance’ in 1996. That looked like the top to a lot of people and it was not. The market looked cheap compared to the ’90s and 2000’s in the summer of 2008, but it had much further to fall.

The average throughout history is 17. Since 1995, the US market has only spent 3.2% of the time below 17. Imagine if you only invested in stocks when they were below the average.

Literally, the only time you would have invested since ’95 is 3% of the time. Meanwhile, since ’95, the US stock market has turned $10,000 into $162,188.

At this point, if you’ve been bearish since ’95, the market needs to fall 95% for you to be vindicated. That’s probably not going to happen. (Insert long perma bear rant about the Fed and how everything is doomed and it’s all a big Ponzi scheme house of cards.)

If it does fall 95%, I guarantee you that something so horrific is happening in the world that the size of your portfolio probably doesn’t matter much and we are likely entering a Mad Max style hellscape. Stock up on your ammo.

The Long Term is Longer Than You Think

The S&P 500 has historically grown earnings at about a 6% clip. Let’s say it does that for the next decade. We’ll get a 6% return plus dividends, right?

The actual growth isn’t the full story, though. What multiple will investors be willing to pay for those earnings?

That, my friend, is key and it is totally and completely unpredictable.

Let’s say that it gets down to 22 by 2031. The 6% growth should have resulted in 79% growth.

Unfortunately, the mean reversion of the multiple created a lost decade for US stocks even while the fundamentals grew.

What will the 2031 multiple be? It’s impossible to say. It could stay 40 and we’ll actually earn the growth rate of the companies within the index. If we have a Japan moment, it could go up to 100. It could crash down to 10, again. It’s all totally unpredictable.

The multiple 10 years from now depends on what inflation, growth, and interest rates will be. It will depend on the quality of the companies within the index. If they’re growing fast and have fat margins, a higher multiple can be justified. It’s also possible that the quality of companies deteriorates over the next 10 years. No one knows what is going to happen.

When viewed through the context of the total unpredictability of all of these factors, it’s clear that it’s virtually impossible to predict returns 10 years out, let alone 1 year out or 6 months from now.

I mentioned earlier that the S&P 500 has historically grown earnings at a 6% clip. I think an investor with a truly long time horizon (40 years, for instance) is likely to capture that growth plus dividends.

Everyone likes to say that they have these time horizons, but I don’t believe them. I think most people think of ‘long term’ as 5 or 10 years, but the investment outcomes over those time horizons are totally unpredictable.

The crazy fact is that 10 years is short term in the context of market history.

How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Trust the Weird Portfolio

This realization – that the future is totally unpredictable – has made me gravitate towards an asset allocation that ought to be able to deliver a return across a 10-year time horizon regardless of what happens to the macro-economy. For me, the solution was the weird portfolio.

I’m naturally a pessimist. I try to be optimistic, but I can’t help myself. I listen to someone like Peter Schiff and my natural inclination is to hoard gold bars and ammo. I listen to an optimist like Cathie Wood and my natural inclination is to scoff and assume she has her head in the clouds. Of course, Cathie Wood’s philosophy has worked out a lot better than Peter Schiff’s in the last decade. Which philosophy will win out over the next? I have no idea.

That’s why a conservative asset allocation was so useful for me. Are we going to have a deflationary bust? Alright, I own some long term treasuries. Are we going to have hyperinflation and USD collapse? Well, I have some gold and real estate. Is the multiple going to mean revert slowly over the next decade without ending the world? Well, my stock exposure is tilted to small cap value, which should be somewhat insulated from that mean reversion.

Investing in a diversified approach has helped me to stop worrying about the Shiller PE and our impending doom. Instead, I can methodically save & invest for my future.

I’m glad that I developed this approach before COVID. I kept most of my money in that approach. When COVID hit, I acted correctly with the money that I had invested in the weird portfolio.

For the account that I track on this blog, I expressed my opinions about what the market would do.

My opinion wasn’t worth much. The Shiller PE wasn’t worth much as an analysis tool during that time.

I feel fortunate to have discovered an asset allocation that I’m comfortable with that helped me stop worrying about the Shiller PE.

