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Herb Greenberg On GoodRx; Stability In SPACs

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 22:45

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing some investors find stability in SPACs; Herb Greenberg on CNBC on Goodrx Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:GDRX); how Mark Zuckerberg’s stranglehold on Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) could put the company at risk; more on Munger investing in apartment buildings.

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Some Investors Find Stability In SPACs

1) Following up on yesterday's e-mail, in which I mentioned the latest issue of my colleague Enrique Abeyta's Empire SPAC Investor (click here to find out how to gain risk-free access), this Wall Street Journal article highlights how out-of-favor the sector is, which to me is a very bullish sign: Some Investors Find Stability in SPACs. Excerpt:

As of Friday, the common shares of 452 of 469 SPACs [special purpose acquisition companies] looking for a target traded below their trust value, according to SPAC Informer, an analytics site started by Mr. [David] Sherman. Among all SPACs looking for a target, the combined trust value of $135 billion, the weighted average yield to liquidation was 1.71% and the weighted average maturity was 1.3 years. Just over a hundred SPACs offered a yield of at least 2.25%.

Here's another bullish sign: The amount of money being raised by new SPACs is down by 85% in the past six months relative to the peak in February and March:

Herb Greenberg On CNBC On GoodRx

2) My newest colleague, Herb Greenberg, was on CNBC's Fast Money on Tuesday to share why we're bullish on GoodRx (GDRX), which Enrique recommended in his Empire Elite Growth newsletter on May 26. The stock is up 15% since then... and Enrique thinks big upside is still ahead.

You can watch Herb here, and Empire Elite Growth subscribers can click here to read Enrique's write-up on GoodRx. (If you aren't a subscriber, you can find out how to gain access here.)

How Mark Zuckerberg's Stranglehold On Facebook Could Put The Company At Risk

3) I was quoted in this Business Insider article about Facebook (FB) yesterday: 'The most powerful person who's ever walked the face of the earth': How Mark Zuckerberg's stranglehold on Facebook could put the company at risk. Excerpt:

Experts told Insider that there is cause for concern around one person having control over a controversial family of platforms that affect hundreds of millions of people.

"I don't think it's a stretch to argue that Mark Zuckerberg is the most powerful person who's ever walked the face of the earth, and I think that kind of power being held by one person is generally a bad idea," Whitney Tilson, a former hedge fund manager and CEO of Empire Financial Research, told Insider...

More On Munger Investing In Apartment Buildings

4) Following up on my recent e-mail about investing legend Charlie Munger buying apartment buildings, a friend wrote:

We have been investing lately in multifamily housing with a very smart young man I have known for 20 years. Why?

Tax-deferred income (25% on income when you do pay – 22% tax rate on total return)
Great inflation hedge (rents reset every 12 months; long-term hard asset financed by long-term fixed-rate debt – best inflation hedge in the world)
High current income (difficult to come by these days)

My friend buys in underinvested secondary markets from mom-and-pop operators and generates 55% of his returns from simply managing the properties better.

Best regards,

Whitney

P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 4:45 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Hot Locations: The 30 Most Popular Second Home Buying Destinations in the Americas

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 22:13

When it started almost two years ago, the pandemic upended people’s lives. Hobbies were forgotten, all activities that were not hand washing and mask buying were set aside, and all plans were put on hold. Travel plans were chief among them, as planes and trains and ships all ground to a halt in the weeks and months that followed the first lockdown.

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Travelers and those interested in moving abroad were hit especially hard by the new restrictions. However, the temporary clamp down only seemed to make Americans more eager and more determined to try and find a better home, a bigger property or a sunnier backyard somewhere south or north of the border.

With much more time on their hands and with precious else left to occupy their imagination, many Americans took to travel planning and house hunting in the virtual space. And as the analysis of search patterns by real estate platform Point2 revealed, some countries and places in the Americas take precedence when it comes to Americans’ preferences for second home locations.

Compared to 2015 and 2018, some countries have retained their privileged position at the top, while others were dethroned by newly minted, second home and vacation home heavens.

So, which are the most desirable destinations for second home buying? Mexico and Canada remain the most popular destinations in which to buy a second home in the Americas. Puerto Rico — the third-most sought-after location in 2018 — dropped to number four, switching places with Costa Rica. Newcomer Honduras kicked Jamaica out of the top 10 most-wanted locations. New countries to enter top 30 include: El Salvador, Grenada, Anguilla, and Peru.

Mexico’s Fabulous Beaches & Enchanting Lifestyle Continue to Attract American Homebuyers

No other country was able to surpass Mexico so, in 2021, it remains the most popular destination for Americans looking to buy a home abroad. Gathering more than 80,000 monthly searches, Mexico is the obvious vacation choice given its wide array of activities, leisure opportunities, and spectacular gastronomic options.

Also, with beaches for miles, relaxing waves and colorful wildlife, looking for homes for sale in Puerto Vallarta or San Miguel de Allende makes sense for many of the people who feel trapped inside crammed city apartments.

Puerto Vallarta is the most-searched destination, followed by San Miguel de Allende and Cabo San Lucas. Boasting the most Google searches of all of the real estate markets in the country, these superlative resort-style cities have all the sand and sea, captivating architecture and entertainment options that anyone could wish for.

San Miguel de Allende is a hidden gem that’s sure to make repeaters of all of its first-time visitors and, moreover, turn many visitors into permanent residents. Proof of the city’s incredible magnetism, as well as its acceptance and harmonious living are the 63 different nationalities living together and calling San Miguel home.

The third most-researched Mexican destination is Cabo San Lucas. Americans who want to move here are mostly fascinated by the pristine beaches and spectacular water vistas, as well as the city’s busy night life, abundant food and dining options, and vibrant art scene.

Canada Retains Its Appeal for American Second-Home Buyers

Jumping from the 7th place in 2015 straight to #2 in 2018, Canada has managed to retain its place on the podium in 2021 as well. The U.S. neighbor to the north has become a mainstay, in large part due to its proximity and ease of access but also to Canadians’ famed deference and politeness and to the country’s amazing ski resorts, endless hiking trails and breathtaking northern lights spectacle.

Vancouver, BC and Toronto, ON are the most popular locations for Americans looking to buy a second home. Coming in at #3 — but definitely trailing behind the first two markets in terms of number of searches — is Hamilton, ON.

But for those who are more interested in the best cities for young people, more specifically Canada’s top millennial hot spots, the cities that are the most attractive are Québec City, QC; Ottawa, ON; and Kingston, ON.

Tropical Paradise Costa Rica Earns Spot as In-Demand Second-Home Location

Costa Rica has something for everyone: Those who simply want to relax in the sun all day can take advantage of the country’s endless beaches while the adventurous types can spend as much time as possible surfing, white-water rafting, visiting the hot springs of Arenal or watching wildlife.

And what are the top three most-desirable locations for Americans? Tamarindo, Jaco and Santa Ana. If Tamarindo and Jaco are known for their beaches, great surfing, water sports and activities and amazing national parks, Santa Ana is famous for its professional 18-hole golf course, a bustling downtown area with plenty of shopping venues and restaurants.

No matter the place they choose, with a bit of luck, American second home buyers are sure to find their own home away from home in these countries. Garnering tens of thousands of searches, tropical havens and oases of adventure or tranquility such as Mexico, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, or Canada might be the perfect places to escape and unwind.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 4:13 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Children’s Furniture Market On The Rise Despite COVID-19

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 20:41

Most industries in the UK have been impacted in some way by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the furniture market is no different. However, thanks to increased parent spending on children’s bedrooms, nurseries, and playrooms, the global children’s furniture market is growing and is predicted to be worth USD $41.6 billion by 2027.

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

An improvement in the general standard of living and rising disposable income has led to growth in the furniture market. This increase in purchasing power has seen a significant increase in demand for children's furniture.

“The beds industry had a noticeable surge in sales during covid, with many families concentrating on home improvements, this was hindered by international shipping and cost of bring in materials " – Ashley Hainsworth, Director of Bed Kingdom

Parent Preference

The desire to incorporate children's toys, books, and clothes in one place is driving up demand for multifunctional furniture, such as bunk beds and cabinets. Meanwhile, increasing real estate prices are expected to affect the sizes of homes, especially children-centred rooms, creating valuable growth opportunities for businesses offering easy to assemble furniture for children's rooms.

Parents opting for furniture made from durable materials and offering both multifunctionality and a wide choice of colours is expected to create additional growth opportunities for key market players. As theme-based interior design continues to increase in popularity, parents want furniture with the appropriate shapes and colours to compliment their chosen theme.

Product Insights

Cribs, Cots, And Beds

Cribs, cots, and children's beds have the largest market share of children's furniture sales at 40% and are the most popular furniture items purchased for children's rooms.

Bunk Beds

The increased use of bunk beds, especially metal bunk beds, in residential schools, dormitories, hostels and military bases, will likely create growth opportunities for manufacturers.

