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Históricamente, se sabe que en 1626 el imperio español desplazó una flota de buques de guerra desde Manila al extremo norte de Taiwán y estableció una pequeña colonia llamada Formosa Española. El Fuerte de San Salvador fue construido allí para contrarrestar el poder holandés en el sur de Taiwán y para salvaguardar los intereses españoles en la ruta marítima entre la provincia china de Fujian y Filipinas. Sin embargo, el imperio de España en Taiwán, después de varios años de lucha, cedió ante el mayor poder de los holandeses en la isla y abandonó Taiwán en 1642, entregando el fuerte a sus enemigos.

Según se cuenta en el documental, los españoles, además de su interés por el comercio marítimo, promovían el catolicismo desde la Península Ibérica hacia Asia. Así lo prueban por ejemplo el descubrimiento de la base de la pared de piedra de una iglesia y de una Cruz de Caravaca partida.

A juicio de la profesora de la Universidad de Cantabria, Mª Cruz Berrocal, que dirige el equipo español que participa en las investigaciones arqueológicas, la presencia de tal símbolo de origen español atestigua que en la zona habría un cementerio católico.

Pero a medida que han ido avanzando las investigaciones y se han ido desenterrando restos en la Isla Heping, se ha descubierto que la zona hay reliquias mucho más antiguas y anteriores a la llegada de los españoles, y que se remontan incluso a la prehistoria.

Debido seguramente a su excelente ubicación geográfica, los marineros que navegaban por las costa de China y de Japón fácilmente se fijaron en unas montañas redondeadas, a las que entonces llamaron “Gallinero” debido a su semejanza con las jaulas que se utilizaban para guardar gallinas. El lugar se convirtió en un identificador muy importante para la ruta que debían seguir.

Refiriéndose a la Isla Heping, la profesora Berrocal habla del “primer registro de la globalización”, porque en la zona, que bien puede identificarse como “el lugar más internacional de Taiwán”, hay huellas dejadas no solo por españoles, sino por personas procedentes de todos los continentes.

Emociona ver en el documental cómo son los propios habitantes de la Isla Heping quienes participan directamente en las excavaciones y en la recogida y limpieza de restos, y cómo así se han convertido en protagonistas de un proyecto conducente a redescubrir su propia historia.

Let’s admit it, the financial industry pays investment professionals quite well and this is one reason why so many young people are attracted to the profession. It isn’t necessarily a passion for markets and investments and more the ability to make lots of money. Especially in bull markets these two things can very quickly become mixed up in the mind of young professionals. But in a bull market, it is easy to make money. It is only when things go wrong that you start to see who is really passionate and who is just trying to make money.

And you don’t need to wait until a bear market comes along to see who is passionate about markets. So many things can and do go wrong in investing that on an individual basis, things can go wrong for you but not others all the time. 2013 was my annus horribilis because I was long gold and short equities in a year when gold prices collapsed by 25% and the S&P 500 was up 25% over the same time. Not a good feeling, but by far not the only time I was wrong, just the most prominent one.

During such periods of disappointment, it is key to stay engaged and work on your performance, but this is when so many people who aren’t in it with their heart and soul tend to mentally check out or give up. And I don’t blame them. I had to learn to remain engaged myself over many years and even in 2013 when I had more than 10 years of professional experience as an investor, I got the occasional feeling of hopelessness. I had to force myself to change my approach to investing and learn from my mistakes. This learning process is hard. It takes something that not many people have: grit. Grit, or the ability to work hard and long towards a goal is a vital ingredient if you want to be a successful investor.

In my case, the hard work was to admit my mistakes and learn how to change my investment process to not make the same mistake again. 2013 was the year when I started to take stop losses and momentum seriously because one thing that cost me a lot of performance was that I clung to my investment positions for too long despite the market going against me. Temperamentally, I was never inclined to follow simple momentum strategies. I was trained as a value investor and am a natural contrarian. Momentum investing or the use of stop losses are both antithetical to these investment approaches. It took a lot of hard work and frustration to change my investment process to include momentum and stop losses into it, but it eventually paid out. My performance has become much better since then. 