What works for you? That’s really a question you have to answer for yourself. Are you an optimist? Are you a pessimist? What are your goals? How far out are they?

While I don’t know the right asset allocation for everyone, I have concluded that using CAPE as a market timing tool is a flawed concept. Hopefully people can learn this lesson on my dime.

You will not time the market correctly and smoke a fat cigar while laughing at the idiots, I assure you.

Or – maybe you can, in which case, enjoy the smoky Cuban goodness – but that’s probably not gonna happen.

Random

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Read the full disclaimer.

I’ve made 14.88% YTD, basically matching the performance of the S&P 500. I was up 18% a few weeks ago, but Biogen is a volatile beast.

For the account that I track on this blog (which does not represent all of my money, most of which is in the weird portfolio), this is where the account is currently invested:

Note that the percentage gain is from my cost, not the YTD result.

My cash balance that I sat on foolishly for much of 2020 was moved into the weird portfolio on 11/2/20. For those unfamiliar, the weird portfolio is described here.

I’ve owned Biogen since August 2020, Schwab since September 2020, General Dynamics since October 2020, and Intel since January 2021. I hope I’ll own them for many years to come.

I haven’t bought a new stock since my purchase of Intel in January.

Matching the S&P 500 might not seem like that great of an accomplishment, but it’s worth considering that 28% of my portfolio is in long term treasuries & gold (treasuries & gold represent 40% of the weird portfolio).

Treasuries & gold are a drag on my performance right now, but they will come in handy whenever there is a crash and help reduce the drawdown.

Strategy

My current strategy is pretty simple. I’m looking for outstanding companies and I want to own a dozen of them for the long haul.

If I buy an individual stock, I want it to be an wonderful business that I can hold for 5-10 years. I want to acquire those companies at wonderful prices because I believe in an old fashioned concept called ‘margin of safety.’

If I can’t find them, I hold the weird portfolio asset allocation.

Obviously, with the weird portfolio currently at 69% of this account, I am not finding many good opportunities.

The weird portfolio helps me avoid cash drag. It also helps prevents me from buying sub-par opportunities.

If I had 70% of my portfolio in cash earning 0%, then I would be tempted to buy outstanding companies at not-so-outstanding prices. I’d also be tempted to buy junky companies at wonderful prices, which I previously struggled with.

Knowing that I’m in the weird portfolio helps me avoid these temptations. I’m confident I’ll earn about 5-8% in this asset allocation and I’ll lose less than the market whenever it goes through one of its temper tantrums.

Portfolio Activity

I’m proud of this quarter because I didn’t do much of anything. I reduced Schwab in Q1. All I did this quarter is move that cash into the weird portfolio.

In terms of activity within the portfolio, the main noteworthy event was the approval of aducanumab by the FDA. After the approval, Biogen ran up from $267 to $414. My overall portfolio was up 18%. Now, the stock is $348. Go home, Mr. Market, you’re drunk.

I’ve held Biogen since August 2020. I’ll keep holding it for a long period of time.

The way I see it, Biogen has an excellent track record of developing high-margin drugs. They have a wide research pipeline. Over time, they’ll develop new blockbuster drugs. Those drugs will work their way through the lifecycle: initial surge, maturity, and then decline. It takes about 8 years. As drugs decline, other drugs will be in different stages of the process.

I think Biogen will continue to develop high-margin drugs as the years go on.

Biogen is an excellent company for the long term with or without aducanumab.

I’ll simply ignore the CNBC-addicted chart-watching stock junkie drama – i.e., It might not be approved! It’s approved! Congress might put in price controls! Stock up! Stock down!

Eh, whatever. Talk to me in 10 years.

I’ve been able to look at the volatility of the stocks I own and simply ignore it. I’ll sell them if they get to be too big a percent of my portfolio, if they become absurdly overvalued, or if their moat erodes.

I’ve found I like this approach a lot more than diving in and out of stocks in value-oriented swing trades like I used to – worrying about whether the company was executing or failing, worrying about the vagaries of the economic cycle, etc.

I really enjoy not worrying about anything.

The Hunt

While I have most of this account in the weird portfolio, I’m looking for outstanding companies. I document this search on my substack.