Parents typically choose bunk beds as they have the same footprint as a single bed but allow two or more individuals to sleep within the same space. However, bunk beds typically have a limited lifespan, as the top bed can become difficult for children, adolescents, and young adults to access, potentially impacting the growth of the bunk bed market. Europe and North America are the bunk bed market leaders and are predicted to maintain this position due to the growing popularity of outdoor activities, such as summer camps.

Storage, Chests, And Cabinets

Chests, dressers, and cabinets are expected to experience the fastest CAGR at 5.4% from 2019 to 2025. While these items are relatively low-cost and easy to assemble, they also help teach organizational skills, which all combine to drive up product demand in the upcoming years.

Material Insights

Wood furniture has the largest market share at 60% when it comes to children's furniture. Wood furniture designed for children comes in both hardwood and softwood. Hardwood items are relatively more expensive, sourced from walnut, mahogany, rosewood, teak, beech, cherry, oak, maple, birch, and ash.

Hardwood furniture items are far more durable and require relatively minimal maintenance. Softwood furniture comes from yew, redwood, juniper, cedar, larch, fir, spruce, and pine. These types of wood are lightweight, generally have a better finish, and can absorb adhesive.

Regional Insights

Europe, in recent years, has had the biggest market share for children's furniture at 40%. It's anticipated that the region will continue to hold this position as the strongest market player for children's furniture, particularly in countries such as Italy, France, the UK, and Germany who continue to maintain a strong market presence both online and offline.

Meanwhile, it's predicted that Asia Pacific will experience the fastest CAGR from 2019 to 2025 at 5.4%. Australia, India, China, and Japan are the key consumers in the province. Increasing demand for American and English style children's furniture in Fast East regions such as the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will drive regional growth. Also, the substantially high birth rate will also likely fuel the demand. A relatively stable if not growing employment market in Indonesia, Maldives, South Korea, Bangladesh, India, and China has also helped improve its consumers' economic status, boosting buying power and product demand.

Children's Furniture Market

There's a huge amount of competition in the global children's furniture market. From companies offering high-end bespoke pieces to more affordable pieces, consumers must assemble them themselves at home. Consumers have a vast amount of choice depending on their style, budget, and material preferences, whether they are looking for beds, dressers, cabinets, or other storage items. Some of the top key players in the international children's furniture market include:

Summer Infant Inc
Sorelle Furniture
Milliard Bedding
Legare
KidKraft
Ikea
Graco
Dream on Me INC
Bombay Dyeing
Ashley Home Stores, Ltd

Designer Children's Furniture

The children's furniture market has seen a growing shift in preference for designer furniture. Increased awareness of environmental issues and the impact of plastic on the natural world has led many manufacturers and brands to explore new opportunities in designer children's furniture.

The children's designer furniture market has also seen a wave of furniture made from discarded plastic toys and recycled plastic. This has led to the plastic material portion of the children's furniture market, expecting to reach around 200 million units by 2027.

In recent years, the designer children's furniture market has seen several startups looking to capitalize on this growing and profitable trend. However, convincing parent consumers of the attraction and virtues of children's furniture made from recycled materials is a challenge. However, as startups collaborate with international brands and focus on innovative developments to improve children's comfort, it's expected that this share of the market will continue to attract eco-conscious parents.

The global children's furniture market is experiencing a huge transformation. Intelligent furniture, more inclusive designs, and the use of eco-friendly materials are changing the shape of the market. Children's furniture manufacturers and brands are improving their capabilities to create and build high-quality furniture that meets customer demand for attractive and functional items and long-lasting products that will stand the test of time.

However, those more green-conscious designers and manufacturers will continue to challenge convincing consumers of sustainable furniture's aesthetic and cost credentials. Therefore, companies shouldn't forget that even in our modern eco-conscious world, safety, quality, quantity, and longevity are the number one priority for most consumers looking to invest in furniture for their children's bedrooms, playrooms, and nurseries.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 2:41 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Watch These Next-Gen Cloud Computing Stocks

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 20:27

Adapt or die.

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

That was the tough choice facing many small businesses when COVID-19 hit.

It was truly survival of the fittest.

The good news is millions of American entrepreneurs rose to the occasion.

According to CNBC, a record 4.3 million new business applications were processed last year. And 77% of those were online businesses!

Meanwhile, millions of existing mom-and-pop shops rapidly retooled to do business on the internet.

As regular RiskHedge readers know, “entrepreneur stocks” made this possible.

Entrepreneur stocks help small companies set up and grow online. They’ve been lucrative investments since the pandemic struck.

Next-Gen Cloud Computing Stocks: Shopify

Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP) helps businesses set up and run online stores. It has rallied 226% since April 2020.

Square

Square Inc (NYSE:SQ) helps small businesses accept payments online. It has surged 355% over the same period.

Etsy

Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) gives artists and creators a marketplace to sell custom crafts. It has soared 243% since the March 2020 COVID crash.

But the biggest game-changer for small businesses has been the rise of “cloud computing for the little guy”…

In a nutshell, cloud computing lets companies access powerful software over the internet without paying a fortune.

Cloud computing stocks aren’t new. But most well-known cloud computing platforms, like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft’s Azure, are geared toward large enterprises.

I’m more interested in cloud computing companies that help little companies… simply because the untapped potential is huge.

Small- and medium-sized businesses employ 60 million people in the US. They also make up 99.9% of all registered companies.

But until COVID, almost none of them were online.

A recent Bloomberg study found only half of small businesses have websites. Even fewer have ever sold anything online!

Meanwhile, the huge benefits of moving to the cloud make it a no-brainer for most companies...

Deloitte found that small businesses that use the cloud grow 26% faster than ones that don’t.

That same study found 69% of companies plan to increase spending on cloud computing in the next three years.

Despite all this, most small companies haven’t moved to the cloud yet. A study by McKinsey confirms most companies only have about 20% of their workflows happening on the cloud.

In other words, there’s hypergrowth potential for cloud computing companies that focus on small businesses...

Intuit

Consider Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU)…

Intuit isn’t exactly a household name. But many small businesses couldn’t live without this company. It owns the credit score–tracking company Credit Karma and budget-tracking company Mint.

It also owns the tax-preparation company TurboTax and accounting software QuickBooks. And it recently acquired MailChimp to help small businesses with email marketing.

If there were a stock market Hall of Fame, Intuit would be a shoo-in. It’s returned over 20,300% since it IPO’d in March 1993. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 into $203,300.

HubSpot

Then there’s HubSpot Inc (NYSE:HUBS). Like cloud computing pioneer Salesforce (CRM), HubSpot helps businesses find, engage, and convert customers. Unlike Salesforce, HubSpot focuses on helping smaller companies.

HubSpot has rallied 77% this year and 2,500% since it went public.

I’m expecting even bigger returns out of stocks like these in the years to come.

Bill.com

This is why I recently recommended Bill.com Holdings Inc (NYSE:BILL)…

Bill.com helps small businesses simplify payments with a solution that is automated, digital, and cloud-based.

Bill has surged 1,070% since it went public on December 12, 2019, and 66% since I encouraged my subscribers to buy it in June.

Bill continues to look like a market leader. However, there’s a strong possibility it will trade a little choppy until the broad market gets back on track. So, I’d like to see more confirmation of strength before I recommend buying more shares.

But companies like Bill.com will continue to thrive… because it’s never been more important for small businesses to operate on the cloud.

Keep your eyes on the cloud software stocks helping the little guys—that’s where the biggest profits will be found.

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Article By Justin Spittler, Mauldin Economics

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 2:27 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Boyar Value Group 3Q21 Commentary

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 20:00

Boyar Value Group commentary for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021.

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“Cryptocurrencies, regardless of where they’re trading today, Will eventually prove to be worthless. Once the exuberance Wears off, or liquidity dries up, they will go to zero. I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in Cryptocurrencies.” – John Paulson

Stock market investors have a laundry list of worries these days, from partisan bickering over the infrastructure package and a massive social and climate spending bill (amid a high-stakes game of political chicken over the debt ceiling) to supply chain disruptions and a spike in the costs of critical commodities. Geopolitical tensions are escalating between the United States and China—which is undergoing a significant regulatory crackdown—and question marks surround the future of interest rates and the consequences of a future Fed taper. And that’s to say nothing of the coronavirus!

So it’s no surprise that investors are on edge—we’re getting depressed just reading through the list. Yet volatility in 2021, measured by how much the S&P 500 has decreased from its all-time high (~5%), has been tame. (According to David Lebovitz, a global market strategist with JP Morgan, the average peak-totrough decline for the S&P 500 over the past 41 years has been 14.3%.)

In fact, until September, the S&P 500 was regularly charting new all-time highs, at ~54 and counting. But then the stock market got spooked, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst monthly performance (down 4.65%) since March 2020 and its worst September performance since 2011 (during the European debt crisis). Worse, all but one sector was in the red, with Energy the only advancer. Despite a 4.65% September loss, the S&P 500 eked out a 2% gain for the quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of advances. But its 227 days without a 5% drop from the high ended on September 29—the seventh-longest such streak on record, Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s tells us. The Dow and the Nasdaq were less fortunate, with their fivequarter winning streaks ending after respective falls of 4.2% and 5.31% in September. The Dow declined by 1.46% for the quarter, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.38%.