But had I not been passionate about markets I might not have put up the hard work, but just stuck to my old ways. The next time I was sitting on a losing investment, I might not have cut my losses but let them run and this may have cost me dearly once again. And this is what grit does for you. It helps you not make the same mistake again and again but instead forces you to learn to cut your losses and move on.

Interestingly, this can be shown in lab experiments as William Bazley and his colleagues have done. They recruited a group of volunteers and split them into two groups. Half of all participants were randomly selected and asked to recall an instance in their life when they had to work hard to achieve something that they could be proud of. After this recall of a situation where they showed grit, they were asked to perform a few typical lab experiments to determine their disposition effect, i.e. their tendency to sell winners too soon and hold on to losing investments for too long. After the investment tasks were all done, they were asked to rate their personal grittiness to check if they were still in a mindset that was influenced by a notion of hard work. 

Meanwhile, the other half of the participants did no exercise in recalling past episodes of grit but engaged right away in the investment tasks.

The result was interesting. Comparing the people who were primed to think about grit and hard work did not hold on to their winning investments longer than people who weren’t primed to do so. But thinking about grit led to investors realising their losses faster and more frequently. Because they were primed to think about hard work, they were more likely to overcome the painful feeling of having to admit to themselves that they have been wrong. The result: In the lab experiment, the investors who were primed to think about grit ended up with 7% higher wealth at the end of the experiment than the control group. 

In other words, grit made them better investors by keeping them engaged in the face of adversity and avoiding bigger losses than necessary.

Propensity to sell winners and losers when primed about grit

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Source: Bazley et al. (2021)

Rethinking supply chains for the electric era

Sólo un 5% de los trabajadores se jubila después de la edad legal para el retiro: 66 años. Leer

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False optimism is the new religion. Today's Kool-Aid dispensing cult leaders of denial are its false prophets...

As far as doom porn it doesn't get any better than this summer from climate change hell. It's a denialist paradise. The same people who have decided they are more intelligent than the entire healthcare profession are likewise ignoring the worst wildfires and droughts in history while partying like it's 1929 in the summer of COVID liberation. 

Things are so bad on the environment I am not sure whether to continue blaming the hairless monkey or blame God for creating such a miscreant species. I'm on the fence right now. Until I see this Roman Circus explode in every direction, my faith will be tested.

From the center view I take exception with both the left and the right for their own uniquely selfish view of this bastardized economy. Help wanted signs abound in blue states and red states alike, giving lie to the alt-right view that Biden's unemployment program - now defunct in all red states is at the center of this unemployment disaster. There are many reasons that the underpaid and overworked hospitality sector is now struggling to meet the needs of a country on vacation, not the least of which is the fact that foreign workers still have not been able to return to this country. It's a year without Mexicans and come to find out the problem isn't that they are "taking all the jobs", the problem is that they aren't taking ANY jobs. And that is a recipe for disaster for the true believers in this system of mass exploitation. Why? Because $15 per hour which was once viewed as a generous minimum wage for foreign born immigrants is now looking like the poverty-inducing stipend it represents to the U.S.-born population. Certainly in no way enough to entice the millions off the sidelines from their newfound COVID-induced "retirement". 

It gets worse, because now the work-from-home liberals are using this Delta variant as an excuse to NEVER return to the office, as company after company now moves back their planned office re-opening. Stay tuned for future events because CNN will ratchet up the COVID pandemonium to meet the needs of their pampered work from home audience who require validation for their self-serving virus hysteria.

I have to come down on the side of commonsense on this matter of perpetual hysteria. Would this continuing "crisis" really exist if the economic impacts were falling upon all parts of society equally? If the 401k monetary hyper bubble millionaires counting their riches from home were equally impacted by this ongoing saga, would they be so willing to throw the economy under the bus? Of course not. They love the virtual economy.