In the last quarter, I didn’t dig into as many companies I would prefer. I’ve been a bit busy. I was promoted at work and a job promotion is a real drag on time that could be spent having fun & learning about companies.

That said, I did find a few to add to my watchlist:

Cerner

Waste Management

Church & Dwight

Fastenal

All of these are outstanding firms, but they are currently at bad prices.

I also took a look at Becton Dickinson. On the surface, this looked like it fits my definition of a wonderful company, but I concluded that it was not.

So far, this is the list of companies I’ve evaluated and deemed them to be ‘wonderful’ and worthy of being held for years:

As you can see, none of them are quite at a compelling price relative to their history. In absolute terms, most are not at a compelling free cash flow yield, either.

I’ll wait, continue to watch this list, and I’ll be interested when they’re at an excellent absolute free cash yield and their multiples are cheap relative to their history. Before pouncing, I’ll also re-evaluate and see if they’re still ‘wonderful.’

I hope to build this list up to about 100 companies and follow them closely, waiting for the opportunity to buy at a compelling price.

I’ll buy with the margin of safety, and then hopefully hold for 5-10 years.

I suspect this will turn into a ‘when it rains it pours’ situation and many will be a fat pitch at the same time.

Whenever the rain is pouring, I’ll know exactly what I want to own. In December 2018 and March 2020, I ran stock screens trying to see what was cheap. Then, I’d use the screen to research companies. I also wasn’t in the best emotional mindset because I had just lost a bunch of money and was hoping to ‘make it up’ with some good trades.

Next time, I’ll know exactly what I want to own. The work will have been done before the crash and not during the crash while I was in a bad emotional state. This seems like a better strategy than scrambling during the crash while in a lousy emotional state.

Random

I read three great books this quarter.

I read Rob Lowe’s book “Stories I Only Tell My Friends” and absolutely loved it. He has a fascinating life story. I could relate to Rob’s story of excess in his ’20s and sobriety thereafter. Interestingly, Rob and I got sober at the same age – 26. For me, 20-26 I was in the mindset of ‘I can goof off now, I’m young’ and around 26 I came to the realization ‘If I do this for the rest of my life, my life is going to turn into a wreck.’ It features some hilarious and compelling stories. I often smiled and laughed out loud while reading this book.

I also enjoyed JL Collin’s “A Simple Path to Wealth.” I don’t invest in market cap weighted indexes like he recommends, but I really liked his writing style and approach to saving. The concept of an “FU fund” and avoidance of debt is something I completely agree with. I also agree with the concept of finding an investing approach where you can ignore market volatility. For him, that’s market cap weighted index funds. For me, it’s the weird portfolio and positions in outstanding companies.

Another fun one was “Richer Wiser Happier” by William Green. It featured profiles with great investors and their approach to life. For me, the most compelling person in the book was Arnold Van Den Berg. Arnold survived the holocaust and emerged from that to build a great life. To me, he was the most compelling person featured and his story is inspiring. It’s absolutely incredible what he was able to achieve in life from tough origins and then thrive in a tough business for decades.

Bill Brewster featured Arnold on his podcast. Bill’s podcast is top notch and I think the interview with Arnold has been the absolute crown jewel of the entire series. There is so much you can learn from Arnold, particularly when it comes to mindset and psychology.

As most of you know, I’m a nerd’s nerd and a Trekkie. I caught this great documentary up for free on Youtube. It’s William Shatner interviewing everyone who played a Captain on the different incarnations of Star Trek.

Additionally, I got back on Twitter. I took some extreme measures to control my usage/addiction. I put my two factor on a flip phone number and deleted the app on my smartphone. Therefore, the only time I can look at it is if I’m sitting in front of my desktop in my office.

I also restrict my feed to some carefully curated lists, free from macro speculation and the siren song of Mr. Market who has been on what appears drug-fueled manic binge that will result in a significant damage bill from a hotel.

Anyway, I don’t think I’ll ever be able to quit Twitter, but hopefully I can control it a bit better.

Music wise, I uncovered this gem. I love that they took a great song from 1992 and made it sound like it came out in 1982.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Read the full disclaimer.