Historically speaking, a September decline in the S&P 500 isn’t surprising: the past 100 years have seen 89 monthly drops of more than 5%. Felice Maranz of Bloomberg notes that September and October have accounted for 12 of the 26 times the market has dropped by more than 10% in a month. Encouragingly, these 26 drops were followed by subsequent 12-month gains on 16 occasions (for an average gain of 6.8%).

Bond yields also began to increase (the 10-year Treasury went from 1.18% to 1.61% in less than 3 months), which dragged down technology shares. Higher yields on long-term risk-free investments make future profits less valuable, harming many tech company valuations, which are often based on expectations of significant profits many years down the line. Since technology companies are weighted heavily in the S&P 500 (nearly 28%, or more than 2x the weighting of the next-largest sector, Health Care, at 13.3%), the index dropped quite a bit more than the average stock did. (In September the S&P 500 index declined by 4.65%, while the S&P 500 equal-weighted index fell 3.90%.)

The S&P 500 finished 3Q 2021 selling for 20.3x earnings (fwd.) versus 19.2x at its February 19, 2020, pre-COVID peak and 13.3x at its March 23, 2020, pandemic low. Since the March 23 bottom, the S&P 500 has gained well over 90%. By most traditional valuation measures (price to earnings, price to book, price to free cash flow, etc.), the S&P 500 is historically overvalued.

Overvaluation against historical averages does not mean that investors should avoid equities, because extraordinarily low interest rates make prior valuation comparisons less meaningful. More important, at The Boyar Value Group, we don’t buy “the market”; rather, we purchase, and hold, businesses that sell far below our estimate of their worth. It might be especially hard uncovering bargains right now, but we’ve identified quite a few businesses selling at attractive levels even so.

What’s Been Driving Share Price Returns in 2021?

None of the 11 S&P 500 GICS sectors had standout performance in 3Q 2021, with 4 in negative territory and 1 flat (Consumer Discretionary). The biggest gainer, Financials, advanced a mere 2.7%. (For comparison, last quarter’s biggest gainer, Real Estate, advanced 13.1%.) By the end of 3Q, no sector was in negative territory YTD, and the best-performing sector by far was Energy (+43.2%). However, its low weighting in the S&P 500 (2.7%) gave it little effect on the index’s return, and its fantastic rise should be viewed in context, following as it did a loss of 37.3% in 2020. Other notable gainers thus far in 2021 have been Financials (+29.1%), Real Estate (+24.4%), and Communication Services (+21.6%). Interestingly, according to JP Morgan, since the market bottomed in March 2020, the S&P 500 had advanced ~97.3% as of September 30, 2021—leaving the index “only” ~30.6% above its February 2020 peak.

The FAAMG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet—formerly Google), which have seemingly been leading the market ever upward, have struggled lately. Since their September peak, they have lost ~9%, or nearly $1 trillion, in market value. Due to FAAMG’s heavy weighting in the S&P 500 (~22%), if this area of the market continues struggling, the S&P 500 likely won’t perform well. Even so, we think there could be plenty of opportunities to make money investing in companies that have lower index weightings and/or that are outside the major indices.

Some of the biggest “pandemic winners” are struggling too, with shares in Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ:ZM), Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON), and Teladoc Health Inc (NYSE:TDOC) down 24%, 43%, and 34%, respectively, in 2021. (Though it’s worth noting that each company’s share price is trading significantly higher than before the pandemic.) One pandemic standout that has continued to soar throughout 2021 is vaccine maker Moderna, whose shares are up 192% in 2021 and up over 1,000% since March 2020.

In hindsight, many signs of an imminent pullback were present. Market sentiment, for example, was very bullish (usually a contrarian indicator). At the beginning of August, two-thirds of JP Morgan clients surveyed were planning to increase their stock exposure in the coming weeks. A recent Bank of America gauge that tracks levels of optimism among market strategists was at a postcrisis high, and as of mid-August, 56% of all Wall Street analyst recommendations on S&P 500 index components were buys, the highest figure since 2002. However, we aren’t market timers. That’s because we know that trying to pinpoint the exact start of a market correction is a fool’s errand that impedes long-term results by prompting more trades (making results less tax-efficient) while removing the chance to make spectacular gains with companies that may be temporarily overvalued based on current earnings but that still have great long-term potential. When selling a high-quality company that has temporarily gotten ahead of itself in terms of valuation but that has excellent future growth prospects, knowing when to repurchase shares is extremely difficult, because the company’s share price often never drops enough to tempt investors into buying it again. So if you sell early to lock in a profit, anticipating a future correction, your profit on a well-timed sale might short-change you on future outsized gains.

Reasons for Optimism

According to Bloomberg, the final quarter of the year has been the strongest quarter for stocks since 2001, with an average increase of 4.1%. If history is any guide, 4Q 2021 could be a good quarter: 412 members of the S&P 500 are heading into it with gains for the year, the third-highest figure during the past 20 years. During that same period, each time 400 or more stocks have been positive through 3Q, the S&P 500 has produced a gain for 4Q.In another potentially bullish sign for stocks, cash holdings among S&P 500 companies hit $1.8 trillion in August 2021, as reported by Dow Jones Market Data—an increase of almost 30% from 3Q 2019. According to recent research by Goldman Sachs cited by Hardika Singh in a Wall Street Journal article, corporate America seems unlikely to be hoarding this cash, with S&P 500 companies expected to increase cash spending to $2.8 trillion in 2021 (mostly on capital expenditures, mergers, and business investment). Corporations also seem willing to buy back their own shares, having collectively authorized ~$870 billion in share repurchases thus far in 2021, $50 billion ahead of the record set in the first 9 months of 2018. If they deploy this capital wisely, share buybacks could buoy share prices in the short run, with capital investments spurring long-term earnings growth.

What Does TINA Have to Do with the Stock Market?

TINA, meaning “there is no alternative,” has become a popular catchphrase among investors, used to express the idea that stocks should continue doing well simply because interest rates are so low as to leave investors few investment options to produce an adequate rate of return. With the 10-year Treasury yielding ~1.6% and municipal bonds yielding ~1.17%, investors certainly are lacking attractive traditionally “safe” investment opportunities! Interest rates are so low that even the yields on some risky European junk bonds don’t earn any real return after factoring in inflation. Until rates rise meaningfully, equities should continue to see support—because there truly are few alternatives.

The State of Value Investing

Since April 2020, the S&P 500 value index has risen a little under 60%, while the S&P 500 growth index has surged over 90%, says Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. Value stocks should start outperforming if history is any guide: in the first 2 years of a recovery after a recession, value has bested growth by an average of 24%, based on data from Research Affiliates.

The swift rotation back into value shares that began in September 2020 ended abruptly in July of this year as the delta variant slowed down the economic recovery, interest rates fell, and investors once again began embracing technology-oriented shares. But value looks like it might be making a comeback, with interest rates rising again and investors starting to embrace industrial and financial shares.

Market Tops

With the S&P 500 having advanced well over 80% since its March 2020 highs, and in view of all the political and economic uncertainty on the horizon, investors are questioning whether the latest bull market has ended. However, Mark Hulbert of the Wall Street Journal points out that unlike bear-market bottoms, which usually occur quickly (thankfully), bull markets end slowly, because individual sectors or investment styles peak and retreat at different times:

“A recent illustration that not all sectors and styles hit their bull-market highs at the same time came at the top of the internet-stock bubble in early 2000. Though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit their bull-market highs in March 2000, value stocks—and small-cap value stocks, in particular—kept on rising. The S&P 500 at its October 2002 bear-market low was 49% lower than its March 2000 high, and the Nasdaq Composite was 78% lower, but the average small-cap value stock was 2% higher than it was in March 2000.

Hulbert analyzed 30 bull-market tops since the mid-1920s, using data maintained by Ned Davis Research, and identified the dates when individual sectors and market styles (value, growth, blend) reached their bull-market peaks, reporting a 225-day spread between the dates when the first and last market sectors reached their bull-market tops. There are exceptions, of course, such as with bear markets caused by exogenous events such as 9/11 and the pandemic, but in general, he says, “it’s more accurate to view a bull-market top as a process rather than a single event.”

As Hulbert points out, even the so-called experts can’t determine when a market peaks. Over the past 40 years, on days when the S&P 500 reached a bull-market high, the market timers that he followed recommended equity exposure at an average of 65.7%—a higher level of recommended investment than on 95% of all other days over the period. The experts were even worse at picking bear market lows, with their average equity exposure at market lows over the same period a mere 5%—yet another example of investors buying high and selling low!

The takeaway is that knowing when a market has peaked is pretty much impossible to do regularly: even the so-called experts are consistently wrong. Individual investors would do much better to base their decisions on the value of each of their holdings rather than trying to guess whether they’re in a bull or bear market.