Which is why all signs point back to the Grand Casino, because until it explodes, no one will be on the same page. And instead we will have this denialist paradise which is now human history's biggest global Ponzi scheme. And linked to it is a massively leveraged way of life that has the carbon footprint of an extinction level event.

Which gets us back to markets. Last week, lost amid all of the FOMC hoopla, all of the economic data came in weaker than expected. Which is why this week bond yields are beginning to roll over again:

Picture this chart in a global RISK OFF scenario:

Banks are carving out the same top as last year, pre-pandemic:

Last week's new S&P high was attended by a miniscule number of NYSE new highs:

There were two Hindenburg Omens on the Nasdaq in the past six trading days (Fri. June 23rd, and Mon. June 26th). Here we see Nasdaq breadth is three wave corrective:

 

In summary, this is an extinction level event for true believers in bullshit.

 

Episode #336: Startup Series – Hugh Thomas, Ugly Drinks, “This Is The Result Of Two 23-Year Olds In A Pub In London Having A Couple Of Beers”                 Guest: Hugh Thomas is the co-founder and CEO of Ugly Drinks. Use code UGLYMEB for 20% off your order.  Date […]

The post Episode #336: Startup Series – Hugh Thomas, Ugly Drinks, “This Is The Result Of Two 23-Year Olds In A Pub In London Having A Couple Of Beers” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog.

El nivel más bajo alcanzado por el indicador es el -0,505% que registró en enero de 2021. Leer

We saw an 8% Allianz share price drop today, should you be worried? In this article I'll briefly explain what happened and share my thoughts with you.

The post Allianz share price drop explained appeared first on European Dividend Growth Investor.

Shopify, Inc. (SHOP) saw positive growth over the past fifteen months and significantly outperformed the S&P 500, rising by approximately 283.6% as of July 30, 2021, compared to the S&P’s gain of about 36.8%. Shopify achieved a rank of thirteen on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap as of March 31, 2021, up from its previous rank of twenty-one.

Shopify is a global company specializing in commerce infrastructure, providing an e-commerce platform and tools for online stores and retail point-of-sale (POS) systems. Shopify earns subscription fees through customers using its SHOP platform to set up a store online and market and sell their products. Shopify’s merchant customers may also sell in physical locations by using the Shopify POS application.

While the company briefly saw growth slow in early 2020 due to worldwide pandemic-related shutdowns, the business quickly rebounded. Consumers’ habits shifted heavily towards online shopping during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. That momentum remained even after government restrictions lessened and physical retail space reopened. Convenience and newly established routines are likely reasons why many consumers have not returned to pre-pandemic shopping habits.

Hedge Funds Remain Bullish

Hedge funds have been bullish on the stock, and institutions are also buying. The aggregate 13F shares held by hedge funds increased to about 26.7 million from 22.8 million in the first quarter, a change of approximately 17.1%. Of the hedge funds, 45 created new positions, 103 added to an existing holding, 30 exited, and 81 reduced their stakes. Overall, institutions were buying and increased their aggregate holdings by about 3.0% to approximately 73.9 million from 71.7 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Positive Multi-year Figures

Analysts expect to see earnings rise modestly in 2021 and 2022 to an estimated $6.52 per share and $6.59 per share, respectively. Revenue estimates are encouraging, increasing to approximately $4.6 billion predicted for December 2021 and $6.2 billion for December 2022. The 13F metrics between 2015 and 2021 demonstrate that Shopify’s investment potential remains on an upward trend.

(WhaleWisdom)

Strong Financial Results

Shopify realized second-quarter solid results, with subscription solutions revenue up 70% year-over-year to approximately $334.2 million. Consumers are still spending, and Shopify reported that they built on the momentum by making significant updates to their platform infrastructure, growing their portfolio, and expanding strategic partnerships. The company saw an increase in merchants joining its platform. Existing merchants could also extract more significant benefits from Shopify’s e-commerce platform and tools.