Speculation in the Market

The amount of speculation in the stock market worries us. A good example is the heightened use of stock options, which have legitimate hedging purposes, but which individuals seem to have recently embraced for speculative purposes. CBOE data indicate that option trading by individual investors has risen 4x over the past 5 years. As noted by Gundan Banerdi in the Wall Street Journal,

“Nine of 10 of the most-active call-options trading days in history have taken place in 2021, Cboe Global Markets data show. Almost 39 million option contracts have changed hands on an average day this year, up 31% from 2020 and the highest level since the market’s inception in 1973, according to figures from the Options Clearing Corp.”

As a result, the options market has grown so large that in some respects it’s bigger than the stock market. In 2021, for example, according to CBOE data, the daily average notional value of single stock options was over $432 billion, compared with $404 billion in stocks. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: staying the course and taking a long-term view is one of individual investors’ best ways of stacking the odds of investment success in their favor. According to Dalbar, over the past 20 years the S&P 500 has advanced 7.5% annually, yet the average investor has gained a mere 2.9% (barely beating the 2.1% inflation over the period). Why this underperformance? Partly because investors let their emotions get the best of them and chase the latest investment fad (or they pile into equities at market peaks and sell out at market troughs)—or sell for nonfundamental reasons, such as simply because a company’s share price (or an index) has increased in value.

By contrast, taking a multiyear view tilts the odds of success in investors’ favor. Since 1950, the range of stock market returns measured by the S&P 500 (using data supplied by JP Morgan) in any given year has been from +47% to -39%. For any given 5-year period, however, that range is +28% to -3%—and for any given 20-year period, it is +17% to +6%. In short, since 1950, there has never been a 20-year period when investors did not make at least 6% per year in the stock market. Although past performance is certainly no guarantee of future returns, history shows that the longer the time frame you give yourself, the better your chances of earning a satisfactory return.

As always, we’re available to answer any questions you might have. If you’d like to discuss these issues further, please reach out to us at jboyar@boyarvaluegroup.com or 212-995-8300.

Best regards,

Mark A. Boyar

Jonathan I. Boyar

Boyar Value Group

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 2:01 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

AIMA And ITN – Holding Strong: Alternative Investments In A Volatile Market

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 19:34

The Alternative Investment Management Association premieres a new programme in partnership with ITN Productions – Holding Strong: Alternative Investments in a Volatile Market

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Holding Strong: Raising Awareness Of Alternative Investments

The Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) and ITN Productions are collaborating to raise awareness of alternative investments and the latest sector innovations that are benefitting investors, markets and supporting the global economic recovery.

In the face of unprecedented global disruption arising from the Coronavirus pandemic, assets under management for the alternative investment industry continues to break new records with funds under management standing at US$15 trillion globally; approximately 15% of the world’s asset management industry.

Hedge funds are the face of alternative investments in public markets. The 12 months after the initial period of COVID-fuelled market disruption saw the industry report solid returns with leading hedge fund indices up over 32%[1]. Strong performance has continued into this year with the industry up 13% as of the end of August [2]. This performance has not gone unnoticed by investors who are reinforcing their interest in alternative investments, investing in both public and private markets as they seek diversification away from low-interest rate bonds and high-value equities.

Anchored by ITN productions, ‘Holding Strong – Alternative Investments in a Volatile Market’ shows how the alternatives investment industry is growing in influence, highlighting its increasing value to investors, markets and the global economy.

ITN presenter Belle Donati is joined by Jack Inglis CEO of AIMA, the global representative for the alternative investment industry, to discuss how the alternative investment industry benefits investors and supports the global economy, where he sees the industry heading as well as AIMA’s quest to educate the broader industry on the importance of alternative investments.

Produced in a news-style format featuring interviews with industry leaders, the programme features a series of sponsored editorial profiles filmed on location with AIMA’s global members and partners, including some of the most prominent names across the alternatives investment sector.

[The full, hour-long programme was premiered as part of the AIMA Global Investor Forum on 13 October 2021. The interview with AIMA’s CEO, an educational animation, and the editorial profiles can all be viewed separately and on-demand at AIMA.org]

The Programme's Themes

Among the many themes this programme explores includes the rise of responsible investing, which is examined from several angles. Apex Group quantifies how the ESG market continues to mature and become more defined, while abrdn explains how it’s investing responsibly in real assets to deliver positive outcomes that benefit its clients, society and the wider world.

Taking a global viewpoint, Reed Smith examines how the pandemic has accelerated the global focus on sustainability, and Esmo Asset Management highlights the complexities of apply ESG in emerging markets where each country and region is uniquely vulnerable to E, S and G factors.

Complementing these discussions, haysmacintye addresses how the industry is fostering diversity and inclusion to attract the next generation of talent.

Elsewhere, Man Group CEO Luke Ellis talks about the group’s growth and resilience during what he described as a “challenging environment” in 2020. We find out where this resilience comes from and how it is manifesting across the industry. In a similar vein, Citco offers an insight into the technologies that are driving the alternative investment industry forward, making it more transparent and accessible, while Securis Investment Partners details the latest innovations in the insurance-linked securities market in recent years.

Jack Inglis, CEO of AIMA, said: “The alternative investment industry has doubled in size over the past 10 years with most projections stating it will grow further in size and influence. The benefits of investing in alternatives are increasingly clear across the world, providing investors with much-needed diversity in their investment options, benefitting them and the global economy. We’re delighted to be able to work with ITN productions to highlight the benefits of the alternative investment industry and showcase its crucial role in protecting savers and financing the economy

Tom Kehoe, global head of research and communications at AIMA, added: “It has been a real pleasure to work with ITN productions on this programme. AIMA is the global representative of the alternatives investment industry, and I am very pleased that we are been a part of this coproduction to share real-life examples as to how the industry continues to grow in influence making a positive impact at a local and global level. Many thanks to all the programme’s participants who shared their stories with us.”

Nina Harrison-Bell, head of ITN Productions Industry News, said: “We’re delighted to be producing a programme that raises awareness of alternative investments, de-mystifies the myth that alternative investments are exclusive to the mega-rich and recognises the sector’s role in aiding economic recovery.”

To view the full programme click here.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 1:34 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Groove Raises $45M Series B Funding Round Led by Viking Global Investors

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 19:14

Sales engagement platform has grown enterprise ARR 114% year over year

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Groove Raises $45 Million Series B Round

SAN FRANCISCO - October 14, 2021 - Groove, the leading sales engagement platform for enterprises using Salesforce, today announced that it has raised a $45 million Series B round of funding, led by Viking Global Investors. Existing investors Capital One Ventures, Level Equity, Quest Venture Partners, and Uncork Capital also participated in the round. Groove plans to use the funding to expand its international operations and accelerate its momentum in the enterprise segment of the market, having grown enterprise ARR 114% in the past twelve months with new customers that include Activision, iHeartMedia, LexisNexis, New Relic, TIBCO, Veeva, and Wintrust.

The global shift to digital selling as a result of the pandemic is driving convergence in two of the fastest-growing sales technology categories: sales engagement and revenue operations. As enterprises look to manage large and distributed revenue teams, they are seeking platforms that integrate the productivity benefits of workflow automation with the insights gleaned through revenue operations software.

Digital selling has also exposed a key weakness in most companies’ Salesforce deployments - lack of adoption. In fact, an August 2021 Forrester Consulting “State of CRM” study, commissioned by Salesforce, found that 57% of respondents struggled to maintain good customer experiences because their CRM systems were not well-integrated or accessible. Groove solves this accessibility problem by meeting sellers where they already work, increasing rep productivity while ensuring over 90% Salesforce adoption.

“This notion of the sales engagement platform as a cockpit for sellers is likely to continue to drive further integrations between other sales tech categories and these platforms as the advantages of bringing everything to the seller where they sell (the original vision for CRM technology) become more widely recognized,” said Anthony McPartlin, Principal Analyst for Forrester Research in a recent blog post.

Industry-Leading Seller Adoption Rates

Groove is the only sales engagement platform that integrates seamlessly into existing seller workflows, driving up usage and Salesforce adoption as a result. Groove’s industry-leading seller adoption rates enable enterprises to leverage complete and comprehensive data to run a more accurate, predictive, and effective GTM process.

“Our enterprise customers want to enable the modern seller while ensuring the highest levels of enterprise security and compliance,” said Chris Rothstein, co-founder, and CEO of Groove. “We’re capturing a significant amount of enterprise market share from our competition because our platform was built for the needs of large, complex organizations that rely on Salesforce as their system of record. We bring automation to the seller instead of requiring that they work out of a separate system. This flexibility ensures extremely high user adoption rates, even with technology averse sellers in non-tech industries.”

Over the last year, Groove has expanded its revenue intelligence capabilities with auto-contact capture, real-time opportunity and pipeline management and enhanced ROI reporting. Through this expanded capability set, Groove enables revenue leaders to make real-time, data-driven business decisions based on sales engagement outcomes across a wide variety of roles, teams, and divisions.

“Our sales operations have been transformed because of Groove,” said Matthew Mullin, Senior Director of Global Marketing Operations and Technology at Tenable. “Our sellers are armed with productivity tools and workflow automation that makes them more effective at their jobs, and we can now rely on accurate, real-time data in Salesforce to make informed decisions.”

Groove won the TrustRadius “Best Of” Awards in 2021 for best usability, feature set, and best customer service in the sales engagement category, and has been the highest-rated sales engagement platform on G2 for three years in a row.

About Groove

Groove is the leading sales engagement platform for enterprises using Salesforce. Built for the needs of relationship-based sellers, Groove increases rep productivity, drives Salesforce adoption, and provides revenue leaders with key insights to know what’s driving their business. Because Groove is Salesforce native, it has the most advanced activity capture in the industry, ensuring that revenue teams can rely on accurate reporting and forecasting, lowered compliance risk, and streamlined administration. Whether it’s automating CRM data entry or empowering reps to generate pipeline and close more deals, Groove gives reps 20% of their week back to focus on high-value activities.

Over 70,000 people use Groove at some of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies, including Google, BBVA, Atlassian, Uber, and Capital One. Groove has ranked #1 in customer satisfaction on G2 in five sales technology categories and has made the Inc. 5000 list of the fastest-growing privately held companies in the U.S. for three years in a row. To learn more, visit https://groove.co.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 1:14 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

The Fed Has Completed Its Unemployment Mandate

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 18:59

In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on the unemployment mandate, Louis Navellier wrote:

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Bullish Investors

We survey our investors, who are predominantly retail, to assess sentiment. Results from our survey on Tuesday show retail investors are bullish. While there are many crosscurrents in the markets which could provoke pessimism, the survey suggests that investors are buoyed by the prospect of a robust earnings season. Another sentiment that emerged was that wage increases, though additive to inflation, are a net positive to consumer spending.

Bearish investors on the other hand cited inflation fears as the primary driver of their cautiousness. That more investors were uncertain about the direction of the market, 15%, than were bearish, 10%, is notable and indicates the see-saw action we are seeing in the market at large may continue.

Unemployment Mandate Complete

The Labor Department on Thursday announced that weekly unemployment claims fell to 293,000 in the latest week. Economists were expecting weekly and continuing unemployment claims to come in at 320,000. I think it is safe to conclude that the Fed has completed its unemployment mandate and can now turn its attention to another mandate, namely fighting inflation.

Taiwan Is Safe

I get a lot of questions about what is going to happen when China takes over Taiwan after tormenting the island nation an untold number of times with the Chinese air force invading Taiwanese airspace. My standard answer is that “China will not harm Taiwan’s infrastructure, since they need the semiconductor chips too!” This was reconfirmed by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he recently called for a “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan. Not surprisingly, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that Taiwan would not bow to Chinese pressure.

China currently has its own economic problems and based on the official Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI), both its service and manufacturing sectors are now in a recession. Furthermore, the Trump Administration’s sanctions on 5G pioneer Huawei have been severely hurt by these sanctions, so its 5G market share is shrinking.

Since the Biden Administration did not lift modify the Trump Administration’s tariffs on China, if China invaded Taiwan, they not only risk a military reprisal but also potentially more tariffs from the Biden Administration. So conclusion, Taiwanese semiconductor companies, especially United Microelectronics (UMC), remain great near-term buys since I do not expect China to invade Taiwan.

As inflation continues to heat up and push China and other nations deeper into recession, the U.S. remains an oasis to the world. The port bottlenecks and supply chain glitches persist, but at least the U.S. is not expected to be crippled by high coal and natural gas prices that are now hindering China and Europe.

Heard & Notable

Facebook removed or flagged 31.5 million content pieces containing hate speech in the second quarter, a 25% increase compared to the first quarter number of 25.2 million. Five out of every 10,000 content pieces containing hate speech slipped past Facebook's flagging and deletion processes. Source: Statista

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 1:01 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

BlackRock Passes Motion To Change Name Of Company to ‘Rock’ To Be More Inclusive

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 18:40

BlackRock has just passed a motion to rebrand the name of the company, they will no longer be known as BlackRock, effective immediately they will be known as just ‘rock.’

[soros]

Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disclaimer: This is a satirical article.

Rock’s Attempt To Appease The Millennials

“Rock has a long history, and unfortunately our history goes back to a time where people were not overlysenestive. So in an attempt to appease millennials to try to avoid them looking into our shady financial dealings, we have changed our name to ‘Rock’ this way no feelings can be hurt.” Rock CEO Larry Fink said in a statement.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson exploded on his national TV show calling this move the ‘biggest cocksucking ever seen on an national level.’

This post first appeared on The Stonk Market

Disclaimer: This is a satirical article.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 12:40 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

China’s Producer Price Index Reaches Record High Of 10.7%

Jue, 10/14/2021 - 18:27

“China’s Producer Price Index, which tracks what manufacturers charge wholesalers, is up 10.7%, which is the highest it’s been since they began recording in the mid-90s. China has been experiencing power shortages, and there is a global commodities rally, meaning it is costing manufacturers a lot more to produce goods. Currently it doesn’t seem this price inflation is being passed onto consumers but there’s only so long wholesalers can absorb these cost increases.

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Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Global Inflation Is Rising

Worth noting that inflation across the globe is rising – last week we saw interest rates in New Zealand rise for the first time in seven years in a measure to combat higher inflation. And we’re running ahead of target here in the UK too.

Inflation, trade issues and commodity prices are all weighing on markets this week. Apple shares slumped yesterday as the firm revealed the production of the iPhone 13 had been impacted by global computer chip shortages, but on the other hand you have the backdrop of commodity companies – oil and gas firms – that are riding high thanks to low supply and high demand. Highest risers on the FTSE today are natural resources and mining firms Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta and BHP.”

Article by Emma Wall, Head of Investment Analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown

About Hargreaves Lansdown

Over 1.64 million clients trust us with £135.5 billion (as at 30 June 2021), making us the UK’s largest digital wealth management service. More than 98% of client activity is done through our digital channels and over 600,000 access our mobile app each month.

Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 12:27 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Gold: The General Left Alone

Lun, 08/16/2021 - 16:19

Gold commanded its unit to make another raid only to find itself stranded. The gold miners had already fled as fugitives, retreating without orders.

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Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Gold Miners

While gold shrugged off the Aug. 8 ‘flash crash’ and bounced back above its June lows, the yellow metal’s renewed sense of swagger hasn’t been mimicked by its precious metals peers. For example, while gold ended the week up by 0.86%, the GDXJ ETF (our short position) ended the week down by 1.72%.

Please see below:

Furthermore, while gold jumped by roughly $15 last week, the HUI Index declined by five index points. And with the bearish underperformance often a precursor to profound medium-term drawdowns, the precious metals are behaving like its 2012-2013. Last week is yet another confirmation of the analogy.

Case in point: after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff.

Please see below:

To explain, can you see the HUI’s rally at the end of 2012 that followed a small buy signal from the stochastic indicator? I marked it with a purple, dashed line. No? That’s because it’s been practically nonexistent. The HUI Index moved higher by so little that it’s impossible to see it from the long-term point of view. On top of that, with the shape of gold’s recent price action, its RSI, and its MACD indicators all mirroring the bearish signals that we witnessed back in December 2012, the current setup signals that we’re likely headed for a similar swoon.

For context, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:

(…) gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for the gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.

And why is this quote so important? Well, because the bearish phenomenon still remains intact. As mentioned, with gold rising by roughly $15 and the HUI Index declining by about five index points, the bearish underperformance is accelerating. Precisely, something similar happened during the week beginning on July 6. The gold price rallied by $27.40, and the HUI Index declined by 1.39. As a result, with the HUI Index’s ominous signals still present, if history rhymes (as it tends to), medium-term support will likely materialize in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.

In addition, the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.

Nonetheless, bearish head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.

Furthermore, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.

As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:

If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.
If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.

In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.

As further evidence, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the senior miners (GDX) are in the midst of forming an ominous bear flag and the volume that accompanied Friday’s (Aug. 13) corrective upswing was relatively weak and it declined while the flag pattern was formed – just as it should if the formation was valid.

Conversely, the GDX ETF did invalidate the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern (which is a bullish sign). However, the GDXJ ETF did not. And with the junior miners’ initial plunge (the pole) implying a continuation of the downtrend (following a consolidation that forms the flag), there are more indicators weighing down the gold miners than lifting them up.

Please see below:

Wave the Flag! The Bear Flag!

Speaking of the GDXJ ETF, not only are the junior miners lagging behind their senior counterparts, but the four-hour chart provides a clear visual of the initial breakdown and the formation of the current bear flag.

Please see below:

The flag is perfect, and it took place on relatively declining volume, suggesting that another move will also be to the downside. After all, the moves that follow flags tend to be similar to the ones that preceded them.

The price levels at which the flag was formed are also very important, and it’s clearer on the daily chart.

Junior miners broke below the previous 2021 lows, and they held this breakdown, even though gold rallied quite visibly last week. This serves as a great confirmation that the move lower is about to take place.