Positive Outlook

Overall, there is a positive outlook for ongoing demand for Shopify’s commerce services. Shopify benefited from pandemic lockdowns and consumer shifts to online shopping and continues to see increased demand and more robust digital commerce trends than in pre-pandemic days. Shopify’s impressive 2021 earnings to date and future revenue estimates should be appealing factors for investors.

La ausencia de público en los Juegos Olímpicos de Tokio está teniendo efectos dispares en los atletas. Leer

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Today’s Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Vinovest Listen here On today’s show we talk about:  The investment case for wine How bottles are chosen Drinking your investment, and much more Links About Vinovest Q1_Report Vinovest 100 index Charts Contact us at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, recommendations, or questions. Follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. Check out o...

The post Animal Spirits: Investing in Wine appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

In November, COP26 will be the highlight of the year in terms of climate policy. The goal is to commit to further reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the harmful effects of climate change. In the first half of this year, we have already seen several nations (most prominently the US) commit to more ambitious reduction targets.

And throughout this year, investors who cared to pay attention could hardly take a break between all the announcements of companies committing to becoming net-zero by 2030, 2050, or any other year. This is good news, but the problem may lie in the three letters ‘n’, ‘e’, and ‘t’. Implicit in these net-zero goals is that one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions removed from the atmosphere counts as much as one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions released. In other words, the underlying assumption is that the climate is a linear function of the amount of greenhouse gases contained in it. 

This linearity may hold on the margin when we are talking about one person driving his or her car and emitting a couple of tons of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. But on a global scale, we are emitting thousands of tonnes every year and at that scale, it is unknown, if the reaction of the climate to greenhouse gas emissions is still linear.

In fact, a new article in Nature Climate Change hints that this might be a major flaw in our climate targets and in the actions taken to mitigate climate change. Using a climate model of medium complexity, the researchers looked at the reaction to shocks of different sizes and the long-term change in CO2 levels. It turned out that adding 100Gt of CO2 to the atmosphere has a bigger effect than removing 100Gt of CO2. The net effect is roughly 3% for a 100Gt shock but increases to 18% for a 500Gt shock. The chart below shows the difference in long-term CO2 concentrations for a 200Gt addition and a 200Gt reduction in CO2 as well as the net effect between the two which is slightly positive.

Effect of 200Gt shocks of CO2 to the atmosphere

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Source: Zickfeld et al. (2021)

I know, every forecast is only as good as the model used to make it and these are model forecasts, but there might be good reasons for this asymmetric response. For example, we know that with higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, trees and other plants grow faster and thus remove more CO2 from the atmosphere. But this CO2 fertilisation effect is nonlinear and declines for higher CO2 concentrations. If you have ever dealt with plants you know that fertilising them will help them grow, but above a certain level, more fertiliser just doesn’t give you any added benefits and if you increase the dosage even more, you might kill the plant. The same is true for CO2.

Also, the oceans are able to store enormous amounts of excess CO2 from the atmosphere. But this ability to absorb CO2 declines as the earth’s temperature and CO2 concentration rise. 

In summary, once we hit certain thresholds, we move beyond the famous tipping points and then need to extract even more CO2 from the atmosphere to reverse climate change than if we had never emitted this CO2 in the first place. 

As I said, so far all we have are model predictions, but if they are correct (and even the most rudimentary climate models from the 1980s have been able to predict CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to a precision of 1% to 2% as we now know) then we might need to aim for even more ambitious goals than becoming net zero in 2050.

Iran’s new president is greeted with a crisis over attacks on shipping. But he may not mind

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Los partidos independentistas parece que no quieren dialogar, sino imponer su relato. Leer

Los separatistas y la izquierda populista, incluso dentro del Gobierno, utilizan los casos de Don Juan Carlos para minar la monarquía. Leer

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