And how should we expect the climax to unfold? Last week, I wrote the following:

Well, the GDXJ ETF may consolidate in the short term, but lower lows are still likely, and initial support should materialize at roughly $37 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Thereafter, a short-term corrective upswing should follow before the GDXJ ETF reverses course once again and records its final bottom near the end of the year – at much, much lower price levels. All in all, it seems that our profits on the GDXJ (short position in it) are going to become MUCH bigger before this decline is over.

The above remains up-to-date. In fact, we already saw the short-term consolidation last week, so the decline could resume any day now.

In conclusion, the gold miners’ continued underperformance of the yellow metal is akin to a fire alarm signaling an impending blaze. And while many investors have forged through the smoke in 2021 and suffered a loss of breath in the process, our medium-term forecast does not change our outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks over the long term. With the trio underpinned by robust long-term fundamentals and their medium-term drawdowns likely to elicit secular buying opportunities, we’re confident that the precious metals will remain atop investors’ wish lists for years to come.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Updated on Aug 16, 2021, 10:19 am

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Google Pixel Fold Could Be Launched In The Fall

Lun, 08/16/2021 - 15:42

Google – Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL) – is likely to launch its Google Pixel Fold this fall, according to tech gossip. The model could be a foldable version of the upcoming Pixel 6.

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Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Google Pixel Fold

The folding mobile segment is going through an energetic period as rumors spread about Google’s foldable model. The phone –whose launch is anticipated this year as early as fall– would join the likes of Xiaomi Corp (OTCMKTS:XIACF) and Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI).

As matters develop and information about the Google Pixel Fold leaks, the company’s first folding phone could become the great showcase of Android 12, the new version of the operating system that is touted as one of the most revolutionary in recent years.

The reality is that the beta codes of Android 12 –Oriole, Raven, Passport, and Slider– have revealed the existence of such a phone. The first two are known to be the new Google Pixel 6 and Pixel 6 Pro that are lined up for launch this fall, while the Passport is actually the long-anticipated folding model.

The Google Pixel Fold could make use of the Tensor chipset of its Pixel 6 brothers. According to TechRadar, “This chipset is designed to speed up AI and machine learning processes, which could benefit the cameras, speech recognition, and more.”

“It also has the most layers of hardware security in any phone.”

More Details

Should the Pixel Fold sport this chipset, “there’s a good chance it could have the same cameras as the Pixel 6 or the Pixel 6 Pro as well, given that this chipset is tuned to make the most of those snappers.”

Folding technology is not cheap, but the Google Pixel usually comes out at a better price than other high-end devices, bearing in mind that it is not as equipped as its rivals.

In terms of design, there is news coming from several sources that Google has ordered 7.6-inch OLED screens from Samsung.

It would be the same size as the screen of the Z Fold 2, so the Pixel Fold could be opened in the same way, as having a book in hand, to reveal the Tablet-style screen so typical of these models.

Google is part of the Entrepreneur Index, which tracks 60 of the largest publicly traded companies managed by their founders or their founders’ families.

Updated on Aug 16, 2021, 9:42 am

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Japan’s Economy Recovered Ahead Of The Olympics

Lun, 08/16/2021 - 15:36

According to preliminary data, Japan’s economy bounced back from the pandemic crash faster and beyond expectations before the Tokyo Olympics. The country’s economy expanded at twice the rate forecast between April and June.

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Japan's Economy Recovery

However, as reported by BBC, analysts “have warned growth will be modest this quarter after a state of emergency was reimposed to ease a spike in COVID-19 infections.”

During the second quarter this year statistics show that Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an annualized 1.3%, from a 3.7% decline three months prior.

“The latest figures were far better than the expected gain of 0.7% and came as spending by individuals and businesses bounced back from the initial impact of the coronavirus.”

However, Japan's recovery lags when compared to that of the U.S., which showed a 6.5% increase in the second quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, “new data also shows that the economic recovery of its larger neighbor, China, is losing steam.”

The underlying element of Japan’s slow recovery is the pandemic. The government is struggling to contain the rapid expansion of the virus, as Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said, “our priority is to prevent the spread of the virus. It's very bad for the economy for this situation to drag on.”

Mixed Results

The economic growth of the second quarter of this year is mainly due to the 7.3% increase in household consumption, the main pillar of Japanese GDP, which had been suffering from successive sanitary alerts.

“I have very mixed feelings about this GDP result,” Nishimura said. By the end of 2020, Japan's economy had contracted by nearly 4.8% over the year, which meant its first shrinkage in more than 10 years.

Growing exports drove the country’s comeback from the pandemic, but the sluggish rollout of its vaccination program “and a series of state of emergency measures have hurt consumption.”

The spread of the Delta variant in neighboring Asian markets has created supply chain disruptions, affecting Japanese manufacturers. Experts predict that this could throw a spanner into recovering production output and affect exports.

“It is the latest sign that the recovery of the world's second-largest economy is losing steam as export growth cools and new Covid-19 outbreaks disrupt business,” BBC reports.

Updated on Aug 16, 2021, 9:36 am

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

No, You Aren’t Getting Surprise Coronavirus Stimulus Check Of $7000 On Aug. 19

Lun, 08/16/2021 - 15:28

You may have recently come across a report claiming Congress has approved another round of stimulus checks amounting to as much as $7,000. This claim of a surprise coronavirus stimulus check, however, is completely false.

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Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Report Of Surprise Coronavirus Stimulus Check Is Untrue

A recent report claimed that Congress had approved another round of stimulus checks of up to $7,000. Further, the report also claimed that the checks would start hitting the bank accounts of eligible recipients from August 19.

Such claims, however, are false. Neither Congress nor the White House has approved any new stimulus checks as of now. Following the report, a large spike was seen in internet searches for related phrases, such as "$7,000 stimulus checks."

It is recommended that people not fall for such rumors as there has been no official news regarding a fourth stimulus check. Moreover, it is very unlikely that Congress will approve another round of stimulus checks now.

This is not the first time there have been rumors related to Congress approving another round of stimulus checks. For instance, last month, several Facebook posts claimed that Congress approved a fourth stimulus check of up to $2,500 and eligible recipients would start getting the payment from July 30.

The comments on these posts showed that many people believed the posts, while some soon found that it was a joke. One of the links on the post sent users to a photo of a gorilla.

Why More Stimulus Checks Are Unlikely?

Since the start of the pandemic last year, Congress has approved three rounds of stimulus checks. The first round was approved in March last year and it promised up to $1,200 to eligible recipients, while the second round came in December last year, giving up to $600 to tax payers.

Most recently, Congress approved the stimulus checks in March 2021 under the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act. The plan gave up to $1,400 to single filers. Along with the stimulus checks, the American Rescue Plan also expanded the child tax credit payment.

The expanded CTC payment gives half the credit in six monthly installments from July through December, and the other half next year at the time of filing the tax return. So far, the IRS has sent two installments of the expanded child tax credit, i.e. of July and August.

All such payments, along with improving jobs numbers, make another round of stimulus very unlikely. Many people, however, still want Congress to send at least one more stimulus check.

A change-org petition requesting Congress to approve more stimulus checks has already gotten over 2.8 million signatures. The petition, which is aiming for 3 million signatures, wants Congress to send regular payments of $2,000 until the pandemic ends. Despite such requests, the chances of another round of stimulus checks are very slim.

Updated on Aug 16, 2021, 9:28 am

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Seismic Acquires Lessonly, Delivering to Customers the World’s Most Powerful, Comprehensive Sales Enablement Platform

Lun, 08/16/2021 - 15:00

In conjunction with the acquisition, Seismic closed a $170 million Series G funding round; Seismic now valued at approximately $3 billion

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Seismic Acquires Lessonly

SAN DIEGO (August 16, 2021) — Seismic, the global leader in sales enablement, today announced it has acquired Lessonly, the training, coaching, and enablement solution, to deliver the world’s most powerful and comprehensive sales enablement platform. In conjunction with this acquisition, Seismic also announced the close of its Series G funding round of $170 million, with participation from Permira, JMI Equity, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Jackson Square Ventures, Ameriprise, and funds and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. The latest funding brings Seismic’s valuation to $3 billion and will be used to continue expanding Seismic’s platform, R&D, and global footprint.

With the acquisition of Lessonly, the Seismic platform now provides a seamless seller experience where sellers can quickly and easily access sales and marketing content alongside learning programs, practice scenarios, and coaching plans in one central location. This combined solution will play an instrumental role enabling teams to increase productivity, consistently beat quota, and build long-lasting relationships with customers.

“Over the past few years, Lessonly has become a close strategic partner and we have forged strong ties across our teams, complementary capabilities, and joint customers,” said Doug Winter, co-founder and CEO, Seismic. “Together, we are a stronger and smarter sales enablement platform — the only one that gives sales leaders the confidence they’ll hit their numbers, and ensures all sellers are able to engage with customers in the most effective way possible throughout their buyers’ journeys.”

Along with a unified seller experience, leaders can take advantage of the new combined data and analytics capabilities to track lesson usage, analyze training trends, and identify the content leveraged by top performers to close the most deals.

Comment From Lessonly CEO

“We are delighted to join Seismic,” said Max Yoder, CEO, Lessonly, and author of Do Better Work. “During the past decade at Lessonly, we have focused on building a training, coaching, and enablement solution that brings out the very best in people and helps them deliver inspired work. In partnership with Seismic, we look forward to transforming the entire enablement industry. Our respective teams and customers are going to see big gains as a result of this deal, as will the city of Indianapolis.”

More than 1,200 companies rely on Lessonly to deliver meaningful training, coaching and enablement. Lessonly is highly regarded by industry analysts and customers, and was recently named a Leader in several G2 Grid Reports for Summer 2021, including Sales Training and Onboarding, Sales Coaching, Corporate Learning Management Systems, and Course Authoring Software. Since its founding in 2012, the Indianapolis-based company has served nearly four million learners worldwide.

For more information about Seismic’s acquisition of Lessonly, visit Seismic’s Blog.

About Seismic

Seismic is the global leader in enablement, helping make sales teams better by becoming more productive and engaging with buyers in a compelling way. Seismic’s platform provides continuous guidance to improve behavior, content, and skills to win more deals and deliver better experiences. Nearly 2,000 organizations including IBM and American Express have made Seismic their enablement platform of choice. Seismic integrates with business-critical platforms including Microsoft, Salesforce, Google and Adobe. Seismic is headquartered in San Diego, with offices across North America, Europe, and Australia.

To learn more, visit Seismic.com and follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter and Instagram.

About Lessonly

Lessonly is a powerfully simple training, coaching, and enablement solution that helps teams ramp faster, deliver effective feedback, and continuously improve. Lessonly is currently empowering nearly four million learners at more than 1,200 leading companies including Scholastic, Jostens, and U.S. Cellular to share knowledge, develop skills, and reinforce best practices. The results? Higher NPS scores, more deals closed, and a superior customer experience. To learn more about Lessonly, visit www.lessonly.com.

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

These Are The Top Ten Mid-Cap Blend Mutual Funds

Dom, 08/15/2021 - 17:30

Investing in blend funds is a smart strategy as they aim for value appreciation through capital gains. In addition to offering diversification benefits, such funds are perfect for investors looking for a combination of growth and value investment. Mid-cap blend funds are very popular among investors. Such funds usually invest in medium-sized companies where neither value nor growth characteristics dominate. Generally, these funds invest in U.S. companies having a market capitalization between $1 billion and $8 billion. Let’s take a look at the top ten mid-cap blend mutual funds.

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Top Ten Mid-Cap Blend Mutual Funds

We have used the past return numbers from U.S. News to rank the top ten mid-cap blend mutual funds.

Meridian Contrarian Fund (MFCAX, 66%)

MFCAX invests in stocks it believes are undervalued in comparison to their asset value, long-term earnings power or the stock market in general. It has earned a return of over 5% in the last three months and more than 16% in the last three years. This fund has more than $723 million in total assets. MFCAX’s top three holdings are Treehouse Foods, Acadia Healthcare and Welbilt.

Destinations Small-Mid Cap Equity Fund (DSMFX, 66%)

DSMFX aims for long-term capital appreciation. This fund invests in a range of securities, including common or preferred stock, bonds or debentures, and more. It has earned a return of over 6% in the last three months and more than 18% in the last three years. This fund has more than $1.3 billion in total assets. DSMFX’s top three holdings are iShares Russell 2000 ETF, NXP Semiconductors and Global Payments.

CRM Small/Mid Cap Value Fund (CRMAX, 68%)

CRMAX’s objective is to ensure long-term capital appreciation of investors’ funds. This fund refers to the Russell 2500 Value Index and/or the S&P Mid Cap 400 Value Index to select its investments. It has earned a return of over 7% in the last three months and more than 14% in the last three years. This fund has more than $199 million in total assets. CRMAX’s top three holdings are American Financial Group, G-III Apparel Group and Valmont Industries.

The Texas Fund (BIGTX, 68%)

BIGTX aims for long-term capital appreciation. This fund uses a number of factors such as industry position, financial conditions, and market and economic conditions to select its investments. It has earned a return of over 4% in the last three months and more than 9% in the last three years. This fund has more than $14 million in total assets. BIGTX’s top three holdings are Texas Pacific Land, XPEL and Digital Turbine.

Seven Canyons Strategic Income Fund (WASIX, 70%)

WASIX’s primary objective is current income, while long-term growth of capital is its secondary objective. This fund primarily invests in income-producing domestic and foreign securities. It has earned a return of over 16% in the last three months and more than 14% in the last three years. This fund has more than $39 million in total assets. WASIX’s top three holdings are Arrow Global Group, Future and iEnergizer.

Thompson MidCap Fund (THPMX, 76%)

THPMX seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in securities from mid-size firms. Its equity investments may be in common stocks, ADRs and real estate investment trusts (REITs). It has earned a return of over 5% in the last three months and more than 13% in the last three years. This fund has more than $62 million in total assets. THPMX’s top three holdings are Alliance Data Systems, First Horizon and LKQ.

Tarkio Fund (TARKX, 82%)

TARKX aims for the long-term growth of capital. In addition to common stock, this fund may also invest in fixed income securities and securities from foreign issuers. It has earned a return of over 3% in the last three months and more than 18% in the last three years. This fund has more than $161 million in total assets. TARKX’s top three holdings are Cognex, The St. Joe and The Container Store Group.

Hennessy Cornerstone Mid Cap 30 Fund (HFMDX, 84%)

HFMDX seeks long-term growth of capital. This fund uses the Cornerstone Mid Cap 30 Formula to pick stocks, buying 30 stocks weighted equally by dollar amount. It has earned a return of over 2% in the last three months and more than 13% in the last three years. This fund has more than $403 million in total assets. HFMDX’s top three holdings are Vista Outdoor, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions and Valmont Industries.

Miller Opportunity Trust (LGOAX, 87%)

LGOAX’s objective is to ensure long-term growth of capital. This fund uses a flexible strategy to select investments and can use varying investment styles or asset classes. It has earned a return of over 4% in the last three months and more than 22% in the last three years. This fund has more than $2.73 billion in total assets. LGOAX’s top three holdings are DXC Technology, Farfetch (Class A) and Teva Pharmaceutical.

Hodges Fund (HDPMX, 99%)

HPDMX aims for long-term capital appreciation. This fund may also take up short-sale transactions using 25% of its net assets and could invest in money market instruments as well. It has earned a return of over 9% in the last three months and more than 12% in the last three years. This fund has more than $238 million in total assets. HPDMX’s top three holdings are Texas Pacific Land, Luby's and Cleveland-Cliffs.

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

1 In 3 Young Adults In NJ Have Moved Back In With Their Parents

Vie, 08/13/2021 - 22:46

A third of young adults in NJ have ‘boomeranged’ back to their parent’s homes over the past year, poll finds.

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The Boomerang Generation

‘Boomerangers’... ‘Going Nowhere Generation’... ‘Growing Ups’... ‘Failed Fledglings’... Whichever term you choose to associate with the rise in adult kids moving back in with their parents, it has led to significant changes in living arrangements for everyone involved. Whether it’s a result of the red hot real estate market, the pandemic-hit economy, or simply a desire to save money by moving back home, many parents whose kids have boomeranged have had to alter their retirement plans and finances in line with having a full nest again.

A survey of 3,500 by ISoldMyHouse.com has revealed that over 1 in 3 young adults (35%; 18-35) in NJ have moved back in with their parents over the past year - compared to a national average of 36%. And aside from free housing, the research found that 16% have received financial support from their parents.

Some parents may hope that this current boomerang generation represents a temporary pandemic-bolstered blip, likely to resolve itself as restrictions are eased and the economy expands. However, the reality is that the pandemic amplified a trend that has been on the rise over the last few decades. Indeed, sustainable economic independence has been steadily receding and fewer young adults are getting married.

The average rent for homes increased 7.9% over the past year. In some urban areas, the surge has climbed as high as 12%. This is a result of urban renters in pursuit of more living space (possibly brought on by spending months on end in their homes during lockdown), a well as ongoing pressure from ageing millennials. In fact this represents the largest spike in rent for single-family homes in nearly 15 years. Moreover, house prices have increased 26% over the past year, diminishing any hopes of getting onto the property ladder.

Is This Trend Good Or Bad?

Whether this growing boomerang trend is a good or a bad thing depends to a certain degree on who you are asking. Is moving back in with parents a sign of failure, or a shrewd financial move designed to put young adults in a better position when they finally fly the coop? According to the survey, moving back in with parents is a prudent move – a whopping 2 in 3 (72%) ‘boomerangers’ feel this is the case!

However, on the other side of the coin, the point of view is more opaque… The survey revealed that many parents are not overly enthusiastic about the situation – 27% of parents in the Garden State say they feel burdened by having to house their non-rent paying tenants. This is perhaps unsurprising – 15% say they have had to delay retirement plans in order to support their adult children. Moreover, 1 in 3 parents who had previous intentions to downsize the family home, are now unable to do so. In fact, over 1 in 5 (22%) say they are considering upscaling in order to accommodate them.

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“Although moving back in with parents can be seen as a step backwards,” says Kris Lippi of ISoldMyHouse.com, “looking at it from a sociological point of view, what has happened is entirely predictable - this generation of young adults have been priced out of the real estate market in a way that their parents never were, and many have lost their jobs due to the pandemic. If moving back in with parents helps young people’s mental and financial health, then it has to be a positive thing to do."

Updated on Aug 13, 2021, 4:46 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

The 10-Year Treasury’s Successful Retest of 1.12%

Vie, 08/13/2021 - 22:45

In his Weekend Reading Notes to investors, while commenting on the 10-year Treasury yields, Louis Navellier wrote:

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The drama last week was not so much in the stock market as in the 10-year Treasury yields, when they dropped like a rock to 1.12%, then rose sharply on better-than-expected economic data to touch 1.30%.

Will 10-Year Treasury Yields Continue To Rise?

The question now is: Will they continue to rise, or head back towards 1%?

The way the stock market has been trading in 2021, we’ve seen the so-called reflation trade, dubbed more crudely as “value” – the financials, energy, and industrials – liking the higher Treasury yields, while the technology trade tends to outperform when Treasury yields are subdued or at least not rising quickly.

If the Delta Covid variant turns out to be a problem – and so far, the issues are big only in states with low vaccination rates – then 10-year Treasury yields will likely fall again. Then we have the Lambda variant, and we will likely see other mutations that we have not even discovered (or named) yet.

If people are vaccinated and the virus burns itself out, it will stop mutating; but most of the world is far behind the United States and other developed countries, so my guess is that Covid is far from burning itself out. That means there are likely more twists and turns coming in the coronavirus drama.

The most bullish thing for the stock market that the bond market can do is for the 10-year rate to stay above 1.3% (roughly the vicinity of its 200-day moving average). The most bearish thing for the stock market that the bond market can do is for 10-year Treasury yields to fall straight back down and take out the low of 1.12%. That would mean that the pandemic is not under control (globally) and economic problems from it will continue to plague the stock market.

This week’s trading will give us a lot of clues as to what the bond market is about to do. For Treasury yields to head straight back down to 1% or below would mean that we have an economic problem.

Bitcoin is Also at Major Resistance Levels

The impressive 50% or so rebound since breaking $30,000 conclusively puts bitcoin right under its 200-day moving average, where most of the trading has occurred since mid-May. That level is also near the neckline of a major head-and-shoulders top that broke in May, putting it at a major resistance area.

When it comes to any “support” and “resistance” levels, the key point to note is that they are not precise points, but more like “areas.” The most bearish thing bitcoin can do now is to take out $30,000. I think that’s coming, as regulation against bitcoin and taxation plans in Congress are coming, since Democrats are furious at the inability to collect capital gains taxes on bitcoin transactions. Since they need the money for their spending plans, it’s a safe bet that more regulation and taxation are coming.

Then we have China’s digital yuan push and crackdown against bitcoin, which may very well intensify as the digital yuan is launched. We also had Cathie Wood, Elon Musk, and some other bitcoin aficionados going to a bitcoin conference to express their bitcoin enthusiasm, which caused a violent rally. This, coupled with major exchanges reducing margin loans, caused a rather virulent short squeeze rally.

To me, it looks like a short squeeze rally right into a major resistance area. I think bitcoin will fail here and decline below $30,000.

Updated on Aug 13, 2021, 4:45 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

Three-Year Anniversary Of Elon Musk’s ‘Funding Secured’ Tweet

Vie, 08/13/2021 - 20:51

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing the three-year anniversary of Elon Musk’s ‘funding secured’ tweet; 100 biggest companies in the world; Freedom Holding Corp (NASDAQ:FRHC): the red flag factory in belize.

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Elon Musk's 'Funding Secured' Tweet

1) Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk posted his infamous "funding secured" tweet three years ago this week:

Of course, he didn't have funding secured, so he got in a lot of hot water with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission – but no matter: TSLA shares are up nearly 10 times since then.

While I would have given 100-to-1 odds against this outcome, at least I had the good sense to recognize that this open-ended situation was a bad short (as I said then – and continue to say)...

100 Biggest Companies In The World

2) A hat tip to VisualCapitalist for this interesting graphic of the world's 100 biggest companies in 2021 by market cap, showing country and industry:

Freedom Holding: The Red Flag Factory In Belize

3) In my January 5 e-mail, I wrote:

My friend Roddy Boyd at the Foundation for Financial Journalism recently exposed one of the most obvious promotions I've seen in quite some time – which has a $3 billion market cap! Freedom Holding: After 'Borat,' the Silliest Kazakh Import of the Century.

Since then, it's even clearer that the company is a promotion at best and fraud at worst, yet the stock is up 30%. Here's Roddy with an update: Freedom Holding: The Red Flag Factory in Belize. Excerpt:

Freedom Holding has some explaining to do.

The financial services firm has quite improbably become one of the fastest growing companies on the planet. It lists its shares on the Nasdaq, is incorporated in Las Vegas, but for all intents and purposes runs its operations mostly in Kazakhstan.

As a December investigation by the Foundation for Financial Journalism showed, Freedom Holding's ballooning profits have resulted from baffling and opaque business practices that its management is not keen to discuss.

Among the arrangements is Freedom Holding's close connection to FFIN Brokerage Services, a Belize-based securities trading firm owned by Timur Turlov. He also is Freedom Holding's billionaire founder and majority shareholder.

Even the most seasoned investor has probably not witnessed related-party transactions of the scope of FFIN's dealings with Freedom Holding.

Last year more than 56% of Freedom Holding's revenue came from FFIN commission payments, and in 2019 they represented over 65%. What Freedom Holding does to earn the commissions is not readily apparent, however. Yet the two companies are so intertwined – Freedom Holding's senior managers use FFIN email accounts – it's not clear the two companies are separate in any real sense.

Let me get this straight... This is a business incorporated in Las Vegas, headquartered in Kazakhstan, which earns the majority of its revenue in commissions from a Belize-based securities trading firm, and earns most of its profits from a unit in Cyprus...

How is this even allowed to trade on a U.S. exchange?

Best regards,

Whitney

P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.

Updated on Aug 13, 2021, 2:51 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

The Importance Of Investing For Retirement As Early As Possible

Vie, 08/13/2021 - 20:37

At the beginning of the 21st century most young people are told that social security won’t be there for them when they retire from the work force. Thus, in order to be able to completely retire from the workforce, a person has to invest as early as possible in order to take full advantage of the power of compounding.

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The Benefit Of Investing For Retirement Early

Let’s follow the story of Erica and John. They both grew up on the same street in the same city. Their mothers gave birth to them at almost the same time. Erica and John went to the same high-school, after which their paths separated. They lost contact with each other for the next 40 years, at which point they found each other on Facebook, and met to reminiscence their childhood and talk about grandkids.

They quickly started talking about their retirement and the amount of money they had each had at the time of their retirement. John, who always saved the extra money he earned from jobs at college and his first job after college, started investing $2000/year in dividend stocks starting at the age of 18 and kept saving and investing the same amount until he was 28. At that point he had so many expenses in order to pay for the needs of his growing family that he couldn’t save anymore. Despite the fact that John couldn’t contribute any more to fund his retirement, he was very good at picking solid dividend growth stocks, and was able to generate annual returns of 10% for the next four decades.

Erica on the other hand had decided that she didn’t want to work in college since she wanted to concentrate on her studies while also enjoying the whole college experience. She then decided to go ahead and get a masters degree after which she was able to get a very good job with one of the largest companies in the USA. She did accumulate a large amount of student debt in the process, which she diligently paid off in a record time after she got her first job. After learning about the importance of saving for your own retirement, she started investing $2000/year in dividend stocks, and was able to also generate 10% in annual returns.

We then fast forward to the age of 65. At age of 65, John's net worth is 1,192,257.81. Erica's networth is $728,086.87 at the age of 65.

Despite the fact that John had invested only $20,000 in total, versus $76,000 that Erica had invested, he was able to achieve a higher amount of wealth because he had taken a full advantage of the power of compounding by investing his hard earned money as early as his freshman year in college. Even though Erica contributed money for over 37 years her nest egg was $400,000 lower than John’s, because she had ten years less to utilize the power of compounding. You could also access the spreadsheet from here.

The most important point from this exercise is: start investing for your retirement as early as possible! Ask your kids to invest their first paychecks from high school jobs. And most importantly, let the money compound uninterruptedly for as long as possible. And if you want to take full advantage of compounding, Turbo Charge Your Portfolio With Reinvested Dividends.

Relevant Articles:

Article by Dividend Growth Investor

Updated on Aug 13, 2021, 2:37 pm

Categorías: Blogs y opiniones de economia en ingles

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